Relations after president obama canceled his visit to moscow to meet with president putin in International Affairs people say putin is antiamerican. I say no, hes nonamerican. He has a Foreign Policy from europe to the middle east thats different from america. He takes pride in that and on the basis of that hes made allies. To give snowden, a highly symbolic figure given the surveillance issue would have collided with what putins done in International Affairs. But at home he has a political elite. Forget society. The political elite didnt want him to make this concession to the United States. Rose we conclude with Julian Guthrie, a journalist who has written a book about Larry Ellison called the billionaire and the mechanic. It details the story of his quest for the americas cup. And it was expected that larry would partner with a betterknown yacht club on San Franciscos waterfront, the st. Francis yacht club. And theres a fun story in the book about what happened or what didnt happen between the st. Francis and Larry Ellison. But its a story that doesnt come along very often and i became became very enamored with the drama of the two men before i became interested in the americas cup. Rose egypt, russia and the americas cup when we continue. Captioning sponsored by Rose Communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. Rose we begin tonight with egypt. A state of emergency has been declared following a crackdown on supporters of president mohamed morsi. Scores of people were killed after Security Forces moved into two protest camps today. Two journalists, including sky news cameraman mick danee are among the dead. Video of the clashes showed scenes of violence and destruction. Todays events are deplorable and they run counter to egyptian aspirations for peace inclusion, and genuine democracy. Egyptians inside and outside of the government need to take a step back. They need calm the situation and avoid further loss of life. Rose egypts interim Vice President , Mohammed Elbaradei has resigned in the crackdown. As he road to the president beneficiaries of what happened today are those who call for violence, terrorism and the most extreme groups. The white house has strongly condemned the violence in a statement. Joining us on the phone from cairo is michael hanna, he is a senior fellow at the century foundation. From washington, steven cook, a senior fellow for middle Eastern Studies at the council on foreign relations. And here in new york, frank wisner. He is a former u. S. Ambassador to egypt and served as president obamas envoy to the country in 2011. Let me begin with michael hanna. Tell me whats going on on the ground as we speak which is late in the evening in egypt. At this point a curfew is setting in, a state of emergency has been declared and its obviously been a very chaotic and bloody day, many disturbing images emerging that all emerge from the decision to disperse the protests of the promorsi camps in two locations in cairo. That disperseal has been undertaken by force and has produced a high number of casualties. As of yet that number is not precisely fixed but its a number that i think is going to shock a lot of people whenever it is fixed. Rose can you give a sense of what shocking people means . Well, i think its going to be over a hundred easily and i think what we saw what we saw in egypt was the initial move by the Security Forces to try to clear the protests. The use of snipers. There was also a response from within the camp and this is something thats contested how violent that response was, the types of weapons that were used. Obviously military and the government are portraying a very violent reaction from the promorsi camp and its unclear really what kind of reaction it was but, again, we have a disproportionate use of force and looking at the casualties on both sides, again, we have a picture of dispreportion gnat use of force. I will add one point here. That is that the country saw a whole host of reprisals million targeting christian churches, businesses and homes throughout the country and violent spreading to other cities within egypt as well. Rose so what is the expectation for tomorrow . Well, tonight, i mean i think fighting will continue. The main protest area is not fully clear yet. Tlt protesters there are trying to hold out. So much some of the senior Muslim Brotherhood leaders appear to have been arrested but this continues and i think the brotherhood has made it a priority to hold their ground as an attempt to maintain the le reg they believe this sit in provides for them. What does that leverage give them a sense . What is their end game . I dont think anybody has end games right now. I think serve caught up in the immediate violence. Theres very little opening, i think, for deescalatory measures. I think there was a sense last week that a u. S. E. U. Led initiative might hold the possibility for deescalatory steps that might create a path for political negotiations. I think t hopes for that a long way off at this point and deescalation seems very distant at the moment. Rose you know some of the players over there as well as knowing the country very well. Where do you think we are in terms of this dramatic change that has taken place in egypt starting with the overthrow of mubarak and with the election of morsi and what many people call a coup against morsi by the army and now this. Yes. Well, egypts obviously been on a roller coaster since the events started in the spring of 2011 in Tahrir Square. Youve gone through a period of army control, you had general elections, president ial elections, ms. Lick brothers came to power. They then conduct themselves in a manner that offends a great many egyptians. The crowd surge on the streets earlier this summer and the military steps back in and you now have an interim civilian government rose and now a state of emergency. And now a state of emergency. The interim government that came in is committed to a road map to get egypt back on the road to democracy. So we are watching a very fastbreaking situation. But i would be very hesitant before i jumped to a conclusion that were looking at another syria or some massive breakdown, egypt is not of that nature but this could be days in resolving itself and it wont have a neat end. Rose im going come back to u. S. Options. Steve, whats your assessment of this so far . We talked about egypt a number of times before. Well, i think this is a dramatic turn. I certainly agree ambassador wisner that were not likely looking at a similar situation as what weve seen unfold in syria over the course of the last couple years. But i dont think that we can credibly say that the coup of july 3 or the events of today are putting egypt back on the path of democracy. I wonder whether egypt was on the path of democracy certainly the events of january and february 2011, the uprising, the promise of Tahrir Square gave many people hope for democracy. But shortly within a number of months after that we have seen egypt rocked by one political crises after another, near economic collapse. It doesnt seem that any of the players although they talk about democracy, they certainly use the language of reform and democracy arent truly interested in anything other than rigging the political system in their favor to the exclusion of others. Its certainly what morsi was trying to do and it certainly seems that whatever interim president adly mansour and egyptian spokespeople have said, they, too, have no real intention of pursuing an inclusive political process with the Muslim Brotherhood. Rose whos in control and what combination of people are making decisions . Well, its obviously a little opaque at the moment. I think the interim president is clearly not someone who is a decision maker. We saw the resignation today of the Vice President for International Affairs, Mohammed Elbaradei, the former head of the i. A. E. A. , a Famous International figure with a lot of credibility and his resignation is telling. He lost the internal deliberations, the discussions about how to deal with the protest. He was against dealing with them violently. Clearly at the moment the Security Services with the military in the lead are ascendant. And with this resignation i think veneer of civilianled transition becomes much hard to maintain and i imagine there will be further civilian leaders resigning in the coming days. So, you know, i think its clear a militaryrun moment. And they are the most powerful and coherent institution in the country and particularly at a time of turmoil. Rose frank, what are the risks here . Well, the risks are clearly if the situation cannot be brought under control and brought under control quickly that you could have a running level of violence that further disrupts egypt, imperils an already badlyweakened economy and makes it even more complex to find a political way forward, some form of consensus that takes egyptians on the road towards something we could live with and feel was a democratic outcome. I still believe that it is deeply in the militarys interest to get through this period of violence in which they felt authority of the state was challenged and their own mandate was in question and get it back to where the civilians have to take responsibility for designing the transition, getting a constitution, and holding electionings. So while the military is running the show at the moment in the face of violence, thats not where they want it to be and it clearly isnt where any of us would want them to be. Rose if it continues like this, whats the risk of people from outside would want to come in . Well, syrias an awfully high bar. We dont to have a hundred thousand dead in the streets of egypt to have a serious disaster on our hands and the hands of the international community. I think we see clear indications of the social fabric fraying. Dehumanization happening on both sides and the reprisals today in the lowlevel insurgency that is brewing in sinai we see, i think glimpses of the of a potential future where you have insurgenttype tactics, growing militancy and radical sags and further down the line one could imagine foreign fighters attracted to a place like the Sinai Peninsula where militants seem to have gathered. So i dont think we have to set the bar at syria or the algerian civil war to imagine some very serious possibilities for Egyptian Society because this is an egyptian disaster and an egyptian mess and it doesnt have to be in reference to these very high bars set by civil wars in other countries. Rose whats the sectarian element here . The sectarian element is a serious one. The rumors apparently were on the street that the christians favored the crackdown and therefore there have been attacks on churches throughout egypt over the last 24 hours, burning churches and assaulting individuals. There is no doubt, however, the Christian Community feels that its position is egypt is much safer in the hands of a more secular dispen sags with the military and the civilian leaders who are in power today. And that range it is them very quickly against a number of nose the Muslim Brotherhood camp. They face a very challenging period. Rose what are the u. S. Options . The United States has very tough options. This is not an easy decision. We have vital interests in egypt. Its role in the region. Peace with israel. The weight of the largest country in the arab world on events that take place throughout the region. We have huge responsibilities needing to get through the suez canal, positioning ourselves in the region in cooperation with egypt. Egypt has political weight. On the one hand. On the other American Opinion finds it very, very difficult to see a government in place that has to take the lives of its citizens. Even when the lives are taken to restore order after prolonged period of negotiations. Remember six weeks of negotiations have occurred to a point that you can reasonably say to yourself was there a negotiated conclusion or was there going to be a continued standoff that disrupted the life of the capital city . Rose what do you think about american options and what they might do, steve . Well, i think our options are actually rather limited. Egyptians are engaged in a struggle over the future of their country and as a result the stakes are quite high. They are as michael pointed out potentially confronting a lowlevel insurgency. Its how long will it take before members of the Muslim Brotherhood decide that they can only process their grievances through the force of arms . So i think there will be a lot of discussion here in washington about American Military aid, the sale of f16s to egypt, the upcoming bright star military exercise which is the biggest joint military exercise in the world and whether those things should go forward. And whether they do or they dont i dont think it will materially affect the interests and calculations of general alsisi, the leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood, the civilians of the interim government because the stakes are so high and they perceive themselves to be in a the fight for the heart and soul of egypt. Rose do you know general al sis any. No, i dont. Rose what do you know about people who know him . Which you clearly to . Well, general alsisi is a very interesting figure and he rose very quickly to the top of the Egyptian Military. Hes enormously powerful in the country now. His stated views as much as we know them are a mix of egypt is a Muslim Country and its religious orientation needs to be respected. At the same time egypt is a Diverse Society with christians as well as mum licks living inside its borders with a place in the region and in the world that requires balance. Where he broke with the muslim brothers, as best i can tell, was over their headlong rush to islam sooiz in a political sense the system in i jipt. And the fact that they were not prepared to open the doors to a consensus arrangement with so many tens of thousands of other egyptians, eventually millions,d alsisi found himself the inhertor as egyptian officers will of the responsibility for the maintenance of the Egyptian State and the egyptian order and pressed to that outcome he took the action that he took on july 3. Rose do you think the United States has influence with him because of the longstanding military contact between the Egyptian Military and the American Military . I believe we have great influence not only with him but with the Current Group of leaders and many other egyptians even though the United States is sharply criticized these days in egypt. Our approval, our involvement, our concern is deeply sought after its not so much the aid as it is our position and pour potential to be a friend of egypt when it comes time to gathering up the very badly broken egyptian economy. So egypt needs the United States. But at the same time, we need egypt. Rose michael, at this busy day, whats the big question for you as someone whos in the street . Well, i mean, now what . Is there an end game in mind . Because for me as opposed to limiting the chaos or limiting the possibility of violence this seems a recipe for metastasizing the violence, seeing it spread. And possibly hardening the gap in trust between all parties and so i think a Security Solution is not the proper tool for what is a political crisis at root and its very difficult to see how this ameliorate it is Current Situation or leads to a plausible nearterm outcome of stability. And so i wonder what is in the minds of egypts leaders in terms of regaining normalcy. Because i think the current path is not one that can do that. Rose and which question do you have at this time, steven . Well, the question in my mind is whether the military is calculating that they can live with a lowlevel insurgency along the same lines that they had in the 1990s, because that seems to be the case. That seems to be the place where egypt is going. We already have a situation in the sinai that is out of control and repression often leads to radicalization and the use of violence. So have they calculated, have they been able to think about what they did today three steps ahead . It certainly seems to me, however, that regardless of what may what they believe about it, egypt is going to be unstable and uncertain and significantly more violent than its been since that lowlevel surgery came to an end in the late 1990s. Just one more thing on the u. S. I think its clear by the actions taken today that the egyptian leadership is not all that interested in what the u. S. View is on these issues. So i think were entering into a period where we dont have much influence and too many levers at our disposal to nudge the egyptians away from violence and to a better, more just, open, democratic society. Rose understanding how important, frank, egypt is to the middle east, you say you cant end war without syria, you cant go to war without egypt. What steve saidd is a troubling thing in a sense that we have less influence with one of the essential countries in the future of the middle east. Well, i think its absolutely right, we have less influence and stevens absolutely right. At the same time were not going to pick the government in egypt. We have to face that reality. But we can influence there is no one who has the same audience we ha