Into the world, they bring people together. Rose and we conclude this evening talking to nicole hurd of the college ad college advis. We have a barrier endangering our democracy because the young people are not going to college and obtaining degrees and our Global Competitiveness and democracy depend on bright young people out there. So we are marrying the idea of kids finishing themselves, and the counselors and teachers trying hard but without capacity, and Holding Hands and saying i believe in you. You. You. Rose rose funding for charlie rose has been provided by the following and by bloomberg, a provider of multimedia news and Information Services worldwide. Captioning sponsored by Rose Communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. With our continuing coverage of the brussels attacks and other issues. 31 people were killed and more than 300 wounded. Belgian authorities have acknowledged their errors, among them the failure to detain one of the attackers. Turkey said it had deported and warned belgian authorities about him. Secretary of state john kerry addressed the attacks thursday during his visit to moscow. Yesterdays events in brussels underscore to all of us the urgency of every country that has an ability to make a difference to end this evil scourge that comes from daesh and violent extremism. Rose kerrys trip to russia comes after president putin said he would withdraw most of the Russian Force now sir. I cant peace talks in geneva are ongoing as russia and the United States said progress had been made. Ian bremmer, founder and president of Political Risk consultancy eurasia group. Pleased to have him back at the table. Thank you, charlie. Rose tell me where to start. Are we looking at a any i. S. I. S. Strategy throughout europe . Should we assume if theres one cell carrying out attacks in brussels and paris, there are probably other cells throughout europe prepared to carry out attacks . Yes, and also the news that one of these bombers was actually researching nuclear work and trying to get his hands on material for a dirty bomb. I mean, clearly, they want large, coordinated these are not lone wolves and its not all about the refugee issue. Were talking about large Muslim Population living in slums, not integrated with the rest of society. In france, its 8 of the population in. Belgium its 6. The economics arent working well for the people and the politics are turning against them. Rose the attacks are coming from people who went to syria and learned some kind of craft of making bombs under those kind of circumstances and then come back. Yes, a lot of them are. Rose they all came from somewhere. They came from somewhere, and its very difficult for the authorities in these countries to get inside these communities. The United States, not only populations were talking about much smaller as a percentage, but theyre integrated in the community so its much easier for a new York Police Department representative, officer or someone else to know when there someone is thinking about getting radicalized and joining an organization. Many times when we break up wouldbe plots, its very early in the game, in fact sometimes it looks like entrapment. In belgium, france and across europe, youre not getting nuff information. Rose a failure of intelligence. Of human intelligence, an ability to get inside the communities and, also, a failure of coordination. There is, of course, a european currency, but there is not a european intelligence agency, and these countries are not sharing information nearly as well as they need to be given the scale of he threat. Rose as someone pointed out today, its even within different intelligence agencies within a nation, its not that theyre not sharing as much as simply so much is going on and different people learn different things. This is a problem that came out of 9 11, the recognition that the c. I. A. And f. B. I. Were not talking to each other as much as they should be here. Thats true. And in belgium, also finding they just dont have the numbers of people that can engage. We saw that after the paris bombings they were able to collect and filter information, but they didnt have 11,000 people on the terror list, they didnt have the agents that could actually be doing the spade work to track these individuals. One of the bombers the turkish government said they warned the europeans about when the authorities basically said, yeah, we know hes a criminal but we cant find a connection to terrorism. So again, youre watching there are so many leads and the numbers of people youre talking about are overwhelming that you need to follow, and the european societies are very porous and moving from border to border and not being followed from border to border. Rose they have passports and its a European Union. It is for now, yes. Rose you think that votes going to be impact bid this. Pretty much every political issue in europe is affected negatively by an event like the tragic ones we saw this week. The referendum is coming up june 23, so we have three months. Rose some cabinet members resigned due to supporting it. Cameron lost his chancellor but didnt make it about i his port narrowly but was a dagger about staying in the union. Boris johnson, very charismatic. Rose wants to be Prime Minister. Wants to be Prime Minister and is putting his politics ahead of that of the betterment of the nation which i would complain about except that we see plenty of it in this part of the world. Rose british politics. Indeed. But if you ask me do more brits on balance recognize they should probably stay in the union than not, the answer is yes. But if you ask me how passionately do they feel about staying in the union and thats none at all. Those who leave are feeling increasingly strong about it. Rose i was in china over the last weekend at a forum there and there were people from britain there and people from all over meeting with chinese ministers and lots of conversation. Improved dramatically. Rose indeed, but at the same time everybody was saying if print leaves the European Union it could be a disaster for the global economy. Its certainly going to be a disaster for brits. That will be clear. The best report from the confederation of british industry, they were looking at by 2020, 950,000 jobs lost and about 140 billion taken off the bridge economy and thats assuming the scots dont leave the u. K. After a british exit which itself is reasonably likely. I also think it would take at least a year to do the unwind, an enormous distraction and a run on the pound in the british markets while that happened and the europeans would need to make it painful because they dont want other countries to say look how easy it was for the brits. We want our own referendum. When you take polls across europe, you get 50 more or less from most european nations that they want their own referendum. You put it on the borders that are porous, the feeling european governments are responsible for this, there is not a lot of proeuro sentiment going on these days. Rose you said to me this evening, man, there is never been a time when so much is going on. Yeah, thats true. Rose whats going on . Every part of the world, some bad, some good, but the politics are really in flux. Think about the dramatic opening with cuba, for example. Rose we talked about terrorism. Think about the incredible, the low price of energy and what thats doing to the saudis and all the major oil producers, venezuela probably going to lead to a collapse there relatively soon. Rose how about saudi arabia . Of course, all the gulf producers, russia under less pressure but most of the other major energy producers. Rose and iran . Iran going to be producing a lot more. And that deal is happening. You have the ostensible cease fire in syria, the russians saying theyre not a part of it. North korea pushing and escalating significantly the americans exacerbating sanctions while the chinese are saying they dont want to. The number of moving pieces on the board. If you wanted to take a tour, the number of things you would likely want to hit today where things could move dramatically rose the economy slowed down . Yeah, were in a world this year, you had everyone sit doing together and recognizing, you know what . Its not a 4 Global Environment anymore, its 3 , and thats given the level of uncertainty, that makes people a little more risk averse. Rose there was a piece in the atlantic magazine by Jeffrey Goldberg. The Obama Doctrine piece. Rose yes. What did you think of the philosophy laid out by the president as to how he sees syria and the middle east and his own imperatives and how he thinks it may as important what he didnt do as what he did in looking at his impact on Foreign Policy, that his legacy may be that. This is the first time on reading this that i recognize to myself, you know, heres a president thats kind of of my generation, someone whose mind, context, thought process, whether or not i agree with it, i actually understand and this article helped me do that. Anyone out there that cares has to read this piece. Rose whats the reaction of people you know to see this president through these questions and through the gifted hand of Jeffrey Goldberg outline his Foreign Policy . Are the saudis saying, oh, my god . Are our friends in europe saying, oh, my god, he thinks were free riders . Well, you and i have talked about that issue for a while and weve talked about the saudi issue for a while but, nonetheless, seeing it on print and obama say it, the machinations of whats going on analytically in there, i think its interesting the way he has no time for the washington policy establishment and the way he treats members of his own team, not true inner circle, but everyone outside that, some very capable people with some very serious egos. Its, like, you know, you guys are causing trouble you. Read that and you realize the way he felt liberated by taking the decision many people believe was the single worst decision of his administration, syria, i dont think its the worst decision, but the fact that hes, like, i got pushed into this red line and this position, there is automatically a desire to use force rose on the part of the political Foreign Policy establishment. Yes, and specifically the idea im going to lose credibility and thats important if i dont go and bomb and by the way when i bomb, im probably going to kill civilians, they will use human shields and it wont accomplish anything, but because i need to maintain credibility, not important to me, but it is to the washington establishment rose and the council on foreign relations, perhaps eurasia. I wouldnt say that. I would like to believe washington is a part of the problem here because its more of an echo chamber, a filter bubble. Its easier when youre outside to look in. Rose i think its an Establishment Group thing. I think thats right. My point on all of this, whatever you think of any of these people is he believed that was the right decision, and rose and you dont. You know, i have to say that reading it from his position gave me more empathy for what he was going through. I think it caused a lot of damage and i think it hurt a lot of alliances. Rose hurt rappings and ht relationships and alliances. Yes. And if you want to ask has obama been successful, you want to look at when you came into office and leave office, is our position in the world better or worse. Rose and the answer to that, is our position better or worse . Its clearly worse, but its clearly better in latin america and, in part, that was strategic patience, and its clearly at least a little better with americas asian allies. Rose and how much better was it because of the cuba decision . Thats a part of it. Rose a big part of it, isnt it . Its a part of it. Rose latin america would raise that with the president every time he would try to get them to do something. True. But the fact is when he was getting whacked around by maduro, he didnt bite back. He said i know this guy is eventually on the way out and im not going to raise the bait. He did the same in argentina and now hes in argentina and he has a much better relationship as a consequence with the regime, would have much tougher if he had taken all that. Its interesting and the strategic patience which is not a doctrine, its a tool, but the tools have actually served him reasonably well. In the case of syria, theyve served him badly, i would argue not because he decided not to bomb, but because he allows himself to continue to get sucked in, in spite of himself. Rose whats amazing, when he was questioned on 60 minutes, whenever the last interview was, and he basically said, he argued that, look, the russians are in a quagmire. Theyre going to go over there, get sucked into this, and you think its wise but not wise. Putin goes there, does a certain amount of time doing what he said he would, which is prop up the government, said he was going to take on i. S. I. S. , didnt do that as well. Took on people opposed to assad. Assad is propped up, hes in a more difficult position, a better negotiating position, and says were going to leave. Even though he leaves with twothird, he says were leaving and some says that gives him some kind of influence to be a player as obviously kerry is paying attention to because hes there trying to negotiate some future of syria. Obama i have must have less empathy for obamas decisionmaking process on russia. I think he got ukraine wrong. I think he got russia on syria wrong. He clearly believed the russians were getting sucked into a quagmire not recognizing putins ability to make and implement decisions on a dime and then reverse them are vastly greater than that of any president of the United States. Doesnt have to deal with the bureaucratic restraints. So hes in and out. I think the big problem i have with obama coming out of this piece as well as what ive seen for seven years is he does have a hard time. Hes extremely thoughtful and analytical, he thinks a few moves ahead but doesnt put hemself in other peoples views easily. The thing he has in common with president bush is in their own ways theyre both exceptionallists. Rose that comes out clearly. He believes this is an exceptional nation and bleefsz and clearly says it that in the end america has to lead, everybody wants america to come up with the leadership and thats what he says happens at the g20 and other meetings coming up in september. The other thing thats interesting, it was very clear to me that obama would much rather be remembered as an extraordinarily intelligent president than as a great president but only moderate capabilities, i really believe that, and thats a problem. Ultimately, he needs to be right, even if hes not successful and even if he doesnt lead. Rose you see a bit of that in how strong his emphasis is on the rightness of his decision on syria. Hes never given an inch on that decision. Or any of the decisions. Rose what is going on in brazil . Well, i think he will be impeached in the next couple of months and that is new. The level of information against her including tapes she and her chief of staff had with lula, the popular opinion is enormous, she likely will lose all Coalition Partners in terms of the parties and probably means she cant get the votes in congress. Rose what does his presence do, protects him or her . No, his presents protects him from being arrested by a lowerlevel judge. It has to go to the Supreme Court of the land and that takes time. The facts that the tapes came out and the fact that the head of the most important Construction Firm in brazil at the head of the corruption is talking and involved in what looks like a plea bargain. I think its past the tipping point. I think there are 591 members of congress in brazil and i think Something Like 270 of them are presently being charged with major crimes. Not quite half. So it could be worse, but not by much. Ive seen this with my interactions for everyone in brazil, the olympics will be the most interesting since 1998 in seoul which brought down their military regime, this regime is gone. But i tell you, the strategic patience for obama, if i were advising the next big opportunity for the u. S. Is brazil. Once this president goes and the Vice President comes in and becomes president and we go through that, its going to be a clean slate. The same thing will happen as in argentina theyll see in venezuela, the entire western hemisphere in some ways by default and economic malfeasance but is turning back to the United States. Once they default and maduro goes, absolutely. Rose china, i just returned. Theyve announced a fiveyear plan. Went pretty well. Rose all say the same thing. Went well. They say they will grow 6. 5 to 7. They give a band, usually. Rose and they say, well open up our markets more than we ever v well allow more competition than we ever have. We understand the volatility of the market. We understand that people, because of reforming the economic picture of china, there are going to be some people that are displaced and we have 15 billion fund to take care of them. They seem to be asking the hard questions of their economy and are prepared to try to find the best answer they can within some context of who they are. There are very few leaders in the world today that are doing that, that are able and willing to think strategically about the changes that need to be made in their economy. In china, those changes are immense. Xi jinping so far has proven himself to be willing to take that on with congress and the fiveyear plan. In addition to what you said, two things, one, the anticorruption efforts are not slowing down, theyre picking up steam and actually moving up. They start in the provinces with some of the s. O. E. S, is the state enterprises, now hit the ministry. Theyre not facing opposition. Rose because xi jinping supports it. Thats great. If you had said four years ago that could be possible at this level, a million members of the communist party through an investigation process, its never happening and its happening. Second point, their growth, 6. 5 to 7, no economist believes its that number, they all say 4