Trump is already scrambling the map this year. In utah where the Mormon Electorate is especially unfavorable to trump his lead is down to 5. 5. Prompting the campaign to dispatch mike pence to Salt Lake City less than two weeks before the election to do damage control. Hes there tomorrow. Mitt romney himself a mormon won utah by 48 in 2012. Given trumps Polling Deficit his lack of ads it came as a surprise that according to the Washington Post trump has stopped holding highdollar fundraisers and relying on online donations which tend to be much smaller. Thats after Campaign Financial reports show more money spent than raised in the month of september. Reports add to growing speculation that donald trump is not in very deep psychological Sense Running to be president of the United States so much as hes running to build up a fan base for donald trump. With the advent of trump tower
and then i could advertise a project that im doing. Like doral or something. And spend half a Million Dollars on it or a Million Dollars. Or i can do the show and spend nothing and be on for a lot longer. On the very day those tapes went public, thats exactly where trump was, doral. His resort and golf club outside miami. The event was ostensibly a Campaign Photo op with a group of employees, many who are hispanic and support the republican nominee. It sounded like this. 800 acres in the middle of miami. If you look at the ballroom, that was brandnew that didnt exist. Its one of the great places on earth. We had a Construction Crew here of 1600 people. We rebuilt the whole place in 14 months. We did it under budget although i did increase the scope of the work because we decided to use the finest marbles. While trump was hanging out at his golf course with the finest marbles, Hillary Clinton was holding an event at broward
alternative, which it is a Business Proposition, a poor Business Proposition and hes handling it terribly because hes incompetent at doing the one thing he says hes good at. Thats a possibility. I think hes far too smart for that and at 70 years old as a billionaire mogul. Well have to see the tax returns. Thats not on his agenda right now. I dont think anyone can doubt this. Even if you have the most malicious and nefarious view of donald trump you cant doubt that hes poured his Body And Soul into this campaign. Everyone who runs for president does that. No, no. Its incredibly special. If you were to compare his schedule to Hillary Clintons you would see a frenetic campaigner on one side, a man who could be my father all the time, yeah. I could never keep up his schedule versus Hillary Clinton who campaigns every few days. But you realize this is like one of trumps sons said this is
a huge step down for him to run for president. Hes not doing it donald trump isnt doing anyone any favors for running to be the most powerful person on the planet, right . I disagree by saying a step down the presidency is never a step down. Good, im glad we agree on that. I think he misspoke there, chris. Having said that, i truly believe this, i did, and i came to the trump train late. Im a convert to the trump train. I havent been drinking trump koolaid since the very beginning but ive become a true believer. I really believe this. This man, do you think that at this stage of his life, of his fortune, his career, he needs any of this . No, he doesnt. He is doing this because he sees that our country is gravely ill. We are economically and nationally sick i understand that thats the theory of the case for Trump Supporters and its what donald trump says and its possible that that is actually the case. The other theory of the case and its not just one that
people opposed to him politically believe, but people that share the Republican Partys beliefs but dont like donald trump is hes fundamentally a narcissist who has become addicted to the attention, is sort of compulsively driven by attention and this has given him an outlet for that attention and crucially doesnt actually care about the party that he is nominally representing in two weeks. Thats an important point. Chris, to your point, and i will concede this to you, there are some people whom i respect who hold those views. I would counter that by saying that generally they are part of a washington establishment that exists for its own selfaggrandizement yes, i get that. We are the outsiders and the establishment cant stand what we represent. And by the way, im glad they cant because were not coming there around the edges. I can say i get that argument. Theres some truth to that. Youre talking about this wired part of the establishment. But the random mormon voters that wanted nothing to do with the guy are now part of the establishment have come to the same conclusion. Thank you. Congratulations the Campaign Just bought a bunch of copies of that book. Thats money in your pocket. Well, no, it isnt. Ive given away so far 85,000. Is that true . 85,000 in royalties so far this year and ill continue to give it away to anti proimmigration causes. Trying to make sense of hes going to this hotel. Hes at doral today. Weve got the tape saying hes going to his hotel tomorrow. Theres a sense in which it could be the case that the incentives of running for president and getting maximum attention for yourself sometimes align and at some point they stop aligning and you just keep going with the incentives for maximum attention for yourself. Thats the only incentive he has. So what you said poor steve cortez, what a horrible,
horrible job to have to defend this man. And you can see how impossible it is at this point. Let me just note on steves behalf and steve believes in what hes saying and i dont doubt for a moment all the people you see on donald trump have not been drafted into it. Everyone has entered into it of their own i dont mean hes doing it against his will. Its a crappy job. No, so i think the point you were making about his need for attention, listen, he has kept upping the ante in terms of getting attention. The New York Times peace about michael dantonios interviews really brought that up again, this desperate feeling that if im not getting attention, that i barely exist. Hes like hes rowing the boat across a river and the Promised Land is on the other side but theres a hole in the boat and hes bailing, bailing, bailing, and hes bailing so much that he cant actually row the boat. So the Promised Land is never
going to be reached. Its funny you said that because the way this gets understood in the Campaign Context oh, theyre not doing the blocking and tackling, the organizational operational things they need to do in this election, why is he going to his hotel. Thats called lack of discipline. If you were just lazy, you would offload that to someone else and let them do the work for you. His incentives are not aligned with the Republican Party. They are part of the time but not all the time. I also wonder if at this point, given his noted inability to deal with shame, humiliation and loss and what seem like epically deep psychic wounds that he carries around, he just wants to go and be in a place that he feels like he created and right. Go back to home. Go back to somewhere, something that he maybe can feel good about. Yeah, he did End Todays Doral Event by just Muttering Rosebud Over and over again. No, i think the fascinating several different pieces of the trump psyche revealed by what happened today and one of them is this decision not to hold more fundraisers. Whats that about . Thats very simple. Hes already in revenge mode. Desperate. He wants to get the Republican Party. And if it means blowing up the Republican Party, the democracy, whatever it takes, donald trump is going to try to get back some semblance of selfworth. And to me, the biggest lesson ive learned up till now with two weeks to go before the election and the thing i have to take myself back to kind of parse is just how powerful a personality can be when it is as not worried about norms or shame as a normal person. Like thats been the big lesson. Like, wow, you can really go pretty far and you can get away with a lot. At the risk of violating goodwins law, this is the big lie, thats why its so powerful. That most people will not accept the fact that you are who was it that said that eventually donald trump will go on television and insist he never ran for president . His ability to be so shameless, i think that its impossible for most people to parse. They assume that there must be something to his grandiose selfpresentation because who could be a con man on that big of a scale . Well yeah, go ahead. My question to you is the other thing you have to remember about this guy is hes not been a politician. Running for Electoral Office is deeply humbling, not in the way like im deeply humbled. You go and shake hands and beg people for your vote and you lose races. Hes not gone through that. So huh reacts this last two
weeks is a totally open question. I think its pretty clear how hell react. Hell keep doing those things that make him feel like its somebody elses fault that this has happened and hell keep doing those things that serve his selfinterests. The Clash Of Civilizations that really this represents is between selfinterest and a greater interest. Its between me and we. Thank god it looks like we is going to win because if it doesnt win, the planet isnt going to survive. And if trump i really believe that. I believe that were at a Turning Point here. And there are concentric circles of we, the we of the planet, the we of a whole bunch of stuff. Thank you both. The early returns from early voting. President obamas Battleground States Director on what early
votes tell us about where this race stands two weeks out and why the odds democrats take back the senate are Getting Better after a quick minute break. On the roaoaagn [ Front Assi Sounds [ Musi On The Roaoaagn [ girl lghs ] ike A Band Of Gypsies weo Down The Highway [ Beetle Horn Honk Standardeature you gete foless than you expeed hurry and lease for just 199 pa month. Would you lp me make art . Each one of or journe keeps us youn hey, i have an id well never get old. Artygoe amazing amazing
announcer give your Cardboard Box another fe. Woman how do we protect them from 4 billion in new cuts to california schools . Man vote yes on proposition 55. Woman prop 55 doesnt raise taxes on anyone. Man not on working californians, not small businesses. No one. Woman instead, prop 55 simply maintains the current tax rate on the wealthiest californians. Man so those who can most afford it continue paying their fair share. Woman . To prevent new education cuts. Man . And keep improving californias schools. Woman vote yes on prop 55 to help our children thrive. As Donald Trumps fortunes continue to slide, hes increasingly dragging the fortunes of Senior Republicans with him. The cook report saying that Senate Democrats are poised to pick up five to seven seats which would give them the majority. Races in the tossup column never split down the milled. One party tends to win the lions share of that. Theres not enough time for republicans to recover tossup seats in the states where Hillary Clinton is leading. Early voting is under way and trump wont be any help especially since his campaign doesnt have a ground game to speak of. Between the dnc and state Party OperationsCampaign Finance reports show democrats employ 5,138 staffers across 15 battleground states. Trumps campaign, the Republican National committee employ just 1400 staffers in 16 states. How well does that work for those who turn out for election day. Early voting data offers some potential insight. According to the Washington Post, the end of saturday, staffers s s celebrated 39,148 people had vetted compared to 33,187 in 2012. No wonder katy perry held a rally for Clinton In Clark County on saturday literally gave a ride to some attendees to some of the early voting spots afterwards. In a onetwo punch, President Obama was in the same county the next day. If theres a Single Person on earth who knows this data inside and out, its Mitch Stewart. Currently a partner at 270 strategists. I want to start with this before
we get to the early voting data. Its important for folks to understand when you were sitting at your perch in the 2012 campaign and folks were running the operation in clintons campaign, youre not looking at the real clear politics or 548, you have internal data. What is that made of and what does it say and tell you that we on the inside dont know . You have a voter file that has all kinds of different Data Information on these specific individuals. Their vote history, likely candidate preference. All kinds of things that you can look at. What you get then from the County Auditor or from the Secretary Of State are individual level returns. So you know exactly who voted early, and many times you know how they voted early, either in person or by mail. Then you can imagine that back to your existing database or voter file. And you know enough about those people you sort of profiled the them whether its
through their age, their education level, their ethnicity to be pretty confident who theyre actually voting for based on the models you have. No, exactly right. You look at two separate data points. The first is what we call a preference candidate model. Every voter will have a score from 1001. Out of 100 Mitch Stewarts, barack obama would get 1 vote. Ten people would vote for barack obama. 90 for mitt romney. You look at that and then you also look at your turnout score. How likely are you to vote if somebody were not to remind you . You have a score of 1001 on every single voter in that state. What you want to do with early vote, in most states, you want your supporters who have a middling turnout score, folks you Arent Superconfident they will vote on election day unless you remind them. You want them to vote early. If somebody lass a high turnout
score, irrespective if you remind them or not. You have the two scores. How likely am i to support the candidate that Mitch Stewart is supporting which would be barack obama you want people you are sure will vote for your candidate but in the middle of the propensity to turn out bau you can work on them in this sort of sustained fashion for this period and make sure they get in their own time and choosing. Thats exactly right. Not only do you measure your success from a field operation, you also measure your opponents success and who are they getting to turn out early . Are these getting out Election Day Voters and just doing it early or are they reaching into the people who would be less likely to participate so theyre growing their pie . So you look at both. You can do Something Like in 2012, say in a state like nevada, your campaign basically knew who won nevada before election day. You will have 80 of nevadans
vote early. We had about a 12point lead with 80 of the electorate in. The republicans would be literally like a 7030 win on election day to make up for that early vote deficit. Iowa is another example. Just 40 voted early and we had about a tenpoint lead. On election day republicans had almost an insurmountable gap to fill. You felt very, very comfortable with a couple of those states or you knew that this could be really, really close like florida. So it does provide you some assurance of whats going to happen on election day. But more importantly from a campaign perspective, it allows you to allocate resources more efficiently. So we stopped spending a ton of money in nevada once we realized that 80 of the electorate voted. We wind down the budget there and focus on a state like virginia where 90 of the state
will vote on election day because theres very little vote happening there. Well check in on Elizabeth Warren who is speaking moments ago. Take a listen. She gets up every day no, i hope you heard donald trump in the debate when he said that he was smart not to pay any taxes. Thats right. He is smart and all of you who pay taxes are dumb. Everyone who pays taxes. To keep our roads and bridges working is dumb. Everyone who pays taxes to support our world class military is dumb. Everyone who pays taxes to support medical research and Scientific Research is dumb. Dumb because donald trump doesnt