Then a country that is collapsing and in response lashing out at dick cheney. Its very close to home. Also in my continuing quest to remind you of the good news about the world out there, two special guests. Swedish professor hans rosling will dazzle you with charts that show a very different world than youve been led to believe you live in. One of bill clintons favorite experts will tell you about the amazing technological advances that are changing the world for the better. But first here is my take. Israeli Prime MinisterBenjamin Netanyahus speech to the United States congress was eloquent, moving and intelligent in identifying the problems with the potential nuclear deal with iran. But when describing the alternative to it, he entered never neverland, painting a scenario utterly divorced from rye aelt. Congress joined him on his fantasy ride, rapturously applauding as he spun out one unattainable demand after another. Netanyahu declared that washington should reject the current deal, demand that iran dismantle almost its entire Nuclear Program, and commit never to restart it. In the world according to bibi, chinese, russians, europeans will cheer, tighten sanctions and increase pressure which would then lead iran to capitulate. Dreams do come true, if only we wish hard enough, says peter pan. We actually have some history that can inform us on the more likely course. Between 2003 and 2005, under another practical president , mohammed khatami, iran negotiated with three European Union powers a possible deal to place Irans Nuclear program under constraints and inspections. The chief nuclear neglect itser at the time was hassan rowhani, now irans president. Iran proposed to cap its centrifuges at very low levels keep enrichment levels well below those that could be utsed for weapons, and convert its existing enriched uranium into fuel rods which could not be put to military use. Peter jenkins, the british representative to the International Atomic agency said, all of us were impressed by the proposal. The talks collapsed because the bush administration, acting through the british government, vetoed it. It was certain, jenkins explained, that if the west could scare the iranians, they would give in. Well, what was the result . Did iran return to the table and capitulate . No. The country withstood the sanctions and now unimpeded by any inspections massively expanded its nuclear infrastructure. Iran went from 164 centrifuges to 19,000 accumulated over 17,000 pounds of enriched uranium gas and ramped up construction of a heavy water reactor at iraq, thats one that can be used to produce weapons grade plutonium. Harvard university graham allison, one of the countrys mother most experts on nuclear matters, pointed out that by insisting on max mallist deplandz and rejecting potential agreements the first of which would have limited iran to 164 centrifuges, weve seen iran advance from ten years away from producing a bomb to only months. Netanyahu worries with this deal ten years from now, iran might restart some elements of its program. But without the deal, in ten years iran would likely have 50,000 centrifuges, a massive stockpile of highly enriched uranium, new facilities, thousands of experienced Nuclear Scientists and technicians and a fully functioning heavy water reactor that can produce plutonium. At that point what will bibi do . For almost 25 years now, netanyahu argued iran was on the verge of producing a nuclear weapon. So why have bibis predictions been proved wrong for 25 years . A small part of it has been western and israeli sabotage. But even the most exaggerated claims by intelligence agencies would not account for a delay of more than a few years. The larger part is probably that iran has always recognized that were it to build a bomb, it would face Huge International consequences. In other words, mullahs have calculated, correctly in my view, the benefits of breakout are not worth the cost. The key to any agreement with iran is keep the cost of breakout high and the benefits low. This is the most realistic path to keep iran from becoming a Nuclear Weapons state. Not party pan dreams. For more go to cnn. Com fareed and read my Washington Post column this week. Lets get started. For more on Irans Nuclear ambitions and Prime Ministers netanyahus speech to congress and much more i have a terrific panel joining me today. Annemarie slaughter, policy Planning State Department in president obamas first term. Shes now president and ceo of the think tank new america. Joseph nye, former assistant secretary of defense, former dean of the Kennedy School of government former professor of mine and long time professor at harvard university. Hes the author of the new book is the American Century over . Brett stephens is a Pulitzer Prize winning columnist for the wall street journal, and and Peter Beinart is a political commentator. Imagine that bibi gets his wish that the deal is rejected by the United States. What do you think would be the reaction of europeans, chinese, the russians. When you were director of policy planning, these were your counterparts. You were dealing with them. Whats their attitude . I think thats the worst outcome, theres no deal. Its because of the United States. Because at that point, this coalition that we have pretty miraculously kept together, even the chinese and russians and europeans to keep sanctions on iran, that coalition will fall apart. It will be seen that there was a deal, that the deal was imperfect but much better than no deal, that the United States at the behest of israel blocked that deal. At that point our competitors, other nations will lift their sanctions and were going to be stuck with ours and with the ability of the iranian government to continue progressing toward a nuclear weapon. No zero hour in diplomacy. There was attempted negotiations in 2009 again in wr 1010, 12. If this deal falls through at some point people will regroup and rethink. The best thing that can happen quite frankly, now that oil is worth half as much as it was when these negotiations began is that you can renew the kinds of serious economic pressure on the iranians that will make them rethink this. By the way, i think this deal suffers from this tremendous detect of the sunset provision. Telling the iranians that in ten years theyre free and clear when it comes to building any kind of nuclear there was never going to be a permanent deal in perpetuity. This began with discussion of 20 years, even generations. Ten years is literally the goalpost retreated and west keeps moving towards iranian position. Goalposts have moved precisely because we have not been willing to agree to a deal that would freeze it where it was. They have gotten steadily closer to getting a nuclear weapon, more centrifuges, enriched uranium. If we dont get a deal, theres nothing to stop them. By the time we go to next round of negotiations, they will be even closer. Whether Oil Prices Stay low or stay strong there is not the appetite for massive economic pressure on other countries not as ideologically as us more dependent on iranian oil. To imagine we can get not just back to this coalition but to a much Stronger Coalition and we will be able to retard the progress iran has made in the interim i dont know anyone that studies either iranian politics or Global Politics visavis other major powers in the world thinks thats possible. Joe, what do you think is the likelihood of these sanctions being able to stay in any event. Sanctions notoriously get leaky after a while. They will get leaky. If a deal falls through and its regarded as our fault or israels fault, i think theyre not just going to leak. The boat is going to sink. Because the countries will openly say were not enforcing this. Yes. I think the key question for bret, and id be interested in his reaction, if you really thought that low oil prices and a hope for continuation of sanctions would get you to zero centrifuges, then i think go along with that. Do you think thats really plausible . Were going to hold that thought because we are going to take a break and Bret Stephens is going to answer joe nyes question when we get back. I am totally blind. I lost my sight in afghanistan but it doesnt hold me back. I go through periods where its hard to sleep at night and stay awake during the day. Non24 is a circadian rhythm disorder that affects up to 70 of people who are totally blind. Talk to your doctor about your symptoms and learn more by calling 8448442424. Or visit my24info. Com. I have great credit. How do you know . Duh. Try credit karma. Its free and you can see what your score is right now. I just got my free credit score credit karma. Really free. Were back with annemarie slaughter, joe sif nye, Brett Stephens and Peter Beinart. For the handful of people who did not sit through the commercial. The question i was posing for brett and it is a serious question, not a setup of any sort is do you think you can, under the pressure of low oil prices and sanctions, which may be leaky, but were hoping some will hold. Do you think you can get to a situation where the iranians will really go towards zero centrifuges . Yes. Let me throw in a few facts. Iranian program is not 36 years old. It was started by the shaw of iran under american prodding. It is a nationalistic program. A new poll showed the Nuclear Program in iran is popular. It withstood the sanctions. It still withstood the iraq war. It only stopped in 2003 because of the coincidence of the high point of American Power around the serious threat that the regime faced. Basically they found themselves put to the choice have a Nuclear Program or keep the regime. When the choices were that stark, they in fact moved. So were not going to topple the regime. They dont face that pressure. Were essentially either going to have for deal or a deal that stops things and is in a better position. Threat. Ing to topple the regime is the one insurance policy they could buy. You have to exact a price. This is a regime winning everywhere it looks throughout the middle east. Let me ask you about this. In your and Prime Minister netanyahus conception of iran there is this great paradox. Theyre winning everywhere gobbling up other countries but actually on the verge of collapse because of Lower Oil Prices and sanctions. How can both be true . They are economically vulnerable. Countries on the march can have general vulnerables. Right now vulnerability are they very strong or are they very weak . Economically vulnerable but at the same time they are playing their cards terrifically in taking advantage of an absence of american will to defend u. S. Interest in syria, yemen, and iraq. What do you think about reports, New York Times has a terrific one about the fact that the u. S. Is tacitly relying on iran to battle isis in iraq. Its not surprising at all. Iran and u. S. Have overlapping interests there. Part of what Benjamin Netanyahu was trying to say, isis is the moral equivalent of the regime in iran. Thats not true. The Iranian Regime is a very nasty, brutal ma lev eleventhelevolent regime. Its the country that has capacity to be a stable democracy. If it westbound isis there would not be 20,000 jews living in iran with functioning synagogues. We have much more in common both strategically with this government in iran than isis. I think this is one of netanyahus big problems. Most american dont believe iran and isis are similar threats to the u. S. They concede isis is of a different caliber. What about that point. You look at afghanistan, iran and the u. S. Have basically the same interests. Both dont like the taliban. If you look at iraq iraq and the United States have similar interests. Is it possible to go beyond the Nuclear Issue . Not a perfect one. I have a view middle east is going through the equivalent of europes 30year war. Youre seeing religious divisions, state divisions, nonstate groups all battling. Essentially in that kind of a situation, theres going to be a lot of fluidity in terms of what alliances, contemporarytemporary coalitions are going to happen. Were not going to run that any more than you can run french revolution to switch metaphors in the period after 1789. It takes two or three decades for these things to work themselves through. Will we be involved in one group and another group and the enemy of my enemy, i think yes. What do you make of the death murder of Boris Nemtsov. Is there anything to say about it . I think we are seeing what a brutal regime this is. A regime that i think is stripped more and more of any shred of legitimacy it faces, that it could have. I think that a lot comes down to whether youre basically an optimist or a pessimist. Critics of barack obama are generally pessimistic. They tend to see authoritarianism is on the march. The crucial divide between them and obama, i think obama is basically an optimist. I think he basically believes economic forces, forces of globalization will ultimately make a regime like putin not be able to sustain itself forever and certainly not be on the march. I think peters analysis is absolutely right and im a pessimist. Quite frankly part of the problem that we have with putin is that just as now were talking about nemtsov, six years ago or a few years talking about someone else so many opponents of the regime who met mysterious ends. That was time and again we regretted the murders, wondered about the motives of the murders. Then swept under the carpet for the sake of pragmatic relationship with russia. So these killings continue. I dont know who killed Boris Nemtsov but its just the case a lot of his political opponents come to untimely ends. I think whats happening with britain, with inquiry of murder of alexander lipvinenko. A starting point historical accountability for whats happening in modern russia. I think russians might be paying attention. As they start paying attention they will realize their enemy not in the west, their enemy in the kremlin. Theres actually good news in this story. Not obviously about nemtsov. Thats terrible. We dont know who did it. Certainly somebody friendly to putin. With that story obscured, was that demonstration that nemtsov was planning to attend, that became a memorial for him, what that shows you is that even at a time when putin is supposed to be at an alltime high when hes supposed to have support because of the war in ukraine and crimea hes once again actually facing significant demonstrations at home. Thats what hes terribly scared of. Can i just ask a question. Do you think we are now in a situation with russia where russia is not the soviet union, so its not really a cold war, but relationship between russia and the United States particularly in the west is just going to be adversarial . I think were in for a bad spell and its not just putin. I argue in my book russia is a country in serious decline. Its a onecrop economy, which has a tibl terrible demographic problem. Fewer and fewer russians. Its has a health problem. Average russian male dies at age 64, a decade earlier than other developed countries. With such rampant corruption, any attempt to reform it is blocked. This is a picture of a society in deep decline. The danger is that declining societies are often more dangerous than rising ones. If you ask me which is more dangerous, russia or china, i worry more about russia. Remember 100 years ago in the great war, as it was called it was austria hungary was the only major power that really wanted war. And thats because austria and hungary were in decline. On that sober note, thank you very much. Up next, theres an autocrat perhaps even more combative than putin and hes right in the United States own backyard. We will tell you who and why when we come back. In new york state, were reinventing how we do business so businesses can reinvent the world. From pharmaceuticals to 3d prototyping, biotech to clean energy. Whether your business is moving, expanding or just getting started. Only new york offers you zero taxes for 10 years with startup ny business incubators that Partner Companies with universities, and Venture Capital funding for high growth industries. See how new york can grow your business and create jobs. Visit ny. Gov business now for our what in the world segment. An autocratic strong man has gotten nasty with washington in recent weeks. He announced u. S. Embassy staff in his country must be cut back by over 80 . Hes banned some current and former u. S. Officials, george bush, dick cheney among them from entering his nation. Hes even said that hes had some americans arrested on suspicion of plotting a coup. No, were not talking about vladimir putin. Its someone much closer to home. Nicolas maduro. The president of venezuela. This week the president went further revealing an audio recording that maduro says links an american citizen to a plot to overthrow him. He wants this american ics extradited. The u. S. Has mocked such allegations as baseless. Why is he doing this . Simple. Hes collapsing and wants someone to blame or divert attention towards. Venezuelas economy is in shambles. Its inflation rate is now close to 70 . Higher than any other country in the world, by far, according to barclays. The bank says the countrys debt is even riskier than greek debt. The imf predicts the economy will plunge by 7 this year. Supermarket shelves are empty. Hospitals lack basic supplies. The terrible e