Topics include artificial intelligence, the Digital Economy and u. S. And european aid to ukraine. This is two hours and 45 minutes. [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] thank you, everybody. Good morning. So great to be together for third annual Aspen Security Forum d. C. Beginning this evening, seasons greetings to all. Please join me in thanking the Aspen Strategy Group and are cochairs joan i and condeleezza rice and her speakers and sponsors. Thank you all. [applause] also, a huge thanks to our remarkable Aspen Strategy GroupTeam Including our executive director and so many others. Thank yall for the time you put preparing this summit. [applause] thank you also to the trustees of the Aspen Institute who are so supportive of this work and in particular jane harman, gilded born at a board chair margot who since a greetings, so thank you to our trustees here. [applause] eightytwo years ago today, japan attacked the u. S. Naval base in pearl harbor. Drawing the United States into what would become thedl deadliet war in human history. And the greatest. Generation through terrorism, whose heroism we honor today bearing witness to the evils of holocaust, to Nuclear Devastation and proliferation, to the advent of the cold war. This period brought about numerous geopolitical and military paradigm shifts, including sea changes in the technologies of four. Dramatically elevating the need for American Leadership in the world on behalfn of freedom and democracy and human dignity. From the ferment of those transformational times came the founding of many of todays great organs of civil societies, including the Aspen Institute. Established in 1949, in service of social progress and human dignity, this institute assigned itself purpose of igniting Human Potential to build understanding and promote new possibilities for a better world. Our foundersrl were clear eyed into understanding that democracy, free enterprise, and military strength were three intertwined strands of onene grt court that would pull america forward. And they were truly humanistic in their beliefs and philosophical inquiry, constant learning, open dialogue, deliberation, diplomacy, reason and science, art, innovation, valuesbased leadership would be the glue of a strong and adaptable democracy. In that spirit, our founding and in pursuit of our purpose the Aspen Strategy Group holds this forum twice a year here and in aspen to identify and address the greatest challenges facing the u. S. And the world, and in these times they are many and they are all interconnected. Anja, leah and their team have displayed remarkable intelligence and perspective in designing this forum to connect the dots of themes thinge china challenge, the war for freedom in ukraine, terror and war inir the middle east, tensis are global trade, the climate crisis, the arms race, and artificial intelligence. Each of these themes requires human intelligence of the highest order, especially if American Leadership and american institutions and american democracy are to meet the enduring and emerging test before us. Our conference will feature a variety of voices government and military leadership to private sector, academia and media. On this day of remembrance i would especially like to thank the members of our Armed Services who lived their oath to the constitution every day and whose presence here is a powerful reminder of the differences betweenem open society, a system of Democratic Capitalism that we have, and though systems of ourur adversaries. And with that i also like to thank with people respect, learned journalist taking part here today with the central role they play in informing the public the difficult times on difficult issues for the good of our democracy. We hope you all learn from these discussions. Welcome. Thank you for being here. Its now my pleasure to welcome our superb Aspen Strategy Group executive director anja manuel to the stage to introduce our speakers. Thank you all. [applause] thank you so much, dan. And welcome to all of you here an almost snowy washington. It is good to see so many familiar faces, so many friends who were with us last summer in aspen. In aspen a few months ago we made it our collective goal to use our imagination to look over the horizon instead of those challenges right in front of us. And to envision and then jointly create a more optimistic future. We shook up outdated assumptions about the middle east, about africa, our relationship with china. This summer israeli former deputy Prime Minister told us that we are entering a new middle east, and president zelensky said to us that with americas help, ukraine will win. In spectacular fashion, the world had other plans. It has been very difficult the last few months, and i just want to speak my gratitude to the friends of ours who are working tirelessly for the u. S. Government every day, for allied and partnered governments, those journalists who were covering these difficult times, the ngos were all involved. Thank you all for the hard work you are doing. Peace and democracy seemed to be on the back foot and under attack everywhere. This isnt any reason to give up. Its all the more reason to redouble our efforts. One of my favorite sayings of dr. Kissinger, who has been rightfully undeservedly eulogized in the past few days is best, aew state spends duty s to bridge the gap between the nations experience and a better vision. Thats exactly what we strive to do here at the aspen security for. Were setting up a more positive vision, and then we are strivinm concretely meet it. So to do that we have an incredible lineup for you all today. We are going to hear from some of our nations best and brightest senior military leaders, senators, members of congress. Were going too hear from the brandnew foreign secretary of the United KingdomDavid Cameron. Cameron. Were going here from egyptian foreign minister shukri, from katherine i, the mistreatment student, john fighter, john podesta about cop 22, Anne Neuberger and others. Were going to cover the gamut of the challenges that face us here in the United States and beyond and going to look further out. Were going to see how we can solve some of these thorny problems and how we can jointly build a better future. I want to thank dan porterfield, elliott courson and and whole aspen team, and really are smala but mighty Aspen Security Forum team, neve, death, leah, and, all of the folks working on distance to make this work would not be possible without them and it certainly wouldnt be possible without our wonderful sponsors who have been really steadfast with us for multiple years now, google, mastercard, mckinsey, microsoft, mitre, the rockefeller foundation, the Walton Family foundation and so many others. We are grateful to you all and grateful to all of you here in the audience who are here because you want to help us build a more optimistic future, thank you. [applause] its now my pleasure to welcome on stage Michele Flournoy, general fenton, Courtney Kube you to kick is right off with one of the most important topics, which is how to get our armed forces the technology and innovation thatin we need. Thank you all very much for being here. Thank you, courtney. [applause] thank you so much, anja. Thank you all for being here. The first panel adding event isnt always the highest attended and at so thrilled to h see so may people here today. I have to say until dance opening remarks it hadnt occurred to me what the date that it is, the universe of pearl harbor and i think its so appropriate thatt were beginning the form forum here today s anniversary with a session about future challenges and the need for u. S. Military and the u. S. Government to transform face future challenges especially when you look back and think about the fact that how much this nation, this military, this world has changed since pearl harbor. So we have a tremendous group up your to talk about this. When doug beck, director of the innovations unit and Senior Advisor secretary of defense. Michele flournoy, i have my list welcome Michele Flournoy cofounder and managing part of west executive vice former undersecretary of defense for policy, and general bryan fenton, interview special Operations Command who ive the feeling is to be our interesting and joke maker up here today, civil try to keep them in line. I do want to talk about there challenges, but because with the first panel and we have a 4star general appear, i do not ask about when the bit of news we had this week. Senator tuberville announcing hes going to lift the whole a most of the nominations. Im just curious, over these last several months while the nominees have been held up, house that had an impact on special Operations Command puts it so can you tell us what that is been . Courtney kube think you. First of all good morning, everybody and really appreciate being here certain with great friends, michelle and doug. First of all i would say we are very grateful that this halt has been lifted. We can get back to did the business of the department and really complex and complicated world and thats changed significantly in the last ten years. Many have talked about sony we will be more challenging in the next concise and decade in the next one to two years ahead which will be really important. So you want us back and visit of predictability in the department. The leaders in the right places and certainly getting after the tasks and the president and the present. Given your department defense. As impact of that. Theres been a lot of folks acting impositions but not really able to make the decisions that would carry an organization on five or ten years out. Its important and affordability in this room in whatever business bracketing or whatever you do, you know that having a vision is important so were back to the business over grateful though there is so smart to do, some teammates that i think are being held up. We hope that will be worked fairly quickly. I would say on the family five that i hope assorted been heard by but in this room. Thats a tremendous impact in a not so good way, in a bad way. You think about families who think theyre going to move, go to new location, new schools. You have organizations to be a part of, friends to meet lw friends to make and family members and spouses that would also have employment and have to get certificates in new states or even across the world, and thats all been held up, its been very hard for a lot of families and i think that that thankfully will now be able to get back to business. I will just end with we are grateful this, mostly theyre still work to do what the hold has been lifted to make it back to doing the business of the department which would be to be forward and certainly defend the nation. I want to talk about current challenges. What are the biggest threat, going to go down the line, general, story to put you on the spot. You told me i can tell some jokes. You can tell some jokes believe me. What are some of the biggest threat youre seeing right now . Thank you. I think before i talk about the threats and doubletalk if youre okay, both operational and because one of transformational pam, offer that as well. I would say to do that your special Operations Command team preferably out of its an opportunity to see the world globally. Were global combatant command that has an opportunity to see the world on o any given day through the eyes of 6000 teammates, teammates that are deployed in 80 countries across the world. They are small part of the 70,000 army, navy, air force marine and space force now special operations teammates. And i think they have an opportunity because they work in many domains. The work infodemic of the land domain, space and cyber domain and maritime to see the world as a like to think about it from seabed to space and from fiber to cyber. They have a good on the things that i will tell you now that we are seeing. We are seeing the prc compete globally inte this world, and nt only bound by indopacom. Without the chance recently to travel to south america and africa. They are in south america and africa wielding the elements of power, diplomatic economic and some level of information. Probably more the military piece of that in the indopacific. Were also seeing russia not just bound to ukraine and the travesties that they are wreaking there and certainly the unfortunate events against the ukraine people but theyre also in other parts of europe as a think all fear no as well in africa and north and west, courtney we were glad to see with our teammates, he seemed that looks like in some small part in mali, niger, where russia peters ether through its paramilitary or Even Ministry of defense. We also seeo russia in libya. So they are not bound geographical gist of the european continent so theyre competing there are on top of that the other challenges of violent extremism. Isis and alqaeda and even alshabaab i think each day look to regain their footing and even though theres been a large amount of work done over the years with that on the special Operations Command but the whole of our use government and partners and allies commit h those networks apart and keep them at bay from certainly our homeland and partners and allies, they are looking to regain that each and every day. While the caliphate they desire has been contained, a lot of it in the movies, the ideology is still unconstrained and looks to run rampant through the internet. So thats a challenge. Lastly i will just add an interest of time on the up side, the world votes and all the sudden and unpredictable what it comes in of the crisis. On top of mine certainly whats going on with israel and hamas since seven october the world has been extended busy not only their but across the world to address this and special Operations Command has as well but a place like sedan even before that we had diplomats from the United States and partners and allies around address and it was a lot of work to do there. And lastly i will just talk since tech panel were seeing i think a test, the proliferation of drones. Most make a right to think of flying in the air as quad coppice but the getting bigger faster fast, the fly longer. They are loitering and are becoming many of meanies when you add autonomy to it. Were also seeing robotics anyway that a landbased go, and the drone for writing were seeing the medal in area but maritime and certainly subsurface to surface space. I think artificial intelligence, i tried to check some of these questions through chatgpt they already, perplexity. It didnt come up with a good answer any good jokes but i think thats both an advantage for us as a look to harness that and make decisions faster and certainly grab not only lots of data but maybe metaverse of data. Its a a challenge facilities as well. And i will just end with the arrival of smart cities. Everything is wired these days with cameras, pressure device, sensors, and it s is all being connected some and its either a challenge for us used against a specialty something we should harness. So just a couple of things just a few things. Everybody will be hiding under the tables. I appreciate your teammates. Think of them are happy see me leave than happy to see us get there. Not true. Michelle, general fenton named a number of different threats. What do policymakers see us biggest threat . What exactly are this to you to address some of things general fenton just brought up . Well, i think the challenge for policymakers right now is the volatility of the environment is such that even though the synergy is identify china as deterring china as the pacing threat, the real world is not cooperating. Weve got russias continued aggression against ukraine. We now have this explosive situation between hamas and israel in the middle east and the risks of potential escalation to a larger regional conflict. And many other counterterrorism operations, many of the things that call the attention to the here and now because of the stakes involved for the United States and a partners and allies. But at the same time we have to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time. We have to be able to keep our eyes in some of our bandwidth focused on the most consequential threat in my view, which is preventing they were with the Nuclear Armed china, whether its over taiwan or Something Else here and we know that president xi is very interested in reintegrating taiwan into Greater China on his watch. We know he prefers political and economic coercion to achieve that objective as he did in hong kong. But we also know hes instructed his military to options ready for him by 2027. And so we need to be able to anticipate a potential test of our ability to deter in that timeframe, and that is really driving in the pentagon i think a lot of leadership effort to first of all, set the theater with our allies so the work you see happening with aukus, the work you see happening in the quad, are deepening relationship with japan, korea, philippines and other partners, allies and partners, all very critical. But its also put a premium on accelerating the adoption of Innovative Technologies, their integration into the legacy force, and doing that with speed and scale. That is going to be critical to us passing that deterrence test and presenting president xi if he ever thinks that using force with enough the limits and enough challenges that he says not today. And so i know well talk a lot about technology pieces, but i just want to put it in an and other key issues that is not getting enough attention, a