Low, 22 . Their negative rating is tied for the highest ever. As for the larger American Public, this halloweens trick or treat hall has more apples and boxes on razors than the fullsize candy bars everyone loves. 70 say the nation is on the wrong track. Half are convinced theres going to be another shutdown on january 15th. We start with the man whos not scared of the ghosts and goblins. Nbc news senior Political Editor mark murray. Mark, really fascinating poll. Nearly half of the country does not identify with either party. They dont feel like theyre being heard. 30 say they would prefer an independent or a thirdparty candidate for congress. Thats more than wanted to vote for a republican. Its obviously early. And its important to factor in the fact that we all have short attention spans. But how do you see this pretty significant desire for a third party impacting the Political Landscape leading up to the midterms . If im an incumbent, im pretty worried. Of course, theres a lot of time. We have a year away until the 2014 midterms. With this antiwashington sentiment thats out there, if youre an incumbent, whether from the senate or house of representatives and youre running for reelection, you have to be very prepared youre going to have an opponent whos going to say, this persons part of washington, elect me because washingtons broken and we need some fresh air. Of course, thats been an argument weve seen time and time before. Washington is broken, lets throw all the bums out. But abby, this time might be a little bit different. One of the poll numbers that really struck me, 63 want to replace their current member of congress with someone else. Thats the highest percentage on that question dating back to 1992. Theres a lot of dissatisfaction out there. The question is whether that still remains the case a year from now. Right. Mark, dig into who these people are were talking about, the 30 who want an independent, the folks who wont selfidentify as democrats or republicans. Do they selfidentify with more liberal, more conservative . Do they identify with the tea party, or is it really sort of a mixed bag . Krystal, thats a great question. I ended up digging into the cross tabs this morning to find an answer. The overwhelming number of folks who say they want a third party, and it shouldnt be surprising, are independent voters. These are the people who are usually in the middle. They arent either usually democrats or republicans. But this was another this was the most interesting finding. A good portion of republicans who arent allied with the tea party say theyd actually be willing to support a third party. So it really isnt the Tea Party Republicans who say they want a third party. Its the republicans who arent associated with the tea party, which just shows you the struggles that the Republican Partys having right now, the ideological fight within that party. That is a story that i dont think were going to have a resolution to over the next several months. Mark, i want to push back slightly against the idea that incumbents or the status quo has much to worry about. I think when i look at these numbers and everybodys numbers are going down, i think what might happen is were going to see increasingly depressed turnouts, that nobody wants to get involved with the process. People are disillusioned. Typically as we see, 2012, 58 turnout, which is incredibly low given the rest of the world. Midterms, 41 . That even seems high to me. So were going to see folks in the middle, disillusioned, not come out. The fringes will have more power and thus youll have more polarization and more incumbents who are able to keep the status quo going. Well, to your point, so far in all the elections weve seen in 2013, the year after last years president ial contest, turnouts really plummeted. Its not been up. Well see in next weeks elections in new jersey and virginia if that continues to hold true. You are right. Sometimes the middle doesnt show up in a midterm election. I think the biggest factor that well end up seeing is just the playing field. The big senate races are going to be in states like arkansas, alaska, louisiana. Its not your president ial battlegrounds we saw last year in ohio and in virginia. Of course, you end up having the battlegrounds in house congressional districts. As you guys and others have pointed out, due to gerrymandering and selfsorting, these also arent your probably most even playing fields at all. So geography is going to play out just as much as turnout. And you know, mark, its halloween. I cant help but notice you wore your costume today as a handsome and measured journalist. Well, thank you, ari. Youre welcome. Aris dressed up as that too. I try. Its hard every day. What i want to ask you, though, is about some of the numbers in this poll that suggest perhaps we have an American Public thats far more patient than sort of the Political Class and some of the media class that has been very a. D. D. Republicans were on the march over, you know, the shutdown. Obama was in trouble. Then obama was victorious. Then hes back in trouble. When you look specifically at the website aca question there, what you see is youve got a rough third of the country that says, hey, these problems are fixable. More than another third says its too early to tell. I think thats the right answer impeerically. It is too early to tell a verdict here on the rollout of the aca. What do you think that tells us about sort of a contrast between a patient public and an a. D. D. Political class . You know, i think thats a great point that you end up making. You know, when you looked at our poll, president obama took some hits, it seems, on the aca rollout, but the law really didnt. As you mentioned, there does seem to be a lot of patience from americans, more so than folks from the media. Id also mention folks on capitol hill, including democrats, who are very nervous. They were just meeting with the Obama White House today going over what they are very worried about regarding this website. But they do have some time. They dont have a whole lot of time, but they do have some time. The white house has circled that november 30th date on its calendar. I think the entire political world, journalists, politicians, everyone else is going to be able to see if they make that time, if they make it by november 30th, theres not going to be a big problem. If all of the sudden there are problems that come along after november 30th, then i do think that we end up getting to a situation where this becomes a much bigger political problem. One of the biggest, most interesting numbers out of the poll for me was that 50 think that we are likely to have another shutdown. I think that number needs a lot of unpacking. Who are these folks . Are they folks from the far right who want another shutdown, folks from the left who are afraid of another shutdown . Are they folks saying theyre angry that washington is moving this direction . Are they folks who are saying they are numb to the prospect of another shutdown because they feel like we went through one without that much direct pain for a lot of americans . They dont understand what the shutdown did to america. So who is in that 50 . I think its more the latter. I think these are people who are numb and so dissatisfied with washington they accept this is just the status quo. Then you look at todays activity in the United States senate where mel watt, the congressman from North Carolina was blocked to head up the federal Housing Administration and housing agency, one of president obamas picks to head up the d. C. Circuit court of appeals was blocked by filibuster. People just say washington is broken. This is just standard operating procedure. If youre looking if the past hikt ri is predictive, some people might not be all that far off if theres not some time of Government Shutdown in the future, i think were going to get pretty close to it. Right. A lot of frightening numbers in this poll and a real indication the American People simply lack confidence with their political leaders. As the man that understands these polls better than any of us, what was most shocking to you . I think it was the 63 of the folks want to elect a new member of congress. We do know and i was just saying at the beginning, this is why i think that incumbents should be worried because nothing is easier than being an incumbent and winning reelection. Of course, we see incumbents go down from time to time. But usually the winning percentage is Something Like 90 or so. But with 63 saying, look, i want my member of congress, the person who i know, i want a new person in that office. Thats a big warning sign and thats something that really surprised me and of course, as i mentioned, thats the highest percentage weve had in that question dating back to 1992. Quite a poll. Thanks for breaking this down, mark murray. We always appreciate it. Thank you. Up next, the great and powerful putin. A freaky role reversal between the russian leader and president obama. The cycle rolls on. [ fishing rod casting line, marching band playing ] [ male announcer ] the rhythm of life. [ whistle blowing ] where do you hear that beat . 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And were sharing what weve learned, so we can all produce energy more safely. Our commitment has never been stronger. Now we have some nonbreaking news. According to forbes, president obama is no longer the most powerful person in the world given the recent fallout over the nsa leaks, the debt battle, and what forbes predicts is an early onset lame duck presidency. The magazine dropped the president from number one to a different slot and handed it to vladimir putin. They argue the autocratic leader of a former super power is now stronger than the, quote, handcuffed commander in chief. Spoiler, no word yet from the white house. Im sure the president is just devastated. Anybody buying this . You know, i mean, i dont want to go too crazy with this. I dont know that forbes gave putin the top billing for all the right reasons, but i think there is definitely something to be said for the fact that this president , through no fault of his own, because a certain grouping of the Republican Party have decided they would basically do whatever it takes to keep anything that he wants to have accomplished from being accomplished, i think he does lack a certain power at this point. Now, that could be rectified with a strong 2014, which republicans are doing everything in their power to hand him, but we just heard reporting from mark murray. He cant even get his nominations confirming for basic offices. I dont know im going to go off krystals comment. I think this list should be a wakeup call. I think this recent poll that came out should be a wakeup call because the president you look over the past few months, you can laugh at me all you want, but the numbers speak for themselves. The president has not acted as if hes in control. This strategy of i dont know or i didnt know as it relates to the nsa leaks or obama care thats not my point. No, the forbes ranking should not and will not be a wakeup call to the president. Maybe he cares about these poll numbers, but hes not running anymore. He should not be running the presidency and the nation as if following these sort of poll numbers and this sort of ranking that pooutin is more powerful tn the president is completely absurd. This whole game is completely absurd. It partly deals with the idea of syria and this fallacy that not using force is less powerful than using force, so the president decides not to go into syria. So putin is more powerful. No, but i do think that the president should focus on the poll numbers. This is the American People speaking. What theyre saying is, you know, you have not provided us with a whole lot of reassurance, a whole lot of confidence as president in moments of crisis where we need our commander in chief to make us feel like everything is going to be okay. I think theyve taken a step back and said along with that, congress is clearly not getting anything done. We actually want compromise. We want our leaders to get things done. I think obama should take this very seriously. The right is surely not talking about compromise. What do you think, ar snirks. Hey, you guys. Hey, there. Youre hitting on something that republicans clearly want to seize on, abby, which is this idea that whenever Something Big and bad happens, he doesnt know about it, right. Now, politically so he says. Right. So politically, that may be a problem. In fact, your aument that basically from the website to nsa, hes like, i dont know whats going on. That doesnt wear on the American People longer term. Doesnt provide a lot of confidence. Were still stuck on this idea he didnt know what the nsa was doing. But we know better. We have intelligence officials who are saying not only did he know, but he approved this sort of stuff. I just want to clarify that my point is a different one. We have ratings agencies also saying that the American Economy is undermined by the dysfunction in washington. Im not calling on the president to be a better leader. I think that is a silly and simplistic notion. I am pointing out the fact that you have a group in congress that have decided they dont care if they hold the country hostage, they dont care if they hold the economy hostage, they dont care if they blow up their own party, they will do whatever they can to undermine the president. You also have guys, you also have youre absolutely right that the right has decided whoever is president , whoever is democratic president , that they will obstruct anything they want to do. This is not that obama could play this differently. We have a right that has decided to stop whatever motion that he wants. Well, its clear that the right has their own ideological struggles. Theyre down at a 22 approval rating, the lowest ever in history. But i go back to the fact that the American People are clearly wanting compromise. When the president comes out there and says, im not willing to compromise on anything with republicans, im just saying the numbers speak for themself. You can laugh at me and say this is not the case. This is what the American People are saying. Who is he going to compromise with . John boehner . John boehner and harry reid had a deal ironed out before the shutdown to pass a continuing resolution and avoid a shutdown. They had that deal. Boehner couldnt deliver because i had caucus wanted to hold the country hostage. Who is it the president is supposed to be compromising with . Im just saying the American People look to the commander in chief to take charge. Thats his role. Guys, you know im not disagreeing on the fact the republicans, many of them, have made it virtually impossible to compromise. You know im not disagreeing on that. My point here is that the American People are saying we need to so we cant come here and say, the president should lead, when the right is saying, we wont go anywhere with him. Whatever you want, even if you adopt a policy that came from the heritage foundation, we will oppose that tooth and nail with everything we can, with every possible idea we can. So wheres the idea that he should lead more . Hes not a king. He cant do everything. I think there have been a few moments over the past few months where hes had to walk back what hes said, whether its on health care, whether its on calling for the red line. I think hes had to walk them back. I think hes had to change his tune. Those are the moments where the American People are saying, wheres the president that told me one thing a few months ago and its suddenly very different and i have to change my insurance plan, whether or not its better for them. Why not tell me that years ago . For one thing, in 2010 they were very clear. New york times, others reported that we knew certain members, and millions of folks within the individual marketplace would have to change their plans. We knew that. In terms of syria, you talk about red line, obviously when the information changes, you should change. Having this sort of idea that i just do whatever i want to do, this george bush idea of im going to do whatever no matter the information, doesnt make any sense. The fact the president was able to walk that very thin line and not end up killing thousands of people in syria is actually to his credit when others would have thrown the bomb. We always say opinions are opinions, but facts speak for themselves. Im strictly relying on the results of this poll and what clearly the American People are saying. Ari, i think if the president would just have lunch with john boehner more often and invite putin, thats a great idea. I think lunch with the rightwing republicans and putin with a little golf, hit the links afterward you know im a big fan of twister. You got a get a game of twister in there. No, i think this has been a really interesting back and forth in the sense that i come down obviously closer to toures conclusion. No, you dont. What about you, krystal . I think what youre arctic laarctic articulating is that the American People, for some reasons fair and unfair, like issues on syria and the nsa, there hasnt been i wouldnt call it a vasculcuum of leaders. I wouldnt go as far as you put it. But i would say a mixed message for the public to end where we end up. Someone whos critical of the process in syria and very comfortable and encou