Washington. The conversation, live at noon on cspan 2. The turkish referendum vote they give president erdogan expanded executive powers was the discussion of the institute at washington dc. Panelists offer their predictions for turkeys future. Good afternoon. Good afternoon. Welcome to the washington institute. I am the executive director. I am delighted to welcome all of you to this special event. Before i begin if i can please ask everyone to take your iphones or samsungs or whatever and turn them on silent, because we are broadcasting live on cspan one. So please watch your language and speak and clear tones so people around the world can hear us. Youre free to tweet as much as you like because we are eager to get todays discussion out far and wide. It is not often that one can time the publication of a new o will propitiously to an international event. Or arrange a referendum in a far away country to be timed perfectly with the publication of a new look. As it turns out, we have this confluence of events. We have the referendum in turkey that come although the results in the process were provocative and remain controversial and subject to great debate, and i am sure we will hear more about that, the result seems to be to elevate the existing president of turkey into an even higher or elevated position. Might be able to call the new sultan. Surprisingly enough, that is the title of this new book by the director of the washington institutes Turkish Research program, soner cagaptay, the and thean erdogan crisis of modern turkey. I know we know turkey is a country in crisis. As the subtitle of soner cagaptays Outstanding New work suggests. The subject of todays discussion is, what type of crisis . How lasting a crisis . A crisis at home . A crisis abroad . A crisis getting worse or a crisis Getting Better . Now, for all the provocation and controversy there might even be some clarity about the direction of turkish leadership. And to talk about these questions, first, imm going to be quite delighted to welcome to the podium the author of the new sultan soner cagaptay. And then, we have an outstanding array of turkish expertise here on the panel. And as a look around the audience, a remarkable array of turkish expertise within these four walls. Soner, iturned to am delighted to welcome to the podium the founder of the middle east Institutes Center for turkish studies and an adjunct professor at the George Washington university for middle east studies here in washington. Then we will turn to the Public Policy fellow at the Woodrow Wilson centers italys program, veteran journalist, 15 years a turkish correspondent for the economist. Really delighted to have this panel, which brings such indepth knowledge of the current political situation and the likely direction of politics to turkey, and special interest to this audience of course, the direction of the u. S. Turkish relationship in this new era. We have already seen the first sign of the direction of the u. S. Turkish relationship of course, with President Trumps outreach to the newly reempowered president erdogan just yesterday. Now going to call to the podium my colleague soner. Soner has been with the institute now for many years. He is the author of several books on turkish domestic and Foreign Policy. Soners greatest claim to fame is there is a generation of American ForeignService Officers who have gone on to serve america brought in turkey, who have passed through aners tender mercies as instructor of american diplomats abroad. I think we are all better served for that. That americas representatives in turkey have had the benefit of soners insight and wisdom. That is one of the things we try to do here at the institute, not and opine in books, op eds, television, but to improve the quality of American Foreignpolicy by such things as teaching american diplomats. I am delighted to have soner. Soner, the podium is yours. Soner thank you, rob. I in so pleased to see so many of my friends and colleagues from around town. It is a great day for me. I really appreciate you are here. I want to thank the rest of the panelists. They are two of the topnotch experts in town on turkish politics. There was an excellent oped in the New York Times this morning. She is a frequent commentator on various issues. I have been a follower of her work for nearly two decades. I am pleased to have her with me here today. I also wanted to start of course, by thanking president Tayyip Erdogan for will time in the referendum to overlap with the launch of my book. I could not have done it without him. [laughter] soner literally and figuratively. This is obviously a critical time in turkish history. I want to tell you first about my book, the new sultan. I decided to read this book last year in june. The original idea was that i would write it over a year, it would be edited sometime this spring and published next summer. Then the coup happened as i was writing the book. My editors asked me to bring up the deadline. I agreed. I wrote it between coming back from the beach in august and christmas in december, about four months. And then it was edited and copyedited and proofread and designed and printed in the last three months. And there you go. , very proud of the book of course. Thank a number of people to whom i owe gratitude for getting this right together. First of all, my boss rob sutcliffe. Of course because he is my boss and i am doing Salary Review with him right now. [laughter] soner thank you, rob. The institute and my colleagues. This is a great place to work. It is one of the best places to work and probably the best intellectual incubator. I have enjoyed my tenure here over the last 15 years. I feel lucky to be surrounded by so many smart people and my colleagues, as well as our research assistants. I have been blessed in the last decade and a half by a very Impressive Group of interns and research assistance, some of whom are in this room. I see meredith. Jim is here. You guys are both in the book , thank you. Of course, my biggest thanks goes to of course, sitting in the front. I think you deserve a round of applause. [applause] i did not drive her crazy. Thank you for bearing with me. We went through every sentence together. I would tell her a sentence and she would finish it. I would say, did you look at that typo . And she was say, yes, i fixed it. I cannot have done the book without you. I have dedicated this book to the loving memory of my mother. I was born into a workingclass family in turkey and went to yale for my phd. My parents have raised me and my siblings and deserve tremendous thanks. I want to turn to my book, why i wrote it and what it is about. And i will go to my colleagues and we will have hopefully, a good discussion on that. I followed turkish policy as a student for nearly two decades. I have written on it. In the last 15 years, i have been at the institute writing on turkey. For those of you who follow my work, you will find traces of our discussions in this book. In many ways, the new sultan follows my previous book, the rise of turkey. In this book, i looked at turkeys Economic Growth under president erdogan, and his justice and development party. I argue that turkey has witnessed meant us Economic Growth in the last decade. After having been transformed economically, erdogans task was to transform turkey politically. To this end and i believe this i believe erdogan wants to make turkey a great power. I said the path to that goes through becoming an advanced economy. Erdogan has made turkey a country which makes themselves strong. Turkey has to become a hub for google. And to pass for that it has to become an open society and a liberal democracy. Turkey, theof homework was therefore, to get to the advanced economy, to build a new liberal democratic order. One that would provide for freedom for the two halves of turkey, the freedom of religion for the religious half, and freedom of religion for the secular half, roughly defined. This new constitution would have to provide for broad liberties for all citizens, including the kurds. I concluded that relieved of his perennial, secular religious tensions in the border of the kurdish problem, inside and outside of the country, turkey avoidthen soar, the trap of a middle income economy and become a great power. I dont think erdogan read my book. [laughter] soner i wrote this one now, the crisis of turkey. Let me tell you what the crisis is and where it is heading. It is the story of erdogans power consolidation since 2003, Prime Minister. I argue in the conclusion that erdogan has become as unavailable as was ataturk was. He is the most powerful turk. The problem is, half of turkey loves them and the other half loaths him. That is the crisis in which turkey has found itself, as a result of erdogans political trajectory. What is more, i argue that erdogan wants to shape turkey in his own image. I suggest he is following what i model. Ataturk in the early 20th century, ataturk shaped turkey in his own image, including education policy, as a secular, western european society. Erdogan wants to use the ataturk model, but he is taking a cue from the countrys founder. He wants to emulate and replace ataturk. He does not share his values, just methods. That is topdown social engineering. And he wants to use state power once again, including educational policy to shape turkey in his own image, very different from ataturks image. A country that would become to the core, islamic, politically that is. Religious and middle eastern, and conservative. That is a topdown method that i think erdogan is borrowing from the ataturk model. But ataturk was a military general. Erdogan had a democratic mandate. Or i should say, he had one until the sunday. There is widespread consensus that the election process was not fair. And there is emerging consensus that there were irregularities the day of the voting. We dont know the scale of the irregularities, but that is the problem. Erdogan has decided to move forward. He has declared himself an executive style president. Best, a mandate in question for half of the country that does not support him and that only exacerbates turkeys deep societal polarization. It te did not olivier did not alleviate it. Turkey is split in the middle between pro and anti erdogan camps. Will belikely erdogan able to impose his vision on the erdogan society. I argue in the book that it is unlikely that he will be able to impose his vision on the entire Turkish Society. There are many experts on turkey in this room. I see many of my friends and former students from the state department. We have discussed this many times, it is a very complicated country with him a launch of political, at the, religious, and social groups. We saw this in sundays referendum. A near majority is not a majority. We have a map of turkey. If we can pull it up a second. There you go. As you can see on the map, overwhelming number of turkish provinces along the coast and northwest representing an overwhelming percentage of turkeys gp voted against them. He lost istanbul, where he started his political career, which i track in my book, in 1994 when he became mayor. That is where he provided good government, cleaned up the city. It is why the turks decided to make an Prime Minister later on and help his rise to power. He lost that. He lost support in some of the key cities of the country, but more importantly, as well as losing in the kurdish areas, he stanbul, i including his own area in istanbul. I argue in my book that turkey is simply too large demographically, too big economically, and too complicated politically for one person to control it in its entirety. Despite erdogans efforts to create a crowning class of capitalists, which would control the large part of turkeys economic wealth, it is still wedded to secular and european values. Let me know look at the trajectories, which i highlight in my book Going Forward. I see three trajectories moving forward. I will conclude a little bit looking at postreferendum Foreign Policy environments, which i think deserves some discussion as well. Trajectory is the current state of affairs. A deeply polarized society in which half of the country, the conservatives, islamists, nationalists, three groups that believe turkeys heaven. The other half is a loose coalition of opposition figures, socialists, leftists, democrats, or liberal muslims who believe turkey is hell. This is the best case, in my view forward, Going Forward, a permanent state of crisis turkey is stuck under. As long as turkey is generally democratic, erdogan cannot continue to govern the way he wants. There is a chance he might even end the democracy Going Forward. That is the second trajectory. The third is an extension of the second. Societal polarization, coupled right, fars from the right by isis, from the far lieft by pkk. Together with nefarious neighbors, who want erdogans fall, i argue in my book, could even catapult turkey into an unfortunate and unwanted civil conflict. Now and look at erdogans foreignpolicy challenges because we have not discussed that yet. I spent a lot of time in the how russia isbout the nemesis that keeps coming, despite the fact that russians are friendly towards erdogan. They are also deploying troops in setting up a base. U. S. Policy also works with ypg, but only where there is isis. Russia is operating where there is no isis. It is surrounded by the assad regime, turkey back rebels and turkey. Going forward, i think russia is going to be erdogans nemesis, as well as the most feared enemy. But does this thing erdogan but does this mean erdogans is coming to the bosom of the western world . He is not. We saw this in the runup to the referendum. The European Union became the punching bag in the runup to the referendum. This has a lot to do with erdogans next step. He has become an executive style present. There are elections coming up. He has to win those elections for the parliament in his party. Something interesting happened during the last election. Voters of the nationalist action party, which is a smaller fraction of the turkish parliament, which polled about 10 , voted for erdogan in the referendum and some voted against him. This party is splitting. The split is happening where voters in central and northeastern anatolia are flipping for erdogan. Nhp voters in the coastal provinces and large cities are flipping against erdogan. That is music to erdogans ears. That means he can solidify apks popularity. This is an ultranationalist party. It also suggests that mhps support for erdogan strengthens apk, but in case of new elections, mhp will fail turkeys high 10 electoral threshold. When that happens, apk has super majority in the parliament. Goalnk thats erdogans Going Forward. That means ultranationalists on foreignpolicy issues anticipate major problems in ties with europe. He has suggested he might bring back capital punishment. That would end of a turkey being kicked out of the council of europe. If they are kicked out, turkish courts will not be recognized at the highest court of the country. Turkish citizens will not have access to that, and that changes the political dynamics of the country. He controls the courts. I anticipate a hard nationalist foreignpolicy line towards u. S. Cooperation with ypg because that is in line with his hardline policy on the kurds in that mhpo make sure voters that have flipped for him becomethat is enough doom and g. I dont want to tell you all about the fourth trajectory. I will you to buy the book. He has made turkey wealthy. This is a middleclass society. That is where he deserves credit. Turkey has grown. It has better infrastructure. The citizens live better off they on they did before. From the previous book that i like most the rise of turkey when erdogan came to power, the infant mortality rate in turkey was comparable to prewar syria. To spain. Comparable they live like the spanish. That is why they are voting for erdogan. I also argued that this growth has built the middle class space. And now they are making middleclass demands. It is the wealthier provinces along the mediterranean that have voted against him in the referendum. So, that is a good sign going for. But i dont want it it carried away with the case for a liberal turkey because number one, the opposition that is against erdogan is extremely divided. It is not as large as the pro erdogan camp, but is divided. It includes turkish nationalists, seculars, and conservatives, central rights, and central lefts. There is a bigger challenge. Since go back to the leadership issues. The opposition lacks a charismatic leader. Turksvative islamic have their own ataturk. The real ataturk is dead. That is the challenge for the other half of turkey. Until the day that a man or woman emerges that could make the case for a liberal turkey that would have a constitution that would provide freedom of religion and freedom from religion simultaneously, that would provide broad liberties for all, individual liberties including cultural liberties, including the kurds, until that moment comes, i remain deeply worried about turkeys future. Liberal turkey remains a distant dream, it is plausible, given the economic information turkey has undergone under erdogan. I think it is thanks to him but i will write my next book. Thank you, everybody for coming. [applause] good afternoon, everyone. First, of course, soner, congratulations. I think he is one of the most productive turkey experts in town. He makes us look lazy. And my boss loves you aside from that, i really enjoyed reading your book. I picked upe, when the book, the first thing that came to my mind was, which sultan . So, i think at this point, after maybe we canm, live with the mcafee sent. With the magnificent. But what about sulaman the magnificent, who was a reformer. I think the book does a great job of opening a window into erdogans psyche. Enter telling his personal narrative, and this is a whichive of victimhood, resonates very well among his constituency and actually, beyond. It is showing us the interaction between the founding ideology and the reactions to it. So, that is why i particularly enjoyed reading the chapters on the kurdish nationalism and islamism, both reactions to the ideology. But i think turkey right now lives in a post isla