41 seconds ago. Theres a lot to keep an eye on as the returns come in and we begin tonight with our first fresh exclusive look at the actual exit polls for the day. Joining me to breakdown the latest batch of exit poll data hot off the presses, msnbc National Political correspondent Steve Kornacki. As this happens at 5 00, i believe . Now this is the apm, this is the full day what can you tell us . Just in, the last five minutes, basically the headline from this, theres something in here that each campaigns going to like. Let me take you through what we have. First of all this question of composition of the electorate. What did it look like today . The headline from these numbers is this. 30 of the electorate right now in the exit poll is black. We talked in the runup to this race about how important to demok made up 28 of the electorate. Tc that was supposed to be the high watermark for democrats. Good news was 26 , 27 . Right now an exit poll seth 30 of this electorate is black tonight. So that is extremely good news for democrats. I say theres something in here for both parties. I want to go through and see obama in 2012 got 15 , got blown out in the state. The threshold was 30 , 35 , depending. This is a touch lower than the Jones Campaign wants to be seeing, 27 . Break it down, hes losing double digits with collegeeducated white voters. Thats the group he thought he could make inroads with. So Jones Campaign may be a little short in this exit poll with white voters. They also are doing a little better with black voters than they thought. So chris, as i said, there is something here for each campaign right now. Obviously we dont have any returns yet. And one of the things thats happened in the runup to this election is its almost created a new kind of way of pollsters communicating. Because it is such a black box to everyone. How the heck to model what this electorate looks like. These those two data points would seem to be in line with a kind of pollster average and pollster predictions of a close race. Wherever that closeness ends up. Yeah, and mean, again, if you looked at this right now, if you took each one of these in isolation, if we just looked at the white vote in this race, wed be saying, okay, you know what this was a good night for roy moore. If you said to anybody coming into today that 30 of the electorate was going to be blacn tonight, oh my god, thats beyond best case scenario. So i think this is looking close right now. Cliche, well see what happens when the returns come in. But you talk about those models beforehand. Nobody was talking about 30 black vote. Give us a little context. Its funny because you talk about 2012, the last time barack obama was on the ballot, you get a fairly high black turnout for the state of alabama. Of course obama loses by 23 pints or something in the neighborhood of 23 points in 2012. I mean, it has beene2qb a very time since there was a very competitive statewide federal race in the state of alabama. Yeah, 1996, that was the year Jeff Sessions won his senate seat the first time, the margin was 7 points in alabama. The last time you had a singledigit senate race in alabama. Last time you got within a couple of points, 1 point. 1996. Richard shelby, the current senior republican senator, he won his seat in 86 by a fraction of a point. Otherwise, races with 30, 40 points, sessions essentially unopposed one year, thats been the norm. One more question. Those races are happening before the partisan shortingout is happening in the south like y its sort of the postcivil war regime crumbles in the and 90s, now a solid bloc of Republican Voters. The final question here. Youve been making this point, i think its an interesting one as we look at more exit polling data, things about abortion, things about what party you support, who you want to be running the u. S. Senate. You made this point, i think its very astute, if this were a statewide Supreme Court race, you think moore would basically be toast. L that the thing that has kept him going is that voters, particularly diehard, bleedred Republican Voters, are thinking, i may not like roy moore but what is at stake is control of the United States senate federally. Take a look, i think we can call this up here. This was roy moores last election in alabama. Five years ago hes on the ballot, mitt romneys winning the state on this same day with 62 of the vote. Roy moore barely wins this election. Roy moore, before any of the baggage weve talked about for the last few weeks, he had enough baggage to nearly lose a statewide race where theres no issues of who are you going to appoint a Supreme Court justice to decide roe versus wade . Its not attached to any of that. U7c huge liability for the republicans in 2012 before all of this. 0dz again, we have in an exit poll finding, which party do you want controlling the senate . They say republicans. Moores hoping people vote for the party, not the person. One more followup require think its word noting as well. You talk about roy moore and what makes this the race so hard to figure out. Roy moore as singular figure. He wins that race, goes back to the state Supreme Court, hes been removed once for disobeying federal law. He will then end up removed again, right . So even when he jumps into this primary and before hx t the Washington Post story in which a 14yearold says he picked her up outside a custody hearing and molested her. Before that, after that election, which he ekes out by 4 points, he gets removed again from the state Supreme Court in alabama. And that was over the issue of gay marriage. It was the Ten Commandments a decade ago. Then it was gay marriage. If roy moore is a figure now basically two decades in alabama, this is a very well known guy. This is an intensely polarizing figure in alabama. Then you throw all of this in. Its the ultimate test between person and party. Po on this. Doug jones was from the beginning a credible candidate, whether people are going to vote for him or not. This is not someone they found at the last second, this was someone who had a profile, a resume, a story to tell. His run i think as a campaign, a very respectable campaign. I think the one question, if he comes up short, who knows, there5u thing people will look at, not so much a question of strategy, but just sort of a whatif, is that question of abortion. Because its in the exit poll tonight. 54 of alabamians say they believe abortion should be illegal. He took a prochoice positig,h;n this race. Thats something the moore people were talking about. Thats something they wanted to bring up. Can you win with the prochoice label in one of the most antiabortion states in the country . You couldnt get seven seconds into conversation with any moore surrogate anywhere in the state of alabamaefih with abortion coming up. They clearly thought that and control of the senate is their ace in the hole. Steve kornacki, that was great. Were going to check back with you throughout the night. Lets go to montgomery, alabama. The Roy Moore Election night headquarters. Weve got nbc news correspondent Vaughn Hilliard standing by. I want to saya88un you have bee doing phenomenal reporting on this race throughout. Ive been following everything youve been posting. Great interviews, talking to lots of voters. How would you characterize how folks have been talking about this race in the final stretch . I appreciate uay chris. I should note that when we were looking at talking to these voters, theres two types of voters. Theres hesitant voters that are hesitant about roting for roy moore, understanding the allegations against him theres also hesitant voters who are not open about their5 willnessing vote for democrat doug jones. Today montgomery, there were several people, they will tell you, i dont want to tell you hoy voted for. Finally iehd0x convinced them tl mexeo. n to the side, without their name, not on camera. They were republicans who were opening and up saying, we voted foreq5l doug joents. Many saying, for the first time in their lives. I talked with a schoolteacher, amanda adams, who said she hasnt voted for a democrat in 20 years but she said she was willing to make that sacrifice despite knowing what it may mean to the u. S. Senate and vote for doug jones, democrat in this race. I want to bring up what is i think interesting. I just finished talking with a Campaign Official here at roy moore headquarters watch party. Usually at this point, were just five÷hn minutes after the polls closing, usually the campaigns have a little better sense of tracking of where this race is. Yesterday a Campaign Official for moore told me . R they were confident, up 8. 5 , suggesting they were baked in, winning this, while maintaining support in the more traditionally conservative places like baldwin and shelby county. Just now i said, where do you feel youre at . They said, were seeing high voter turnout. Couldnt offer specifics. Talking with the doug Jones Campaign this afternoon, they also said, were seeing a high voter turnout. Its very much up in the air what that means. You went throu all those exit polls there with steve. And its tough. Weve been here for more than a month. To try to track down particularly where those republican crossover voters, its very difficult. I think they were questioning up to this very end. One last number i want to throw out from exit polls is 31 of roy moore voters here today say they voted for him despite hesitancy. Which was in stark contrast to those, about 80 , that said for doug jones that they voted for him with full confidence, without hesitancy. Zs÷ so its a question of how many republicans voted him knowing that. A great point by vaughn there about shyyzky6 voters in both c not wanting to publicize their vote for different kind of sets of reasons. And von, that point about crossover republicans. Between high turnout among youn voters and africanamerican voters, some segment of crossover voters is necessary state that donald trump won by nearly 30 points. Vaughn hillyer at the montgomery headquarters, well come back to you. Birmingham, alabama, to the doug jones Election Night par3an n n news correspondent katie beck, whats happening there . Good evening. L uatz in here in. At a d speaking to voters, also encountering a lot of that,4yh consternation that vaughn was we heard from one gentleman who said he was writing in nick saban instead of voting for roy moore. He said he was a long have time alabama fan, he simply didnt know what to do, he had a crisis when he headed into the polls and thats how he came out. But these voters, obviously this is something theyve been wrestling with, seeing the national attention. And they expressed to me how hard this hasidzn been on alabas a state. A lot of them feel theyve been misportrayed in the media, feel theyve been center stage for something they dont want to be although it should be noted if roy moore is United States ju senator, the National Coverage and National Spotlight on him individually in the state of alabama will probably continue. Katie beck, thank you for the update, appreciate it. ciz thank you. With me now, Democratic National committee tom perez, who was in alabama this weekend working to get out the vote for doug jones. And tom, bfqb3 y there was somd forth about the whether the dnc was going to commit to this race. Am i right that you were there this weekend this. No,y2y i wasnt tmttny we had our team there, chris. We have hood a team there throughout, frankly from before the republican primary, because weve been allin for a long time. Doug jones is a spectacular candidate. And this case wasnt about right versus left, its about right versus wrong. Doug stands for everything that we should be fighting for. heres the problem that strikes me if youre running the dnc, as you are. The democratic brand is not great in alabama. Thats not a knock on the Democratic Party, just is the fact of the matterm÷ go in that state. What do you do when the Democratic Party brand is not great, but theres a huge amount of grass roots energy, a huge amount of grass roots fundraising. You obviously want doug jones to win a race that as of the last six d™eeks looks possible. What do you do to help him win without tying up the National Party in a way that hurts him . P do to helpurc ÷ candidates. Thats what we did for doug. Doug has a 67county strategy. Because not only does he have to win in birmingham and huntsville and mobile and montgomery and the bike belt, he has to hold his own in other counties. He cant get shellacked like prior Democratic Candidates got. We invested in organizing, we invested in digital, were out there. Cn7d turning out voters, knocking on doors. Calling people. Texting people. Thats what campaigns are about. Thats what the new Democratic Party is about. Organizing, organizing everywhere. Helping democrats win. I understand that youre responsible for organizing and not messages but let me ask you this given that its a conservative state and people have the politics they have, and doug jones is democrat, what do4 you talk about to Republican Voters in those sorts of places where you cant get crushed as you say that is both true to the core values of the Democratic Party and is also youre going to find some sort of receptive audience among folks that have been voting republican in alabama . Well, you talk about the issues they care about. Doug jones is all about kitchentable. He was talking about good jobs. He was talking about theu,ji lc that his dad was a steel , he understands blue collar work. Hes talking about the fact that if obamacare gets repealed, im sure he doesnt call it obamacare, but if it gets repealed, that the access to that rural clinic is at risk. As you know, we talked a lot in virginia, the number one issue for voters in virginia was health care. They went overwhelmingly for the democrat. So the beauty of this situation is theop 7x message of Economic Opportunity is a message i think that resonates everywhere. The voters of alabama, and i have spent a lot of time out there because ive done civil rights work down in alabama. Thats how i met doug. Ive known him almost 20 years. The voters of alabama dont want someone in washington whos fighting culture wars. Thats what roy moore wants to do. They want someone whos fighting for good jobs, for fair wages, for access to health care. Let me ask you about that. One of the things a lot of people have pointed to in reporting on this race down there, and we looked at the cross tabs about abortion. This is a very, very antiabortion state. That is the way thats the place the electorate is. Its very antiabortion state among black voters as well. Although theres a majority that support it. Its a higher number that are opposed to owe abortion in that state than other plates in other states. Is there a problem for doug jones in taking essentially the national Democratic Partys line on this issue in alabama . Listen, as vaughns. Thing a few minutes go highlighted, for a lot of voters in alabama, this came down to not an issue of right versus left, but right versus wrong. The Family Values Party cant possibly be the party of roy moore. This is more than about party. And i admire the republicans and the democrats and independents in alabama that have understood that there are times when you go to the voting booth that its about more than one issue. Its about your identity as a state and as a nation. As doug correctly said, vocals involved in abusing children should be prosecuted, not put in the u. S. Senate. I think a lot of folks understood that. Ive talked to a lot of businesspeople in alabama over the course of the work i have done, and theyre for doug jones because they know hes going to fight for a Good Business climate in alabama. How do you go recruit businesses tol n come into alabama when yo number one surrogate is roy moore . How do you make that sell to that company . That was a team that doug jones was hitting particularly down the stretch of this campaign. Tom perez, thanks for making time for me this evening. Pleasure to be with you. Much more on the highstakes senate race in alabama, how it got to this point, the reverberations on capitol hill. The elected. And the loselose situation the Republican Party as a whole findsist find s itself in at this hour. I generall lly consider mys to be a republican but today i voted democrat for doug jones. I do believe that roy moore is a sexual predator. Hes been removed from office twice. So in my opinion he thinks hes above the law. I voted for roy moore. And i just believe a man, until hes actually convicted of something, you cant go by hearsay or what other democrats what other parties are trying to say he has done. Alabama senate race is one of the strangest elections in years, if not decades. Republican roy moore was already disliked by a wide swath of his party because of his homophobe yeah his religious bigotry, and his in your face lawlessness that got him removed from the Supreme Court twice. Then came the Sexual Misconduct accusations. The Washington Post reporting an allegation that roy moore had molested a 14yearold girl. Allegations of Sexual Assault of other teens followed. A deep, deep conservative bonered state where a democrat has a chance to win a senate seat. Josh moon the alabama political reporter joins me live from montgomery. Josh, start on the dynamics of the last six week in the wake of the Washington Post revelat n revelations and how that shaped the terrain of t