Hussein khairan wasaddam husseir almost as long as gadhafi. The American Invasion in iraq brought about what was possible in the region. Could the regimes pass and what would take their place. Rose we conclude with a conversation about Virtual Reality in Jeremy Bailensons stanford virtual Human Interaction lab. People will be able to do anything you can fathom, experience something wonderful, horrible at the touch of a button and the brain is going to treat that as if it were a real experience. In other words, humans have been around for a very long time. We have not yet evolved, the brain hasnt, to really understand the difference between a compelling Virtual Reality experience and an actual one. Rose and how is it we can do this . From a technological standpoint, weve likely seen a tipple point in the last year or two years so for the First Time Ever weve had a very large industry pouring in billions of dollars with hundreds and hundreds of engineers and a problem that was very difficult to do before, for example tracking your body movements or having really light visual displays, those are getting solved now that there is engineering behind it. Rose Scott Anderson and Jeremy Bailenson when we continue. And by bloomberg, a provider of multimedia news and Information Services worldwide. Captioning sponsored by Rose Communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. Rose Scott Anderson is here, a novelist and war correspondent covering the meerld. He has a fivepart special feature in the upcoming special issue of the New York Times magazine called fractured lands how the arab world came apart. In it he traces the roots of the arab spring and the roots of the Current Crisis in the middle east. He does it by looking at the lives of six people. It is a fascinating look into the regions history, the forces of tribalism and the Global Implications of an arab world in revolt. I am pleased to have him at this table. Welcome. Thank you, charlie. Rose congratulations on a mammoth undertaking. Thank you very much. Rose knowing your background, knowing what has been sort of the focus of your life, why this now . Well, i have been reporting from the middle east for about 25 years, and i feel that weve reached a real crisis throughout the region now, the arab spring revolutions have turned into something else. I feel this is a Pivotal Moment to look at whats happening throughout the region. Rose lets look at exactly what happened. What caused the arab spring to happen . What you had throughout the middle east was, for decades, really going back in some ways to world war i, this is a colonial wars drawn after world war i, you had an entire region that really existed in kind of political stagnation, a real stasis, and what you had in one country after another were these longterm dictators. Muammar gadhafi had been in how we are for 42 years. Its very hard to say what actually triggered the arab spring but certainly huge influence was the American Invasion of iraq in 2003, that represented a scrambling of the chess board. Saddam hussein had been in power for almost as long as Muammar Gadhafi and for the first time in good ways and bad, the American Invasion of iraq brought in what was possible throughout the region. Could these totalitarian regimes collapse and what would take their place. Rose we still dont know the answer to that question, do we . I think were starting to in a lot of places and its not a good answer. Rose what is the answer, then . Take libya, gadhafi. You have a bunch of tribes, a government theyre trying to support but were not shiewmplet what is going to be demanded to create and maintain stability . Were now engaged in a battle against i. S. I. S. In libya. Right. I think libya is a great example of what happened. Libya is one of the socalled artificial states created along with iraq and syria. Rose when we say who created them, clearly it was the brits and the french. And in libyas case the italians. Rose right. So they joined together these lands that under the ottomans were largely autonomous and had little to do with each other. They joined together, if you will, the artificial states and, for a long time until the end of world war ii, things kind of went along. They had these western allied monarchs. Then around the late 1940s, early 50s, you started seeing these totalitarian regimes, the dictators come into party, the Baathist Party in syria and iraq and Muammar Gadhafi coming in, in libya. What the strong were trying to do looking out for their own power was create a National Identity in places that didnt have a strong one to begin with. Egypt is a separate thing. They go back a millennium. Strong dictators in power, when they get overthrown, what takes their place. Rose tom freedman said is Saddam Hussein the way he is because the way he is or vice versa. It becomes a chicken or egg question. Rose right. Go ahead. I think when theyre toppled and, again, you know, the first example of this was the American Invasion of iraq in 2003. What takes their place . There is not a democratic election, certainly not in iraq, you may have rubber stamped parliaments in some places, but what filled the void was a reversion to cliebl, tribal and sectarian allegiance. I think when the u. S. Went into iraq they had no idea what they were walking into and there would be a splintering along those lines. Rose did they even raise the question . Thats a good question. The few people who yeah pneusomething about iraq at the time i think they raised the issue and were brushed to the side and in some cases were unpatriotic for suggesting this was going to be anything other than a cakewalk. Rose dick cheney and others said this is what they have been waiting for, waiting for us to come in and have a dimock si and throw out all these dictators with little understanding of the lesson americans never learn is doesnt matter how tyrannical a dictator is, people in general do not like to be invaded. Rose they like to decide. Thats right. Rose so lets go through all of them. Ttunisia created a spark. A young fruit seller harassed by the government in a town in tunisia and he sit himself on fire and died from it. In earlyo eleven set off protests that led to the overthrow of the president of tunisia who had been in power 23 years. Then spread to egypt, to libya, syria. It spread throughout the region. Yemen, it spread very quickly. And today, i would say the one bright spot in the entire region if you look at a happy ending is ttunisia. Its a Fragile Coalition government but they seem to have consolidated it for the time being. Rose the question, too, what is the possibility of secularism and the impact of a sunni split, cuff an islamic democracy, all these are part of the questions. Are there answers or is it too early to tell . Its probably too early to tell. I think the tunisias have been very smart about this. I think you also have to start looking at it country by country. Yes, there are certain currents that are common. I can look at libya and syria and iraq and see a lot of commonality leading up to the arab spring in the nature of the dictatorships that ruled for decades prior. But i think in other places, its very hard to say a catchall thing of where its headed. To my mind i was initially very optimistic about the arab spring. I thought for the first time people are channeling their rage against dictators where it always should have been directed, and for me, personally, the moment where i really saw the arab spring collectively going south was, two years after the overthrow of mubarak, you had the first democratically elected president in morsi from the muslim brotherhood. Morsi made mistakes but he had been democratically elected. And two years on you had people taking to the streets, some of the same people who took to the streets to overthrow mubarak, now you have them demanding the overthrow of muhamad morsi. Its what they learned in two years. Youre asking the government to overthrow democratic. That was the lesson if you see the world through western eyes youre headed for disappointment. Rose how do you see it through arab eyes . Its impossible, im a werner. Rose so am i, but you cant see through their eyes but you can ask what their eyes see. Yes, for instance, in this article my main egyptian subject was a woman who had been a political dissident going back to the 1970s, and she saw, when mubarak was overthrown, and she saw the paralysis, the kind of rubber stamped legitimate Political Parties that they were not stepping forward to seize power and consolidate the democracy. They were waiting for big brother to tell them what to do, and big brother in egypt has always been the military. So even immediately after the square and mubarak was overthrown, she saw the warning signs coming of what was going to happen in egypt. Rose because the military stepped in. Yes. Rose and appointed by the president. By muhamad morsi. There was an interim period until the elections, and morsi came in, but his election was making sisi his administrator. Rose what do you think will happen. I think its headed for problems. Its so authoritarian. There are far more Political Prisoners in egypt than under mubarak or anwar sadat. Economically the country is really in a shambles. Talking about layla swaif, her view is perhaps they will put sisi aside and bring in someone more friendly but she sees mass protest and more violent and the tacker square in 2011. Rose who are your eyes in libya . An amazing young man from misratah, a coastal city about 100 miles from tripoli, and he had an amazing story. He was an air force cadet in quadafi air force when uhe revolution started in libya. He and his cadets were kept in quarantine three months. While the country was being torn apart and the west was doing airstrikes, he had no idea what was happening in his country, and all he had been hearing was there the regime that its western you know, westernpaid mercenaries and criminals who are doing this. So after three months, gadhafis military intelligence came to him and said we need you to do a special patriotic mission. We want you to go back to your home down of mis town and idy who the rebel leaders are so we can kill them. He did this only to discover everybody was the rebels, everything he was told three months was a live and his own family was with the rebellion. He tid an amazing sting against the regime spy master he was supposed to work with and joined the rebels. Today, hes just trying to pick up the pieces of his life. Libyas headed for as bad as the situation is right now politically or militarily in libya, economically its about to hit a wall. Its going to run out of money in probably about a year from now. Rose has a lot of oil . Quo, but their whole yeah, but all their hard currency reserves, theyre burning through. So prediction is by 2017 they will run out of money. Thats been the bandaid that kept everything going. Everybodys on the government payroll including the militias in libya. So as long as everybody is getting money from the government, its kept a lid on the place and that will end soon. Rose what are the chances the tribes coming together toght in a strong, Central Government . I think no. I think once a place like libya tears apart and libya is a little different okay, it doesnt have the secretary issue. Its all sunni. You dont have she. I cant but what you do have is centuries of these different cities, almost existing as city states, going back to the greek and roman times. So libya is this interesting case in that it was always a bit fractious, even under gadhafis time. He would say i need people from mise ratty and benghazi. Rose whats intriguing is the people who fueled the people who were on the street were not the muslim brotherhood. Right. Rose they grafted on. They did not leave it. Same thing true in tunisia. Right. Right. Rose same thing trun other parts. Syria, the urban elites. Rose formed the original rebel core, and had access to social media and used that to enhance their ranks and their strengths. Right, something you see replicated throughout the region. Rose and this was something reported and i didnt know about it until 20 minutes before the show laughter but what has been the impact of those young people there who, because of media, realize they were living in a plates which was a dictatorship or not offering educational opportunities, they were young and simply were not in a good place in comparison to the rest of the world. When you say what caused the arab spring, of course, that was a huge factor of the explosion of social media and the fact that dictators with with maybe the exception of north korea, you cant bottle up your people anymore. Its interesting, a College Student from syria, very westernized, knew a lot of things about the outside world and, yet, under the outside regime, he and his father never had a political discussion. So what did your father think of the outside regime . He said, i dont know, we never talked about it. He said the fear of the secret police was so pervasive that he said, you know, maybe the most you would ever criticize the government and this is at a dinner table, inside a family you might criticize the corrupt traffic policeman at the corner. You would never criticize the regime. Of course this also played into when the places exposed. Egypt was never as repressive as iraq or syria. When all of a sudden the strong man is in trouble or gets overthrown, because people havent been talking there is no consensus of what the do next. Rose there was a sort of unspoken bargain where the dictators said w well take care of the government, the power, but well make sure that youre okay. Right. And i think rose and you can go about your life and that will be fine. And that compact is starting to fall apart. Rose yeah. As you say, with social media, everybody i talked to, egyptians were aware of what happened in tunisia, libyans were aware of what happened in egypt, syrians were aware of what happened in libya. So it had this cascading effect in 2011 because you cant keep that information off limits anymore. Rose what do you thinks going to happen in syria . Nothing good. I sometimes think of syria the way i thought about lib nonfor a long time. Its so balkanized now internally but you have these outside players, how do you ever decouple all the different forces that have a vested interest in the status quo or keeping the country in chaos . I have a really hard time seeing area, a, exist as an intact nation at the end of this, but i dont see the fighting ending in probably a decade. I just think rose a decade yeah, i just think this goes on and on. Rose a kind of deadlock. Yeah. Rose and each being in a sense of assad regime depending on the russians and the iranians and hezbollah to a degree. Right. Rose and the rebels increasingly depend on the United States, saudi arabia. Right. What you have now is a coalition against i. S. I. S. For the first time, it appears you have a Cohesive Coalition thats really working against i. S. I. S. At the same time, you know, if you look at one player in that whole coalition, turkey, i mean, turkey, so much of the power that i. S. I. S. Enjoys today is a result of turkey, in my opinion and a lot of peoples opinion, keeping a deliberately porous border to allow i. S. I. S. People to come and go because they have other geopolitical kerns, the kurds. You look at the americans. The americans need the turks in other ways. So what you do about the border policy they have maintained. So you have these hidden agendas, and even in what looks to be a fairly overt and obvious coalition against i. S. I. S. And then what you see today is the russians now coming back. Right. Coming back. Erdogan, and because of all the problems hes having, innercreesing authoritarianism on his part, putting down a coup, and his new best friend is vladimir putin. I know. Who would have thought. Rose amazing, you see people who in some cases the iranians and the americans are on the same side in iraq. Thats right. Rose and the shia government is on their side. On the other hand, some of the tribal groups because theyre sunni have been, in the past, supporting i. S. I. S. Because they had been so badly treated by a shia government of iraq backed by thats right. Rose and, so, you know, there are these shifting and its just, you know to go on what youre saying about iraq, one of my subjects is an iraqi kurd, a doctor who is on permanent leave from the hospital he works at to hunt i. S. I. S. And his ultimate goal is he wants kurdistan free of arabs. He wants an all kurdish nation. Rose right. And another subject is a guy who was with i. S. I. S. , a sunni iraqi who i interviewed in a secret prison being held by the kurds. And just to get to the complexity of this, i asked the captors, i said, well, why havent you handed him back to the iraqis . He committed his crimes in iraq. He said, we dont trust the iraqis. If we send i. S. I. S. Guys to iraq, either they kill them outright, they dont get information, or if theyre high enough up in i. S. I. S. , they can arrange a bribe. So you think of two people who should be, you know, absolute pros rose people who are supportive of i. S. I. S. Will pay money to get them back. Thats right, but even the shia see, they dont even trust the shia government with sunni i. S. I. S. Gunmen because the corruption and secret dealings money trump and you see this in syria, the alliances between alawites, i. S. I. S. And another fundamentalist group, it can take any possible arrangement. Rose will iraq end up in some kind of tr tripar tied situation . I think so. What the kurds enjoyed since 1992 with the Kurdistan Regional government in the wake of Operation Desert Storm where Saddam Hussein could not send troops in so since 1992 the kurds have been part of iraq in names only. The americans wont let them declare independence but in their minds, th