People can get married marriages trivialized and not as legitimate, and i am going to the marginalized and abstain from marriage . I am going to boycott marriage because gays are getting married . I think it changes what marriage is. Give it a couple years. We are going to have statistics in a couple years. There are 17 states. If all of a sudden you see a bunch of straight people are divorcing because of gay marriage, and it is on the form, reason for marriages going to be because i am protesting because of gay marriage, then i will agree with you. Until then, i am sticking to my fear he. Theory. Would it not dilute areas if we relegate it to a social contract . It is a social contract. If you are an atheist, what the hell is it . Its not a contract . I think it should be more than a contract. Have you heard pope francis on this stuff lately . Surely if the Catholic Church can shift a little its not shifting. Hes just using a different tone. I think the Catholic Church has shifted tremendously, not just on gay marriage but in general. I think it shows you what one person can do when they choose to lead, when they choose to stop being judgmental, and when they lead by example and they lead with love, not with judgment. We have got two more. Thank you for coming. You are involved in strategies and stuff, right . Losing ones. I really want to be in the winning campaign, you know. One where they drink. No more nondrinking candidates . I think last election there was a lot of focus on issues. I think one of the major reasons why obama won was because there because they were constantly saying, they are gay haters. They are antiwomen because they think abortion is wrong. They were just constantly pushing that. I dont think any of that is true. How do we move away from that . I am cuban, and communism is a bad idea. You going down a bad road. How do you get other hispanics to see that . How do you get them to actually look at the issues instead of being taken away taken in by we are going to take care of you . Had you get them to see those issues and not so much focus on what democrats are telling them . Man, you mr. Romney postelection comments. I dont think its a fair assessment. I dont think its a fair i hear what you are saying. Assessment to think the hispanics didnt vote for romney and voted for obama because they thought they were going to get something. If you think about the money invested, the microtargeting that the Obama Campaign did, mitt romney admitted he thinks one of his biggest problems is not investing enough in hispanic oneeach and hispanic media. Add of his biggest problem was not investing in hispanic outrage. There was nothing for him there. There was a point in the 2012 ,lection where hispanic voters latino voters were very angry with obama. Specific promise on immigration. Latino voters were very disillusioned. For latinos, our word is our bond. Word of honor. He broke it. You cannot gloss over it. Voters who were ready to run away from obama, we did not give them anywhere to run to. Where were they going to run to . The guy who was espousing self deportation . The guy who was hanging out with an offer author of an anti latino vote . If you look at the romney campaign, and i have stopped wanting to talk about it because after a lot of shock therapy, ive tried to forget it. [laughter] it almost seemed to me like they made a calculation that they could get a very low, 29 of the hispanic vote, and still win. If they got enough of the white vote out. They just ignored the hispanic vote. Rule number 12 winning votes is asking people to go. It is making the case. It is persuading people to be on your side. It is showing people that you can relate. Timeromney had a hard relating to white people. Imagine relating to us. Think i dont think i dont agree with your assessment that hispanics voted for obama because they would be given things. Personal,at is underestimating hispanics. And their thought process. It is not recognizing that frankly they did a better job Campaign Lies on micro targeting. Campaign wise on micro targeting. And he did a better job on seeking the vote. That is not how we win hispanic votes. By itspanic votes is not possible to do. Ago, george w. Bush won 44 of the hispanic vote. Any president who could win 44 the hispanic vote today would win. It is not possible to do. It requires a candidate Chris Christie just did it. He won 51 of the hispanic vote in new jersey. A blue state. He put money into it. He spent time on it. Alas events of the campaign was in new york city. It was in a heavily hispanic area. Bakeryat every hispanic in the state of new jersey. He made it a priority. It was a priority from day one. When he brings to the table is the fact that he can get, that he can increase the base. That he can get crossover voters. He needed to prove that he did. He made it a priority. The romney did not. Do not blame hispanics. Question, final question, would be that tonight youve talked a lot about what the Republican Party needs. You are saying that white men are not with they used to be. You touched on Chris Christie and what he did to appeal to the Republican Party and the hispanic vote. Think, in your opinion, could be the candidate to aing everyone back Republican Party in the white house. Im jaded and biased. He is my friend. I know him. I love him. He speaks beautiful spanish. I think the best candidate in the field is jeb bush. I think a sickly this election cycle, i am like a plus size mens store. Id either go in big or tall. If the tall guy does not take me to the prom, i am going with the big guy. Jed is bicultural. He is not just bilingual, he is by cultural bicultural. We would consider him hate hispanic. Give the game changer when it comes to the has anecdote. Hispanic vote. Been added his entire life. He is not pandering. This is what he has been working on his entire time. Voiceld bring a temporary to the debate. He is thoughtful. Temperate voice to the debate. He is thoughtful. He has a Broad International portfolio than what i think Chris Christie does. I do not know what his is. If Hillary Clinton were a candidate, that is going to matter. Is goinghink hillary to be the candidate, but i seem to be in the minority. I think jeb bush would be be best candidate to change it. The question is, looking at that picture of george w. Bush, people say they do not want another bush. Their summary people who told me that. They think it is terrifically piers morgan asked no clinton, who would make a better president . Your wife or your daughter . Ok, so. The the bush name bush brand is rehabilitating, has rehabilitated, and will continue to rehabilitate. If george w doesnt get involved in politics, he will not be dragged into any political controversial issue. Anytime you hear or see the guy he is helping out a child with malaria in africa. Bushs health becomes more frail, people will remember what a good guy he was. He was the youngest navy pilot of his generation. He was a member of the greatest generation. There are going to be issues with it. There will certainly be issues. People ask, should we have three of the same family in the white house . Think that the apparent contrast between jeb and his brother and his father to a lesser extent was actually benefited jeb bush. A lot of people do not know jeb bush. When you hear jeb bush, his level of thoughtfulness, the intellect, substance. People tend to be quite impressed. I was with him last night at the y. I think he won over the elderly, jewish, it republican vote of the Upper East Side of manhattan. I think there is a path. I see a path for a jeb or a Chris Christie. A governor is a much better candidate than a senator or somebody else. I am a pulp . I am a paul ryan fan. But the stench of dysfunction that emanates from washington right now, it is hard to disguise and shake off. Chris christies record and jebs record would stand up for scrutiny from republican conservatives. I may not agree follow that, but it is hard to argue that jeb bush did not govern as a conservative in his eight years in florida. He did not raise taxes once. I think he would be a terrific candidate. I think he seriously is thinking about it. He is intrigued by it. He is a very disciplined guy. I do not think he is going to seriously think about it and make a decision until next year. Next summer. Maybe a little bit later than that. Around that summer. Boys love to see his voice and the baby part of it. I think you bring so much to the table. He will not be afraid to say what he feels he needs to say. Jeb bush has been out of power , what . Ce i try to forget the following years and the rick scott years. Jeb has been out of power for six years, and no, seven years. And he is still relevant. In the political debate. I would like to see him give it a shot. Im going bigger tall. Big or tall. [laughter] thank you very much. [applause] [applause] s correspondent david sanger. It was hosted by the asia society in the month of september. [applause] thank you. Thank you so much, tom for the wonderful introduction. [applause] we are privileged to be here with you today. [inaudible] [inaudible] we are having this conversation for 40 or 45 minutes, Something Like that, and then we will leave it up to all of you and all who are watching this on the internet and have a way of sending in their questions to the moderator. Those are supposed to magically appear on the ipad. If they do not, the questions have all been eliminated out there right off the bat. So i was on a panel recently with the head of the nsa chief alexander and before we sat down he said that i really dont like questioning this. [laughter] so lets start with tom rid. Mr. Thomas rid, you have come to a definition of what cyberwar is and is not. And i think that we all agree on this panel that we have seen gradation of cyberactivity and intellectual property and corporate secrets, state secrets, espionage that is cyberenabled and we see occasional cyberattacks on infrastructure, which is what happened in operation of the games and against Irans Nuclear program. We see denial of service attacks in an effort to bring down Banking Systems or freezing of the entire New York Times website, as was managed to do over the summer months. So for a good number of hours. And then, there is the overall cyberwar, which you described in these terms, and for those that i hear that did not have to suffer through this, which is near a thousand pages long. So its very good in new york for killing rats, but you use a very classic definition of cyberwar. So which of these will not occur . Espionage is happening, some infrastructure attacks are happening. Clearly denial of service attacks are happening. And what is it that you are saying what happened. First of all, i would like to specify that im actually not talking about the future in the spirit of the book is the opposite, looking at the records and the technical possibilities. And then i think we need to put this cyberwar debate into context. Many people use this and we are talking about the war on drugs and cancer and poverty and we are talking about the real thing at the same time. So im trying to do is to help distinguish, which can still be very serious, and the real thing. Executed with the help of a computer code and i need to meet three criteria. One is a could be violent or potentially violent. And it needs to be instrumental in terms of somebody trying to change someone else strategically, and it needs to be political in the sense that somebody takes credit and if you run those three criteria for all this cyberattacks that you have seen, they dont usually meet those criteria. So first of all, what is it . You mentioned this already, grouping those injured three different sections. Cybertalks, withdrawing a system from a system and only external computer attacks on the Industrial Control System and other attacks with Critical Infrastructure insiders and we are talking about very small numbers, as you mentioned. And the second is espionage or in childrens operations and commercial or political in nature and third we are talking about subversion activism, which in a separate problem is part of cybercrimes. I think each of those requires a separate discussion with sometimes an intensive duration. So im with you on all that except the part where you say that youre not trying to be predictive. Because the title of the book is cyberwar will not take place. Which sounds a little bit like the future. [laughter] go right ahead. Theoretically in french its about the trojan war and used in that example to encounter this. Okay. So chad, let me take this to you. You have heard tom rid, the doctors discussion of this. Just. But you dont get paid by your clients to worry about the past, you get paid to help them for the future. So if you sent them all copies of the book by doctor tom rid, they would stop paying you. [laughter] so you are concerned in the range of crime and subversion in espionage and sabotage and can you tell us at the far end of this, whether you see these types of attacks on infrastructure to be a one up for a were a wave of the future, and whether you think that it could fit with the definition of war, violent or potentially violent political war. Thank you. I would like to thank the asia society for having me and colombia here in new york and i went to the college and i live just down the street and got my International Relations degree and i appreciate the work that the asia society does. And i think that its great that we are having this discussion coming on the heels of tom donovans important address regarding our relationship, not only with asia but with china and the topics of cyber. I respect tremendously toms intellectual work and i have a lot of appreciation for the in depth analysis that he has been given an i would respectfully disagree, however, that the fundamental definition, that its intended to change behavior. By that definition, for example, if you think about the cia, when we used to do code in a number of things that we had to do to protect the United States that did not rise to the level of overt violence, nor did it we didnt claim credit for it than there were a lot of things that happen behind the scenes that would have constituted this in the art of war. And if you go to this as david alluded to earlier, war is politics by another means. So i would have a slight definitional difference. But the second thing that ive asked to think about by the many terrorist attacks are taking place in some of them are claimed and some of them are not and we just saw today what may be viewed as a violent terrorist event, we dont know what the multiple individuals involved and tom izzo got ahead of that investigation. That certainly in the boston bombing initially, it was not the initial claim of responsibility, but clearly a terrorist attack and in my view, we can define this as war is politics by another means and then certainly terrorist attacks are the poor mans way of conflicting with their desired outcome on another power. And if we go to the issue that david has pointed out, i would tell you that that is an exact example, if you define violence or credit and it would not have qualified as an act of war, because nobody had claimed credit for that. And depending on how you define this, you can define it as killing people or worse in that respect, and violence can simply mean destruction of property or systems as well according to this definition. On the question of whether or not this would become a tool of the future, at the beginning tom said that this is where cyberwar is coming, that was very much a quote like paul revere. My position will be not only is it wrong, but its happening every day around the world and we will go through many more examples tonight to discuss it. And i think that cyberwar is happening or cyberconflict is happening. Then we can talk about this, so much of it is directed at china and i want to be very clear of this. And this is the single most important act of the nation and the national will to serve and what happened with this attack, it essentially happened, what happened was the society was attacked and the iranians believed that they were collaborating with other powers to stop their nuclear program, which david wrote about at that time. And essentially extracted the retribution or the physical disruption of over 30,000 computers, which now it literally destroys the system and blinded the values of the millions of records that are all reserved and it would be the equivalent of just your core source of National Strength and it was an act of war and it was done by the iranians and i think its a great example of this. Before i go on, let me just please circle back to doctor tom rid and say, okay. And to examples that we subscribe to, in the Olympic Games and the centrifuges are made to blow up, you have probably seen the photographs of these giant floortoceiling devices with supersonic speeds. When they blow up, its like setting a bomb off and you dont want to be standing next to him and to this day, we dont know if anyone was killed or not. And then you heard about chad describing the attack on saudi arabia. Neither one of those bigger definition. And i think we need to be more honest about this and we have real problems with this. And what im saying is that we need a concept and Real Solutions for the problems and when we are talking war all the time and violence all the time, we are getting close to what needs to be done. And we want to discuss the possibility of the specific acts and we need to get a little bit more technical about it. Yes, we can come back to that. Okay, so you are in the Foreign Service and about seven years. Okay. And we are not, tonight, we are not going to ask you to explain Chinese Foreign policy. Thats certainly what its like in america. [laughter] to all the better reason. Okay. But we are going to ask you to explain why it is that the u. S. Government gets so worried about technology built by companies not just Huawei Technologies. And your concern is the following that if you bring a piece of equipment and they basically make the skeletons backbone of the internet in a way, and you bring an it in f