to be surprised by, iowa or at least what we were surprised in the past? >> we finally took a look back at this one in history of republican caucuses in iowa, which had come up with the three biggest caucus night surprises, and you can judge these and compare them to what might constitute a surprise on monday, and see whether any or 11th. here is what we came up with. the first, you go back to 1980, here's senator bob dole at the time, he was the winner of the 1980 caucus in iowa, is a famous message to iowans and fellow midwest, i'm one of you. in fact, the margin dole won in 1988 is the largest in modern caucus history. so why was this a surprise, it is because the second place candidate and i was supposed to be the sitting vice president of the united states, george bush senior. instead, the votes came in, it was somebody else. it was -- the drama is the fading as they go to click it. i can't believe it.