Transcripts For KQEH Charlie Rose 20170718

Seen as someone who hasnt really thought through his response, hasnt really worked closely with the lawyers, has left many people vulnerable, has left this white house vulnerable. And if you think about the context of how this all unfolded its telling. Rose we continue with ian bremmer president of the Political Risk consults ansi eur asia group. Never in my life as a political scientist have have i seen two countries, major countries with a constellation of National Interests that are as dissonant while the two leaders seem to be doing Everything Possible to make nice nice an be close to etch a other, that is what people dont understand. Rose we con cleul julia ioffe of the atlantic about done alt trump, jr. s meeting with the russian lawyer last area. She was a good russian lawyer. But the thing is what makes a good russian lawyer isnt what makes a Good American lawyer. Its not about how how you present your legal arguments or what you find in discovery. Its about who you know, its about who, you know, who you bring the briefcase full of money to, who are you connected to, who your cliebts are connected to and how and thats how the judge determines how he or she will rule. Rose politics, International Relations and the investigation about russias attempt to influence the election when we continue. Funding for charlie rose is provided by the following bank of america, life better connected. And by bloomberg, a provider of multimedia news and Information Services worldwide. Captioning sponsored by Rose Communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. Rose we begin this evening with politics and a republican plan to repeal and replace the Affordable Care act, encountered another hurdle over the weekend when john mccain senator from arizona announced he was recovering from a medical procedure he had on friday. Mccains absence is expected to delay a senate vote by at least a week. Two gop lawmakers senator rand paul and susan colins have already said they will not support the bill. Many while as President Trump approaches the six month mark in office later this week, new polls show his Approval Ratings are at historic lows. Joining me is robert costa a National Political reporter at the wash continue post and moderator of Washington Week on pbs. Im always pleased to have him here. So it is good to talk to you, bob, after being away for a week and a half. Tell me what has happened since i was away. Anything changed here in america . Youve missed everything but nothing, charlie. With regard to this republican effort to pass a repeal and replace of the Affordable Care act it remains stalledment and for the predictable reasons that weve been covering here in washington for quite some time. This is a Republican Party that made a pledge to its base voters that it would go through with this promise. At the same time privately, charlie, many of these senators i talked to, they dont really want to pass this specific piece of legislation. The moderates think it rolls back too much of the Medicaid Expansion. The conservatives tell me it doesnt do enough to gut obamacare. No one is really happy with it. There have not been public hearings. And any real sense, theres not really been a public debate am you just have the Republican Party plotting forward, trying to do this, a president who doesnt really want to get involved with the sale of the bill. So its a dismall atmosphere within the gop here in d. C. Rose who is insisting on a vote . Leader mcconnell, mitch mcconnell, the kentucky republican, he believes that in order to have any chance in 2018, his friends tell me, that the party must fulfill this pledge. And he is putting pressure on a lot of republicans when he bringing them into his office on the second floor of the capitol. And he tells them, you do not want to be the republican who stops obamacare from being repealed. Dont put me in the position of saying you are the senator who stopped this entire enterprise. But most senators think that this, in spite of their conservative beliefs, in many respects, that this is settled law, that this has been in place for almost a decade now and many of their voters and republican governors, some of the states have come to expect the benefits. And because pem have that expectation, taking it away isnt a politically easy thing to do. Rose a lot of that has to do with medicaid . Were talking about a heal care debate. And ive watched your programs on this. And it is so different than it was in 2009 and 2010 when are you talking about the Healthcare System and you were having a vigorous debate about what that would look like. This has boiled down to a medicaid debate. And this law would this legislation would get rid of a lot of the laws, taxes but really would just roll back promised medicaid money that is under the expansion and the Affordable Care act. And its about what politics really comes down to in a lot of things, money, its about money. The states believe the money is guaranteed to them with this Medicaid Expansion and they want to keep that money. Rose even republican governors like john kasich from ohio came to washington to lobby for his own senator. That the Medicaid Expansion was very popular in ohio. And a lot of republicans are facing this dynamic. You look at senator heller, a moderate from nevada, hes under pressure from governor sandoval, a republican. You mentioned governor kasich of ohio, hes putting pressure on senator portman who is usually a rank and file conservative on these sorts of things to not vote for this bill. Its because a lot of these governors whether you are republican or democrat, you do not want to have to make cuts in your budget to Cover Health Care in your state. If the federal government has already promised under the Affordable Care act to take a lot of that responsibility. It really comes down to money and budgets and states dont want to budge if the federal government is already there. Rose i saw a poll over the weekend, im sure you saw it, that said 50 of americans now like obamacare. Because most americans, if you look at a lot of thieves polls, they associate their own Health Care Coverage with obamacare, in particular if theyre a on medicaid. So medicaid in effect has become in the eyes of many people obamacare. And that association makes passing this legislation very hard because its not just a political creature thats created by the Obama White House like it seemed ten years ago, its something that is real to people. And with the expectations in the white house, that if this bill doesnt pass, and the Insurance Markets continue to struggle, maybe democrats will come to the table at some point to work with republicans. And that if this bill does not pass you are really just looking at piece meal fixes of the Insurance Markets rather than wholesale reform. Where is the president . The president is at the white house this week, returned from a weekend at bedminister but hes not fully engaged in selling and marketing this bill to lawmakers or to the country. It is a different kind of approach than we saw from President Trump when he tried to get the bill over the edge in the u. S. House earlier this year. You had trump step back, let mcconnell take control of the process. Mcconnell is the one without can really be the deal maker here, not the deal maker president because he knows with portman what he needs with opoid funding in ohio or he knows in alaska, what he needs with the moderate there, what she needs in terms of medicaid guarantees. This is an inside game. The white house has acknowledged that. Mark shorts the legislative director is working closely with mcconnell. But you have the president really hesitant to be out there having rallies. Hes not doing that this time around. Hes not making the sale, in part because as he told me back in january, he wants insurance for everybody. Hes not really comfortable with embracing the ideaological side of the Republican Party. Even if he made the pledge to repeal obamacare he doesnt really like to do things to take away benefits frorom people. Rose the argument was that he wanted to go with Health Care First because he needed it for tax reform. Now there are people stepping forward saying he should have gone either with infrastructure or tax reform first. Does that, does that resonate with the president at all . The president publicly resists the idea that he maybe should have started with infrastructure. By privately, charlie, you can be sure, when the history of the Trump Administration are written there is going to be a lot of wonder about why did President Trump and his allies in december and january of 2016 2017, why did they go along with House Speaker paul ryan and leader mcconnell with this idea that you had to cut obamacare taxes first to lay the ground work for tax reform in the future. Because when i talk to people inside the white house, i wont name names here, this is background reporting, they say looking back they wondered why they did that. They adopted a strategy which sounded smart at the outset but there was no hard and fast rule that you have to cut health care tacks to do tax reform in a bigger sense. There is no rule about that. You could just do straight forward tax cuts in the white houses perspective now. To me, charlie, the take away, this whole First Six Months has been experience for this white house, learning experience, that they went along wth capitol hill, they have been burned in many respects in that endeavor, and theyre just trying to learn from this process. What can they control, what do they have to go along with, what do they not have to go along with. Can they imagine going to the country in 2018 with nothing, with no significant legislation passed, albeit they do have the confirmation of the Supreme Court justice . Theyre going to have some kind of argument to make. It would be about regulatory reform, theyve rolled back a lot of president obamas regulations. They have gotten a Supreme Court justice in there. But youre right, there is no signature legislation. There is a hope that something is going to pass on health care, even if its not this legislation, something down the line will pass that can be considered a repeal of the Affordable Care act and some kind of tax cuts will pass eventually, maybe later in 2017, early 2018 and maybe they can start on infrastructure. But of course the cloud over all of this is russia. Democrats do not feel compelled to work with republicans right now because they see in the latest Washington Post poll and abc poll a president who is in the mid 30st in his approval rating. A president who hasnt gotten traction on capitol hill so they dont feel the need to come to the table. But President Trump, hes not an ideaological republican in the traditional sense governing as a paul ryan wood or mcconnell would from the white house. So its hard to say exactly how 2018 will play out. But certainly they will need some points on the board to get that Republican Base out. Rose speaking of six months, i will read for you now some observations, this comes from they went out and talked to political reporters and friends of yours and asked what had been most surprising about the First Six Months. And this is what some of them said. I would love your comment, Chris Wallace said whats been most surprising to me is how little trump has changed as president. Its the same strength and same weakness he has always had. Washington hasnt been bent to his will and he hasnt bent to the ways of washington. Spot on. This is the same donald trump that i first encountered in 2011, this the same Reince Priebus and steve bannon on the same note but this is a president who has come to washington, has not returned to new york city, in any real way. Has moved here but has not fallen in love with the town. Still is an isolated figure in washington. And he has not changed his ways with twitter. He still surrounds himself with the same kind of people, with stan and hope hicks his loyalists with steve bannon and Steven Miller, his populist nationalist at his side. This is not someone who has come to washington as an outsider president and tried to incorporate washington. He has, in some ways, on his staff and cabinet done so. But tempermentally, everyone i know who talks to trump daily say this is the same trump who trusts his gut, the same trump who follows television by the minute, to understand where the public mood is. That is how he digests information. That has not changed. Rose michael wolf, called and said his surprising thing is that in the face of the onslawt he seems, he the president seems to be enjoying himself. I think the president is deeply frustrated on several fronts. He is consumed with how russia has dominated his administration. I have heard from his friends and associateds that he often he fumes privately about how russia has a grip over the public narrative, in particular in washington about how he is perceived. But he ds seem to enji hiself. He does watch television a lot. He goes to golf tournaments, he went to bedminister this past weekend. He still talks to his friends all of the time on the telephone late at night from the residence at the white house. This is still a donald trump who relishes being at the center of the public conversation, on top of every front page in the country, on every newscast. He gets happiness out of attention. And i mean that just as a reporter. This is someone who covets attention. And when he is at the center of it, as bad as it is, as long as he is there, its okay to an extent. Rose chuck todd of nbcs meet the press said im surprised he didnt make more of an effort to develop a personal relationship with Chuck Schumer and nancy pelosi. Todds per septemberive analyst there, you would think he has donated to pelosi and schumer in the past. He has had a personal rapport with them. But people close to trump tell me he has been in some ways chab writtenned at how political then again what did he expect, that schumer has been since inauguration dean when schumer gave a pretty political speech on the grounds of the capitol. He has pelosi really working in lock step to keep her conference together against the trump agenda. But in a way, its not so much about the lack of outreach on trumps part, its that his agenda, he has gone along with ryan, gone with mcconnell, and because of that, because as you said he didnt start with infrastructure for something that is more bipartisan, he is seen as Approval Ratings plummet while he has gone along with the republican agenda. And it hasnt given him much room to win the good will of democrats or to build relationships with democrats. Rose john carl noted that he has held only one Real Press Conference and has never set foot in the white house brief briefing room. That has perhaps been the most surprising thing. That the presssavvy president , the press obsessed president who is so engaged on social media and twitter and does seem to enjoy the back and forth with reporters has become so angry about the russia coverage that he has not really had the kind of daily interactions from the lecturn, on the telephone, doing the callin interviews that you would have expected. Hes really retreated from that, that whole style, and stayed with fox news for interview after interview, stayed within twitter which he can control, as his anger has grown over russia coverage. I think if the russia story ever abates you could see trump step out more with the press. But until that happens, its such a he blizzard of information and questions that are out there i think he doesnt want to engage with that day to day. Rose ian bremmer who is coming in later this evening for a conversation with me said that trump, the president s best relationship with another head of state is in fact with putin. Its lard to say. The relationships im told with heads of state are complicated. Trump wants to be treated as a grand leader on the world stage. Macron in france has recognized that. Trump loved being part of the parades for bastille day. He enjoyed being in saudi arabia in his trip throughout the middle east and how he was treated there. He built a relationship that is strong with abe in japan. He is a little more edgy with china because hes trying to confront them on trade and the trade deficit. But it is hard to say who is the best friend for trump on the world stage. Putin, of course, sees an opportunity in trump unlike hes ever probably seen in his lifetime running russia to really build a different kind of relationship with the United States thats not as hostile. But trump does not have a deep relationship with putin. Hes an opportunistic transactional dealmaking president whos not really clear about where all his loyalties lie at all times. Rose then there is chris ruddy, c. E. O. Of newsmax, who said some day historians will join me in looking back in awe at how donald trump wielded the power of the bully pulpit like no other president. Is there some truth to that . Praption with the use of twitter, though i would contest that, theres been a use of the bully pulpit but its been limited. You have a president who has last rally was in late june. This is a president who loves rallies as a candidate. In the same way that president obama loved rallies as a candidate and speaking to the people, and having that populist flair. But he has been a creature of the white house for many weeks here in washington over the last six months. He is not someone who has been out there day in, day out on television, beyond fox news. So i think he has the potential to be perhaps the biggest bully pulpit president weve ever seen because of his reach on social media and because of his use and his understanding of what creates a headline. But because of controversy and scandal, he has not fully gone in that direction. Rose finally, there is this. The russian probe, its reach to the family. And it seems to be getting even deeper. Youve got robert mueller, a respected former fbi director,s ahead of it. He has hired some of the best criminal investigate ares and criminal lawyers in the country with experience in doing this kind of thing. How fearful is the white house that that is a powerful jugger naught coming at them . The fear is pervasive. Every time i talk to people close to this administration or work in this administration, theyre wondering where are they perhaps vulnerable, personally or in terms of president , legally, politically when it comes to the russia question. An don, jr. s involvement in this meeting last summer with russia, a russian lawyer and a former Russian Military official, and Jared Kushner and Paul Manafort, former Campaign Hands has really caused alarm within the west wing because don, jr. Is seen as someone who hasnt really thought through his response, hasnt really worked closely with the lawyers, has left many people vulnerable, left this white house vulnerable. And if you think about the context of how this all unfolded, its telling. The president is coming back from g20234 europe. He has just met with putin. Hes trying to reimagine u. S. Russia relationships. Hes trying to rebuild his presidency and hes on the plane ride back and he gets the call from the new york times. Theyre coming out with this story on don, jr. So every time this president and this presidency try to take a turn, a turn back to the mid 40st, a turn back away from russia, a new story, a new bombshell seems to come right at them. And that has been the story of this First Six Months. They do all these Different Things on populism and bannon and trump and Steven Miller but at the end of the day, its the cloud, as the president itself has called it that hangs over him. Rose bob casta thank you for coining us, pleasure. Well be right back, stay with us. President trump returned to washington from france this weekend. It was his second trip overseas in as many weeks. Earlier this month he was in hamburg, germany for the g20 summit. During the annual trump sat down with president putin in a widely covered bilateral meeting. It was revealed earlier today that trump and putin had a second informal meeting on the sidelines of the g20, my guest ian bremmer broke the news of this private meeting. He is the president of Eurasia Group and a frequent guest of this program. Im pleased to have him back at this table. Welcome. Charlie, good to see you. Rose so tell me about this. The first thing i thought of when i heard it was you know, the fact that when sessions was having these meetings with kiss ill ak that werent meetings but they were you dont really need to talk about it but it turns out that is where they are conducting business, it is what it sounds like am but given the extraordinary focus and attention that everything involving putin and trump have had, and this was the one guy that he hadnt met with, he met with all the other major leaders around the world and waited on putin because it was so troafersz, then he has a meeting, with a lot of people not in it, only tillerson, the translator, lavrov, the Russian Foreign minister and putin, lasts over two hours, dont have a clear readout on exactly what was said from either side. Then on top of that, you have an hour that evening that no one has even heard of. And so look, we clearly know that trump does not care what the media has to say about his desire to have a close personal relationship with the russian president and what drives it. Rose you have suggested it is his best oneonone relationship. Its clearly his best personal relationship. But i will also say never in my life as a political scientist have i seen two countries, major countries with a constellation of National Interests that are as dison at while the two leaders seem to be doing Everything Possible to make nice nice and be close to each other. Like thats what people dont understand. Because there are clearly all these ways that the americans, at an objective reed, the u. S. Russia relationship is as bad as its been since andropov. Rose sa putin has said so, it is a terrible relationship right now. And the entire Foreign Policy establishment in the u. S. Has too but the one policy that trump, everyone says he is flipflopping on china, is it an enemy, currency manipulators, tie want, flipflops on nato, on all these things. Yet on russia he has been remarkably consistent. I want to find a way to work more closely with this guy. Rose because he has in his mind some grand strategy or Something Else . You know, i was discussing this with richard hoss on the council of Foreign Relations earlier today. And were both a little flum oxed, right. Because you flefl can say trump likes the strong man. He likes erdogan in turkey, he likes duterte in the philippines, xi jinping in china, that gets you some of the way. Like sisi in egypt. People that can get things done, sure. And you definitely can say about trump that he also is very transactional and so hes willing to sort of put his chips in to see if he can get something done. And then see how they fall. And that was with obama when he first met obama in the oval office, and with xi jinping and then maybe cools off. And also the fact that obamas relationship with putin was quite damaged by the ends. So there is an opportunity here. But you put all those things together, they dont they dont add up to where trump is with putin right now. They dont add up to subgorka for example, security advisor saying well, maybe we will give back. It is not grand strategy, what is missing here when he said it doesnt add up, what missing. So i think that is some strategy. The explanation i think we will learn either through leaks or through the mueller investigation, the explanation. Rose or from the leaks from the mueller. The explanation says more. They have just been lying and covering up too much stuff. I dont i have not believed that there has been direct collusion between putin and trump. Rose you j not. I have not believed that. Rose but are you more open to the idea of perhaps . There are two reasons i dont. Rose it also depends how you define collusion. True. But first because its hard for me to imagine that putin plus kremlin really would have believed that they could have swung the election for trump. You have to understand that these guys are as cynical as can be. And they believe that the american system is as brutal and as damaged as the russian system. That the way they see all politics. Ultimately just about, follow the money, is the way you figure out policy in russia. And so from their perspective, hillary was going to win. Because the establishment was going to figure out a way to ensure that their people ended up winning. And i think that the russians were probably more surprised than the americans that trump actually won. I absolutely believe that. But it is, and its hard for me to imagine that trump would have been. Rose but you have no doubt that they hacked and attempted to influence the election one way or another. I have no doubt whatsoever. None in my mind. Rose but where you cant go yet is a collusion between the president of russia and his government. Right. Rose and his intelligence operatives. Right. Rose and members of the trump team. Right. Rose providing them something which would have early been beyond the pale. And that they would have gotten something in return, some commitment of meaningful, you know, sort of offers to shall. Rose or perhaps they wanted to do it because they felt they had some leverage on the president and if he was elected president that they would have some advantage. It clearly seems that there were many people around trump, some quite high level that were compromised by the russians. Rose exromsed in what way . You mean michael flynn. Flynn, i mean Paul Manafort and certainly the amount of money that were talking about supporting, getting 17 Million Dollars in one year. Rose how was manafort compromised by the russians rather than the ukrainians . That ukrainian party, he was supporting was the kremlin supported party. Rose right. I mean where did he go when he was forced out, too moscow, right . That some of the carter page stuff, so i mean given the amount of attention that this investigation is giving, the number of lawyers that are on with serious capability on the financial side, on the anticorruption side, they clearly believe that these connections are meaningful. I expect that we will learn from them, whether that goes directly to President Trump, i dont have any view of that. I dont think we at this point we cant look at all of this is happening between u. S. Russia and say this is just smoke t doesnt make sense. And i think the good thing about our system is we will find out what it is. Rose let me go to iraq for a minute. The discussion of the russian probe, because you just had a significant victory in mosul, you have a kind of encirclement over raqqa in syria, the caliphate is essentially being shrunk and shrunk and shrunk. Already in iraq you have one. Biggest issues there is, what is next, or as Paul Freedman likes to say the day after the day after. Well, lets start with at least some positives which is people can now go back to mosul and start to rebuild. Rose and its one of the most destructive places, ie it has just been ripped down. Yes, yeah. Rose not unlike aleppo. Sure. But having said that, these people want to sb in their homes and humanitarian aid from the u. S. And others will be forth coming, some public, some private. And given that that is one of the things that seriously was destabilizing jordan has been this crush of my grants having an opportunity for them to return is a big and positive thing. And also the fact that the caliphate was established by isis. They had the land. They had a capitol, they could put their flag up. That did raise them money. That did get people to want to join isis, that did make it nor plausible that you would become a lone wolf but in support of this organization. And i think that there are people. Rose something that was visible to them. And i think there are people now that arent going to die because ice ises has been, is being, has been destroyed in its capitol. Rose but isis arose after the iraq war, and from remnants of al qaeda that were there because in fact, the sunnies didnt feel like they were getting a fair break. Right. Rose so therefore they found a whole portion of iraq that was not willing to oppose them because of the bad deal they were getting by the baghdad government. What is to say that wont happen again, it simply wont be isis, it will be somebody else. It is happening again. It is hard for me to imagine that everyone that was in isis has either fled or was killed or imprisoned. A lot of people say were not isis, weve been with the good times the whole time. When they have an opportunity some of those people will strike gen. There are still villages that need to be cleaned up. They will still perpetuate violence. They are operating in southeast asia. They are operating in yemen and in other countries. So i dont for a second believe that were out of the woods for isis. And i dont also for a second believe that were out of the woods in temples of the sunni problem in iraq. When you destroy saddam hussein, you destroy the bawtist party and destroy all of the infrastructure military and civil and political around sunni leadership in iraq and now the shia and iran are going to be much more in charge of everything but the kurdish region, then the sunnies are going to feel on the back foot. Rose i want to stay with the kurds and go back and raise another point. With respect to the kurds. Yeah. Rose is there going to be an independent kurdish state. I think there will be in iraq. Well, they have a referendum coming up in the fall. And. Rose does he want it soon or are they willing to wait. I think they are willing to wait because they know they have toment but they want a mark thary says we have ved and were completely in favor. That will give more legitimacy to barzani. The turks cannot say that they want an independent kurdish in iraq. Rose are they less resistant. I think they are in part because they have a state under barzani who is someone the turks have been able to do business with, they have a lot of investments there, including energy investments. They were some of the first. And it means, you know, you have satisfied a level of kurdish independence without doing anything in syria where the turks are fighting organizations they consider to be terrorists, as well as kurdish separatism inside turkey. The problem is that erdogan can never say any of this publicly because of his challenges with the kurds in southeast anatolia. Rose groups he considers revolutionary terrorists. An he considers mountain turks, which is also a problem. So you have that issue, and then you have the iran issue who also are going to have big problems with the idea of kurdish independence in iraq, that the iranians have more influence over. But over time i dont think either of those things can stop. Rose how much influence das iran have over iraq. Theyre dominant power influencing iraq right now. The United States and iraq are the two countries with the most influence over the government as it stands. But ultimately the iranians are spending more money, theyre calling more shots, theyre developing more infrainfrastructure, they have the direct religious influence and ties with the shia population there. And they are going to do Everything Possible to ensure that there is never again going to be an iran iraq war. An how much influence do they have over bashar alassad. Because of their influence over hezbollah . And because the iranians have a military cap abilities on the ground in syria too. And i think. Rose it is mainly hezbollah. But the answer there i think is also a lot. That there has been incidents in the political negotiations where the russians have been frustrated because assad feels more independent, why because he also has iranian support. The russians an iranians are working closely right now on syria and sharing military bases and the rest. The russians supported the u. S. Sanks against iran. Rose they supported the iran nuclear deal. Absolutely they did. Because so i dont feel like the russians feel like they have a longterm Strategic Alignment necessarily with the iranian government. Rose in terms of the ceasefire there is some explanation that the iranians, hezbollah had sort of threatened it and was going to come in and try to do something and that the russians said, first time didnt acquiesce and second time said no. And of course the israelis pulled out very quickly from any support of it because they felt like this didnt have any ability to hold. Rose so when you look at today, when you look at this deal that took place when the president went to ree ad and basically said im joining with the arab countries and their effort to isolate iran in the battle for sprem see in the gulf region, and then later you have this deal which the saudis and emiratis and he gpt and others, against the qatar. Yeah. Rose qataris, what is that about . I think there are a couple of things at play here. The first lets not forget that we now have a new crown prinsz in saudi arabia, capable, strong, more nationalism, the son of the king. And he wants to prove his stripes. There is a lot of opposition to him internally among the leading princes in saudi arabia. Rose within the former crown prince, who was. Rose under house arrest. Apparently under house arrest for a period of time. And you dont believe that secretary session battle is through. I think there are others like prince mataib who is running the internal Security Forces that many believe is next to be on the chopping bloc. But the point is that if you are now trying to consolidate power and the big thing that the prince solman has doon in the region under his authority when he was running defense was this very illfated yarr on war on yemen. So now he is leading the charge with a bunch of countries in the regon and more broadly against qatar. He put these demands in place on the qataris that clearly were not meant to create a negotiation or deal, they were meant to isolate and force cappitylation or basically unwind the gulf cooperation council. So i think there say domestic dynamic at play now in saudi arabia that makes it much harder for the United States or anyone, or the french or you can waitis, anyone that is trying to calm the situation down. Rose but when you talk to the saudis and emirateis you get a sense that they think this was a severe effort of a sport by the qataris. And the amir senior and president amir, in order to support groups within their own countries that were intent in overthrowing their government. Thats right. Thats what they say and thats what they believe. So the first component is the saudi component, the seconds component is the fact that trump went and said antiiran, antiiran, went to saudi arabia. Rose isolating. So no matter what tillerson or mattis would have said, suddenly crown prince solman thinks ive gt an opportunity here, im going to take it. And the third is what you said, which is that this is not the first time that the saudis and others have had problems with qatar. They actually looks like leaked a document of the secret agreement that was. Rose from the story. Before, from 2014 when there was an agreement that the qataris were going to stop supporting the brotherhood and they were going to be more cautious and temp rat what they used al jazeera for and crack down on terrorist funding and all the rest. And the contents of that secret deal were made public and the saudis and emirateis said yep, that say correct thing, which means they probably leaked it. So clearly these countries have had Serious Problems with qatar. Rose why does qatar do it . I mean i tell you why i think they do it, because they want to play above their weight. That. Rose and they also do it because they have got a lot of money. They have resented for a very long time. Rose were the junior part here. Partner in the region, thats right. Rose they take us for granted. And that has been the case for a long time am and they do feel like balancing and hedging between the iranians and others is the way to go. Rose its gulf countries the gcc also feel like al jazeera has been on one hand stirring up things against their own autocratic power. Correct, with the exception of al jazeeras treatment of qatar itself, right, pretty much Everything Else in the region f they see something they bant to criticize, they can that is not the way saudi news runs. So the saudis see. This qataris they have basically seen the muslim brother had as the future of the region. And even though qatar is a monday arcky, they think that longterm these gulf arab monday arckees arent going to work. The future is going to be more democratic, more religious, national. Rose more arab springy. Yeah, so theyve made that bet. And the saudis have not made that bet. And trump has come in and said. Rose syria syria didnt make that bet. Trump came in and said the saudi bet is the right bet to make. So cat qatar is on the wrong side and they have a relationship with iran doing better in the region but also with turkey who has sent troops into qatar to support them. And i will tell you Something Else interesting. I was when i was with haas earlier today we were talking about turkey and he said yes, turkey is a member of nato but turkey is not a partner, they are flot a partner of the United States in right now, any more, haas said that. Rose how is trump getting along with chancellor merkel. I think of the traditional american allies, the merkel relationship is by far the most challenging, by far the most challenging. And that is because merkel is the one that isnt focused you have macron and hes transactional. He invites putin. He invites trump, if he can find a way to work with you, he disagrees on climate but other things they can work on. With merkel. Rose with the assertion of a new trans. Absolutely and is doing it well and so far has popularity and when behind them is charismatic and everyone is coming at him, god bless him, right. Thats been a positive for the trench. In the case of germany, merkel leaving aside her election which clearly plays because trump is obscenely unpopular. Rose to the point where she loved obama and trump is the antiobama. She had a good personal relationship with obama, clearly the way obama handled snowden shook her. Rose or the fact he was listening to her phones. And handled it badly. And the fact that when she took all of those refugees, o bma didnt help and i know she was personally deeply disappointed and surprised by that. But i think that. Rose neither rhetorically or any other way. I think that intellectually and personally they got along very well, i think are you right. Rose he said to me, in an interview in germany, that she was the foreign leader he most admired. And i said why. And he said temperment 6789 he said shes its a bit like it used to be called no drama obama, shes the same way. Well, lets put it this way. I think that merkel probably, if trump were being honest with us, the foreign leader that trump has the hardest time with, maybe the least time for, is least comfortable with. Rose did the polander speech. Hurt. Rose hurt. Absolutely. It helped him in poland. Rose leult absolutely. But what does he do,the american president , with 15,000 people cheer him on nsm you are merkel, she didnt necessarily love the fact that when obama gave the brandenburg speech there were 100,000 or whatever it was. Exactly. Didnt love it. Rose or a million. But it was legitimate. It just came out. Where you know, trump gave a speech, he did not mention the word democracy in that speech once. Now have i to tell you, i think for poland this was a masterful speech because it was nation t was civilization, it was family. Rose a lot of people believe that the west is being destroyed. It was a church. Rose exactly it was church. And in polander that really played, that speech was written very well and it was all of these things that are a part of the western judao christian. Rose it is unraveling. But none of them have to do with liberal democracy am and for merkel, those things are utterly critical nsm fact she would argue they are more porn than the things that trump was bringing up in poland. These are two personality types if we have on a spectrum, they would be off the charts. And the fact that merkel was under so much pressure to make europe work, get brexit done and now be the leader of the free world . Like its just not happening. So i think this is a really challenging relationship for trump and its not going to improve any time soon. Rose great to see you. Charlie, thank you. Rose thank you, ian emmer, Eurasia Group. Back in a moment, stay with us. Rose we conclude this evening with a look at the controversy surrounding donald trump, jr. s meeting with the russian lawyer last summer. Attorney Natalia Veselnitskaya met with donald trump, jr. And members of the Trump Campaign including the president s son in law Jared Kushner and his Campaign Manager Paul Manafort two weeks after trump received the republican nomination. According to emails released by donald trump, jr. Himself last week, the meeting was originally presented as an opportunity to receive damaging information about Hillary Clinton that could possibly influence the campaign on friday it was reported that a russian american lobbyist named was also present, he has been described as a former sovietera spy who now advocates for russian interests in washington. The Atlantics Julia Ioffe offers a detailed portrait of the russian attorney at the center of this story in a new article for atlantic magazine, she joins from washington. Thanks for having me, charlie. Rose i did not do as much justice to those russian names as they deserve. Let me just begin with the question who is natalia and why was she in that meeting. And what is her connection to this guy from london . So as one veteran russia watcher put it, this would be like a real estate lawyer from hoboken showing up in an international scandal. She comes from the Moscow Region which is basically the suburbs of moscow, military town, very rich but also very corrupt, rife with organized crime, and thases where she cut her teeth first as a state prosecutor, then as a private attorney, so the clients then brought her to new york. Thats why she was in new york. She wasnt necessarily there to meet with trump, jr. But she got a meeting. She was there to defend one of her clients who was being sued by the now fired u. S. Attorney for the Southern District of new york preet berara t is very complicated, lots of names. But basically she is a kind of hardnosed, very tough provincial attorney who is very well who is connected to the prosecutor general of russia who is mentioned in the donald trump, jr. Emails as the crowns were cuter of russia. That he is apparently the one who wanted to pass damaging information to Hillary Clinton. Rose is there skepticism about her and that she had exaggerated her possibility . I think people just, nobody had heard of her, really n moscow. She is a really obscure figure, she is a real estate attorney, really, who has dealt with you know fixing problems between the organized crime world and the official russian legal world and the Business World that was kind of her purview. Then she got involved in lobbying against the magniskiak which is a law passed in the fall of 2012 sanctioning russian officials involved in the death of lawyers matknitsky. When you quote bill broader, not broader, who is talking to us tomorrow morning on cbs this morning as saying that she was ven dik tiff and ruthless and unrelenting. Uhhuh, yeah, she was a good russian lawyer. But the thing is what makes a good russian lawyer isnt what makes a Good American lawyer it is not about how you present your legal arguments or what you find in discovery it is about who you know t is about who, you know, who you bring the brief case full of money to. Who you are connected to, who your clients are connected to and how, and thats how the judge determines how he or she will rule. Rose so what lead up to this meeting . Lets review that. She was defending a man named knit ddz scutoff, a business man from russia very well connect, his father very well connected businessman in russia. And former regional minister. He was sued by berara for allegedly laundering money that he allegedly stole from bill broader and laundered in new york real estate. Now that brought Natalia Veselnitskaya in new york over and over and over again, at times she was denied an visesa and had to be granted an exception to come in and defen her client here, she was also involved in lobbying against and actually Senate Judiciary chair chuck grassley, a republican, filed a complaint in march, this march saying that she should be investigated along with the who was at the meeting at trump tower last summer for lobbying for the russian government but not registering as foreign agents. Rose how does her description of the meeght, she is being interviewed on the today show, at least, and prapsz other places, what does that say about, and how does it differ from what donald trump junior said . Well, in some ways both of their explanations align and it seems like if you just look at their descriptions of the meeting, it looks like it was kind of a bathed and swrich, that she got in the door by saying hey, i have some damaging information about your political o upon ent, lets talk. And she gave him some information he didnt find, here im conflating their two explanations. He gives information, he doesnt find plausible or satis factory, she tries to change the subject to magknitski ak and repealing it, he is bored and doesnt want to hear about it. But then you started talking to other participates in the meeting, for example, mirchin who says she actually passed documents to dan ald trump, jr. And jared curb nsh kushner and Paul Manafort allegedly detailing illegal payments to the dnc on behalf of Hillary Clinton. She denies it says she did pass the documents so there is still a lot we dont know about this meeting. Rose and why did Jared Kushner and Paul Manafort leave early . I dont know. I think just Jared Kushner left early and according to a description Paul Manafort was just looking at his phone and was kind of bored. But who knows if that was really happened. You have so many selfinterested people trying to cover their derrieres now that this meeting that apparently none of them thought was going to be a huge deal has become a huge deal. Rose where is she now . She is still in moscow in the Moscow Region working. She is now involved in a case in trying to win back the land under the first ikea in moscow claiming that it had been frauds lently sold. So she is people are charging her with participating in yet another corporate raid. Rose as someone who knows how to see the difference between smoke and fire, i mean what do you see . Its hard to tell. I think we need to know more facts about what happened in that meeting. You know, on one hand its plausible that she went in there to talk about the and did pull a bait and switch, knowing that the trump camp wanted to talk about Hillary Clinton, wanted damaging information on her. On the other hand, there is that first original email where rod goldstone says hey, the crown pros kiter of russia, the general prosecutor of russia with whom is very close and she admitted as much, that he has damaging information that he wants to pass to you through her. So its hard to square those two things am but i think we need to know more about what happened in that meeting. Lets assume that you are in fact the prosecutor in russia. What would you most likely go to to pass that information . I dont know, i mean people who are trained in the world of spy craft and counter intelligence. Does she seem like a person to do that. So people say that shes a plausible candidate because she is what is called a cutout because she is just she doesnt know the full scope of the operation. She doesnt understand what is really going on. And she thinks she is just doing this small favor, this small thing, doesnt see how it fits into the larger picture. Maybe, maybe so. I dont know. At this point i think there is a lot of speculation. We need more facts. And for those who think that that she does have the capability of being used in that way, are there other examples of how she has been involved in this kind of activity, representing someone through one source or another that powerful . Well, she has been involved in lobbying against magknitski ak which is something that really rankled the kremlin. They and advice illknit ddz sky without i should add very patriot eck, very ardently proputin, healths russian liberals, hates american liberals, if you go to her facebook post, she is an ardent foa of president obama, a supporter of President Trump, but she was voferred in lobbying against magknitskiak which she and putin see as the tell plate for which sanctions for the invasion of ukraine where implemented which was a huge blow to the russian government and russian elite because it gets at their basically very reason for being. They steal a lot of money at home, they cant keep can it at home because someone else might steal it from them the same way they stole it the magknitski ak, the sanctions cult that channel of getting money out of the country. Rose do you believe the son would have done this without pell telling the president. Trump, jr. . Rose yes. I very much doubt it. From what we know about donald trump during the campaign, he was very involved, micromanaging, especially when it came to smeering his opponents an keeping track of which attacks were made when against whip opponents. Rose and when he might have information to deliver another attack. Yes. Rose heres what director of the intelligence and Defense Project at harvard wrote, he says this bears all the hallmarks of a professionally planned, carefully orchestrated intelligence soft pitch designed to engage receptivity while leaving room for plausible deny ability. Could it be that . Absolutely could be. I mean that also sounds like what putin does all the time. Again he was trained in the kgb. We know this is repeated all the time. But this is how he does politics at home. He puts that little trial balloons, he sees how that trial balloon goes over and then if it doesnt go over well, he denies that it had anything to do with him. If anything it would mirror his modus on randi. Rose always great to you have on this program, thank you so much, good reporting. Thanks, charmie. Rose thank you for joining us, see you next time. Rose for more about this program and earlier episodes visit us online at pbs. Org and charlie rose. Com. Captioning sponsored by Rose Communications captioned by Media Access Group at wgbh access. Wgbh. Org rose funding for charlie rose has been provided by of america, life better connected. And by bloomberg, a provider of multimedia news and Information Services worldwide. Production. Sbrocco another umami bomb obrien umami bomb