Test. Test. Test. Test. Lets look at the americas. Were fragmented. Were splintered. Aside from nafta, theres, you name it. The pacific alliance. A lot of different things. But there isnt one americas. The crown jewel we do have is nafta. And i hope we also think about the role that our region plays as we are competing with other regions in the world. Hemisphere, go to asia. That is a reality. And it becomes an economic reality and a National Security reality. And a massive shift of wealth from the east to the west. If we could get our act together regionally and build Energy Supply chains. We have the oil. We have the gas. And this is the time when we can be doing that. And the seventh largest economy in the world. The seventh largest economy in the world. Our southern neighbor and canada will always be one of the most developed per capita income economies anywhere. The world has changed in 23 years. So the labor chapter, the environmental chapter. Look at rules of origin and think about nafta was signed before the internet took over the world, right . So think about the digital economy. Online marketplaces. The cloud. The app economy. The internet of things. This is an area we can have, the u. S. Can have a significant advantage. If we can get to a point where we can negotiate a better agreement where its not a zero sum game. Where one party wins and one party loses. Thats not what trade is all about. Its about growing the market. I think the question that i would hope were asking as we go into these talks whenever they start to happen. How do we make nafta stronger . For all three countries. And how does north america better compete with the rest of the world . Those are really the two strategic questions. Everything else, i think, its tactics. And politics. Sort of appealing to the political circumstances in an individual countries. I think we should be working on Bilateral Agreements with mexico on immigration. Bilateral agreements and trilateral agreements on border security. I had the opportunity to work with president sadio on a major study we did to come up with a Bilateral Agreement for low skilled workers from mexico. Because right now, low skilled workers have to go to a black market. So were essentially just outsourcing the labor that our Companies Need to a black market. Why not negotiate some kind of a an agreement . Those are the things i think we should be focused on if we have the right attitude and not this idea were going to win and lose or were going to show them or put our foot down. We know from history and history looms large in our relationship with mexico that thats not going to work. So i want to thank all of you for your interest in this. I want to thank you for your leadership. I want to thank you for your commitment, but above all, i hope that we can be a voice of wisdom as this process starts because theres an awful lot at stake, not just for next year but 10, 20 years down the road. Thank you very much for being here. Its a pleasure. Thank you. [ applause ] thank you, very well done. Thank you, secretary gutierrez, for taking the time to be with us today and secretary, for your important leadership on this topic at such a pivotal moment. Thank you very much for your comments and your insights. And thank you all for joining us today for this incredibly timely and important discussion. Im jason, the director of the adrian arts Latin America CenterEconomic Growth initiative and ill cap this discussion today with the esteemed panelists. The timing couldnt be more on the mark as pier mentioned the outset, Rex Tillerson and john kelly will arrive in mexico with an objective of trying to calm the waters. Im sure we can guess what will be part of the topics in tomorrows meetings. Security, migration, the economy, border issues but of course, this will be against a backdrop where a once constructive relationship is now under threat. And politics, politics especially on both sides of the border now will be as important as policy or potentially more important in finding common ground. And it comes just over a week after Prime Minister trudeau came to washington, a visit that raised questions if one potential casualty of this new u. S. Approach could be broader north american integration. That would, of course, be a huge loss from u. S. Jobs lost to our strategic footing. Intertwined with the three north american economies simply keeps us safer as well today and we have an allstar panel to do so beginning on your right. Peter, ive had the pleasure of working with the last few years and every good thing youve heard about peter is correct. Hes one of canadas premier thought leaders who held an impressive number of posts in the canadian government including as serving the minister of defense and minister of Foreign Affairs for a year and a half. Most recently, his attorney general and justice until 2014. Baker Toronto Office a firm in which weve had the good fortune to collaborate on a number of different conferences. Thank you for coming out for this. Next to peter is paula stern, the founder and chairwoman of the stern group which she found in 1988. Shes also truly a wealth of knowledge and im privileged to call paula a Dear Colleague as she serves on the Atlanta Council board of directors. Hard to find someone with both the expertise and experience of paula. Shes one of my first calls on any traderelated matters. The International Trade commission and trade commissioner for nine years, analyzing and voting on over 1,000 trade cases involving a broad range of industries and issues and next to me is Rafael Fernandez and also, syracuses university of public affairs. Youre really the ultimate expression of the strong u. S. mexico relationship. I have had the pleasure to know rafael, work with him a number of years. A prolific writer, having written and coedited more than 30 books on u. S. mexico relations and u. S. latin america and mexicos Foreign Policy. Definitely somebody who knows what hes talking about. Rafael also Foreign Policy advisor to felipe calderone. Heres what well do. Well spend the next half hour or so taking a deep dive on a number of different issues beginning with tomorrows meetings in mexico and then moving on to north american linkages as a whole. The future of nafta short to longterm repercussions of todays environment and the path forward and were going to leave plenty of time for questions from everybody joining us here today. A lot to cover and ive asked the panelists to keep the comments short and if they go long, ill jump in to keep the conversation flowing because a lot of ground to cover. Lets start off with tomorrows visit, actually, both secretaries arrive in mexico city tonight. Border security, Law Enforcement, trade will be at the forefront. Theyll meet with president as well as secretaries of interior foreign relations, finance, and national defense. Perhaps, peter, starting off with you. Given the new relationship and i think President Trumps personal interest in driving this agenda, what do you think can be realistically accomplished at this point . Well, firstly, i think i want to thank peter and yourself and the Atlantic Council for the invitation. I think firstly, its been clear to us from a canadian perspective that the president s quite serious criticisms of nafta have been aimed undoubtably in the direction of mexico. The visit of President Trump with trudeau here last week i think demonstrated that. That the word he used was tweak, not tweet. Tweak. When it comes to the relationship. People jump when he tweets. With respect to this upcoming meeting, its an opportunity to maybe step back and the u. S. Officials, tillerson and kelly who were going have an opportunity to hone in on the the legitimate concerns around security. And i think if they go back to the basics of the security as being perhaps the primary concern thats been expressed by this administration. That may allow them to, i dare say, rethink some of the rhetoric, particularly, around the wall and i fully expect well have a discussion on the wall. And at the same time, i think it will allow mexican counterparts to make a very strong case for the continuation of this unprecedented relationship here in north america. How integral it is to the success of all of our countries from an economic perspective, but from an overall quality of life perspective. Lets go back to basics here. To make America Great again, you have to make nafta great again. So i agree with many of the comments, all of the comments, frankly, of secretary who spoke the need to modernize this agreement. So i think this opening in this visit tomorrow is a tremendous opportunity to recast what has perhaps been a wrong footed approach and go back to the basics of security, improving some of the concerns that do exist in an agreement that is 23 years old when it comes to nafta. And not retrench or double down on some of the rhetoric, but really, hone in on just how important nafta is and i know that that was part of the approach that Prime Minister trudeau took last week here this washington. Paul, on the trade front. Obviously, secretary is not part of these discussions tomorrow. So what, and trade, in addition to the wall and border issues and Law Enforcement cooperation is obviously front and center. What do you see being realistically accomplished tomorrow on that level whether its behind the scenes . What do you see as far as the potentially public statements that could come out . Obviously taking into account the folks traveling from the u. S. Side are Homeland Security secretary and our secretary of state . Well, im glad you asked about trade. Because we heard about one elephant in the room which was immigration in the opening statement, but i really think the elephant in the room is trade. Maybe theres two elephants here, but at least. Its a big room. The fact is the president of the United States of america ran successfully on a trade agenda. He said two things that he wanted to get done. One, he wanted to reduce the trade deficits and the second, he wanted to throw out those, quote, dumb agreements that were made by, quote, stupid officials. And nafta was numero uno on the list. And said on day one, he would move against both the nafta and the tpp, the Transpacific Partnership agreement which had not yet been ratified by congress but had been negotiated. Thousand, now, he did that with the tpp and with nafta, its clear, he had discussions already with the mexican president. Those phone calls and personal conversations went badly. And i think that mission of the two secretaries from the United States who were going there, tillerson and kelly is to try to smooth and deal with the backlash, the naturalistic backlash which is making president nietos position even more difficult to negotiate a new nafta. So its one to just kind of smooth down and the other thing i would like our secretaries to do in this visit is to put the trade issue in a context and i think we should do that here as a matter of fact as well. As thinking folks. Trade agreepts aments are a subf trade policy. Theyre microeconomics. What drives the trade deficits. What drives the destruction that comes from competition globalization, technological change which has affected our voters and disaffected our voters and made them anxious is all these other matters that are both macroeconomic as well as technological. So we need to put this nafta agreement which is old and needs fixing into a proper context. Economically, otherwise, we are, as a nation and with our neighbors, canada and mexico, well find ourselves in an impoverished reduced state, lowered growth and lowered productivity and we will not be gaining on the competition with the rest of the world that we had enjoyed. You make an excellent point of what could be accomplished by tillerson and kelly specifically with regard to trade and one is smoothing over the nationalistic backlash and secretary gutierrez said you cant humiliate a country to the bargaining table and underestimate National Pride in mexico. And also, important to emphasize, these are two men who know mexico very well. Who have deep relationships with the Mexican Government from secretary tillersons time and the head of u. S. Southern command and these are also strategic agreement. One, not necessarily the israeli economy and rafael, paula mentioned the political environment that exists right now. The political environment that secretary tillerson and kelly will see when they arrive in mexico city tonight. If you could compare the political tenor between two countries right now to a past moment in this relationship, what would that be and is there a his for ka precedent for the point in which the relationship is right now . Let me start by saying something about my recollection of newly appointed secretaries in the u. S. I remember vividly working for calderone and janet napolitano, Homeland Security came. And came to mexico. The meetings went very well and they were key for the good communication between them and our foreign minister and also with president calderone. The visit of Hillary Clinton was amazing. She came very well prepared. President calderone was prepared. And the meeting solved an important issue. Met an initiative. We were getting black hawk helicopters for the mexican military and coming with those on the 14th, president was leaving with us. And thanks to hillary, the comecome helicopters came. These early trips help to understand the complexity. Maybe that mexico needs is that were the friend. Were the ally. Were not the enemy. The complexities of the relationship with mexico. I would say i never thought that in my lifetime, im seeing what im seeing. Trump has been amazing. He has created the perfect consensus in mexico from the far right to the far left. We all hate mr. Trump. He made mexico a political pin ya that. Migrants, called them things. So i would say, and if you want to draw comparison, i would say, i would compare him to ambassador wilson in 2011. This is in the popular image in mexico. He plot against the mexican revolution and the assassination of francisco. I would say, we compare him with president who sent the u. S. Troops to invade mexico in 1846. I have never seen this consensus in mexico. Mexicans are rallying around the flag. And yes, two politicians that have been defeated of trump, of course, and monroe. Hes seven or eight points. And hard to trust and i would say, president nieto has received a push wide because trump is the public enemy. Not only that, but nieto has once again a sense of purpose. He has given the u. S. mexico relationship a sense of urgency and made an important change in his cabinet and hes focused. Once he has focus, doing purpose, doing fairly well. This is the end. Were in the 5 year of his administration. The political times are coming to mexico but i would say that nieto, they have benefitted a lot from the way mexicans hate mr. Trump. Perhaps knowingly at least a variety of folks who dont know, its a cabinet for the mexican president ial election which will occur in mid 2018. Pierre, you want to jump in there . I want to underscore that throughout the history of north america, there have been other polarizing figures. Lets be honest. This may be a new standard, but personal relationships in politics matter, maybe in the extreme. I recall early days in my tenure as foreign minister, meetings with p. Atricia espinoza and thee have always been issues. Trade issues, lumber and similarly with mexico. But the ability to sit down and have an open, honest discourse, develop trust among ministers. Not only from the very top but line departments. U. S. Governors. Mexican governors. Premiers in nova scotia. Chambers of commerce. Those matter as well. So i dont think at this early stage, we should sound too much alarmed. Yes, there has to be pushback and yes, the early signals and the list of priorities that President Trump put out there, particularly around trade are cause for alarm. But i think youre going to see in the coppiming days and tomor may be a good example of how these ministers make a connection with their opposite number and allow people a little breathing room to step back from some of these positions because in my estimation, we have to move away from the personal and back to the practical about what is going to pull the economy forward collectively in north america because of the tremendous competition that we will face from asia pacific and other parts of the world. We had seen, you know, events like brexit that have also caused tremendous discord and future elections in the European Union pose that threat as well. But teresa mays visit with President Trump is an example of a relationship that could be rekindled in terms of the u. S. Great britain relationship. And worth mentioning the United Kingdom as they extricate themselves from the European Union with brexit, theres a lot of unknowns but a possibility to renew and perhaps establish trade relationships with Great Britain for mexico, canada, and the United States. So from every situation comes opportunity. Ve very well said. Good by the trade minister. They went to canada and great news. Apparently, the Canadian Foreign minister said we will go trilaterally. Very well received in mexico. Thats important, paul. I want to go to you on the importance of the north american integrative market but a quick thought on Prime Minister trudeaus visit last week. There was a lot of concern after that visit about where rela