Thanks very much for coming to this event for a discussion of north korea boom or bust. Dropout, we have a 30 rate for attendance. I think today we had a 30 increase in attendance. I think that is a true to our speakers and the issue at hand, which is one of the top Security Issues facing not just the United States, but the world. Of a dialoguepart where we seek to address and shed light on the issues that come up. The dialogue is a gathering of defense ministers around the region and in other countries. There is one asian defense minister who will not be there. That is the north korean. I tried many times to get the north koreans to come and it has been a failure every time i have as an area toew improve on. Lets get serious about north korea. We have four Renowned Experts to address aspects of the north startingsue should at the sis cs is. Hes also a director of Asian Studies at georgetown university. From 20042007 he served as director for Asian Affairs at the white house. Heat is a he is a longtime member and contributor. Nationals the deputy Intelligence Officer for east asia at the National Intelligence council. Before that, she served as director for korea, japan, and Oceanic Affairs at the Security Council. Earlier, she worked at the cia. I met her at a conference in philadelphia where i was impressed with her presentation. Thanks for coming. He is a professor at the Catholic University of america. He served in several advisory positions in the korean government including communication, preparation, and the ministry of unification. We met eight years ago and our paths have crossed several times since then. Elamin basedael here in washington. Before i hired him in 2009, he spent five years supporting the previously he spent 18 months at the United Nations for weapons inspections. The event will run for an hour and a half following remarks by each of the panelists. We will have a discussion portion and then turn it over to questions for you. This event is on the record and cspan onecast by and cspan radio. Eventually a video will be posted. Because of the cspan broadcast, we have actualize here which asked to the heat in the room and unfortunately, today, the airconditioning chose to go out for the entire building in the room is packed with people so im going to encourage everyone to feel free to take off one layer of clothing. Encourage the panelists to do that as well. If you see us sweating, it is not because we are worried about north korea. Victor, lets start off with some thoughts from you. Victor it is a pleasure to be here. Mark neglected to mention how we first met. You probably dont remember. Mark i remember. Victor i was doing my phd dissertation in looking for people to interview for my thesis in when you are roaming the streets of tokyo, you are grateful and remember the ones who said yes. Mark was one of the two people who had said yes at the time and the other was bill mckinney. Im always grateful for that. Korea, a greatth bust. Boom or if any of you have been paying attention to the news, you will notice an uptick in coverage of north korea largely because of missile testing activity. Some of you may look at this and say we have seen them do this before. Cyclical coverage of every time they decide to but there is a qualitative difference today in terms of what has happened in the past. If we start from some of the basic metrics. , so for about007 17 years, north korea did 17 Ballistic Missile tests. 2008 from today, i they have done 73 or 74 for nuclearsts and tests. So there has been a change in the amount they have been doing. In the past, there was a theory callshington, d. C. And thend universities that purpose of north koreas testing was that it was essentially a desire to have negotiations with the outside world and in particular, the United States. North korea, the poor and isolated country. It has the largest country on its border, russia on its border. United States Military is in the south and directly across the border is a very successful korea. For all these reasons, the north korean regime did these tests as a way to try to draw the outside world into negotiations to get some credibility and legitimacy because it was the only currency they had. They had no other currency to trade with the outside world. I think it is safe to say that in the policymany community that still believe that is the purpose of this testing. The pace of testing clearly suggests that this is a military testing program. Help not simply a cry for or provocation disguise as an all french. This is military testing. What is the purpose of this program . Learly one purpose is survival dictatorships in particular are quite often very much focused on this. Regime put you that a that over the past 25 years has devoted a disproportionate amount of its resources to a wmd program is not doing this just for survival. Demonstrating and actively trying to test the capability of reaching the United States. Thean talk about some of obstacles that still remain. That is clearly the objective of this testing. The purpose of being able to and tohe United States all of japanreaten and south korea, the military objective is in my view they want to undercut the credibility of u. S. Deterrence guarantees to south korea. , they believeinds that if they can threaten the United States los angeles or San Francisco with a nuclear attack, it will create hesitation on the part of the United States if they were called on defending south korea. If they can threaten all u. S. Installations and cities in japan, including tokyo, they onl create some hesitation japan to allow the United States to have forces. You have to remember that north korea the world for north korea is very small. Survival, but north koreans dont really care about climate change. They dont care about global governance. They dont care about responsible overseas development and policies in africa. They dont care about conflicted states. They only care about survival and dominance of the korean peninsula. May seems idea farfetched to some of you, if you look at it from a north korean mindset, this is all that matters. Once they can create some sense of hesitation or doubt in south korean minds that the United States or japan would be there in the case of a conflict, then they will feel like they have effectives strategic bailouts. 25 years ago the north korean regime realize they were never going to be able to match south , companylar for dollar for company, tank for tank, soldier for soldier, so they chose an asymmetric strategy focusing on Nuclear Weapons, Ballistic Missiles, and cyber as a way to try to asymmetrically tried to match the other side of the fence and that is essentially the strategy they have been following. ,n terms i dont know mark how long the woman to speak for question mark mark it should not be any more than 10. Victor let me make some comments about new government and south korea. Elected in south korea new government was elected in south korea. That they are going to take a very different view of policy towards north korea and create a rift in the alliance between United States and south korea. I think what we have seen thus far has shown the opposite, president moon has of course the north koreans have helped in creating this measured response because they have already done to the newtests since south korean president was elected. , think from a u. S. Perspective i think United States doesnt have a problem with engagement with north korea, but it has to be done at the right time. It has to be coordinated and done at the right time which is what the South Koreans want as well. They dont want to throw money down a black hole. Effectivegoing to be if it is not coordinated with the United States and other members who were involved in trying to do nuclear iran is denuclearize north korea. Think if you look at the president s statements they thanct the ground rather an ideology. Why dont you stop there . Mark thanks for letting out the situation which dr. Wall is going to comment on. Sue, you been looking at the north korean case for quite a number of years. Ell us sue when i used to work at the is and i will tell you what leadership,t is dynamics what the leaders are going to do. This is something that is hard to get a clarity on. As victor said, even though we , we a handle on leadership have a handle on this tactics policy. We had names for which was basically north korea would do and thereprovocative is International Condemnation and they would up the ante. Some sort of confessions made by washington to north korea. This is not exactly the pattern under tim johnson owns jonguns kim leadership. He seems really invested in a Nuclear Program. He is bent on completing it. He sees achieving this capability to be able to hit the as the final guarantee so i dont think theres any guarantee. What really concerns me is whether you are for maximum pressure or engagement and i happen to be for pressure and i happen to be in terms of maximum amount of sanctions and other measures to try to get to the regime to change, but what none of these [no audio] we do sooner or later, i think sooner rather than later north korea will achieve that capability and then i have many north koreae achieves that capability. The two main concerns i have miscalculations. You can hold u. S. Cities as hostages and then they could be and thenocative acts lead to unintended escalation and obviously a problem so that is one concern i have. The second concern and i know a lot of folks share this concern is that Nuclear Deterrence has worked thus far. Again, im not as confident on this leadership that it will work with kim jongun. Lewis wrotejeffrey a policy piece about how north even be developing. N offensive Nuclear Doctrine if there is an argument that people are making that theres a possibility that kim jongun could do that. Could use Nuclear Weapons in the u. S. Efforts in south korea could use nuclear to recoil u. S. Efforts in south korea. Mark six minutes. Chop administration recently says there is a four point strategy. One not recognizing the lou correa north korea as a Nuclear State the sounds are good, and i do think we have to be somewhat realistic. We have to be prepared for this scenario that none of these measures are going to work and what is our longterm policy . I dont know if we have that. We see regime change is off the but if this is credible than it is not going to change. This is something we have to make about. Just two points since im out of time. He sanctions it is not only to pressure north korea. I think it helps to undermining you are hoping to create instability or change. Is taking money away. I think if this information that we talk about. It is very important but i want to make the point that it should not only be targeted towards the public. I think we should try to target the elites because were trying to get to messages across. This is not going to guarantee your survival and livelihood. Andou are able to get out there was some sort of amnesty because it is the only supports that has kept the regime going. Me of what myds first one is a view from south korea, not represented south korea of course. Thank you for having me here. I was wondering about , boomle of this seminar or bust. He actually asked me to talk about the south korean perspective, but unfortunately im not the government. I know a lot of people inside the korean government. I have many friends inside. Understand about the view of the south korean government to north korean policy. That that i believe policy is different from those cabinets. S importance ofhe the interkorean relations and also the social and cultural , the government will start with the cultural or or military. It seems to me i think it is difficult to say the munging beernment would fundamentally different from the previous government. Variablesy the three politics, action and isction, and the third one alliance politics. Of course, the alliance between the u. S. And south korea. The first, regarding the domestic politics. It is natural to expect or view th korean policy which is known as the sunshine iticy so many people predict to be the moonshine policy. [indiscernible] the humanitarian aid to north. Orea maybe two days ago to have it is necessary humanitarian aid. Maybe most of you know the , now he is the special security advisor. Ofis a strong supporter sunshine policy. He has a book on sunshine policy and it is titled sunshine policy in defense he is also a song supporter of the sunshine policy on the korean peninsula. Not knowly, you may a director nominee, and deeply involved in relations so all of them believe sanctions are not enough to change north koreas course of action and they work to pursue a new north korea policy that changes the real nature of the north korean may be in theiety longer term perspective. However, it is somewhat difficult to pursue. It is fundamentally different even during the munging government. South koreas north koreas policy is influence by north koreas behavior as well as south koreas symmetric politics. North korea has conducted five nuclear test for the last 10 years and maybe hundreds of missile test so it is not to south koreas so innt policy then behaviornorth koreas fifthikely north korea continues provocative paper, south koreas Public Opinion is less likely to views engagement for it the munging government understands the importance of koreau. S. Alliance in. Ealing with the north korea the president also spoke about about thece and talks need to strengthen so i think keepunging government will buterating with the essays, south Korean People are concerned about the uncertainty and unpredictability in the and north korean policy. The former bush policy come istrumps policy even to me very uncertain and unpredictable which makes south Korean People concerned about the possibility of child. Northent trump says that korea has shown great disrespect for its neighbor, china. People do not understand what he means. The talked about south Korean People do not understand and so this is why the south Korean People are u. S. Chinabout issues and maybe the korean peninsula. And norththe u. S. The nuclearing necessary it is still andolve the uncertainty coordinate very closely between the two countries to let me stop here. Mark mike, i put you last the current because you would more. Ten us no even copanelistsy discussed earlier, missiles play a paramount role in north and its meansraft to ensure its survival. It is probably the preferred means for delivering a nuclear weapon. Missiles also have a conventional capability and in could be armed with chemical or biological weapons. Though, i would argue artillery is a much more effective means for delivering the two, biological or chemical agent. Seoul quitenge easily that way. I would not expect anything other than nuclear. In the headlines over the last 34 years since kim jongun has come to power, we have seen north korea conduct a large number of missile tests. I think it is somewhere in the never heard of 7578. It depends on how you count them. Some of the news reports are little ambiguous, but nonetheless there are reasons north korea would want to test its missiles. Primarily, at least under the themongun regime, we see new systems. Elop you can develop a missile without testing extensively. Years tolly takes 25 develop a new system. That includes the flight Trial Development phase. You could shorten that. Iod, but there are inherent risk to doing so. North tests provide korean means to train its launch cruise for maintaining operational readiness. Youran use them to survey stockpile terrific to make sure as they age, they still perform to specifications. This is actually an Important Role of flight testing in the in the soviet programs past. Missile tests can be performed to deter rivals. To achieve intimidation. As victor said, creating leverage for negotiations. We look back at the past regimes, we see missile testing was done primarily for political objectives as opposed to some technical imperatives such as developing new systems. It is interesting if we examine and i think previous speakers have talked about this. Under kim jongil, it was one missile per year in those came in bunches. They exception of either came in 2006 or 2009. They launched seven missiles within the best within a few hours. When kim jong on came to power, things changed dramatically. They are now averaging about 1315 test per year in this is indicative of a Missile Development program. North korea is pursuing the development of more than one system. They seem to introduce something new each day. I want to talk about their capabilities, where they are, and then project some timelines and maybe at the end offer some policy prescriptions, but some ideas of what we could and the limitations we have in trying to halt Missile Development. Dong missileso the kimablished during jongil regime. I think they conducted a handful indicativead it was of having received the technology from a foreign source. In this case it was very likely russia. Recently what we have seen north korea do is leverage that existing scud technology. They testedst year, the scud er for extended range. Ofy change the materials construction to lighten it increase the diameter from. 88 meters to one meter in this allows it to travel about thousand kilometers. It is an old soviet design. Develop itar if they themselves or if it was imported in t