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MSNBCW Ana July 4, 2024

Womens right, yulia navalny. Whatever it is, we can all do it together. That does it for us this morning. Yasmin vossoughian picks up the coverage right now. Right now on msnbc, a new salvo against russia, the white house announcing over 500 new sanctions this morning against russian entities, as the war in ukraine approaches the twoyear mark. Will it be enough to hurt russias war machine . Plus, the final stretch, the South Carolina Republican Primary Set for tomorrow, both donald trump and nikki haley making their final pitches to the vote. Our very own Steve Kornacki is here with a preview. Later on as well, trumps latest try to get the classified documents case thrown out. But will it work . Hi, everything, good to see you. Good morning to you. Im Yasmin Vossoughian in for ana cabrera live here in new york. Were going to begin with that Breaking News this morning, the white house taking a new aim at russia and russian president Vladimir Putin with 500 new sanctions. The largest round of sanctions since the invasion of ukraine began. Theyre mostly not against household names, but instead targeting key parts of russias financial and military infrastructure as well as people outside of russia, who have helped russia, quote, maintain and build the war machine. They come on the twoyear anniversary of the invasion into ukraine and one week after the death of russian Opposition Leader alexei navalny. Also with us is michael allen, former special Assistant To The President and senior director of the National Security council and staff director of the house intel committee. Aaron, if you will, start us off from the white house. Walk us through these sanctions that were getting in along with the reaction to the twoyear anniversary of the war in ukraine . We are just getting more details about these sanctions, and obviously with that anniversary coming tomorrow, these sanctions are targeted at russia because of its invasion and subsequent war in ukraine as well as the death of alexei navalny. The president putting out a statement early this morning, making clear those are the two reasons were seeing this significant number of sanctions being presented. 500 sanctions coming from the department of treasury and the Department Of State that will target people who were connected to Alexei Navalnys imprisonment as well as different people in the russian community, individuals, government officials, there are businesses, other people who have had ways of financing russias war effort as well as the Defense Industrial complex inside russia. I want you to hear a little bit of what the Deputy Treasury Secretary had to say about this issue when he spoke to reuters about these sanctions. We know that russia has grossly violated not only the human rights of the ukrainian people, but also the human rights of russians. Our goal ultimately is to put us in a position where we hold russia accountable for the actions that theyve taken, and thats exactly what were going to continue to do. And significantly, i think, yasmin, part of the sanctions were seeing today will include the administration going after sanctions evaders. There have been many sanctions levied against russia over the last two years, and there have been ways russia has been able to find around these sanctions, and today were seeing another targeting of these evasion tactics. The Commerce Department has been taking action with trade restrictions on some 90 companies that the president has said have been in the background supporting russia. Yasmin. Richard, i want to talk through a couple of things. I want to talk first and foremost about navalnys mother and what were hearing from her in the wake of her sons death. I know theres been some advancement on that conversation, along with kind of the reaction weve been hearing from these new sanctions that have been leveled against russia. So since we were just talking about it, ill start with the sanctions. People here say there is no substitute for weapons, that the Sanctions System has already been tried and has not been terribly successful. The russian economy has proven to be very robust, particularly as china, india, and brazil have stepped in and bought a lot of russian oil. According to one count, since the invasion two years ago in february 2022, there have been about 16,500 sanctions imposed on russia by the United States, europe, and other allies of ukraine, so with these new sanctions that brings it to 17,000. Wow. Yet, the russian economy has proven to be quite strong and in some cases, is even growing. So i think the effectiveness of these sanctions, certainly from a ukrainian perspective, has played out, and they say what they really need, what the soldiers in the trenches need, is not more of the same but something different, which the United States so far has not been able to produce, which is Consensus Aid to get money and weapons here quickly. In terms of navalnys mother, she was given an offer, she says, by the Prison Authority to receive the body of her son, of alexei navalny, but on one condition, one condition she found unacceptable because she gave her response online calling it a crime. She said that navalny, the prison authorities said that they could hand over her son only if she conducted a burial in secret so that there would not be any rallying point, that there wouldnt become protests, it wouldnt become an antigovernment movement. She said she signed a death certificate. Russian officials insist that navalnys cause of death was natural causes, but she said that she refused to accept this condition of a secret burial. So richard, you said something that stood out to me, which was how folks are reacting and that is that sanctions dont substitute for the weapons that they need on the battlefield. Were on the eve of the twoyear anniversary of the invasion into ukraine. What does the battlefield look like today . Reporter the battlefield doesnt look great. I was just out in a front line village the other day. We are now in the city of kharkiv, which itself has come under attack numerous times, and there are many analysts in this country who believe that russia still has designs on this city, which is the second largest city in ukraine. It is the sort of unofficial capital of the east. Russia initially tried to take it over in the early days of the war, carried out a very destructive campaign here, and then was pushed back from this city and from the region around this city. But those attacks have increased here. They have increased along much of the eastern and southern are front lines as russia is using it, using what it can use, its strategic advantage. It has more troops. It has a greater population. It has a bigger military industrial base. The problem with ukraine from the start has always been that it is dependent on United States and europe for its weapons, for its ability to wage war against russia. This has always been a david and goliath struggle, but the u. S. Has been arming david with a lot more than a slingshot, and now that the weapons arent coming, the fundamental imbalance here between the two countries, between russia and ukraine, is becoming more apparent. Thats why they say more sanctions or people here say more sanctions arent necessarily what they need. Theyve already tried that, and in this world of fluid money, in this polarized world where the u. S. And russia economies are already effectively decoupled, that this is just more of the same and that what they need are guns and bombs to stop the russian assault. Michael, im going to come to you in just a moment on sanctions. Aaron, i just want to quickly get to where we are when it comes to an aid package. I know schumers on the ground right now in ukraine with a senate delegation, right . Theyre trying to get this thing over the finish line because of issues like what richard just laid out for us on the battlefield. Where are we on this . Reporter so we know that the Senate Passed the 60 billion plan that would provide that money for ukraine to be able to replenish its supplies on the battlefield and that that measure has been stuck in the house. Weve heard from President Biden while he was traveling yesterday in california, and every other member of the administration whos spoken about ukraines needs, theyve said that the House Of Representatives needs to take action on this plan that has been put in front of them, rather than be on vacation as they are this week. That seems to be the position the administration is taking here, not that they have a backup plan or a plan b to get these supplies to ukraine. They want to hammer home the fact that the House Of Representatives held up the process and by holding up the process, they are further enabling russia to continue to attack ukraine and to make the inroads that its been making particularly in the last couple of weeks or the last couple of months, since the last aid package the u. S. Was able to are provide to ukraine which was back in december. At this point, it does seem as though this push for the house to make a move and the push for more sanctions combined is the plan that the u. S. That the Biden Administration is trying to advance at this point. All right, michael, lets talk through sanctions first, and then i want to talk about the battlefield in ukraine. So first and foremost is kind of the question of effectiveness of these sanctions. Take a look at richard laid this out for us, the number of sanctions that have been leveled against moscow over the last two years or so since this invasion began. Theyre in the thousands at this point, but then you look at the gdp, this is coming from cnbc, the Economic Growth of russia as reported by the International Monetary fund, raising it from 1. 1 to 2. 6 , so they are seeing growth to their economy in spite of the fact that all these sanctions have been leveled against them. How effective really are they in deterring kind of Vladimir Putin acting with the impunity that he has . So i dont i dont think that they are going to be valuable for deterring putin. What we hope it will do is slow down the growth of the russian economy and slow down the transfers of oil, of energy, and banks that finance the transfer of that energy. That is the touch stone of an effective sanctions regime against the russians. Does it take on their chief export, and so as we pore through these sanctions, those are the things we need to look for. The banks and the energy sector, and then it will be more likely that these sanctions will be more effective in the longterm. Were also hearing some of these sanctions are involving sanctioning iran as well because theyre worried about iran continuing to supply weapons to russia on the battlefield in ukraine, which we know they have done in the past. Speaking, michael, if we can quickly about the battlefield in ukraine as well, the lack of weapons that they have right now, right, which allows Vladimir Putin and the Russian Military to advance further, they just took a key city in ukraine. Do you think congress do you think americans in general understand how important it is to stop Vladimir Putin in his advancement and what it means kind of geopolitically . I think that over time, those of us who support more assistance to ukraine are beginning to lose the battle. We need to do a more effective job, President Biden needs to do a more effective job of explaining why its in the National Interest of the United States, and if we dont stop the russians in ukraine over time, theyre going to continue to roll westward and threaten nato, and it will be much more expensive then. So i believe weve got to continue to hit these arguments very far. By the way, i mean, i know donald trump is not wild about more assistance to ukraine, but i think he gave the House Republicans an opening recently. He said why dont we do this as a loan . I know thats not ideal, but it reminds me of lynn lease in world war ii that fdr did. Maybe we should take yes for an answer, convert it into some sort of loan, worry about the Repayment Options later. Maybe thats a quicker way from a to b to change the legislation and get the money and the weapons to the ukrainians as soon as possible . Michael allen, thank you. Richard engel, aaron gilchrist, thank you guys as well still ahead a freed hostages fight to release fellow captives from hamas. And the legal setback in one Donald Trumps other cases. Up first, a South Carolina showdown, Steve Kornacki is here to break it all down, the stakes of tomorrows gop primary. While its an Uphill Battle for nikki haley in her home state, not everybody is on board with trump. Even if she doesnt have a chance, i just want to make sure that she knows that people here support her. E support her. Not for sudden breathing problems. Allergic reactions can occur. Get help right away for swelling of face, mouth, tongue, or trouble breathing. Infections that can cause shingles have occurred. Dont stop steroids unless told by your doctor. Tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection. May cause headache, Injection Site reactions, back pain, and fatigue. Ask an Asthma Specialist if nucala is right for you. I know what its like to perform through pain. If youre like me, one of the millions suffering from pain caused by migraine, Nurtec Odt May help. Its the only medication that can treat a migraine when it strikes and prevent migraine attacks. Treat and prevent, all in one. Dont take if allergic to nurtec. Allergic reactions can occur, even days after using. Most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. Relief is possible. Talk to a doctor about nurtec odt. Tomorrow is the republican primary in South Carolina, the ultimate test for nikki haley in her home state, but can she breakthrough Donald Trumps commanding lead in the polls, i want to bring in nbc news Correspondent Ali Vitali in moncks corner, South Carolina. Steve kornacki here at the big board, and joseph bustos. Expectations for tomorrow, what are we looking at . By all the polling, donald trump obviously the huge favorite tomorrow. It would be a monumental upset if nikki haley won but lets take a look at the basic demographic question here for her, sort of the political demographics. That is to say take a look back to the last contest. Nikki haley lost it to donald trump by 11 points, but it really tells the story of what we see in every poll in every state on the republican side. Its this. In New Hampshire, remember, independents could vote. You know, democrats, selfidentified democrats could vote as well. Half the electorate, half the electorate, only one out of every two votes was actually a selfidentified republican in New Hampshire. And look at that, donald trump won by almost 50 points with them. The reason haley only lost by 11 is look at this massive number of independents who voted in New Hampshire, and she won them by 19 points. Theres even a group of selfidentified democrats who voted as well. Look at that, she won them basically almost unanimously. This combination of independents and democrats, they were together half the electorate in New Hampshire. Wow. And haley cleaned up with them, but she got clobbered among republicans and it translated to an 11 point loss for her statewide. Why am i bringing this up . South carolinas an open primary. Theres no Party Registration in the state. Haley to have any chance of winning or at least having a strong showing, this is the same dynamic shes relying on. She needs a big number of independents, a big number of democrats, and the issue in South Carolina is history says they dont vote at this level. Take a look here, this is the breakdown this century of republicans, independents, democrats, this is based on how they identify themselves in republican primaries. Last time around 2016, it was 24 total, independents plus democrats. In New Hampshire last month it was 50, in 2012 the total was 29. In 2008 the total was 20. 2000 is the closest it gets to an electorate that haleys looking for. It was 30 independent, 9 democratic, it added up to 39 total. That was the bush mccain contest, you remember mccain was hugely popular with independent voters and even some democrats. That 39 of the electorate in 2000 being an independent or a democrat, even that mccain still lost by 11. Haley going to have to get an even bigger number. A significantly bigger number of independents and democrats. Shes going to have to make history. Shes going to have to bring out an electorate in the South Carolina republican primary that is composed of more independents and more democrats than we have ever seen. Ali, is she going to make history . What are you hearing . Reporter i am so glad that s

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