The third step that the u. S. Could help with is the finalization of the provisional constitution. Which deeply ambiguous contradictory in many ways. I think the three steps can be a strong starting point. Its unrealistic to expect that. Well have a clearer picture three years from now. Thank you. Well, i mean, as we know here in the United States federalism remains extremely contentious issue even in the halt halls. In places far away especially when they dont have formal links with these local administrations or they are in very hostile relationships with them as they have been with juba land. The important point that people need to recognize is that alshabaab benefits from these types of agreements and benefits from these tensions and one of the biggest problems we have in the juba land is well juba land is somewhat or stable and it is arguably less of a safe haven for alshabaab the fact that juba land is being dominated by a single allows alshabaab to recruit from minority clans who feel they are not being represented by local administrations and to some degree alshabaab is waiting a game in other areas as well waiting to see those political tensions comes to the floor and using that as an effect if recruiting tool to rebuild their ranks. Thank you for your answers to that question. Senator flake thank you for your patience. No problem. There a lot of questions i have particularly on federalism and mr. Aynte you addressed it just now in your remarks provisional constitution is deeply flawed deeply flawed document that contradicts itself. You referring mostly to the federalism aspects of that . Senator its all across but federalism is the most important element where it really contributes and puts Member States on a collision course with the federal government in that it gives the division of power between them is not clear in the document as it stands at the moment. Its only provisional when it can be proved. You mentioned four things that you think are expected of people and what they expect out of a central government. Do those implied to the folks in somaliland and other lands as well . It sounds to me as if speaking with some of their representatives they dont want to share in the countrys resources. They have their own and they want nothing to do with the rest of the country. Am i off base there or is that their assessment . Senator i think they are seeking an outright suspension from somalia for the last 20 years. It has done a remarkable job of stabilizing itself and really laying the foundation for Democratic Institutions and democratic processes of course with some flaws. Punta is not seeking secession from the rest of the country but it does lend other regions in somalia over theory under the federal government and in practice very much like somaliland carrying out its business entirely independently from the federal government. Again this is because of the vacuum that exists within the federal government. I do though think that given if a concerted effort is made to clarify the institution and began this National Dialogue on federalism i think there is a real opportunity for engagement with ponsa land and federal Member States. The last panel was talking about the government and at one point referred to it as a democratically elected government. Its not quite that simple. How is it viewed in the rest of the country . I know going back to 98 or so with the first attempts to appoint traditional elders who would appoint a constituent assembly of some type of the last iteration of this experience and it didnt take hold. What makes this different here . Why is this government going to be viewed as anything different than the last attempt . Or is it . I mean i think or i would agree with everyone or most the significant flaws with the Selection Process. That said i think there was a greater attempts to ensure that at least the majority of the elders who were at this constituent assembly who then selected the president were at least somewhat more representative than they have been in the past. It certainly wasnt a perfect process and there were lots of allegations of vote buying and fod rigging and extortion and so on and so forth. I think people focus mostly on the fact that the Prime Minister and the president who were selected or at least a president who was elected and the Prime Minister who was selected for were both notably not involved in the civil war in any major way and so this was kind of scene is a bit of a break from the past and to be perfectly honest president especially with someone who came from Civil Society who we ended up working with in the past and many had worked with in the past and we are quite excited about that possibility. That certainly doesnt mean that the government is perfect but we certainly see it as an improvement on past regimes. How realistic is the 2016 timeframe for elections and we seem to have backed a horse with this government if it doesnt take place. What is our position . What do we do . Mr. Aynte do you have any thoughts there . As i said i think elections are not impossible but highly improbable to take place in 2016 as we understand elections. We might look at another a talk or see as called by some people. It could be that we might have elections in parts that are little more stable than others but considering the slow pace of progress in the last year and the work that needs to be done i would be pleasantly surprised if elections take place in 2016. What are the options after that . I think it will depend on what the stakeholders and small you want to do the way forward. Of course not many people are looking forward to the idea of an extension. The e. Word is seen as and no one wants to hear that and i think there has to be some sort of a Selection Process that then brings the country to the next level. I should finally say though that the reason why this government is possibly seen as a little bit more hopeful than the previous ones is people are seeing this as one step toward the greater goal of consolidating the gains that have been made over the years. Its part of an incremental process. Mr. Lesage with regard to the failed raid last week the last panel didnt want to go there. What are the implications for the future . Does this embolden the elements we dont want to embolden and what happens and what are the practical effects of this . And did it surprise you that one we launched a raid and it ended as it did . I think the most important recent development in terms of strengthening alshabaab and exacerbating the threat that the movement poses to the region is the west gate attacks and we shouldnt let this essay sensationalism of the events over over the weekend overshot of that and the president that attacks that for jihadists both within the east africa region but potentially on a global scale. Not to undertake a suicide bombing operation that is highly complicated but to launch a commando raid against civilian targets and kill such a large number of people at a small time. I do believe that this has sent a signal to al qaeda senior leadership. Whether or not he was the actual author of this operation it sends a signal that alshabaab is al qaeda affiliate that needs to be taken seriously and his leadership at this point is not in question. They can launch these sorts of attacks and so preventing their affiliates and preventing their external Operations Group and the Larger National insurgency movement that gives space for those extremist to operate preventing them from continuing to hold such a base in somalia is a critical element here. Something like the operation that is reported to have taken place targeting a specific individual alshabaab leader or connected to alshabaab that could do temporary damage to the groups contest set back an immediate Operational Plan but only by removing this groups safe haven and establishing a functioning National Federal government and addressing many of the clan tensions in the underlining the clan support and religious support for splintering is going to be the actually the only way to reduce the threat long term. Thank you. Appreciate it. Thank you senator flake for your engagement and your interests. I have many more questions i would like to ask but given the lateness of the hour i may ask one or two briefly. Doctors lesage the last line of questioning suggests that we now face time pressure to support an expansion to move its operation a reach, its numeric strength but that we are at the same time running against a clock to transition to a legitimate Somali Security force because the longer security across the country is made possible by an external Multinational Force that is not in somali the more that creates the opportunity for recruitment and for alshabaab to simply cast this as an Occupation Army rather than a liberation force. Would you agree with that . What you think is the amount of time we have and how pressing is this for Regional Security . Senator given the length of time it is going to take to build up a professional and selfsustaining Somali NationalSecurity Force including its Army Component its intelligence component in its policing component it is urgent that we begin work on this today. It is same time i think its going to the urgent for the next several years at least five to continue their significant support of the African Union mission in somalia and tell the Somali National army forces actually come on line and can take over some of the static security positions currently held. It if they were to leave today the Somali Federal government would very likely fall very quickly. That is because the Somali National army today is an amalgamation of different clan relations that used to report to warlords warlords and if you look at the various brigades of mogadishu that make up the army today is pretty quick to identify which warlord and faction a sub along too. Their loyalty and interoperability between various sub plans just in the city of mogadishu is markedly low and frankly the Somali National army that is being funded by the United States and European Partners and mogadishu is crafted from one plan. To the concern of all other clans in the regions of South Central somali and somaliland. For this reason we actually need quickly to expand Somali NationalArmy Recruitment and take the clan militias from most other areas that either are part of independent administrations or proxy forces for ethiopia and kenya and use salary to integrate them into National Force overtime and train and equip them and develop something professional but that is going to take several years. Thank you. The issue of remittances which you mentioned in passing has been a real concern of mine. Describe that he would please the role of remittances for the United States and how the somali economy and the growing capacity in mogadishu nationally would be affected if the mechanisms for transferring remittances were to be blocked and what do you think we can and should do to try and sustain a pathway for a legitimate vetted senator somalia is larger than all National Aids combined. Its about 1. 5 billion a year coming from somali diaspora in the u. S. Europe australia the middle east and africa. There are about 2 million somali scattered around the world sending money back to relative so its essentially the most important lifeline the Somali People have. I think the banks and other Financial Institutions have legitimate concerns about the rules and regulations both here in the United States but also in the u. K. Where the east bank is blocking or about to block remingtons companies to open up Bank Accounts within barclays. I think with the u. S. Government can do is to work with partners in the u. K. To try and create a framework whereby remingtons companies can continue to send remingtons legally to the Somali People. The alternative is if our quays goes ahead with its now promised to shut down the hole while a companies in the u. K. The alternative is many people will go underground and our ability to see the activities of monies transferred from the west to somalia will become more constrained. So i think this is an urgent matter and one that has serious implications both humanitarian as well as security both here for the United States but also for the Somali People. Thank you and a last question for me. The Previous Panel spoke some about the model of an african led indirect action by the United States financing african led all two lateral force as being a possible role model foam moral trees lead role regional securities. If we are at this point it inflection where it amazon succeeds or fails and if actions like the attack in nairobi put significant pressure on regional partners like kenya djibouti and ethiopia how vital is it for our interests in the continent and globally, how important is it for somalis is it that the regional partners continue to get bilateral support from United States to stay engaged in this fight and to not withdraw . Well as i mentioned in my testimony i believe as dr. Andre lesage mentioned absent amazon the small a National Government would collapse. And i think amazon is done a remarkable job over the last three or four years to push alshabaab back at enormous cost in blood and treasure to the troop of the countries. The largest challenge really to some degree is that while this has been a very effective military operation va you at the moment still lacks the capacity to kind of make this both an integrated political and military operation which is why we have created this kind of unwieldy hybrid between the u. N. Which is a political mandate and au which has a military mandate and it has always been very difficult to try to meld those two organizations together since they have different cultures and they oftentimes have different leaders who sometimes dont get along and sometimes they do get along. Currently the u. N. Has transition to a new mission with a new secretary special representative for the secretarygeneral. That mission was just established in june so its very early for us to be able to see how that will work. He does have instructions from the u. N. Security council to cooperate with the au. Those instructions are not very clear as i mentioned in my testimony and they think it remains kind of a work in progress. Unfortunately as i think all of my colleagues would agree ultimately the solution in somalia needs to be a political one and amazon needs to work within a political framework to achieve that goal and kind of melding those two organizations and then have them working towards the same goal has continued to be a challenge. Thank you. Senator thank you. Just one question. Mr. Aynte with regard to the diaspora is very in both obviously with 1. 5 billion a year in terms of remittances . What is the feeling that the diaspora generally about the National Government and the situation there . Can you give some sense of feeling . Well i used to be part of the diaspora myself back home and i know its i know know its not monolithic and im not trying to suggest that the can you give us some sense . Some people in the somalis diaspora has welcomed it in huge numbers. I think a year into it many people have realized that they probably had Higher Expectations than realistic and are understandably disappointed with very slow progress that has happened over the past year. But i think many somalis continue to be optimistic and engaging in whats going on in somalia not only in a limited sense but the diaspora that do dominate the political structure across the country to the federal government where spending is 50 of the entire parliament is made up of the diaspora and Something Like 60 or 70 of the cabinet any given cabinet is the diaspora. The diaspora vital to what is happening politically socially and economically. Sometimes theyre engaged in sometimes holding the government accountable to its national vision. Thank you. Thank you senator flake and thank you to our Witnesses Today the first and second panel i will remind all of us where we began which was the impact of the Government Shutdown on the capacity of different agencies and departments to continue to carry out our development our diplomacy intelligence and Security Missions and im grateful that all of our witnesses were able to come and testify today and appreciate senator flakes cooperaticooperati on in this hearing which is part of our ongoing discussion about a role in somalia and the region in the world. I will keep the hearing record open until friday of this week october 11 so that members of the committee who were not able to join us might submit written questions for the record and with that this hearing is hereby adjourned. Jamie lisa mark and matt for that terrific discussion. I am with lisa on the central value of automation and simplicity. Of course the conundrum is if the effort and energy and complexity that go into creating automation and simplicity