Among u. S. , china, and russia, there are many other players. You also started to bring that out in your presentation. The rise of china, especially economically since 2010 against backdrop of Global Economic and financial crisis and the youre oh zone crisis has changed everybodys calculations. We start looking further afield both in the asiapacific and also europe and see that everybody is factoring china in in a different way. In many cases sometimes to russias detriment. Not just an issue how russia perceives the relationship with the United States against backdrop of the relationship with china but how russia, United States, and other countries are also managing their own complex relationships and trying to figure out how they also pivot towards asia and china. If we look at the asiapacific, another of the countries youre intimately familiar with ambassador roy, japan is also in the process of trying to figure out its relations with russia and also china. Proposed behind the scenes a new asiapacific security arrangement. Many of you will be very well aware Prime Minister abe of japan has been very eager improving the relationship with russia. There is a couple of major points, obstacles in that relationship. Both of them related, in fact. One is the fact they have yet to conclude a peace treaty since world war ii because largely a stumbling block of territorial dispute over what the japanese call northern territories and russia calls islands that were seized. Several of the islands in the chain seized by the soviet union in the closing days of world war ii. Theres been many japanese attempts, russian attempts to resolve this issue. Were in, again, another phase of this, which is, again, driven by external factors. The japanese are very much concerned about what they now see as an existential threat and worsening of their relations with china and hoping to have russia as counterbalance. Russia would also like to counterbalance to the United States in the Asian Pacific but also to china in the future. Because as youve already suggested, there are worries and concerns that russia that not just a shared neighborhood in central asia but also asiapacific region. In 2013, the russians and chinese engaged in some joint naval maneuvers, which have been repeated on a number of occasions. Most recently they have been ebb gauged in naval maneuvers in the mediterranean. After the maneuvers in the asiapacific region chinese warships took a scenic look back, not directly back to base and wen over the top of japan through the sea and scared bejesus out of russians and chinese. After 2013 chinese were quite open about this but hadnt notified russians about the chosen home, through International Waters. You can imagine going north back to japan rather than going north to go back to china and around japan instead of going south got some attention. After this we saw uptick in russian interest in relations with japan. You can see theres a lot of complexity in this relationship. China also launched an expeditionary trip by one of its massive icebergs into the arctic. Again, going through International Waters but very close to russian territory, close to the arctic, much of russia lies in the arctic. After that russia was quick to close up the water to prevent expeditionary trip by more Chinese Military vessels into those waters. Each team you see a very quiet but significant reaction from the russians reflecting the concerns you raised in your introduction. So thats the asiapacific. Quite a lot of complexity there. Russia and china not just thinking about the relationship with the United States. Not just japan but what happens in korea and relations with the north and south that become factors in. You talked about eurasia and central asia. Theres been a turning point with chinas relationship in the ukraine but china made it clear quite frequently it doesnt always like activities and behavior of russia in the european space. Not only did china make its displeasure heard over crimea 2014 but during earlier war in the broader region with gorge in 2008, you may recall that russia made the step to recognize independence of the two secessionist territories of georgia and china most notably did not. In fact, china provided cover later in 2008 for the Central Asians who resist recognizing the independent states. There was a meeting at the Shanghai Corporation in central asia, considerable pressure on the Central Asian states to also recognize independence of these states. And at that summit, Shanghai Corporation organization, the Central Asian managed to resist it and mate it quite clear were doing this with support of china behind the scenes. Again, theres complexity. Theres also been from the Russian Point of view a bit of an unseemly russia by European Countries both east and western European Countries, United Kingdom, france, germany, serbia, greece, a whole host of countries to sign onto chinese infrastructure initiatives and to seek chinese funding through the ai. B, Asian InfrastructureInvestment Bank for highspeed rail and road linkages. Weve yet to see this constructed. Russia increasingly looking less like a player and economies of the region where it might have been in the past and china is looking more of a competitor in Regional Economic calculations as well. So i just want to conclude there by just echoing what ambassador roy has said. Although this is a very important relationship as well as Strategic Elements, theres a great deal of shared perspective, also elements of competition and other players in this mix that we also have to factor. Even though im suggesting should we change a title to the United States with russia and china frankly none of these states are to lose, not all about those, many mother players here, a much more complex environment. Again, to compliment you on your introduction, we have to understand that complexity and take a much larger perspective when were really trying to think about whats happening here. Thank you. [ applause ] thank you so much for putting the relationship, triangular relationship in a broader geopolitical readings and look at the various countries big and small, how to look at the relationship. Also when you mentioned you changed the title, i cannot help but start laughing because when we send it to you, i saw you i decided to wait until i at least had something to say. This is certainly Different Countries have different perspective. Multiple perspective on that issue. Certainly we use that provocative to try to stimulate a real debate. Thank you very much. A great honor to be on the distinguished list. I really cannot claim the expertise i was credited for. I work on china and consider it my job to work on chinas foreign policies, developing countries and regions, provide what i understand as chinas perspective of the recent developments in the sinorussian relations. In the chinese perspective, western observers reach one of two conclusions about sinorussian relations the western observers either seeer merging Moscow Alliance changing existing National Order or they would see russian meeting out of expediency. In the chinese perception, neither position really accurately reflects the current nature of the relationship which in china is understood as genuine convergence of National Interest despite the presence of competitive and alienating elements. At least from the chinese perspective third option with China Partnership with other alliance or alliance with other alliance is possible and could be durable. Especially if both china and russia agree that their overlapping Strategic Interests outweigh their diverging ones. So chinarussia relations have been on a very positive t trajectory since ping has been in office. He and the president have met 13 times in both bilateral sites and venues both have membership. Those multilateral include bricks Shanghai Corporation and g20. So jinping seems to see the world through similar lenses and reached similar conclusions about the country in the international system. They both believe their countries are in a strategic disadvantage visavis to the United States. Putin believes that russias great power ambitions are being swatted and undermined by the west and tried to reassert moscows interest in the regions. On the other hand china sees the u. S. Rebalancing to asia at best as a denial of chinas strategic space in the region and access to western pacific. And at worst, an attempt to contain china. The ukraine crisis and the deterioration of russiau. S. Relations provided additional momentum for closer ties between beijing and moscow. For china the crisis forced the United States to refocus at least some of its attention back to europe as pivot to asia. Beijing enjoyed more space, visavis u. S. And more leverage visavis russia, vulnerability and isolation increased. In addition to strengthening chinas hand in energy negotiations, moscow has become at least more moscow has seemed to become more willing to cooperate in sectors that were previously restricted, for example contributing statements to beijing last month as an example the two sides confirmed the progress they have made and they will make the eastern route of the sinorussian gas pipeline, which is expected by both countries to become operational in 2018. Russias Largest Crude Oil producer also reached several deals with Chinese Companies including signing of 20 stake of this unit to beijing and prices, 40 stake of the eastern petrochemical to china and a joint development of a petrochemical plant in russias far east. China and russia also signed ipr agreement, aerospace and aviation corporation, which is believed to pave the ground for russian sales of the rd 180 rocket engines to china soon. Beijing believes that the new regional dynamics made moscow more open minded and accept Economic Belt Initiative across central asia. China understands very well that in the early days of the initiative, in 2013 and 2014, had very strong suspicion and reservation about the initiative in traditional sphere of influence. Nevertheless given the so far favorable reception of initiative by Central Asian countries and that the possibility of actual benefits it could bring to russia, russia seems to be more open minded and interested in what russia can gain from the initiative, especially in terms of infrastructure development. So we know that chinas fund and Development Bank committed part of the funding for china railway. If successful it could mark new page in the corporation. The other consideration of russia is also to connect and integrate as the initiative with Eurasia Community for china exclusivity and dominance. It is nothing new for china that there are concerns about russia within china and advice verse, because it is a peril of proximity and history. Chinese will always remember that however much we dislike the United States, it is russia who took most of our lost territories. Similar in russia, there are also voices warning against chinas territory ambitions about those territories that leads us to chinese migration. Putins nationalism in china is perceived to be not only aimed at the west but also aimed at china. Some chinese observers speculate that is precisely the reason why russia is reluctant to sell its core military technologies to china and reluctant to open up its economy to chinese trade and investment and to allow for more chinese participation in the russian far east. In southeast asia, china is suspicious of and antagonized by russias strategic and military ties with countries like india and vietnam. As an energy importer, china also believes the interest in lower prices of the Energy Resources and interest in oil and gas assets in russia fundamentally differ from that of moscow as an Energy Exporter. So repeated hiccups in the western route of sinorussian gas pipeline is an example of this conflict. Chinas economic slowdown has affected its future demand for energy. Given diverse sources of natural gas from central asia, china is increasingly hoping to have a better negotiation about the price for natural gas and joins the Development Team in russia. This is not necessarily what russia is interested in. Nevertheless, the chinese tib to make nice with russia. And as they have at least proudly acknowledged we have worked closely with russia. From the chinese perspective Strategic Alliance with russia has many concrete benefits and factors can be managed, not eliminated but managed. This is particularly, too, when china fu said dealing from a ru is at a strategic advantage. So calm up of points that the chinese analysts would like to make, including one with the 3,000 mile long border, russia has the most impact over chinas national security. And vice versa. A sign of russia hostility is undesirable and unlikely in the near future. This point was emphasized in an earlier articulation. Russia shares chinas interest most. Most have Foreign Policy aspirations that make them targets of the United States. Both feel their strategic spaces are being oppressed by washington. Therefore china and russia share a common interest in, quote, maintaining the balance in the International Politics and creating a more just interNational Order. A certain point is among all powers russia and china probably have the most similar ideology. Both consistent of Economic Development path. Both reject military interventions. The fourth point is that russia and china are strategically complimentary for each other. Russia, in terms of the Foreign Policy style, the chinese feel that russia is good at confrontation. The chinese are good at maneuvering. One is Energy Exporter and the other is importer. One has Natural Resources, the other has the money and the cash. So the last point despite agreements or complaints inside the Chinese Community from time to time, the consensus in china is still that the border has been centered. For decades. So no one should realistically expect china to claim what was given to russia years ago. That case has been closed. As russia and china survey their political landscape, theres a lot of things to unite them. Hour, history has taught them the perils of alliance. The former Alliance Relationship has both sides confidence in the wisdom and visibility of a similar arrangement. That does not mean that china and russia would not align their positions on issues they see coming. Such an alignment will enhance the security and economics of both china and russia. It is in their view beneficial to maintain the balance of the world order. China and russia align positions against the west while maintaining a distance from each other would be more effective than Alliance Relationship. Last, but not least, just to point out a major weakness of russia ties lies in their economic relations, which is fragile and subject to easy influence by external factors. And very much lags behind the political intimacy between the two. While china is russias largest export destination and larger import supplier, bilateral trade with russia only marks about 2 of chinas total foreign trade. Last year the bilateral trade dropped by 28 . Including 19 drop of russia export to china. This trend has continued this year. During the first three months of this year, the bilateral commodity trade dropped 12 . The drop of the price of Natural Resources the deappreciation of the russian currency and the chinese economic slow down contributed to the deterioration between the reses. However, in the long run, how do you improve the structure between the two and diverse fie their interest in Industry Trade are some questions that beijing and moscow are trying to answer. So ill stop there. Thank you very much. [ applause ] an excellent presentation. And so articulate. So effective. Sometimes i mistake you as a spokesperson for the Chinese Government. I am not. You have your own view im going ask you. Now we ended up first i will ask a general question for your view, and ill have a view from each of you. A set of questions is do you see the emergence of a new or can the trilateral triangular relationship be managed in a more cooperative conflicting matter . Now the ambassador mentioned her article. In that article, she wrote a quote from the chinese perspective. The relationship should not be considered a game in which two players or against a third. Do you think that the third [ inaudible ] that was a general question i was asking each and every one of you. Who would like to begin . I think it is feasibl