Course businesses, and selfsociety, but Civil Society but the ones that really took advantage, early authors of many opportunities created by brokennizations their criminals and that led me to start taking a deeper look at the way in which criminal networks became global and how nigerian criminal organizations were working in thailand and russians were operating in manhattan, and how spanish organizations were operating colombia and vice versa. When i started looking at that, i discovered that there was a lot of anxiety and opinion but wasnt really much research. Except Louise Shelleys pioneering work. She started working on this subject when no one was paying attention it to. Her first book is in the early 1980s, crime and modernization, and after that she has had a string of books that have really framed the conversation. Its really impossible to have a conversation, a research, with what is happening to global crime and how intertwined with governments and terrorists and business, and even Civil Society, without reference to Louise Shelleys pioneering work. She is now professor at the school of government policy, government, and international affairs, at george mason university. She founded and directed terrorism, transnational crime and corruption center, t. R. A. C. , which is a characteristic way in which she approaches her research. She is very empirically ore yep oriented. The problem with criminal networks is those who dont know talk, and those who dont know talk. And thats not the case we Louise Shelley and her teams work. They have a propensity for empirical research, for going out in the field, and in this subject, going out on the field very often is quite dangerous. She has won and earned many awards. She is the recipient of a National Endowment of the humanities, cannon institute, full bright fellowships and grants to study the subject. The author of ten books of this latest one. She will give us a brief introduction to the main messages and the main conclusions of dirty entanglements and then we are lucky of the may associate who specializes in india. But takes a broad view of these trends and has some very interesting insights about how some of the Global Trends that Louise Shelley documents and analyzes, have very concrete manifestations in the indian case and in more broadly in developing countries. So, with this i will invite miss shelley to give her presentation of the book and then well have an openended conversation where i hope you can also participate. Again, thank you very much for being with us. Louise. Thank you for the incredibly generous introduction, and i see in the audience some of what i call tracksters, people who are part of our intellectual community who have gone off, as you said to dangerous places and done cuttingedge research. At the moment, the topic of conversation in the United States, the front page of the newspapers, the news, is isis. But a year ago at this time, nobody was thinking about isis. But i finished this book dirty entanglements last november, and one of my conclusions in the book was that syria would be a safe haven and an incubator for terrorism. So what was it in the analysis of dirty entang. Ments that made me so concerned about the threats we faced out of syria . There were five elements that i identified in the book. The potent si of the combined elements of the entanglement, corruption, crime, and terrorism and these three elements, which existed in syria, exist in mali, exist in other places in the world, have a much more chaotic and destabilizing effect than what we tend to focus on in the world which is, at the moment, the relationship of terrorism and crime, or as the carnegie is focusing on now, the relationship of terrorism and instability and corruption. Secondly, the enormous Financial Success of nonstate actors. Has written about in his book, an illicit one has seen the enormous rise of nonstate actors and their roles in the economy, and were dealing now with isis, which is the richest terrorist organization that has ever existed, and that brings us to the third point of dirty entanglements, the increasing economic role of criminals and terrorists as employers and participants in the local and global economy. Isis has the money to keep individuals on payrolls to round a patronage system and participate in oil sales through the Global Economic system. The fourth point is the del tierous impact of crime on terrorism, on communities and political order, and what were looking at in this region and which isis is operating, is detroy political or, destroy communities and a criminality through its kidnappings, trafficking of women, its brutality, its destroying communities that could stand up to it. And the fifth point is the incapacity of states and multinational actors to successfully challenge transnational crime and terrorists. We are not being very successful in countering the role of nonstate actors because our political, economic order is focused on state actors and the issues of the 20th century or earlier, while were dealing with 21st century challenges. When i came up with this title of dirty entanglements its not just that entanglements is a catchy word. According to the principles of physics, when you have a process in Quantum Mechanics of particles being entangled, they influence each other even when theyre apart, even across long distances. And that is what were seeing with this phenomenon in the real world of dirty entanglements, that once these processes, the corruption, crime, and terrorism, interact, they are not confined to a single space but have an influence that extends much more globally. We see all of this with isis. Todays frontpain story in the Washington Post is of gangster who snatched a syrian rebel fighter and were to deliver him to isis. With isis huge financial resources, they could pay hundreds of millions hundreds of thousands to the gangsters, and in this corrupt environment, in which there is no border security, the gangsters, isis, could exert their influence. So there we are with the dirty entanglements on the front page of the Washington Post. Look at the lead article today in the New York Times. Its talking about the large number of youth who are leaving from tunisia to be fighters in for isis. What we have in tunisia, which was one of the key places in the arab spring, is a corrupt environment in which there is little hope for youth and their future. And that is one of the key factors that i talk about in dirty entang. Ments, that youth are driven often to transnational crime or to terrorist organizations because of an ansons of employment or an enormous frustration with their absence of futures in their society. So, all of these factors that were looking at, that were identified in the book, are key elements of why isis is such a successful organization. Its Financial Success started with seed money from the gulf, elicit trade in cigarettes, and such bread and butter crimes of terrorists as extortion, robbery, smuggling. And their economic role is they provide employment, they deal in trade, and theres not been a very successful challenge to their activity. A military approach, as im going to say later, is not cannot be successful alone when an organization is imbedded in the community and provides employment and services to those under its control. So thats what the book says that led to my conclusion that we would see a major threat out of syria. What also does this book suggest that are outside the common wisdom . The first point is that were all part of the problem. What we are observing is not just going on in the developing world. Not just their problem that we are removed from. The beginning of the book starts with the attack on an oil field in algeria, in which workers come from all parts of the world to find employment, and to help make these oil fields function. And they are attacked by an al qaeda affiliate in north africa. But where did the money come from that funds the group . A lot of it, over 100 million, came out of kidnapping payments, and who paid these kidnapping payments . To get back their hostages . European countries, international corporations, through payments to recoup their hostages. But its not also the criminal activity that makes it all part of a dirty entanglement which were part of. This region in north africa, where the arab spring began, was region in which the leadership of north africa managed to drain the resources oust their country into the safe financial havens of the developed world. And its not the only region from which money has come that denies development and opportunities for youth. So, we are all part of the problem. Secondly, the book suggests that we need more than a military approach to terrorism, because unless we find a way to provide employment for the youth of the future, unless we find a way to deal with corruption, not just us but people in the region, that undermines the integrity and the respect of the society, we are going to be dealing with many more future isisss, this was said by 2009 president s of a north african country, and it is something that i concur with. Another point that i make in the first chapter is that all three elements for the dirty entanglements were present in the 9 11 attacks on the United States. The first chapter examines or reexamines the most deadly terrorist attack of the 2000s, and the crime and Terrorism Associated with each one of them. If you read the 9 11 commission report, you will find no references to corruption in the United States, even though the hijackers that boarded one of the airplanes did so with drivers licenses that were obtained through corruption in the dmv in northern virginia. And theres no reference to some of the crimes that helped facilitate this in terms of document fraud, visa fraud, and other activities. So, this is we have had this our country is not part of the dirty entanglement, we dont have corruption, we dent have crime, and its not linked to our terrorism and thats not true. Third, or fourth, i should say, we talk about terrorist financing but the second half of the become focuses in great depth on what i call the business of terrorism. That is, the terrorism function with many of the same principles and logic as legitimate businesses. After all, they need to diversify products, they seize targets of opportunity such as the oil fields that isis is going after, they seek to maximize profits and reduce risks. They seek to secure the best personnel they can, so that isis recruitment at the moment with the internet is targeting English Speakers that can help run their internet site. Many of them have criminal backgrounds that can help support the criminal activities that fund isis. So, were looking at something that is a business, and we have to understand how terrorism functions as a business and just as organized crime always used corruption as a central element of the business model, in fact our law on organized crime in the United States is called, rico, because were dealing with corrupt organizations, were dealing with terrorist organizations using corruption as a key tool of their activity. And therefore we need to put this problem of corruption front and center in so many different aspects of our analysis, from the analysis of the rationale for terrorism, what perpetuates it and what funds it. So, to leave some room for discussion and commentary, i want to conclude about what we can do about this problem. First of all, we need to stop stovepiping it and addressing just parts of it. In the United States, and internationally, we have groups working on corruption, we have groups working on terrorism, we have groups working on transnational crime, and these processes are linked and need to be understood and addressed in a cohesive fashion. Beyond that, were talking in the United States often about needing a whole of government approach to combating terrorism. But what we really need is a whole of society approach, because its not sufficient for government alone to be fighting this problem. As i mentioned earlier, elicit trade, lies at the core of the funding and business of terrorism. Yet how many publicprivate partnerships too we have with the corporate world that is monitoring this elicit trade and their commodities and is trying to develop solutions and to get government responses to this. Also, theres another role for the Business Community. A year ago, at this time i was in colombia, for the 15th 15th anniversary of transparency in colombia. Colombia is a country that has come back from the brink in relationship to terrorism. And part of this has been the Business Community has worked with Civil Society, has worked with government, to try and bring back a society so there is more respect for the rule of law. And so that is another central piece of this. But theres also another piece of this. Theres a role for citizens. Not just reading the newspaper or journalists writing and doing expos, which is very important. But because elicit trade counterfeit goos, cigarettes, familiar pharmaceuticals is an important part of this, and citizens need to understand there are costs sometimes of buying that cheaper commodity. And that cost may be that it is a counterfeit good that is going to fund terrorism. Therefore, there are no simple answers, and part of the is that we need to be also thinking about how were engaging eenormous youth and population growth of the developing World Without adequate employment, without hope for the future, and what does it take for a Development Strategy that can help create jobs and prevent some of this alienation were seeing and the absence of employment. There are many, many challenges, as i say in this book there are overarching problems were facing of the growth of mega cities, where governance is difficult. Climate change in the bay of bengal that is dis disdisplacing individuals and creating reef fujiis refugees, a rise in sectarian conflict we have seen for centuries in the world. There are many, many problems of which these dirty entang. Ments are consequences of them. But we need to think of this in an integrated fashion, and not aspirate phenomena but those that require a sophisticated, integrated approach of all elements of society, not just in the United States but the international and with we begin to do this we can begin to address the oten si oten si of the dirtle inning tanglements and if not i can see them spinning off as particles and having an unfortunately galvanizing force for economic and political and social instability in many more parts of the world. Thank you. Thank you. [applause] thank you very much, professor shelley. We now the Carnegie Endowment have a central subject of the book is the role of corruption, how corruption is an enabler, facilitator and you cannot understand transnational crime without paying attention to the issue of corruption. You have been studying corruption in detail in india and elsewhere. What are your reactions to some of the points that professor shelley raises . Sure. Thanks everyone for coming. I first want to thank you for asking me to comment on this wonderful book. The book is about terrorism, organized crime, which i know nothing about, and only under generous definition do i know anything about corruption. So thank you for including me. I want to make a couple of points on the question you raised about the link with corruption. Before die that let me Say Something quickly about the book, which is that this is an incredible read. It was kind of overwhelming when i was reviewing the manuscript this week, how much material is packed into these pages. There were three things i really enjoyed about this. One is the meticulous research. By my counsel some of the chapters have more than 250footnotes, so tremendous amount of work which has gone into this on a wide range of subjects. The second is i think one of the moats important takeaways from the narrative that louise prepared is this idea that the nexus between criminality and terrorism is not just a problem that one can restrict to in poorly governed states and theres a. An interaction with the legitimate economy and wellfunctioning states, where that we need Pay Attention to and as you rightly said, theres a tendency sometimes for those in the west to think this is a problem which doesnt involve our system. And you make a very persuasive case it does, whether its our Financial System or Information Technology systems and so on. The second the third thing i liked about the book is her focus on, as she put it, the business of terrorism. That she provides a kind of Industrial Organization of terrorism, if you think of it as an economist, and it reminded me of the fabulous study that of the sicilian mafia, and talk beside the way way in which its structured and tries to integrate its addition to take advantage of certain business opportunities. So, congratulations to you on all of that. Let me now throw out a couple of points, some of them these are questions about corruption. You make a strong case in the book, which i think seems totally right on the money, which is that corruption is both a facilitator as well as an underlying cause of both crime and terrorism. Struck me that its actually much more complicated than even that, because corruption also can impede the response to the crime in and terrorism we care about. So when you talk about the eight deadliest terrorist attacks in the 2000s, one of those was the attacks in mumbai, which many of us remember watch those horrific images of the hotel going up in flames. And i remember when i was interviewed, i was struck by in some of the investigative reports which came out of that, why the response of the Law Enforcement was so poor, part of it had to do because of corruption in th