Twothirds of the voters of virginia which is voting next week say they hold a stark, negative view of the Republican Party nationally. Worse yet, the same twothirds say they are voting for the democratic candidate for governor next week because they cant stand for the brand of the guy running against him. His name is republican. All have such a dread of the grand old party today that now think of it to be feared. Eugene robinson and joan walsh. Both are msnbc political analysts. Well a political storm is brewing in virginia. That could tell us which way the country is headed now. For nearly 40 years covering the last nine elections, the party occupying the white house has lost the following race. This shows that streak may be about to end. Terry mcauliffe leads Ken Cuccinelli by 12 points. His largest margin in the poll yet. And when mcauliffe supporters asked what motivates their vote, as i said, nearly twothirds, 64 , say its the chance to vote against the republican cuccinelli. By just not being the extreme right winger, the democrat gets the bulk of the votes. This matches, by the way, almost the 65 of virginia voters who have now said they have an unfavorable opinion of the Republican Party nationally suggesting the force driving this election of virginia next tuesday is the negative voter feeling about the Republican Party nationally. Gene, this is stark stuff. I know we live in washington. I know virginias to our south across the potomac. But this is the canary in the mine that just died for the Republican Party. Well, i think it did. If you look at virginia, its a purple state. It was red, its become more blue. Its gone for obama a couple of times. But its very close. Its a changing state. Growing hispanic population. Its like the country in some sense. The numbers are almost exactly the same as the numbers nationally. Exactly. And you can see cuccinelli is getting killed in the polls. In large part its because hes very far to the right. Hes also tied to governor Bob Macdonald who has had had ethics problems. And the Government Shutdown. The republican identification with the Government Shutdown, i think, was a huge factor in this race. And will be a huge factor on election day. I always see interesting coincidents. Coincidental facts. A third that say they dont like the Republican Party nationally say theyre voting against cuccinelli in the other race. Twothirds saying i dont like republicans, im not voting for a republican. Thats pretty stark evidence of whats to come. This may be the first primary for 2014 if you look at it that way. I think it really is. Theres another since you guys love numbers, theres another number that jumped out at me though. Three times as many people in virginia strong opponents of the tea party as are strong supporters of the tea party. And both groups are equally likely to vote. That never happens. We think of the Tea Party People as being the people who are motivated. Theyre the one who is always turn out. And cuccinelli has banked had his campaign on saying this is a weird offyear election. If i can get my base out, im going to be fine. But it turns out this same process of turning against republicans is turning people against the tea parties. Youre so smart. This is the old karl rove theory that no matter how much the middle worried about you, you can get the nasties out. Right on that point, virginia matters because its Election Results are as youve been saying is nearly identical matchup to the National Numbers as we were just mentioning. Catch this number. I dont care if you like numbers or not. Youll like this one. In the 2012 president ial election obama got 51. 1 of the vote. Mitt romney got 47. 2 . In virginia the president got 51. 2 and romney got 47. 3 . Reached a new high in todays Washington Post poll with 53 of virginians openly opposing the tea party. Well a year ago 41 supported the tea party. And only two years ago more virginians supported the tea party. 4543. While the republican brand has taken a beating nationally, the tea leaves of virginia i know that was funny. It was mine. The sub brand, the tea party is taking a beating as well. Gene, it seems to me that you cant generalize too much. Obviously there are a lot of federal employees. Exactly. But those of us who think of virginia as the old virginia. The old state of you know, its the bird family and all that stuff and the massive resistance. Its not that state anymore. That doesnt sum up the state anymore, no. Theres still some very, very conservative people in virginia, but theres lots of newcomers and lots of immigrants. Like the next governor. Huge like the next governor. Exactly. Like the next governor. Immigrant carpet bagger, whatever you want to call him. George allen wasnt from virginia. Look. Allen wasnt from virginia. Robb wasnt from virginia. One factor in this race, though, and certainly in the tea Party Numbers was the shutdown because of the heavy federal government presence here in northern virginia. The tea partys hostility toward Government Employees and Government Spending in general. Including defense spending which partly explains i think why with cuccinelli is getting beat down in newport news. These numbers are stirring. Look at this. Among the voters down there, republicans have once again fielded a candidate who women generally flee from in droves. If women flee in droves. Even in the case of rape and incest which for some people is an exception is losing to Terry Mcauliffe among women. This is like the new york mayors race. 24point difference. Among basically even among men tied. So the issues that grab our attention and women in the media and outside the media didnt seem to move the men. Maybe theyre gun oriented or something. Theyre still with cuccinelli. But a 24point spread for women. What do you make of that . I would give Terry Mcauliffe some credit there. He has not been afraid to run on the social issues in virginia. No, he isnt. He and his people saw that there was this gender gap and it could be widened. Cuccinelli also supports a personhood bill which makes contraception illegal. He has gone to go against the antisodomy wall. So hes run a campaign that is innovative for virginia seeing that these social issues were going to move the needle. Theyve moved the needle quite a lot. Are you sure about that, joan . Talking about the iud. What method of Birth Control would be effected by this . It could be the iud. Its anything that stops implantation. It depends on the wording of the law. So some supporters of it wiggle out by saying we never got far enough, necessarily to get the law passed. We might have negotiated that out. They even put at risk some oral forms of contraception. Wall street has reached its highest level today. The dow jones gained 111 points and closed at a new high in history. In history, the s p closed at a record high as well. He kills our enemies and he makes us rich. So why are you bitching . What is the problem with the right . Why dont they ever even in their own selfnegative money interests, cant they at least say ill say this about this customer, at least he makes us rich. And he kills our enemies. If w did that, theyd make him the next saint. Thats been the pattern with democratic president s. Theyre hated. Last question to you, joan. Cant he make them happy even by making them rich and killing our enemies . What does he have to do, this guy . Apparently not. Apparently not. They are so bought into thinking that he is, you know, a demon and thinking that their voters want to hear that. Some of them do. Some of them dont. Many voters, most voters recognize that this man has done what he can do for the economy and that hes been dealt a tough hand. Let me try it another way. He left us with the clown car. Left us with the worst financial disaster since the great depression. He left us sitting on his lap when they left. Theyve failed on both counts and then this guy comes in and succeeds glowingly on both counts taking down al qaeda from the top on television, okay . And he takes he doubles the dow back from the doldrums it was in under w. And not a wimper of well, ill give him that. I dont like him, but ill give him that. Just a little grumble of, yeah, i like that. Nothing. No. No. A lot of them hate him and they see political gain in trashing him. And they cant give him any credit whatsoever. And, yes, some of it does have to do with his race, sorry to say. Some basic human reaction. Im accused of saying i want to say when im exactly sure. But sometimes you got to wonder what dont they really, really like about him. Thank you for the chuckle and the thoughts of course. And for the point of view and thoughts. Very connected, actually. By the way, election day is this coming tuesday. Polls in virginia are going to close at 7 00 eastern. And hardball, luckily we get to do it. Well be first with the results. The exit polling. Well tell you how the canary did before he died in terms of the right wing. Thats next tuesday at 7 00 eastern. By the way, coming up, its one thing for the right wing to take shots. Now the National Review is. I dont think they meant it as a compliment. Also republicans crying crocodile tears over the problems with the rollout of president obamaS Health Care plan. Theyre pretending all they want to do is fix it. Can you believe that . They just want to fix it. Weve gone through 44 votes, 48 votes now, of you trying to dismantling the legislation. You call that cooperation . I dont. I like that guy out of his chair. Plus its been a year since Hurricane Sandy hit the northeast and aid still isnt getting to many of those who desperately need it. And let me finish tonight with the voters want for politicians to work together. This is hardball, the place for politics. Well, if republicans dont win control of this senate next year, they may be left out of power for awhile. In 2014 senators up for reelection include democrats who came to power when barack obama was elected president back in 2008. Democrats are defending 21 seats versus 14 seats for republicans. But in 2016, its republican senators who will be playing defense. Theyll be defending the seat gain they won in 2010. Seven from states obama won. Look at all the red on that map. Tackling the fact its a president ial Election Year turnout will be higher than it normally is. Well be right back. Welcome back to hardball. The Republicans Party internal war continues to rage. The newest editors at the conservative National Review called out bomb throwers on the right like ted cruz. They called them apocalyptic conservatives. That their strategy of shutting down the government had more poisonous divisions in the party. Quote, conservative groups that have internalized the apocalyptic view of politics believe the most effective model for gaining ground is simply pressuring republicans to be more confrontational. The first step of the defunding strategy was not to persuade most republicans it was a good idea. It was to force them to go along with it whether or not they agreed. It turned out the power to move the House Republican caucus is not the power to move the world. And passing legislation the normal way. In other words, the exact opposite of what ted cruz is pitching. What do all the washington strategists say in 2014 . Lets go back to the model of 06, 08, and 12. You guys pushing for a standard on obama care, thats risky. No, no, no, no. Just keep your head down and well win races. Thats not how you win races. Thats based on the oh, so clever idea that if your opponent is here on the spectrum, that you have to be infinitesimally to their right so that you can capture every marginal voter right up to where they are. The problem is if you do that you destroy every single reason anyone has to show up and vote. So which visual will win out in the Republican Party . Ed rendell and michael steele. Governor rendell, sometimes when i watch that guy, they turn off the sound if thats possible. I see a evangelicalist with the hands and the religious intonation and gesture. Is he apocalyptic . Is this something years from now we can decide or something right now something really apocalyptic. We either go the right way which is godly or were going the wrong way which is ungodly. I mean, is this about budget deficits . Is this about something you put your fingers on like mathematics . Or Something Else hes talking about here . I think hes talking apocalyptics. I see it. Your thoughts. I do too. And, you know, its working for him. People say, well, this strategy was a failure. Sure, it was a failure. It was a failure for republicans nationally. It was a failure for republicans in the congress. But was it a failure for ted cruz . Hes got bigger fund raising lists as a result of what he did. Hes got converts that will go to the wall for him in iowa and states like that. Was it a failure from his perspective . Maybe not. So its all about governor, is it all about getting the right wing rail, get that rail position hardest right you can get and make sure rand paul or nobody else gets there. As long as you hold to that position, hardest right candidate, youre going to get a huge chunk of votes. Is that the thinking . Absolutely. I think ted cruz is motivated totally selfishly in this. Hes not think of the country. Hes not thinking of his party. Hes thinking of himself. But it may be a strategy that works with republican primary voters. Remember, primary voters are a small slice of the overall republican electorate. It may not work with the electorate at large, but it could work with the primary voters. I want you to respond to that. There was a guy called george mcgovern. He made sure nobody got to his left. Nobody get to my left or right, i win. I win. And thats cruzs stance here. No one getting to his right as he sets up the republican primary march which hes spent four times in iowa. And the right wing guy wins. Right. By the way, hes going to south carolina. Exactly. Well, there you are. And i think its important to know that he mentioned going back to the you know, 2006, 2008, and 2012. He skipped 2010 and 2009. And its something about what we did when i was at the rnc in that period when you won. When we won. I didnt have to go hard extreme. I had to be common sense. I had to bring people to the party because, remember, we were a party out of power in disfavor with the american people. We had to rebuild that i get it you would be today a guy who didnt shut down the government who didnt threaten default but waited to see how this obama rollout occurred and then run against that. Yeah. You would have done that. But they dont do that now. They dont do that now. I like to advance you. I appreciate it. Let me go to Senate Majority leader mcconnell is being challenged next year. In a new web video he goes the other way. He pitched a leader in washington who can negotiate and get things done. Hes going for the other position. Not exactly a message that will endear him to tea party types. He is accepting the roll of leadership playing his strengths. Not this rabblerouser out there. Lets watch. Minority leader Mitch Mcconnell helped pave the way for this. Mcconnell is a terrific leader. Theres nobody whos been better than mcconnell. Hes good, hes tough, hes smart. He knows what hes doing. Mitch mcconnell who in the end is the person who more than anyone else got this deal to the finish line. Mitch mcconnell. Senator mcconnell was the adult here. What would have happened here if he hadnt been there . Its amazing, governor, how the Republican Partys swing to the right is so stark that lou dobbs is now on the more liberal side of this swing. This lou dobbs who you cite now as your establishment support beam. Your thoughts. I thought it was a good ad because it played to his strengths. Your thoughts. Absolutely. Its a good ad because he cant run away from the fact hes been in washington for years. Dont compromise that. Go with it and go with your strength. Youre a strong leader and you deliver for kentucky. You remember in 94 which was a republican wave year, ted kennedy survived. In the end, he said, look, i bring things to massachusetts that nobody else can do. And people said, you know, hes right. Why would we want to lose him . And in kentucky, the message is going to be twofold. One, Mitch Mcconnell is a Good National leader. But two, he delivers for kentucky. Lets look at an example, heres Ohio Governor john kasich. Had strong words on the subject of a Strong Social safety yet. Can you believe it . He told the New York Times im concerned about the fact that there seems to be a war on the poor. That if youre poor, somehow youre shiftless and lazy. The times pointed out that kasich has expanded medicaid in his state, given resources to the mentally ill, and backed the mayor who raised taxes to improve schools. Michael . I think the governor is dead on. And im very happy and rather proud to hear him put that out on the table. I think the party should talk more about the poor in the context of our policies and the things that we believe will help lift the poor. You know, i ask the questions when i give speeches, how many got up today and said all i want to be is poor. And no one raises their hands. The poor doesnt get up thinking that. I think our party is uniquely poised to do that. And i think the leadership of guys like kasich and others will help frame that argument into the future. If given the opportunity. And they have that Sister Soldier moment when they say to the rank and file, this is the way forward. Not over there in the woods and in the trees, but this way talking about poor and opportunity and all that. Looks to me like the crazy right is now fighting the reasonable right. As well as the left. Yeah. Anyway