Transcripts For CSPAN3 Thomas 20240705 : vimarsana.com

CSPAN3 Thomas July 5, 2024

For americas map by the esteemed geopolitical strategist and New York Times bestselling author dr. Thomas barnett. Dr. Barnett book analyzes the current landscape and unpacks the complex impacts of Climate Change and demographic dynamics, exploring humanitys collective future in a thought provoking manner. His book and the strategic drivers he identifies is a reminder how interconnected our world and how they are contaminated currents that require our care and action to preserve and advance our nations that is top mind here at deloitte. Our dedication and commitment to National Security runs through the very fabric of our firm. We are proud for our decades Long Partnership with the federal government, including within the defense, security and justice sector, the services in different agencies. As the Worlds Largest Global Professional services firm, we know the value of agility in face of National Securitys ever evolving. Recently, the has embarked on some exciting pioneering work that addresses issues related to nearpeer competition, which has become paramount in todays geopolitical context. This is where our partnership with throughline comes in. Weve been working with through line to develop a new global collisions lab. Dr. Barnetts book and it us thinking about how we should navigate these Uncharted Waters and to capitalize the opportunities that theyll present in the future. The lab features are new asset which we call the foreign influence risk index, which is a powerful tool that helps clients better understand and address the influence of foreign actors. In closing. Id like to thank you for being here and for sharing passion and commitment to National Security. Now im going to pass it over to Scott Williams whos going to the owner and founder of third line for a few words. Scott, over to you. You. Good evening. So i just have a couple of talking points and well try not to be duplicative. First, i first met dr. Barnett during my navire days in Senior Executive development program. I got to go down to uva, boars head in, and we all know what that was like. And, uh, and tom, as well, as tom friedman were both presenters, the Global Affairs and military strategy segment and i remember his powerpoints i remember his visuals and his law and order teachings and so years later, i had the chance to hook up him. And what were going to see tonight is really the hard work. Tom and our visualization team. And so really glad to be here. Hes been decoding global for 25 years or more. The idea of bringing a lot of this thinking into the world were dealing with today has been really and id just like say, i think back to my navy world and there were really two things that as we started the company, one was the idea of bringing thought leadership into our client spaces and to the partnership with global firms. And so the idea of a partnership with deloitte has been central to the company from the beginning the idea of working together with with tom and what were doing and the book is launching today so, so excited and without further ado, mr. Thomas barnett. So were going to a q a period following the presentation. And if you want to log on at mint. Com through your smartphone, provide that code, you can ask a question and well cultivate those questions and well how we can get through them as much as possible. Following this presentation. So id like to thank deloitte for hosting this event. The collaboration between deloitte and throughline and myself putting these ideas together. Its been nothing less than spectacular for me. I didnt anticipate writing another, but when this offer came through and the opportunity to work with data, visual experts and with illustrators like jim nuttall, who drew most of the illustrations, all of the illustrations, his daughter had a hand, several of them as well, that youre going to see here tonight. It was just too cool too much fun. One of my favorite blurbs so far in the book is from an old colleague of mine. She said its a graphic novel for futurists. And when she sent that to me, she was concerned i would take umbrage at that designation. And i wrote and i said, thats absolutely fantastic because thats really what were going for. Were talking to younger generations. The book is geared for millennials and for gen zs because this is a grand outline for how we can deal with things. Huge structural changes like Climate Change, like demographic between north and south. The south with a 2 billion youth bulge still to be processed the north experiencing or could describe as demographic collapse in several instances, china already and then that global middle class thats arisen in the last 2030 years which is largely centered in the global south. So what im going to argue here is that were heading from basically an east west of world to a north south kind of world. Those are going to be the dominant dynamics. And that all by itself is a big enough change to justify kind of grand strategic thinking. So im going to tell im a father of six. I am deeply invested in the future. Okay. Black lives matter to me. Diy, esg, all that kind of stuff. You know, all very real and important and connects me to the future that these kids are going to inhabit. And i like to point out my two millennials and my four gen zs a lot of the things im going to describe here tonight. Theyve been living in that world for the last 20, 25 years. And i want to explain any of it to them, they have to explain to me on a regular basis, you know, not to use certain terms and not to make certain expressions and not to use certain descriptors. But they dont have to think or process this whatsoever because. Its a very real world to them. And i try to remember them whenever were and doing this kind of thinking, you know, these the people who are going to step forward. What im going to describe here is a zone of turbulence between now and say roughly 2070, 2080, where these three structural changes, Climate Change, demographic collapse and the emergence and the demands of a global middle class are all going to intersect. Any one of those three things would be a big enough structural change to kind of dominate a century. And we got all three going on at the same time. But the notion is, look, beyond todays problems and ask yourself what kind of superpower we want to be in 20, 30, 40, 50 years, because were not going to be the same set up that we have now and go all these tremendous pressures and changes over the next 50 years. So as a thought experiment, id like to start off briefings by just saying, you know, everybody understands agency the concept of end of the season you can sign with another franchise you can move on, you can pick the team you want to be with as a green bay packer shareholders season Ticket Holder just went through that problem with Aaron Rodgers and the new york jets. Okay, so very familiar with this imagine on a global scale one Day Free Agency for nation states, individuals, parts of nation states. You could just im oregon. I want to go with canada instead of the United States. And so im going to sign with the canadians for the next 20 years or Something Like that. So put these five as the five major franchises, china india, eu, the United States and and the question i ask to contemplate is once signings are done, which brands would be bigger whod be turning them away and whod be losing . Maybe so much so that they werent a superpower at the end of that process. I think we need to think along these as we move forward because identity, citizenship, nationality becomes of multiple identities that young people future generations of leaders can adopt can undertake. I think its one of the reasons why patriotism and National Identity are lower. Theyve been in decades really lower than theyve been in our entire history. There is such a Competitive Landscape out there for young people in their identities. If were not offering them the right kind of brand. Okay, you know, when brands in the supermarket to take them off the shelf and historically nation brands get stale, get old, they get taken off the maps. Look, the soviet union was a completely thing right up to the moment when citizenry no longer believed in it and then it evaporated. And that can happen. It can happen to any country in the world. And weve got some experience with that sense of in the last couple of years. So im going to tell a story in six parts. The first one im going to describe is our creation. My argument is the rules we took from how we integrated the united. Thats what we projected upon the world very successfully. So heres a map i love to draw. Heres the state aligned with a country with same gdp, noting the in population size. So indias gdp roughly the size of california, even its 36 times the population. Heres the rest of the map. Youre looking at the freest trade in the world. The Free Movement of money, goods, people around the planet. Youre completely in what you can do inside. This mini globalization. And on that basis, we are the avatar for globalization, the source code. This is 2 billion people, when you add them all up seven times our number which gives you a sense of how good we are doing this, but how it is to subject a country to that kind of opportunity. Because not only a worry creating, say, 25 of the worlds gdp, were creating 5 of the worlds pollution to. Okay, so we have a of an awesomeness to. Im arguing that we basically thought to replicate that around the planet after the second world war. Our goal was to end world wars. If you look at it like that, weve been enormously successful not just ending world wars but triggering the awesome growth of the Global Economy. These last 60, 70 years. So im telling you, were the worlds oldest and most successful multinational republic. Were globalization in many. I like to argue that our identity as americans is the most important identity any us will have. Were going to have all sorts other identities. Green bay packers. Season Ticket Holder. Father six okay, but collectively, individually, what we do as americans alters this planet like nobody else. And thats why identity with the United States is crucial. In my way of thinking, we created system that was built on rules without a ruler. We purposely sought to raise up other countries peacefully. Now that succeeded in doing that rather broadly across the world, were kind of scared by our creation. The frankenstein monster imagery from earlier because its no longer a world that we can shape as much as it shapes us. Its also not a world that resembles white america, the future, globalization is overwhelmingly nonwhite, nonamerican, non european, nonwestern, and that freaks a lot of. Our political systems out because they no longer see future. They recognize themselves in. And thats where youre getting a lot of the Political Polarization we got on in the system. So theres a quick argument. America made a world okay, but that tremendous success come tremendous costs. Okay. We created a global middle class, grew up watching these movies and Catholic Grade School its all have nots. The have nots are only going to get worse. Its all going to be pestilence, going to be famine. Its going to be just disaster upon disaster. I was scared growing up in the late 1960s, early 1970s, by all those educational the truth was something that nobody predicted. The rise of a global majority middle class. Okay, its not the middle class. We got used to in the 1950s or sixties or i will you for the average millennial, theyre closer to that global middle class terms of expectations than. The historical definition of the middle class in the United States. They took the haircut, frankly, for the profligacy of the boomers and the gen xers far. But the reduction of poverty, the growth, the global middle class, the greatest in Human History in, our country engineered it. But with that came tremendous outcome in terms of the environment, the span that we draw here and across the middle, we call it in the book middle earth, it stretches from the equator, 30 Degrees North and 30 degrees south. More than half of humanity. The bulk future middle class consumer. And 3 to 5 billion people. Were going to be subjected to temperature ranges and precipitation ranges historically associated with the saharan desert, which is not densely populated, which has very governments, because its a tough place live. If youre going to put many people under stress in that part of the world, youre going to trigger big time change on that basis. Theres no doubt when add up all the things weve done to the planet, weve altered the atmosphere, putting a trillion tons of carbon into the atmosphere, a trillion tons is roughly equal to the weight of every on earth. Today thats how much weve shoved into air in terms of the land weve reformatted three quarters of the land outside of antarctica in terms the water weve acidified, oceans weve altered the level of the oceans to a degree never before recorded in Human History and were living through the sixth great mass in this planets history overwhelmingly caused by Climate Change, overwhelmingly engineered by the United States. Okay, im not arguing against making the world a middle class centric possible. Im not arguing against that at all. Im just saying with tremendous effort, that tremendous comes, tremendous cost or what scientists identify now as the anthropocene, this notion of the human epic. When roosevelt and his wise men set in motion that International Trade order after the second world war, they did not imagine that they were going to create a new geological age. But thats power that weve unleashed. Third point north south integration alluded to it earlier. This alone is a huge change. But think back to your Jared Diamond guns, germs and steel. The why part of the world ruled the tall parts. Now its better to be tall than wide because tall means you two options as climates shift so middle earth as we describe it experience that tremendous difficulty. We saw some of this previewed us during the summer from hell last year temperature ranges, precipitation and ranges, water usage is shortages where you got the city of phenix basically saying its too dangerous to go outside and were going to have to curtail future development. Sun valley as a response, we see Insurance Companies pulling out of florida and california yet so some of these things are coming to our mailbox in terms of bills and it gets harder and harder to deny it. But we want to focus our attention, this middle earth band, because thats to be put under such stress that either we start thinking about, we collectively deal with that stress or people are going to be put on the move. Big time. What happens with Climate Change is essentially to australia is worth of livable arable land in the lower latitudes goes away no longer arable or livable to is worth arable livable land appears in the northern quarter. I call this the greatest real estate transaction in Human History. No money changes hands. Guess which side is unhappy . That transaction. Okay, so if were going to have this kind of benefit, this kind of change, we got, adjust to it because been put on the move species all over the world are moving up elevation and toward the poles climate velocity. My favorite black swan event right now i just saw this couple of days ago university of wisconsinmadison. I went to college, has this fun tradition getting about a thousand pink flamingos and sticking them in the ground in the main quad because its such a joke. Pink flamingos in wisconsin with our harsh winter. Okay, pink forms showed up in Port Washington about an hours drive south of green bay. The famous frozen tundra. Okay, so my black swan is actually a pink flame event thats telling how nature is responding. And we either deal with that reality or were going to find ourselves building a wall that. Cant possibly keep that climate velocity that everybody is going to be put on the move with it from entering our borders out of desperation. Thats Climate Change. Now lets talk demographics where the disparity between the south and the north is profound. Still, a youth bulge of about 2 billion in the south, weve got demographic collapse starting to occur across. The north, the balancing act is hard like to distinguish between what happens in a demographic transition and how allows your economy to connect to the Global Economy. Because its a very story. And what im describing here is basically how you get connected. The golden ticket, lets say, to take your economy and put it in global value chains if youre lucky and you achieve a Demographic Dividend by first lowering the death rate 0 to 5 age range, eventually people start having fewer babies. But theres a lag between discovery and that action. And in that lag, theres an artificially created larger than average. Okay, we had one right after the second world war. It was called the baby boom. Okay thats welcomed. Then grew up into teenagers. Not so welcome. We fear the crying. We fear the revolution. Its 1960s america. Then the age into the workplace and you got your ticket to the Global Economy. Lots of workers relative to dependents. The problem is youve got much time to cash that in before you start stockpiling people. And this is happening across the world. My point in raising this is every model that weve seen since

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