Transcripts For MSNBCW Erin 20240705 : vimarsana.com

Plus, rising tensions in the red sea. The u. S. Military firing on houthi vessels targeting commercial ships. Were live in the region. Also ahead, under pressure. The u. S. Supreme court facing even more calls to take up the president ial immunity issue, with donald trump facing several trials this year. And later, decision 2024, the iowa caucus now just two weeks away. But is there any real competition in a gop field dominated by trump . Hey, there. Happy new year. Im steven romo in new york. We start with 24 with yet another escalating situation in the middle east. This time involving the u. S. Navy. Tehran ns agencies say an ann warship is operating in the red sea, potentially near some u. S. Destroyers. This adding to tensions following u. S. Military helicopters sinking three houthi boats early sunday, killing ten members of the malitia. Central command said the houthis were feet away from boarding a commercial cargo ship and they shot at u. S. Aircraft responding to the ships distress call. This marks an aggressive step as the Biden Administration has to look now at potential direct strikes on irans proxies inside yemen. The read sea tensions are part of concerning spillover from the israel hamas war, an operation israel vows will continue throughout 2024. So lets break it down. Joining me is nbcs jay bra from tel aviv, Counterterrorism Analyst and special op veteran, aaron cohen and former assistant deputy of state, joel reuben. As for those reports of an iranian warship in the red sea, just how volatile is the situation there right now . Yeah, look, at the very least this is certainly not trending in the right direction. Youve now got an iranian ship in the waters there, you have a u. S. Presence, you had this back and forth today with the houthi fighters. The First Response from u. S. Troops has ended in fatalities with ten of the men onboard those ships dying, and this is something thats been building for the better part of a month now. Youve seen back and forth across the region between u. S. Troops and some of these organizations, and all of them, frankly, backed by iran and now you see iran moving a ship into the red sea. There is, of course, a u. S. Presence there as well. Its been a Growing Point of concern not only here in country, in israel, but globally people are looking at this very closely, and it comes as weve continued to see a buildup of strikes back and forth along the lebanon border with hezbollah and the israeli troops there. I can tell you i know that israel is building forces along the border with lebanon, theyre moving in more equipment at this point, and its not a good look at the very least, with a lot of people concerned it could be a new front in this war. Yes, so concerning. Jay gray, thank you so much for that update. Joel, describe what is likely happening inside the u. S. Government as they try to figure out how to respond to this, and how do our saudi allies factor into their decision . Yeah, steven, its great to be with you, and happy new year. Look, within the Biden Administration right now clearly the top line of concern, as jay pointed out, is to prevent a regi spillover. But whats happening right n is the houthis are aggressively attacking International Commerce and trade lanes and ships that are not attacking anybody. And so this is a real violation of International Law and in the United States we have a longterm obligation to protect those seaways and to ensure that commerce goes through unfettered. To your question about the gulf countries, they are directly impacted and they, too, have a stake in this. So a lot of consultation right now between the United States and our gulf allies to ensure that the Shipping Lanes are protected. It impacts the entire region. The houthis, backed by iran, are taking aggressive action that is unprovoked and unjustified and against International Law, and the message needs to get to tehran they need to cool it because its only going to increase the attacks we saw over the last 24 hours or so and were going to see an american response to any aggressive actions by the houthis. Many reasons to be concerned, including the economics. Aaron, lets bring you in. Will the u. S. Response, will that deter the houthis, or could it embolden them instead . Well, its yet to be seen. Happy new year, steve. Good to see you. I think what were seeing right now is were seeing iran pawing at the bear. They want to see how the u. S. Is going to respond, they want to get a sense of the tone. How far can we push the United States right now . I think on a macro level thats what theyre doing. On the micro picture, what were seeing now is the deployment of drones, suicide drones, very cheap, theyre very accurate. They can change midflight. Thats what a couple of these last attacks weve seen, especially with the ships. What happens if these drones, it allows iran while this might be a proxy, maybe the houthis understand that these are just extensions of iran, of the ayatollah, of the islamic regime and theyre targeting the economics here. They want to show the United States that, no matter how big and how giant is muscle is of the u. S. , that these tiny little groups can affect the economy on a global scale. And your guess was right, thats exactly what its going to do. Its going to start to trigger financial repercussions and creating a psychological dent. In this case, its going to happen specifically through economic hitting of those seaways, passageways, so the u. S. Really needs to pull in and start getting focused with counter strikes, but to be careful not to let this spill out too quickly, too aggressively, too soon. Yeah, thats been the fear of so many, the spillover happening. None of this is happening in a vacuum. We know the houthis say they are standing with the palestinians against the Israeli Operations going on in gaza. Meanwhile, weve learned the idf is pulling some reservists out of gaza right now. From a special ops perspective, how could that impact the fight Going Forward . Well, so the Biden Administration made it very clear to netanyahu, to the idf, we dont want to see the Aerial Bombardments that happened, which were successful, but theres collateral damage. However, israel has incredibly talented special operations units, the king fisher unit, but they want more activity. So the idf is scaling back the reservists, in hopes to stimulate the economy. Back in israel, get the economy back open and moving. Its been halted for about 80 plus days. The other thing it does, israel is going to keep an eye on the northern border. Hezbollah has a lot more fighters than hamas. What israel is going to do is turn their special operations units, the commander brigade, the unit thats been hitting the tunnels, the eod unit thats been destroying those tunnels, so theyre going to try and focus more on getting barrels inside structures, neutralizing terrorists. It creates a higher level of selectivity, reduces barrels getting on innocent civilians like the unfortunate casualties that happened last week with the surrendering hostages. It wasnt a hostage rescue mission, they just ended up escaping from captors. Its more dangerous for the idf. So theyre really going to focus on a core couple thousand troops from their commando forces, let them continue to do that slow and deliberate clearing. Its brilliant, a lot safer, and its going to take five or six more months. Keep this in mind. The longer it takes for israel to demilitarize the gaza strip, the greater the threat i believe is going to increase to u. S. National security, because were going to see more and more emboldening of them calling for more protests, which could potentially escalate and its going to call on u. S. Law enforcement. The next thing is for americans to get ready for a potential spillover, particularly in the Law Enforcement community here. Potential, more potential international spillover. Joel, i wanted to ask you about Secretary Of State blinken. Hes soon going to make his fifth trip to israel since the war started, and it comes as the civilian death toll in gaza is getting close to 22,000. What more can the State Department do to pressure netanyahu on the issue of these civilian casualties . Yeah, look, steven, i think Secretary Blinken is going to bring the message hes been bringing consistently, which is that the United States stands with israel in its mission to eliminate hamas threat to israel, the physical threat, the Terrorist Threat that it embodies, while also calling on the israelis to do more for civilian protection, as were discussing, and that includes ensuring the provision of humanitarian assistance, that that gets in at a higher level than it has been. And then, b, this big question about the end state, what is going to be there in gaza the day after Major Military operations. Does israel really want to reoccupy gaza . I dont think so. I dont think the israeli people want to be controlling gaza. So what kind of Governance Structure will there be . Thats where the Secretary Of State has a tremendous opportunity to continue to lay out not just for the israeli people, but also for the palestinians and the countries in the middle east and the arab world, talk about the dayafter scenario where the palestinians get governance and they have a horizon that hopefully drains future potential for terrorist recruitment. Thats part of this. And weve learned these lessons the hard way, in afghanistan and iraq. In the United States we fought hard wars in these countries and there was a lot of loss and a lot of heartbreak. And part of the Lessons Learned are that a political horizon matters, an effective one, that the Military Operation only is never good enough. Joel, i also wanted to ask you about the developing news, the Associated Press is now reported that israel is rolling back some of the judicial overhauls that started those huge protests that dominated the headlines, of course, before october 7th. Whats your reaction to this rolling back . You know, thats the kind of divisiveness that we saw within israels body of politics, the nation, the people coming out, The Hundreds Of Thousands protesting the idea that their democracy would be rolled back. And i think weve seen former leaders as well publicly expressing apology and asking for forgiveness from the israeli people for creating division. And this division had a Security Impact because it distracted the Israeli Security establishment from many of its objectives in terms of protecting the borders, and a lot of the leadership got in the cross hairs of Prime Minister netanyahu. So hopefully this will continue and this will help israel as a country be more solid Going Forward. One thing weve seen after october 7th is the unity of the israeli people and thats why hamas deeply miscalculated. Hamas misread the idea there was a civil debate as somehow creating an opportunity to strike. Israel unified, and hopefully this will continue in this way and the democratic tradition of israel will continue as it has always been, where theres vibrant debate, but not where a Supreme Court and judicial reforms are pushed through in a narrow margin. It will be interesting to see how this continues to unfold, that Breaking News were following, israels Supreme Court overturning key parts of the judicial overhaul. Aaron, thank you both for being here today, well continue to follow this. Lets turn to the Breaking News we were talking about at the top of the hour. This time out of japan. A Tsunami Advisory in effect there after a series of strong earthquakes struck in the sea of japan. The largest of those was a magnitude 7. 6, thats according to japans meteorological agency. Those quakes shook the foundation of peoples homes and businesses, leading to at least one Building Collapse in the city of wajima. Joining me now with more, nbcs Meagan Fitzgerald and meteorologist bill karins with us. What do we know about the situation and the damage right now . Reporter well, look, given the fact that were talking about a series of earthquakes hitting the region, including the one you mentioned, the 7. 6 magnitude quake, we have not seen significant widespread damage where youre seeing entire areas flattened. But we are seeing, of course, reports of collapsed buildings, roads that have buckled, damage to homes and structures. We know according to officials on the ground, there are several people that are trapped beneath the rubble of homes and buildings that collapsed. Now, at this hour there have been dozens of injuries as well that have been reported, ranging from critical to non lifethreatening. Meanwhile, there is concern for those aftershocks, not only for today, but for the next week ahead, where buildings and structures that have already been compromised could collapse. Meanwhile, we know that the Prime Minister has asked for the additional help from the military and for needed supplies to come in by boat, as many of those main access roads have been damaged by the earthquake. Were just seeing some of that intense video of the shaking as well. Bill, what about this Tsunami Advisory . What does that mean for people in the area . Yeah, its important for everyone to know that the main earthquake, the big one, was about 2 00 in the morning east coast time, so the threat from that tsunami is long gone. It didnt happen. There was warnings that went out that said it could be up to 6 meters high and that brings visions of the horrific tsunami that hit on the east coast of japan. This does show you where the epicenter was. Now, we still have tsunami advisories, so you say its gone, why do we have advisories . Were still getting aftershocks. And theyre saying for anyone on the coastal sections, if we get a Strong Enough aftershock, there could be a minimal tsunami that heads toward the coastal areas. Nothing like the 7. 6. In case youre wondering, tokyo is located here. Tokyo really didnt get much shaking. The little tiny peninsula here in the northern portion, thats where we had the severe damage, thats where roads are cut off, power is out, weve had structures collapse. The earthquake occurred about six miles down underneath the ground. The more shallow an earthquake is, the more dangerous because its closer to the surface. The deeper, the less dangerous it is. This was about six miles. When we see the pictures, its nighttime. Tomorrow morning when we start getting images, this peninsula is where all the problems are. The roads are so bad getting in theyre having to put supplies and stuff on boats, steven. Thats why the rescuers are going to get into this area. They cant drive in with heavy equipment. Its 30 degrees, people, if they are buried in the rubble, thats very cold. Youre worried about hypothermia, and they cant get heavy equipment in. Thats the situation on the ground. Concern for them and for people without power dealing with those temperatures. And, megan, whenever we heard about an earthquake in japan and Tsunami Warnings, its hard not to think about the 2011 fukushima disaster. What do we know about the condition of japans Nuclear Power plants right now . Reporter right now government Officials Say the Nuclear Plants in the area have not seen any irregularities, but you can bet that theyre keeping a close eye on those plants because in 2011 there was that massive earthquake, which triggered a tsunami where we saw that huge wave crash into the Fukushima Nuclear plant, causing a nuclear meltdown. Of course, thats not the situation thats happening now. Officials do not see any irregularities, but theyre keenly aware of how serious thisization is on many fronts. Im certain they are tracking this closely. Thank you both. And still to come, a challenging question, the issue of whether or not donald trump will be on some states primary ballots. It could come down to the Supreme Court. What that decision entails when were back in just 60 seconds. Youre watching msnbc. Next week in d. C. , a federal Appeals Court will hear arguments on former president trumps effort to toss out his election interference case. Umps legal team is making the case for broad immunity, arguing that his alleged attempt to overturn the 2020lection was already litigated in congress during his second Impeachment Trial. Trump,course, was acquitted there. On saturday, Special Couns jack smith pushed back, Writing Ourt Filing that, quote, rather than vindicating our constitutional framework, the defendants sweeping Immunity Claim threatens to license president s who commit crimes to remain in office. The founders did not intend such a result. So joining us now, msnbc legal analyst Biden Administration<\/a> has to look now at potential direct strikes on irans proxies inside yemen. The read sea tensions are part of concerning spillover from the israel hamas war, an operation israel vows will continue throughout 2024. So lets break it down. Joining me is nbcs jay bra from tel aviv, Counterterrorism Analyst<\/a> and special op veteran, aaron cohen and former assistant deputy of state, joel reuben. As for those reports of an iranian warship in the red sea, just how volatile is the situation there right now . Yeah, look, at the very least this is certainly not trending in the right direction. Youve now got an iranian ship in the waters there, you have a u. S. Presence, you had this back and forth today with the houthi fighters. The First Response<\/a> from u. S. Troops has ended in fatalities with ten of the men onboard those ships dying, and this is something thats been building for the better part of a month now. Youve seen back and forth across the region between u. S. Troops and some of these organizations, and all of them, frankly, backed by iran and now you see iran moving a ship into the red sea. There is, of course, a u. S. Presence there as well. Its been a Growing Point<\/a> of concern not only here in country, in israel, but globally people are looking at this very closely, and it comes as weve continued to see a buildup of strikes back and forth along the lebanon border with hezbollah and the israeli troops there. I can tell you i know that israel is building forces along the border with lebanon, theyre moving in more equipment at this point, and its not a good look at the very least, with a lot of people concerned it could be a new front in this war. Yes, so concerning. Jay gray, thank you so much for that update. Joel, describe what is likely happening inside the u. S. Government as they try to figure out how to respond to this, and how do our saudi allies factor into their decision . Yeah, steven, its great to be with you, and happy new year. Look, within the Biden Administration<\/a> right now clearly the top line of concern, as jay pointed out, is to prevent a regi spillover. But whats happening right n is the houthis are aggressively attacking International Commerce<\/a> and trade lanes and ships that are not attacking anybody. And so this is a real violation of International Law<\/a> and in the United States<\/a> we have a longterm obligation to protect those seaways and to ensure that commerce goes through unfettered. To your question about the gulf countries, they are directly impacted and they, too, have a stake in this. So a lot of consultation right now between the United States<\/a> and our gulf allies to ensure that the Shipping Lanes<\/a> are protected. It impacts the entire region. The houthis, backed by iran, are taking aggressive action that is unprovoked and unjustified and against International Law<\/a>, and the message needs to get to tehran they need to cool it because its only going to increase the attacks we saw over the last 24 hours or so and were going to see an american response to any aggressive actions by the houthis. Many reasons to be concerned, including the economics. Aaron, lets bring you in. Will the u. S. Response, will that deter the houthis, or could it embolden them instead . Well, its yet to be seen. Happy new year, steve. Good to see you. I think what were seeing right now is were seeing iran pawing at the bear. They want to see how the u. S. Is going to respond, they want to get a sense of the tone. How far can we push the United States<\/a> right now . I think on a macro level thats what theyre doing. On the micro picture, what were seeing now is the deployment of drones, suicide drones, very cheap, theyre very accurate. They can change midflight. Thats what a couple of these last attacks weve seen, especially with the ships. What happens if these drones, it allows iran while this might be a proxy, maybe the houthis understand that these are just extensions of iran, of the ayatollah, of the islamic regime and theyre targeting the economics here. They want to show the United States<\/a> that, no matter how big and how giant is muscle is of the u. S. , that these tiny little groups can affect the economy on a global scale. And your guess was right, thats exactly what its going to do. Its going to start to trigger financial repercussions and creating a psychological dent. In this case, its going to happen specifically through economic hitting of those seaways, passageways, so the u. S. Really needs to pull in and start getting focused with counter strikes, but to be careful not to let this spill out too quickly, too aggressively, too soon. Yeah, thats been the fear of so many, the spillover happening. None of this is happening in a vacuum. We know the houthis say they are standing with the palestinians against the Israeli Operations<\/a> going on in gaza. Meanwhile, weve learned the idf is pulling some reservists out of gaza right now. From a special ops perspective, how could that impact the fight Going Forward<\/a> . Well, so the Biden Administration<\/a> made it very clear to netanyahu, to the idf, we dont want to see the Aerial Bombardments<\/a> that happened, which were successful, but theres collateral damage. However, israel has incredibly talented special operations units, the king fisher unit, but they want more activity. So the idf is scaling back the reservists, in hopes to stimulate the economy. Back in israel, get the economy back open and moving. Its been halted for about 80 plus days. The other thing it does, israel is going to keep an eye on the northern border. Hezbollah has a lot more fighters than hamas. What israel is going to do is turn their special operations units, the commander brigade, the unit thats been hitting the tunnels, the eod unit thats been destroying those tunnels, so theyre going to try and focus more on getting barrels inside structures, neutralizing terrorists. It creates a higher level of selectivity, reduces barrels getting on innocent civilians like the unfortunate casualties that happened last week with the surrendering hostages. It wasnt a hostage rescue mission, they just ended up escaping from captors. Its more dangerous for the idf. So theyre really going to focus on a core couple thousand troops from their commando forces, let them continue to do that slow and deliberate clearing. Its brilliant, a lot safer, and its going to take five or six more months. Keep this in mind. The longer it takes for israel to demilitarize the gaza strip, the greater the threat i believe is going to increase to u. S. National security, because were going to see more and more emboldening of them calling for more protests, which could potentially escalate and its going to call on u. S. Law enforcement. The next thing is for americans to get ready for a potential spillover, particularly in the Law Enforcement<\/a> community here. Potential, more potential international spillover. Joel, i wanted to ask you about Secretary Of State<\/a> blinken. Hes soon going to make his fifth trip to israel since the war started, and it comes as the civilian death toll in gaza is getting close to 22,000. What more can the State Department<\/a> do to pressure netanyahu on the issue of these civilian casualties . Yeah, look, steven, i think Secretary Blinken<\/a> is going to bring the message hes been bringing consistently, which is that the United States<\/a> stands with israel in its mission to eliminate hamas threat to israel, the physical threat, the Terrorist Threat<\/a> that it embodies, while also calling on the israelis to do more for civilian protection, as were discussing, and that includes ensuring the provision of humanitarian assistance, that that gets in at a higher level than it has been. And then, b, this big question about the end state, what is going to be there in gaza the day after Major Military<\/a> operations. Does israel really want to reoccupy gaza . I dont think so. I dont think the israeli people want to be controlling gaza. So what kind of Governance Structure<\/a> will there be . Thats where the Secretary Of State<\/a> has a tremendous opportunity to continue to lay out not just for the israeli people, but also for the palestinians and the countries in the middle east and the arab world, talk about the dayafter scenario where the palestinians get governance and they have a horizon that hopefully drains future potential for terrorist recruitment. Thats part of this. And weve learned these lessons the hard way, in afghanistan and iraq. In the United States<\/a> we fought hard wars in these countries and there was a lot of loss and a lot of heartbreak. And part of the Lessons Learned<\/a> are that a political horizon matters, an effective one, that the Military Operation<\/a> only is never good enough. Joel, i also wanted to ask you about the developing news, the Associated Press<\/a> is now reported that israel is rolling back some of the judicial overhauls that started those huge protests that dominated the headlines, of course, before october 7th. Whats your reaction to this rolling back . You know, thats the kind of divisiveness that we saw within israels body of politics, the nation, the people coming out, The Hundreds Of Thousands<\/a> protesting the idea that their democracy would be rolled back. And i think weve seen former leaders as well publicly expressing apology and asking for forgiveness from the israeli people for creating division. And this division had a Security Impact<\/a> because it distracted the Israeli Security<\/a> establishment from many of its objectives in terms of protecting the borders, and a lot of the leadership got in the cross hairs of Prime Minister<\/a> netanyahu. So hopefully this will continue and this will help israel as a country be more solid Going Forward<\/a>. One thing weve seen after october 7th is the unity of the israeli people and thats why hamas deeply miscalculated. Hamas misread the idea there was a civil debate as somehow creating an opportunity to strike. Israel unified, and hopefully this will continue in this way and the democratic tradition of israel will continue as it has always been, where theres vibrant debate, but not where a Supreme Court<\/a> and judicial reforms are pushed through in a narrow margin. It will be interesting to see how this continues to unfold, that Breaking News<\/a> were following, israels Supreme Court<\/a> overturning key parts of the judicial overhaul. Aaron, thank you both for being here today, well continue to follow this. Lets turn to the Breaking News<\/a> we were talking about at the top of the hour. This time out of japan. A Tsunami Advisory<\/a> in effect there after a series of strong earthquakes struck in the sea of japan. The largest of those was a magnitude 7. 6, thats according to japans meteorological agency. Those quakes shook the foundation of peoples homes and businesses, leading to at least one Building Collapse<\/a> in the city of wajima. Joining me now with more, nbcs Meagan Fitzgerald<\/a> and meteorologist bill karins with us. What do we know about the situation and the damage right now . Reporter well, look, given the fact that were talking about a series of earthquakes hitting the region, including the one you mentioned, the 7. 6 magnitude quake, we have not seen significant widespread damage where youre seeing entire areas flattened. But we are seeing, of course, reports of collapsed buildings, roads that have buckled, damage to homes and structures. We know according to officials on the ground, there are several people that are trapped beneath the rubble of homes and buildings that collapsed. Now, at this hour there have been dozens of injuries as well that have been reported, ranging from critical to non lifethreatening. Meanwhile, there is concern for those aftershocks, not only for today, but for the next week ahead, where buildings and structures that have already been compromised could collapse. Meanwhile, we know that the Prime Minister<\/a> has asked for the additional help from the military and for needed supplies to come in by boat, as many of those main access roads have been damaged by the earthquake. Were just seeing some of that intense video of the shaking as well. Bill, what about this Tsunami Advisory<\/a> . What does that mean for people in the area . Yeah, its important for everyone to know that the main earthquake, the big one, was about 2 00 in the morning east coast time, so the threat from that tsunami is long gone. It didnt happen. There was warnings that went out that said it could be up to 6 meters high and that brings visions of the horrific tsunami that hit on the east coast of japan. This does show you where the epicenter was. Now, we still have tsunami advisories, so you say its gone, why do we have advisories . Were still getting aftershocks. And theyre saying for anyone on the coastal sections, if we get a Strong Enough<\/a> aftershock, there could be a minimal tsunami that heads toward the coastal areas. Nothing like the 7. 6. In case youre wondering, tokyo is located here. Tokyo really didnt get much shaking. The little tiny peninsula here in the northern portion, thats where we had the severe damage, thats where roads are cut off, power is out, weve had structures collapse. The earthquake occurred about six miles down underneath the ground. The more shallow an earthquake is, the more dangerous because its closer to the surface. The deeper, the less dangerous it is. This was about six miles. When we see the pictures, its nighttime. Tomorrow morning when we start getting images, this peninsula is where all the problems are. The roads are so bad getting in theyre having to put supplies and stuff on boats, steven. Thats why the rescuers are going to get into this area. They cant drive in with heavy equipment. Its 30 degrees, people, if they are buried in the rubble, thats very cold. Youre worried about hypothermia, and they cant get heavy equipment in. Thats the situation on the ground. Concern for them and for people without power dealing with those temperatures. And, megan, whenever we heard about an earthquake in japan and Tsunami Warnings<\/a>, its hard not to think about the 2011 fukushima disaster. What do we know about the condition of japans Nuclear Power<\/a> plants right now . Reporter right now government Officials Say<\/a> the Nuclear Plants<\/a> in the area have not seen any irregularities, but you can bet that theyre keeping a close eye on those plants because in 2011 there was that massive earthquake, which triggered a tsunami where we saw that huge wave crash into the Fukushima Nuclear<\/a> plant, causing a nuclear meltdown. Of course, thats not the situation thats happening now. Officials do not see any irregularities, but theyre keenly aware of how serious thisization is on many fronts. Im certain they are tracking this closely. Thank you both. And still to come, a challenging question, the issue of whether or not donald trump will be on some states primary ballots. It could come down to the Supreme Court<\/a>. What that decision entails when were back in just 60 seconds. Youre watching msnbc. Next week in d. C. , a federal Appeals Court<\/a> will hear arguments on former president trumps effort to toss out his election interference case. Umps legal team is making the case for broad immunity, arguing that his alleged attempt to overturn the 2020lection was already litigated in congress during his second Impeachment Trial<\/a>. Trump,course, was acquitted there. On saturday, Special Couns<\/a> jack smith pushed back, Writing Ourt Filing<\/a> that, quote, rather than vindicating our constitutional framework, the defendants sweeping Immunity Claim<\/a> threatens to license president s who commit crimes to remain in office. The founders did not intend such a result. So joining us now, msnbc legal analyst Danny Ceballos<\/a> and the msnbc political analyst. Danny, lets start with you. What do you make of trumps argument this was already litigated in congress . There are two major arguments for immunity. The one you mentioned is the weaker one. Its certainly fascinating to legal in other words like me to discuss at starbucks about theoretically whether or not an acquittal in an Impeachment Trial<\/a> acts as a kind of Double Jeopardy<\/a>. Its very creative, because when you look at the language, it appears to say it does say that somebody who is impeached and convicted may be tried criminally. It doesnt say acquitted. So thats really interesting. But the reality is this, impeachment has never been a trial. Its basically a congressional debate. Its probably the greatest disservice weve done to the American Public<\/a> is let them think of impeachment as a trial. Thats all it is. I mean, its Just Congress<\/a> debating something. You can count up the votes before the Impeachment Trial<\/a> is over. Its a congressional debate. Its not a criminal trial to which Double Jeopardy<\/a> attaches. But definitely points to the trump team. Law professors will find it fascinating. Any court that decides it will almost surely strike it down. Its the weaker Immunity Argument<\/a> of the two. Carlos, bringing you in, what could it mean if trump wins this argument, as long shot as it may be, and solidifies a precedent for this type of immunity . Look, its just dangerous for our institutions and it basically somehow starts recognizing that a political process, as danny just outlined, is suddenly a judicial process or a formal trial as we would expect in a federal court. So, again, this is another one of Donald Trumps<\/a> attempts to weaken our institution, to kind of bend or change the rules for his own personal benefit. Obviously, he and his team are doing everything they can to get him out of all of the legal liability hes facing. Danny, on the issue of the ballots, maine and colorado declaring trump ineligible to appear on the ballots. How much pressure is the Supreme Court<\/a> under to make this decision and to make it fast . I think this issue is so much more complicated than even we realize it is now. Lets just take colorado and maine, for example. Thats only two states out of 50. At first blush, they appear to involve similar issues. There was a determination that trump was an insurrectionist and, two, that hes an officer under the 14th amendment. On closer look theyre not that close. In colorado that was decided by a court. For example, this is one example, in maine that was decided administratively by the Secretary Of State<\/a>. The Supreme Court<\/a> may conclude this is whats called a political question, in other words, another branch of the government handles it and not the judicial branch. That would mean, even though you have the same issues, colorado having decided it by a court, does so improperly and maybe maine did it the right way. And, by the way, maine is in its infancy of the process. There hasnt been an appeal to the court yet. All of the other states are in differing stages, michigan their Supreme Court<\/a> just turned down the appeal. Thats presumably over in michigan, maybe not. Now were at three states out of 50. So even if the Supreme Court<\/a> would take this up, it will be fascinating to see how they frame it. Will they say, hey, were going to decide these narrow two issues. The heck with procedural status every else. That doesnt solve anything because there are seven or eight other issues that could leave him off. Depending on their answer, that changes how other states will try to operate in the future. Carlos, i wanted to ask you about next one about chris sununu. He says the attempts to keep trump off the ballot could end up backfiring on all of this in the end. Do you think that is what could happen ultimately, he could appear as the victim in this situation . Well, steven, that is what ends up happening, specifically with republican primary voters. Donald trump is very good at telling republican primary voters the story that hes under siege, that hes a victim, that the left is coming after him, that they want to imprison him unjustifiably, and that has helped him in his primary season. We see that every time he receives one of these legal blows in the judicial system, that his numbers in the republican primary go up. So this is a major challenge, particularly for someone like nikki haley, who chris sununu is backing, trying to break through as the primary season kicks off. Donald trump getting all this attention and being able to portray himself as a victim before republican primary voters makes it a lot tougher for those trying to defeat him in that primary. We know indictments have certainly helped his polling numbers. Danny, i did want to ask you heading into this election year, all of these trials, a packed Court Calendar<\/a> for trump, what are you going to be looking for . 2024 will be the year of the perpetual cliffhanger. There will be trial dates set, other court dates set. They will approach, something will happen and theyll get pushed out. 2024 in theory should be the year of at least four different criminal trump trials. I think its likely maybe one goes to trial, maybe zero go to trial in 2024. Because things happen. I dont know what those things are, but already look at the criminal cases. Things have happened, unanticipated things that have delayed those cases and the trump team is doing everything they can to delay. Look for 2024 to have several days of, oh, today is the day, oh, no, its not. Weve got to wait another few months. More cliffhangers. Thank you both so much. And a battleground iowa, just 14 days until the first in the nation president ial contest. Voters are getting the chance to weigh in on the republican primary. The latest from the Hawkeye State<\/a> next. Youre watching msnbc. Plaque psoriasis for the chance at clear or almost clear skin. Its like the feeling of finding your back. Is back. Or Finding Psoriasis<\/a> cant deny the splendor of these thighs. Oncedaily sotyktu is proven to get more people clearer skin than the leading pill. Dont take if youre allergic to sotyktu; serious reactions can occur. Sotyktu can lower your ability to fight infections including tb. Serious infections, cancers including lymphoma, muscle problems, and changes in certain labs have occurred. Tell your doctor if you have an infection, liver or kidney problems, high triglycerides, or had a vaccine or plan to. Sotyktu is a tyk2 inhibitor. Tyk2 is part of the jak family. Its not known if sotyktu has the same risks as jak inhibitors. Find what Plaque Psoriasis<\/a> has been hiding. Ask your dermatologist about sotyktu for clearer skin. 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Oh, ew i think youve said enough. Why dont we just switch to xfinity like Everyone Else<\/a> . Then you would know what year it was. I know what year it is. Welcome back. The Iowa Caucuses<\/a> are just two weeks away, and the republicans hoping to win the white house practically stormed the state between christmas and new years eve. Former South Carolina<\/a> governor nikki haley, Florida Governor<\/a> ron desantis, and entrepreneur vivek ramaswamy, all spent time hope to go win over voters. Joining me is Deputy Managing Editor<\/a> for politics and senior political reporter and the host of the Election Podcast<\/a> somebody has got to win. Sarah, lets start with you. How are the candidates trying to win over voters in these final days . Yeah, what were seeing, steven, is all of them are taking a slightly different approach in the Hawkeye State<\/a> in order to try to break through in a race thats been dominated by former president donald trump. Vivek ramaswamy has held by far the most events here. Hes held well over 200 events and recently has ramped up to doing as many as ten a day, which is really an astounding pace. Hes not slowing down over these next two weeks. So his campaign will really be testing how much retail politics Still Matters<\/a> in the year 2024. Similarly, Governor Ron Desantis<\/a> of florida has really poured all of his resources and time into iowa as well. Hes completed what is known as the full grassley, which means hes visited all 99 counties in iowa, and kicked off his new years celebration at a Campaign Event<\/a> in iowa, alongside the popular governor, kim reynolds, a big endorsement for him here in the state. He set the expectation and the goal, as well as ramaswamy and trump have, that he wants to win. Nikki haley has taken a different approach. She has focused a lot more on New Hampshire<\/a>. Shes spent a lot more money and resources and time there. Recently shes had a wave of momentum as shes been seen as the Republican Party<\/a>s potential best chance to win in a general election against join. So amidst the momentum, shes been seen more in iowa. She went to university of iowa Womens Basketball<\/a> game this past weekend with her son and shes been showing her face here more in an attempt to really have a strong showing. Shes not said she needs to win, but have a strong showing so she can take that to New Hampshire<\/a> where hes positioned herself in a strong second place. So thats where we stand with the candidates here in iowa. And tellingly, theyre all starting out 2024 campaigning here in the Hawkeye State<\/a> with the exception of nikki haley, who will be in New Hampshire<\/a> tomorrow, not here in iowa. A lot of focus for her on New Hampshire<\/a>. An excellent update from the ground. Thank you so much for that. This frenzy in iowa is usually in full force by now, but how is the trump factor playing here . A question weve had to ask for many years now. The huge lead he has, how will that affect voter enthusiasm and turnout in the caucuses . Well, its impossible to really know, obviously, until you see the results from iowa. In theory, because trump has led by such astronomical amounts in all these polls, including iowa, which is a little more narrow, that could potentially depress voters. They might just say, well, its a foregone conclusion, we shouldnt even bother going. In practice, sometimes it works the opposite way, especially New Hampshire<\/a>, where voters dont like to just go with the flow. Theres a lot of independence streaks there and they dont like the idea of it being preordained. What you see historically in New Hampshire<\/a> is a bit of surprise in the showing. Thats happened most recently on the democratic side, where barack obama came out of iowa in 2008 memorably with the peck expectation he was going to steamroll into New Hampshire<\/a> and Hillary Clinton<\/a> scored what was considered that night a pretty big upset. So theres two types of Sigh Psychology<\/a> for voters heading in. I dont profess to know which is more accurate. Well see soon enough. Picking the future is not easy. Especially these days. The republican candidates are crisscrossing the state and meeting and greeting voters, trying to convince them Donald Trumps<\/a> victory is not necessarily inevitable. How is that working . Its interesting because theyre attacking each other rather than donald trump. A lot of the ads youre seeing from nikki haley and ron desantis, they go after each other. Ron desantis calls her tricky nicky. Nikki haley is mocking the dysfunction of the ron desantis campaign. These ads do not attack the frontrunner, donald trump. I think its become an expectations game and most people believe that trump is inevitable winner of the iowa caucus, and he may win as much as 50 points, which is what most people predict at this point. And the other two, if they can come within 15 points to Single Digits<\/a> of trump, that would be considered a win going into New Hampshire<\/a>, where, like you said, or sam said that New Hampshire<\/a> voters like to sort of turn the results of the iowa caucus on its head and pick their own nominee. If that person has momentum going into New Hampshire<\/a>, even if that momentum is just coming within 15 points of trump, that could, you know, create a real race and, after that, it will be Crystal Clear<\/a> that there are two actual candidates, donald trump and that second person, then we move to South Carolina<\/a>. It could get tighter. You know, trumps ceiling in New Hampshire<\/a> is notably probably lower than iowa, but it seems pretty clear that the Trump Juggernaut<\/a> is really steaming through iowa right now and the race is to be number two. A weird place to be. But just two weeks away, it will be much easier to read the tea leaves, relatively speaking, after the caucus. Sam, on the topic of trump, both nikki haley and ron desantis have said, if elected, they will pardon donald trump. Lets listen to what they had to say. I will pardon trump if he is found guilty. A leader needs to think about whats in the best interest of the country. Whats in the best interest of the country is not to have an 80yearold man sitting in jail that continues to divide our country. Whats in the best interest of the country would be to pardon him so that we can move on as a country and no longer talk about him. Nikki haley said she would pardon trump if he ends up being convicted and she wins the election. Would you commit to the same . Ive already said that long ago. I think weve got to move on as a country. Sam, what do you think of the strategy there . Well, i mean, on the one hand its kind of obvious, right, they dont want to offend trump voters, they havent throughout the course of this campaign tried to offend trump voters. Theyre attacking each other and not trump. It doesnt really make a lot of sense, if you think about it, because youre trying to win over those people, and if youre just saying youre going to pardon the guy, i dont know how that attracts trump voters to your cause. Theyve made the determination theyre going to get dinged if they do it, so theory doing this. On the other hand, it is surreal, i must say, to be, as the campaign is coming to this crescendo, that one of the big flashpoints is would you pardon the frontrunner if hes found guilty of real crimes. We havent been in this type of situation ever. And the fact that this is being hotly debated on the Campaign Trail<\/a> really gets to sort of the uniqueness and weirdness of this race, which is its happening on dual tracks. One is a primary where people are going to vote, and the other is a legal setting where the frontrunner and likely republican nominee is on trial and could be convicted. Its wild. Yeah, wild, one word for it. You mentioned the attack ads that haley and desantis are running against each other, not attacking trump. Theyve also sort of defended his right to appear on the ballots in these states where theres attempts to get him off the ballots. This persistent fear of going after trump, how long do you see this continuing, and is that a viable strategy moving forward after the iowa caucus, after New Hampshire<\/a> . I think if, for some reason, donald trump is not the nominee, these voters are going to need to lock up his base of voters and they are very loyal, as weve seen. Theyre often low propensity voters, theyre going to need trumps endorsement. Theyre going to need a guarantee from trump hes not going to wage his own thirdparty writein candidacy. Trump doesnt really care about the Republican Party<\/a>. So anything they need to create an alliance with trump in some way, and that means winning the trust of his voters and getting them to vote for them and not deciding to sit it out in protest. We already saw that happen basically in georgia when trump told his voters not to come out and vote in the senate race after 2020. So this is something that these candidates are aware of. They cannot they cant go after the beehive. They need to keep these people inside and they need to bring them in and they have to have trumps endorsement if they want to win. And if anything, they really cant make an enemy of him. I cant imagine a situation in which trump is not the nominee, and actually helps another nominee along. It just seems like thats just not his deal. He would probably claim that there was election fraud, honestly, in the republican primary. Sam, what are your thoughts on that . How does it continue to move forward with that fear lurking over these contenders . I like the imagery of a beehive. I think tara nailed it there. Because it is that. Yes, i mean, were getting way down in the rabbit hole, but, yeah, every historical indication is if trump were to lose somehow this primary, he would claim it was rigged. Thats his m. O. , hes done it repeatedly. We know that he did it in the last primary when ted cruz won iowa, and so it is a bad place to be as a party where youre solely dependent on one person to bring out such a huge amount of your voters. And weve seen this in 2022, 2023 and 2021. Without trump on the ballot, republican candidates have really struggled. Theyve really struggled. These are trumpendorsed candidates, like Herschel Walker<\/a> or dr. Oz, and its weird, because the parties have switched. The Republican Party<\/a> is now very dependent on lowpropensity voters who have been drawn in by donald trump. When trump is not there, they dont turn out. This is part of the reason why you see nikki haley and ron desantis saying these things about pardoning trump. They need to keep him within the socalled beehive so they can benefit from having his voters there. I think we have a new favorite metaphor for whats going on right now. Thank you both so much. Protecting the vote. How new laws going into effect today will keep the people who make free and Fair Elections<\/a> possible safer from threats. Stit as clean as with tide. So were back with tide, and the clothes are clean again. Do 3x the laundry and get a tide clean. Its got to be tide. Rsv can severely affect the lungs and lower airways. But im protected with arexvy. Arexvy is a vaccine used to prevent lower Respiratory Disease<\/a> from rsv in people 60 years and older. Rsv can be serious for those over 60, including those with asthma, diabetes, copd, and certain other conditions. But im protected. Arexvy is proven to be over 82 effective in preventing lower Respiratory Disease<\/a> from rsv and over 94 effective in those with these health conditions. Arexvy does not protect everyone and is not for those with severe allergic reactions to its ingredients. Those with weakened Immune Systems<\/a> may have a lower response to the vaccine. The most common side effects are Injection Site<\/a> pain, fatigue, muscle pain, headache, and joint pain. I chose arexvy. Rsv . Make it arexvy. [ tense music ] one aleve works all day so i can keep working my magic. Just one aleve. 12 hours of uninterrupted pain relief. Aleve. Who do you take it for . And for fast topical pain relief, try alevex. Right now get a free footlong at subway. Like the new deli heroes. Buy one footlong in the app, get one free. Its a pretty big deal. Kinda like me. Order in the subway app today. What can i put down as your profession . Thief actress. She means actress. Thief [silence] dice dreams, attack your friends and steal their coins. Play now. Welcome back. With the new year, new state laws are going into effect across the country. Nbc news justice Correspondent Ken Dilanian<\/a> has a look at the new measures that took effect right at midnight. Reporter from the meaningful to the mundane, new laws are taking effect in every state. Here are some of the measures drawing attention as 2024 gets under way. After threats drove away half the states top election officials, nevada took action. Starting january 1st, those who harass, intimidate or harm Election Workers<\/a> performing their duties could face up to four years in prison under a new law that unanimously passed the State Legislature<\/a>. Most people dont realize that 80 of our Election Workers<\/a> are women. Those are our daughters, our wives, our sisters, mothers. Reporter a Campaign Promise<\/a> by Secretary Of State<\/a> aguilar, the law makes nevada one of a handful of states where threats to Election Workers<\/a> are a felony. We cannot run elections without people. They are our Unsung Heroes<\/a> of democracy. Reporter in tennessee, a new law toughens penalties for distracted driving. Those under 18 cited for a second offense could see their license suspended. The measure is named for a local businessman who died in a 2020 accident. If its just one life we save, then my dad would be honored to have it in his name. Reporter california is requiring stores with more than 500 employees to offer gender neutral toy sections. Failure to comply could result in fines. Why would it be that a dinosaur or truck or Periodic Table<\/a> would be in the boys section or glitter or paint in the Girls Section<\/a> . Lets just allow kids to be kids. Youve seen the criticism. One newspaper called it californias latest woke insanity. How do you respond . This bill was inspired by the private sector following that of major retailers, target and so many others, already going in this direction. This is a manufactured controversy in saying that it is potentially a woke government. Reporter in louisiana, the State Legislature<\/a> overrode the governors veto of a bill banning genderaffirming care for transgender minors. The bill prohibits them from prescribing hormone treatments. Critics say it wont survive a court challenge. It is my sincere belief this bill is unconstitutional. I believe the courts will declare that in due course. Reporter pennsylvania toughened penalties for drivers who fail to stop for flashing red lights on school buses and michigan is allowing 16yearolds to preregister to vote. With the president ial election looming in 2024, the Brennan Center<\/a> think tank says at least 14 states have passed measures making it harder to vote, while 23 states have enacted laws making it easier. How these changes will affect the outcome is unclear. Yet to be seen. Ken dilanian, thank you. Well, holiday roads. Millions are making their way home after spending time with loved ones. What can you expect at the airport and on the highways . Thats next. mom thats a bit dramatic. A better plan is verizon. It starts at 25 dollars a line. dad did you say 25 dollars a line . sister and save big on things we love, like netflix and max dad oh, thats awesome mom spaghetti night dinner in 30 dad oh, happy day vo a better plan to save is verizon. It starts at 25 per line guaranteed for 3 years and get both netflix and max for just 10 mo. Only on verizon. Its two things a young man want to be, a cowboy or a gangster. And a gangsters out of style. I got back to my roots. We come from a long line of cowboys. My grandfather, my greatgrandfather, my aunt even rode horses. When i see all of us out here on this ranch i see how far our legacy can go. Now on sale at ancestry. [deep exhale] [trumpet music plays] 579 breaths to show em your stuff. Every breath matters. Dont let rsv take your breath away. Protect yourself from rsv. With abrysvo, pfizers rsv vaccine. Abrysvo is a vaccine for the prevention of lower Respiratory Disease<\/a> from rsv in people 60 years and older. Rsv can be serious if you are 60 or older. Having asthma, copd, diabetes, or Heart Disease<\/a> puts you at even higher risk. Abrysvo is not for everyone and may not protect all who receive the vaccine. Dont get abrysvo if youve had a severe allergic reaction to its ingredients. People with a weakened Immune System<\/a> may have a decreased response to abrysvo. The most common side effects are tiredness, headache, pain at the Injection Site<\/a>, and muscle pain. Ask your pharmacist or doctor about pfizers rsv vaccine, abrysvo. Visit these retailers or find other retailers near you at abrysvo. Com. [deep breath] today millions of americans are expected to hit the roads to celebrate new years day or head home from all of those parties. Aaa expected more than 115 Million People<\/a> to travel 50 miles or more during this holiday season. That would make it the second highest since they started keeping track back in 2000. Joining us is nbcs Antonia Hylton<\/a> from Laguardia Airport<\/a> in new york city. Antonia, how are things looking right now . Reporter stephen, they are still looking pretty good here, not just laguardia but all around the country. There have been only a bit more than a dozen cancellations in the u. S. And a bit more than a thousand delays. When you put that in perspective and remember what was happening this time last year, were doing pretty well. Millions of americans a year ago were sleeping in airports like this one, trying desperately to get a new flight after a ton of cancellations. Thats not the scene here today. People have been easily going through, checking their bag, getting through security. Ive been talking to families coming three, four hours in advance in fear of what we saw last year. Theyre all in a great mood. Oh, lets not talk about it. It was terrible. And also i think the airlines are more staffed, too. They have more staff on schedule. So now it makes it easier to navigate. Like over here, you have three or four American Airlines<\/a> workers in the area to navigate people through. It makes it easier, too. Reporter experts have warned, though, if youre planning to drive to your destination today, that you may still see some delays out on the roads, up to 20 delays in the time of your arrival. So plan ahead. Try to leave after 7 00 p. M. O if you havent taken off yet. That will be your best bet to get there smoothly, to avoid any pileups or delays. Make sure you strategize. Know where your pit stops are, where the snacks and the food are, especially if youre traveling with little ones. Thats the best way to make it home as we begin the new year. Snacks, youre speaking my language. Antonia hylton, thank you so much. Scary situations. A major earthquake off the west coast of japan sending people scrambling for safety as Tsunami Warnings<\/a> popped up. Well get the latest from the region coming up next. Youre watching msnbc. Youre watching msnbc. I couldn. I want to be there for this one. I cant if im sick. Pneumococcal pneumonia is a potentially serious bacterial lung disease. You may be at risk if youre 19 to 64 with certain chronic conditions. Or if youre 65 or older. Dont pause a moment longer. Ask your doctor or pharmacist about getting vaccinated against Pneumococcal Pneumonia<\/a> today. Torstein Hagen<\/a> in my simple world, there are only three things that matter in human beings. Nated first, they have to be kind. Kind. Second, they have to be honest. And third, they have to be hardworking. Its very simple. Wherever you are in the world, when you come to a different culture, you meet people of very different backgrounds, but you find out that they have the same ambitions and the same fears just like yourself. Im so sure that travel is good for the world. Its really the best to engage with the locals and the destination. And i think travel helps broaden the human mind and makes us kinder. And thats fantastically valuable. Right now get a free footlong at subway. Like the new deli heroes. Buy one footlong in the app, get one free. Its a pretty big deal. Kinda like me. 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