Transcripts For CSPAN Discussion Focuses On The Future Of No

Winning the presidency and the 20 17th elections in south korea the 20 17th elections in south korea. Thanks very much for coming to this event for a discussion of north korea. You will notice that clever play words. Normally we have a 30 chance drop a great for those who signal attendance. I think today we had a 30 increase in attendance. I think that is a true to our speakers and the issue at hand, which is one of the top Security Issues facing not just the United States, but the world. This event is part of a dialogue series where we seek to address and shed light on the issues that come up. The dialogue is a gathering of defense ministers around the region and in other countries. There is one asian defense minister who will not be there. That is the north korean. I tried many times to get the North Koreans to come and it has been a failure every time i have my annual review as an area to improve on. Lets get serious about north korea. We have four Renowned Experts to address aspects of the north korean issue, starting with victor cha at csis. Hes also a director of Asian Studies at georgetown university. From 20042007 he served as director for Asian Affairs at the white house. He is a longtime member and contributor. She was the Deputy National Intelligence Officer for east asia at the National Intelligence council. Before that, she served as director for korea, japan, and Oceanic Affairs at the Security Council. Earlier, she worked at the cia. I met her at a conference in philadelphia where i was impressed with her presentation. Thanks for coming. He is a professor at the Catholic University of america. He served in several advisory positions in the korean government including communication, preparation, and the ministry of unification. We met eight years ago and our paths have crossed several times since then. Finally, michael elamin based here in washington. Before i hired him in 2009, he spent five years supporting the implementation previously he spent 18 months at the United Nations for weapons inspections. The event will run for an hour and a half following remarks by each of the panelists. We will have a discussion portion and then turn it over to questions for you. This event is on the record and being broadcast by cspan one and cspan radio. Eventually a video will be posted. Because of the cspan broadcast, we have actualize here which asked to the heat in the room and unfortunately, today, the airconditioning chose to go out for the entire building in the room is packed with people so im going to encourage everyone to feel free to take off one layer of clothing. [laughter] i encourage the panelists to do that as well. If you see us sweating, it is not because we are worried about north korea. Victor, lets start off with some thoughts from you. Victor it is a pleasure to be here. Mark neglected to mention how we first met. You probably dont remember. Mark i remember. Victor i was doing my phd dissertation in looking for people to interview for my thesis in when you are roaming the streets of tokyo, you are grateful and remember the ones who said yes. Mark was one of the two people who had said yes at the time and the other was bill mckinney. Im always grateful for that. In terms of north korea, a great title, boom or bust. If any of you have been paying attention to the news, you will notice an uptick in coverage of north korea largely because of missile testing activity. Some of you may look at this and say we have seen them do this before. This is just cyclical coverage of every time they decide to test, but there is a qualitative difference today in terms of what has happened in the past. If we start from some of the basic metrics. Between 19942007, so for about 17 years, north korea did 17 Ballistic Missile tests. Since january 2008 until today, i think they have done 73 or 74 tests and fourle nuclear tests. So there has been a change in the amount they have been doing. In the past, there was a theory in washington, d. C. And calls and in academic halls around universities that the purpose of north koreas testing was that it was essentially a desire to have negotiations with the outside world and in particular, the United States. North korea, the poor and isolated country. It has the largest country on its border, russia on its border. United States Military is in the south and directly across the border is a very successful korea. For all these reasons, the north korean regime did these tests as a way to try to draw the outside world into negotiations to get some credibility and legitimacy because it was the only currency they had. They had no other currency to trade with the outside world. I think it is safe to say that there are not many in the policy community that still believe that is the purpose of this testing. The pace of testing clearly suggests that this is a military testing program. It is not simply a cry for help or provocation disguise as an all french. As in all of branch as an olive branch. This is military testing. What is the purpose of this program . Clearly one purpose is survival. Dictatorships in particular are quite often very much focused on this. I would put you that a regime that over the past 25 years has devoted a disproportionate amount of its resources to a wmd program is not doing this just for survival. North korea is demonstrating and actively trying to test the capability of reaching the United States. We can talk about some of the obstacles that still remain. That is clearly the objective of this testing. The purpose of being able to reach the United States and to be able to threaten all of japan and south korea, the military objective is in my view they want to undercut the credibility of u. S. Deterrence guarantees to south korea. In their own minds, they believe that if they can threaten the United States los angeles or San Francisco with a nuclear attack, it will create hesitation on the part of the United States if they were called on defending south korea. If they can threaten all u. S. Installations and cities in japan, including tokyo, they will create some hesitation on japan to allow the United States to have forces. You have to remember that north korea the world for north korea is very small. It is about survival, but North Koreans dont really care about climate change. They dont care about global governance. They dont care about responsible overseas development and policies in africa. They dont care about conflicted states. They only care about survival and dominance of the korean peninsula. While this idea may seem farfetched to some of you, if you look at it from a north korean mindset, this is all that matters. Once they can create some sense of hesitation or doubt in south korean minds that the United States or japan would be there in the case of a conflict, then they will feel like they have effectives strategic bailouts. 25 years ago the north korean regime realize they were never going to be able to match south korea dollar for dollar, company for company, tank for tank, soldier for soldier, so they chose an asymmetric strategy focused on Nuclear Weapons, Ballistic Missiles, and cyber as a way to try to asymmetrically tried to match the other side of the fence and that is essentially the strategy they have been following. In terms i dont know mark, how long do you want me to speak for . It should not be any more than 10. Victor let me make some comments about new government and south korea. New government was elected in south korea a couple of weeks ago. There was a lot of noise in the press about how this is the first progressive government and south korea in a decade in south korea in a decade. That they are going to take a very different view of policy towards north korea and create a rift in the alliance between United States and south korea. I think what we have seen thus far has shown the opposite, which is president moon has taken a pretty measured position when it comes to engagement with north korea, reinvigorating the sunshine policy. Of course the North Koreans have helped in creating this measured response because they have already done two missile tests since the new south korean president was elected. I think from a u. S. Perspective, i think United States doesnt have a problem with engagement with north korea, but it has to be done at the right time. It has to be coordinated and done at the right time which is what the South Koreans want as well. They dont want to throw money down a black hole. It is not going to be effective if it is not coordinated with the United States and other members who were involved in trying to do nuclear iran is north korea denuclearize north korea. Thus far, i think if you look at the president s statements they reflect the ground rather than ideology the an ideology. Why dont you stop there . Mark thanks for letting out the situation which dr. Juan is going to comment on. Sue, you been looking at the north korean case for quite a number of years. Tell us your insights. Sue when i used to work at the cia and i will tell you what is the hard part is leadership, dynamics what the leaders are going to do. This is something that is hard to get a clarity on. As victor said, even though we have a handle on leadership, we have a handle on this tactics policy. We had names for which was basically north korea would do something provocative and there is International Condemnation and they would up the ante. Then, they would some sort of concessions made by washington to north korea. This is not exactly the pattern under kim jonguns leadership. He seems really invested in a Nuclear Program. He is bent on completing it. He sticks his entire legitimacy on perfecting this nuclear arsenal. He sees achieving this capability to be able to hit the United States as the final guarantee, so i dont think theres any what really concerns me is whether you are for maximum pressure or engagement and i happen to be for pressure and i happen to be in terms of maximum amount of sanctions and other measures to try to get to the regime to change, but what concerns me is none of these measures were likely achieved. Then we want to achieve which is to get north korea to give up Nuclear Weapons to give up its nuclear arsenal. Whatever we do, sooner or later, i think sooner rather than later north korea will achieve that capability. And then i have many concerns once north korea achieves that capability. The two main concerns i have , first, miscalculations. You can hold u. S. Cities as hostages and then they could be more provocative acts and then lead to unintended escalation and obviously a problem so that is one concern i have. The second concern and i know a lot of folks share this concern is that Nuclear Deterrence has worked thus far. Again, im not as confident on this leadership that it will work with kim jongun. I have less confidence. People like Jeffrey Lewis wrote a policy piece about how north korea might even be developing an offensive nuclear doctrine. If there is an argument that people are making that theres a possibility that kim jongun could do that. Could use Nuclear Weapons in the efforts to recoil u. S. Efforts in south korea could use Nuclear Weapons to recoil u. S. Efforts in south korea. That is a very scary scenario. The Trump Administration recently said there is a four point strategy. Recognizing north korea as a Nuclear State the sounds are good, and i do think we have to be somewhat realistic. We have to be prepared for this scenario that none of these measures are going to work and what is our longterm policy . I dont know if we have that. We see regime change is off the table, but if this is credible than it is not going to change. This is something we have to think about. Just two points since im out of time. The sanctions. It is not only to pressure north korea. I think it helps to undermining the current you are hoping to create instability or change. Sanctions is taking money away. I think if this information that we talk about. It is very important but i want to make the point that it should not only be targeted towards the public. I think we should try to target the elites because were trying to get to messages across. This is not going to guarantee your survival and livelihood. If you are able to get out and there was some sort of amnesty because it is the only supports that has kept the regime going. Why dont i wrap up. Mark you ended in a great place. It reminds me of what my friend a are no first one is a view from south korea, not representing south korea, of course. Thank you for having me here. I think i was wondering about the title of this seminar, boom or bust. He actually asked me to talk about the south korean perspective, but unfortunately im not the government. I know a lot of people inside the korean government. I have many friends inside. I think i understand about the view of the south korean government to north korean policy. Basically, i believe that that policy is different from those of previous cabinets. To emphasize the importance of the interkorean relations and also the social and cultural exchanges, the government will start with the cultural or social or military. It seems to me i think it is difficult to say the munging government would be fundamentally different from the previous government. I would say the three variables is domestic politics, action and reaction, and the third one is alliance politics. Of course, the alliance between the u. S. And south korea. The first, regarding the domestic politics. It is natural to expect or view north korean policy which is known as the sunshine policy so many people predict it to be the moonshine policy. [chanting] moonshine policy. [laughter] the humanitarian aid to north korea maybe two days ago. Was told it is necessary to have humanitarian aid. Maybe most of you know the professor, now he is the special security advisor. He is a strong supporter of sunshine policy. He has a book on sunshine policy published in 2013 and it is policy innshine defense of korea. Supporter ofstrong the sunshine policy on the korean peninsula. And finally, you may not know him, he is a director nominee, and deeply involved in relations so all of them believe sanctions are not enough to change north koreas course of action and they work to pursue a new north korea policy that changes the real nature of the north korean regime and society may be in the longer term perspective. However, it is somewhat difficult to pursue. It is fundamentally different even during the munging government. South koreas north koreas policy is influence by north koreas behavior as well as south koreas symmetric politics. North korea has conducted five nuclear test for the last 10 years and maybe hundreds of missile test so it is not difficult to south koreas constant policy then so in defense, north koreas behavior is less likely to stop those actions. South Korean People feel very threatened by with koreas military provocations so most Korean People support the International Sanction on north korea and believe that china has not been cooperating in implementing the sanctions. If north korea continues provocative behavior, south koreas Public Opinion is less likely to support the views engagement. The munging government understands the importance of the koreau. S. Alliance in dealing with the north korea. The president also spoke about the alliance and talks about the need to strengthen so i think the munging government will keep cooperating with the essays, but south Korean People are concerned about the uncertainty and unpredictability in the north korean and north korean policy. The former bush policy come up trumps policy even to me is very uncertain and unpredictable which makes south Korean People concerned about the possibility of child. When President Trump says that north korea has shown great disrespect for its neighbor, china. China is trying hard, people do not understand what he means. He also talked about the south Korean People do not understand and so this is why the south Korean People are concerned about the possibility issues and maybe the korean peninsula. I believe the u. S. And north korea resolving the Nuclear Issue, but it is Still Necessary resolve the uncertainty and coordinate very closely between the two countries to let me stop here. Mark mike, i put you last the current because you would enlighten us even more. Michael as my copanelists discussed earlier, missiles play a paramount role in north koreas statecraft and its means to ensure its survival. It is probably the preferred means for delivering a nuclear weapon. Missiles also have a conventional capability and in principle, they could be armed with chemical or biological weapons. Though, i would argue artillery is a much more effective means for delivering the two, biological or chemical agent. They can range seoul quite easily that way. I would not expect anything other than nuclear. In t