Henninger, jason riley, and mary ogrady and bill mcgurn. Dan, i remember we had a visitor from the Counterterrorism Group in the white house a couple months ago telling us this person telling us on background that they were concerned about europe. Now we see it manifesting itself here at the christmas season. Absolutely, paul. I was thinking very much the same thing. It was just a month ago, recall, that the pentagon made it known that they were going to move on an invasion of raqqa which is the Islamic StateHead Quarters in syria. This is a time when the iraq army and the Coalition Partners were trying to retake mosul. I thought thats a lot to bite off at the same time. But the pentagon said back then that they were concerned that the Islamic State was going to try to project terror into europe and elsewhere, and clearly they were right. Not merely europe. Yemen and jordan have both experienced terrorist attacks in the last week. Obviously the west has to be on alert. The german situation raises the questions of if, in fact, some of these western societies are adequately sensitive to the nature of the attack. Well, and i think that in germany in particular, jason, you have a couple of problems. When is the migration issue. Angela merkel, the chancellor brought in a million refugees from north africa and syria. A your ago two years ago, and some of those terrorists seem to have slipped in. And then you also have the problem of the germans dont do very well from all reports on surveillance, and intelligence. So far germany had avoided the fate of france and brussels and some other places. But not this time. And this was the softest of soft targets. A Christmas Marketplace visited not only by native germans but tourists alike. This is a huge blow for the terrorists there. Angela merkel herself remains popular. Shes well above 50 but the refugee policy isnt popular. Around 80 of germans want more restrictions. Shes going to be coming up for a fourth term. Thats not until the fall. There is time for her to deal with this situation. Something like this does not help. And you have to think there will be pressure on her to reform this policy. For all her popularity, and its true, i think this is the sort of thing that could topple here, mary. She started back pedaling in the spring, actually, about the immigration policy. The fact of the matter is that these incidents happen with home grown terrorists as well as with migrants. I think the point about intel surveillance, yes, vetting migrants is important and germany took a huge number relative to the size of the country. But in the end, really, this is something that is going to have to be fought in the middle east. The wins of isis or the potential or the perception that isis is winning is very empowering for terrorists in the west, and i think thats what germany and the u. S. Have to work on is action in the middle east. And on that point, the ankara murder, thats really the one consequence of syria. Obviously the terrorist is responsible, but germany has not done very much at all to help us and help in syria or the middle east, because they just dont want to participate in any military operation. I think further to marys point, what were seeing in europe is the failure of middle eastern policy. Even the most generous country cannot take everyone from all the disruptions there. And we need a reasonable level of stability in the middle east. A lot of people have washed their hands of it. And syria is the best example. And to marys point, for the United States theres a lot of debate over whether we should let people in. I think the german example shows theyre not very good once people are in at separating the good guys from the bad guys. One of the problems in the United States is the people trying to do that with intelligence, remember, the Mapping Program in new york city and how much it was opposed. If were going to take people, we need good intelligence. The mapping of groups of people that they thought, particularly students, some came from Different Countries i think it was more fundamental. It was finding out pakistani neighborhoods. Youre trying to separate the lawabiding majority from the minority. And the left just has a war on the kind of intelligence that is correct what do you think about Donald Trumps reaction . Donald trump said, look, this proves i was right all along, and im going to, in fact, be as tough as i said i was in the campaign in blocking immigrants from muslim countries or terrorist muslim countries that have a terror problem from coming into the United States. Well, hes never been very clear about exactly how he plans to do all this. Hes spoken very forcefully, but very vaguely, and i think the one thing that makes everybody uncomfortable whether youre on the left as bill describes people who dont want this intelligence, the one thing that unites people is that we need the local, the muslim communities, the good muslims in this country to help us on the intelligence scene. So if he institutes a policy that alienuates all muslims, it will be counterproductive. You cant stop this problem unless you go to the source in syria and the middle east. If you think this is just an immigration problem, youre not going to solve. True, but this is one of the reasons he won. People are scared that what happened in germany will become a regular occurrence in this country. Theyve seen san bernardino. Isis sympathizers seem to be able to strike at will. President obama says this is this norm. Get used it. Donald trump says no. Well see how he decides to implement it. Law enforcement in the u. S. 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Something new has arrived. Uniquely designed. For the driven. Introducing the firstever infiniti qx30 crossover. Lease the firstever infiniti qx30 for 299 a month. Visit your local infiniti retailer. I love toast because shes a lazy diva. [cameras shutter clicking] toast makes me laugh. [snoring] [laughs] when i walked into the shelter, i knew she was special. [toast snoring] cities across the United States bolstering security following mondays attack on a Christmas Market in berlin. As officials deal with the ongoing Terror Threat at home, theres another danger with a growing number of Cyber Attacks including the russian hacking of the Democratic National committee this year. Mitch silver is the head of intelligence and the former director of intelligence analysis for the new York City Police department. Welcome back. Thank you. This german attack, is it the future were going to see not just in europe but here for these terror attacks which are basically people grabbing a truck, grabbing a car, grabbing a gun, and just making individual or small group attacks . You know, we saw a preview of this in israel where as Israeli Security forces were able to increase their intelligence and capabiliti capabilities, the type of attacks they faced in a sense become less sophisticated. People grabbing a truck. People grabbing a plow, driving into a crowd. Or knives on a bus. Exactly. So we saw last summer in france for bastille day and now a second example, relatively simplistic, grab a truck and plow it into a group of people. But does this mean the threat overall is getting better. Or is it, in fact, just changing in a way that actually spreads more terror because if youre walking down the street and you think you could be just grabbed by a knife or hit by a truck, in a way its more terrifying. It is because of the diversity of the threat. But i think what you are seeing is a dim you in addition of carrying out the massive threats. Thats a credit to intelligence and Security Forces being that much more advanced in their capabilities and having much better connections worldwide with other entities. What youre left with is is individuals or duos acting on their own who may or may not be inspired by isis or al qaeda. Theres a report the suspect in this case had been tracked in advance by german intelligence. Weve done that in the and then dropped it. Weve done that in the United States, the tsarnaevs were on a list of the boston bombing, and then the orlando bomber, mar teen was on it and fell off. Are the agencies that have to follow these people simply overwhelmed by the numbers . Its two things. One is that there are limitations in resources. You can follow someone you cant follow someone all the time for a number of years. Theres a vetting process. A priority list . Yeah. Even the 77 bombers back in july of 2005 in london were monitored by intelligence but vetted and put down on the list, categorized as less of a threat. Number one, theres limited resources. You cant track everyone all the time, and number two there are thresholds. If someone fails to cross a certain threshold after monitoring for a period of time, most investigations have to get shut down. I think that may have been the case in some of these other examples of tsarnaevs in orlando, waiting to learn about how this happened in berlin. Do we need to change our rules to allow for a more extensive monitoring instead of having expressed limited periods . We nigmight. For me personally, one of the most anxiety inducing events was closing down an investigation when you didnt have sufficient intelligence to keep it going knowing it could be a person that surprises you in six to 12 mon month . Did that ever happen . Was there an event after that . There wasnt, but its always a fear for any intelligence official. Lets talk about cyber. Its been in the news with the russian hacking of democratic politicians the Democratic National committee. They tried to get into the Republican National committee, apparently did not succeed in that. This is a growing threat generally you would acknowledge, correct . Yeah. And i they when were talking about cyber hacking, it takes a number of different forms. One is intelligence gathering, but what were seeing here is not only the gathering of information, but then the putting it out on social media which is sort of a whole strategy. Thats a disruptive strategy theyre trying. What do you think the russians were really up to. You dont doubt the russians did it, do you . No, i dont. What do you think they were up to . Reducing confidence in the electoral process . One was to hurt the u. S. Electoral process. I think the second was to potentially wound Hillary Clinton as a president ial candidate, and then it morphed as things moved along to provide opportunity to assist donald trump. As i followed the obama administrations response, they havent done much as all. They filed a couple of lawsuits, indicted some lower level chinese officials. President obama said last week, i told putin to cut it out, and then he did it. And i told the same to the chinese president and it seemed to do good. Shouldnt we respond more forcefully . Its all about deterrence. Deterrence was an important element in the cold war. We have not established with our deterrence doctrine is in the United States. Last week something was released that said we might do sanctions, we might do indictments, and we might do covert options, but theres no information. The administration will say we want full flexibility, so we dont want to lay it all out there, thats understood. But if you go back to 2011 and iranian hacking in the financial system. 2014 and sony and then the chinese, a couple of indictments, some sanctions on north korean officials. What really have we done to demonstrate that there is a price to pay for hacking the United States . It doesnt seem apparent that there is a price to pay. So, therefore, theres no deterrent. Thats something that the next administration is going to have to face. Thank you for being here. I appreciate it. Thank you. Much more to come as we take a look back at the year in politics. From the stunning brexit vote in the uk to Donald Trumps upset victory here at home. Whats behind the populous wave sweeping the west. At planters we know how to throw a remarkable holiday party. Just serve classy snacks and be a gracious host, no matter who shows up. [cricket sound] richard. Didnt think you were going to make it. Hey sorry about last weekend, i dont know what got into me. Well forgive and forget. Kind of. I dont think so do you like nuts . Yea, you can be the greatest you can be the best you can be the king kong bangin on your chest you can beat the world you can beat the war you can talk to god while bangin on his door you can throw your hands up you can beat the clock you can move a mountain you can break rocks you can be a master dont wait for luck dedicate yourself and you can find yourself standin in the hall of fame and the worlds gonna know your name they want to have independence in a sense, and you see it with europe all over europe. Youre going to have, i think, many other cases where they want to take back their borders a and their monetary and a lot of things back. So i think youre going to have this happen more and more. I believe that. And i think its happening in the United States. That was then candidate donald trump in scotland this summer following the United Kingdom stunning vote to leave the European Union. The now president elect predicting his victory as a wave of populism goes across the west. Joining us is our panel. Bill, what do you think is behind this populous thing . No one defines populist. Its not a good or bad word. And its not always popular. I think there are a lot of different motivations for people going around. The one thing they have in common seems to be rebellion against the governing classes or what they consider the ruling elite, and in the classic sense of populism its we the people are pure and the people are corrupt. In britain, i think they had the sense they were chafing under the European Union rules and regulations and so forth. In germany i think its a lot more about migration and so forth. And in france i think its very interesting. You have le pen with the german antiimmigrant message but then a free market catholic that could be an alternative. I think, mary, a lot of this is economics. When you have growth of 3 , 4 , a lot of the anxieties go away. When it looks like the Political Class is failing to deliver peace and prosperity or security, thats when these tensions exist and populism rises. Yeah. I think the populism were seeing right now is largely a pushback against centralization and disappointment in the United States, for sure, with washington. They feel Like Washington has failed them. And they want a return to something where they feel like they have some power. And donald trump is promising to return power to them. Now, whether he does that by centralizing power in other aspects, for example, industrial policy, well see. But for sure people are were rebelling against the establishment. It seems to me, jason, if populism mobilizes people to break up the status quo that isnt working, particularly if it leads to faster growth or economic reform, breaks up some of the special interest groups, it can do a great deal of good against elites that arent listening. Thats one way populism can push things, but in some of these european areas, its not that type of populism. In france or in germany with the alternatives for deutsche, you talk about an alt right, what you have going on there. Its different. It depends on the country and the type of populism. In europe youre dealing with ethnic nationalism. I dont think we have that in the United States to the extent they have that in europe. So it depends. But its also youre correct. You have to define populism. I think if you had faster growth in both europe and the United States. Youve had slow growth since the financial crisis. I think when that happens, people look for scapegoats and someone to blame. So it might be blaming immigrants, but it might just be pushing back against the existing economic policy. Give them growth, you dont have that problem. And you mentioned france. It strikes me this coming election in france is an important one. He is pushing the most aggressive free market reform that i have seen coming out of a french candidate in my lifetime. You never see that in france. Socialists on the right is as socialist as the left. You have that message, and its an alternative to the blood soil nationalism that marie le pen is pushing. It will be a key election in that respect. It can be summed up as people saying im mad as hell and im not going to take it anymore, except when the government starts suggesting that they pair back, say, labor regulations and rules that protect people, and at that point a lot of these mad as hell people say, wait a minute, im not giving up any of the stuff that protects me. Let somebody else take the burden. Im not giving up my entitlement payments. Germany, italy, france. It has been