Heres your breakfast sweetheart. Its the what they call the Midterm Elections and you can cut the indifference with a knife. Midterm election day. Or as people under 65 call it, why are all those old people lined up at the Elementary School. Candidates have said all that can be said. And walked back all that they can regret having said. Very important, dont forget to head down to your local polling place and cancel out your dads vote. Very important. Well, the music and graphics make it official. Its election day. I just had some chills. Thats big. Good morning, everybody. Oh, my gosh. Welcome to morning joe. With us onset, John Heilemann,
al hunt. Is this big. 18 miles away from us. Hes in another zip code, but not another area code. Hello, al. In washington, we have political analyst eugene robins robinson. Along with willie, joe and me. Just before we get to the polls, and i say this real quick, if you could tell us real quick i cant do anything real quick. What is your gut . This is a race, this is a Midterm Election like few others. Sort of like 1998. Al will remember 1998 when republicans were supposed to have this huge night. And it just didnt happen. Our majority in the house went down to four seats. But i dont want to be overly pessimistic about my party. Because tonight may be a good night for the Republican Party. But in sports terms, this really is like the yankees being up three games to nothing on the red sox in 2004. If you dont win tonight, i mean just game over. Because look first of all, its a mid year election. And mid year elections, off year elections, voters are whiter, older, more republican. So the republicans have that at their back. You add on top of that the fact that this is being fought in a red state america, tonight were going to hear what red state america thinks of the past two years. And just look in kansas, for instance, this is a race too is too close to call. Mitt romney worn by more than 22 percentage points. Weve been talking about kentucky, arkansas. Mitt romney won those by over 20 points each. We think those are safely in the republican side now, but it took a long tilg time 37. Alaska is still up for grabs. Romney point by 17 points. Georgia, romney won by 8 points. That is going to a runoff. Romney even won north carolina. Thats still up for grabs. There is a lot at stake for the Republican Party tonight. And again, republicans have a lot of reasons to be happy about f. It they win tonight and win control of the senate, but ill tell you what, and you can talk to reince priebus, a lot of republicans, a lost night would be devastating to the part i. Lets take a look at where we are right now. The white house by the way is bullish on the midterms predicting democrats will hold on to the senate even if plenty of other forecasts are saying otherwise. Three major models give republicans high odds of taking over. The Washington Post election lab puts it at 96 . Mitt romney spent the final day of the cycle campaigning with dan sullivan in alaska, who is
in a statistical tie with mark begich. Other races appear to be tightening since its last poll less than a week ago. Quinnipiac had colorado democrat mark udall closing the gap with cory gardner. And in iowa, bruce braley has pulled neck and neck with joni ernst. Al hunt, three states, in iowa, in New Hampshire, in colorado. Tightening in all three states. Two favoring democrats, one favoring republicans. For people that can see into a crystal ball and project that there a 96 chance that the republicans are going to like take over the senate, good for them. I mean the quinnipiac poll, in iowa, where its a dead heat suggests that maybe that Des Moines Register poll is sort of
an outlier. I would defend the des moines ron register pollster because she has a great track record. But thats margin of error. Were not sure exactly where they are. And what it really will probably come down to tonight to state the obvious is who shows up. But who has the ground game, who can deliver, where the passion, where the last minute, and if there is any momentum on either side last minute. I think there are at least seven or eight states totally up for grabs. And lets talk about governors records. Florida is my home state, but i live in connecticut. Both of those races, right, youve got two governors races where nobody knows which way it will break. Thats how crazy this year is. And the bluest of states, in what is traditionally a red state, its up for grabs. And wisconsin you can throw into the mix, too, where scott walker is fighting for his life. What happens tonight in wisconsin could have a big impact on national politics. Hes thinking about running for something larger perhaps. If he loses tonight, that goes by the wayside. The senate, i guess you have three locks. South dakota, montana, west virginia. So the remaining states that you pointed out there, republicans have to find three more basically. And you could probably put John Heilemann, kentucky, and arkansas as two of those three. Although kentucky is a hold. Thats right. Or colorado looking good, too. Colorado looks very close. I think the only state that right now i think people are pretty confident about that republicans in addition to those three will pick up is arkansas. Thats the one where republicans and democrats privately acknowledge mark pryor is probably gone. But the rest of the states are within the margin of error. Louisiana race almost certain to go into overtime. Georgia race almost certain to go into overtime. And those probabilily favor republicans in a runoff. But just probably. I think the two states that a lot of people will be looking at tonight, iowa and colorado. That is one thing republicans look at and say here are two states that romney lost where were fighting and were looking pretty good. Polls a week ago would have suggested these are republican states. Now even those two states have tightened up. And in colorado, i think mark udall is probably feeling not bad today because thats a state where democrats really do have a high tech very experienced very good ground game. They will get their people out in colorado. And republicans had barry match that or they will lose colorado if this race is that type. Match that or they will lose colorado if this race is that type. Iowa, it surprise me thats neck and neck. But most of these races have been within the margin of error throughout with an asterisk because they have generally given republicans optimism. Generally have the republican a little bit ahead. Thats got to mean something. So its still weighted in favor of the republicans, but it will be a long night. It is. A win for joni ernst by the way could help hand control of the senate to Mitch Mcconnell, but last night she wasnt ready to offer her support for him. Support mcconnell . Im not there yet. I have to win an election. See, now, shes not doing that. Shes not going to just making sure she wins . Seriously. If youre running in any of the 50 states, would you say, yeah, boy, Mitch Mcconnell, im with him. No. And if im a democrat, would i go yeah, boy, harry reid, hes my man . No. Willie, that just wouldnt happen. You also, though, have the question of what will happen over the next couple of years, what would a senate look like if mech mcc Mitch Mcconnell were in charge of it. You already have ted cruz saying hell blow things up and well
have investigations and blah, blah, blah. The National Media is picking up on that. I have a feeling, though, ted cruz is still an outsider in his own party in the senate at least. He may be. And i think that is a big question to talk about today. Obviously well be immersed in these polls and what happens u mean for the country if the senate does go republican. Does anything meaningful happen mean for the country if the senate does go republican. Does anything meaningful happen. Do things change inside washington. There may be more investigations and things like that, but does the government actually change based on what happens tonight. Well, first of all, no matter you how well republicans do, they will not the have a filibuster proof majority in the senate. Second thing is, this goes to what joe is talking about, what is Mitch Mcconnells attitude coming out of this. Hes saying the opposite of what ted cruz is saying. He says well break the gridlock and start passing bills and put them on the president s desk. So is is that really true. Can they actually pass those bills. On the budget, probably likely that he could because the Republican House would be likely to want to go along and try to put those bills on the president s desk. And the other question is but youre talking about putting bills on the president s desk, you still have to get 60 out of it. The critical question is not just i agree with john that its mitch mccon elgs attitude, its also Barack Obamas attitude. Does he want to say all right, you stuck to me, two year, im going to fight you every step of the way, or issues like immigration, koorCorporate Tax reform, can he compromise. I think mcconnell and boehner would like to make some deal as. I think republicans understand John Heilemann that this is a warmup for 2016. They have lost five out of the last six president ial elections in the popular vote. Demographics havent been breaking their way. People want things done. And that is on both sides. If you think about does barack obama want to spend the last two years of his administration getting nothing done. He has an incentive to get things done. And because what you just said, i think those more Establishment Republicans al is talking about like boehner and mcconnell, they must see that two years of doing nothing, doing what ted cruz wants does not help the partys prospects in the 2016 president ial election. I can only judge by mika, the best feedback is the feedback that i get. Before the Government Shutdown, there were establishment republican, there were tea party republicans. Right. Im going to say certainly in like the venom that i had prply coming out of my twitter feed and venom. 2010, 2011, from, quote, tea party republicans. Its dissipated. I agree with that. I just cant see it anymore. We go out what are you smiling about . The only venom is your twitter feed is from me. It comes from the people on the far, far, far left. But not the about me. Republicans understand this is Serious Business. They saw what the Government Shutdown did. As they move forward, they know they have to get things done. If they dont, they will lose 6 six of the last seven president ial laekpresident election shal elections in the popular vote. I couldnt give them that much credit for correcting here. I think its just circumstance. Maybe they learn from it. But look at the people. How many people tonight, how Many Republicans tonight, are going to be defined as the, quote, rape candidates. Thundershower. How Many Republican candidates have had to go on the air and say i am not a witch. To the best of my knowledge, no republican male with a large prostate is trying to redefine
rape in the 2014 election cycle. Not this year. I think maybe they learned their lessons. No this yet will year. And that has been remarkable success this keeping lunatics from ballot. But i dont see the party going we want to correct from that. Look at joni ernst. I share mikas reserve on this. Lets see what happens in the house. I agree, joe, that the lanlgic logic is republicans want to get something done. The question is can you get anything through the house. On these issues where there is lots of room for compromise. You can tackle immigration, you can do it piece meal like the house says it wants to do. You can get it through the senate which has already passed comprehensive immigration, and you can come up with something that president obama would sign or a series of bills that he would sign. You could do that. But will the house be willing to
go along. And im not at all sure it would. You want to see the difference between republicans this year and two years ago and four years ago is th . Look at this. Tom cotton. Hes a conservative. We all like him. Joni ernst, weve talked to her. Weve been in contact with her. We like her. Scott brown, you know, i dont know what state hes from, he is a great scott brown is a great candidate that have fielded really good main street republicans with very good conservative values. Joni ernst will probably win, but shes also said she wants to impeach barack obama. Which joni ernst whether she up in washington . I agree with your analysis, but
its the easiest place in the world to toss hand grenades. Ted cruz will not be alone. Let me tell you something. There are a lot of people even close to ted cruz, and ive talked to ted and i like ted. I really do. Ted, though, is an eisland unto himself shutdown. And ted is running for president. Joni ernsting is going to washington, d. C. And say i want for snuggle up to Mitch Mcconnell any more than shes going to ted cruz. There is going to be a happy medium thin there and i think ty will find their way. I disagree that ted cruz is going to have a lot of new freshmen flocking to him saying lets do the shutdown thing again. Lets do the governors she pulls me back. You cant engage right now because were going to break
soon. Dont do that. Cumbents who are really sweating. Im starting to sweat. A poll shows Dannel Malloy in a statistical tie with republican tom foley. Charlie crist up just one point on rick scott. And colorado is also too close to call, but democratic Governor John Hickenlooper has been trailitrai trailitrai trailing bob beauprez. He acknowledged, quote, were a little behind. Well have a lot more on that coming up. That is an example of a state and of course western mississippi will guns are making a big difference in that race. Yeah, no doubt in that race. Hickenlooper, all the governors races, they make their own wichwind and weather. But colorado is fascinating. Republicans ended up taking
control of both the governor ship and senate race there. Colorado, the state that barack obama in 2008 and 2012 seemed to be moving in to the blue column, its already a huge swing state, but it would look very promising for republicans if they took both of those races. And the senate race how close is the new york race going to be . Andrew cuomo. Not that close. 20 points . Less than that. Do you know why its less than that . Gun legislation. Upstate new york. That guy was sending 65 , 68 . And upstate. So weve talked a lot about guns over the past couple years. The only races that guns are really having an impact right now are in colorado. Can we think of any others . How about connecticut. I think actually its helping Dannel Malloy. In that case, Gun Legislation obviously newtown in connecticut, that is helping Dannel Malloy. But, yeah, its dangerous for a
reason. And not just because of the big bad nra in washington, d. C. There are a lot of voters out there, democratic voters. Still ahead on morning joe, independent u. S. Senate john was looking at me again. You are impossible. Its like a child. Its time to bring it in for a landing. Willie, im uncomfortable. James clyburn, greg orman willie is growing his weird again. Its been a long time willie. You can do a handle bar mustache . Please dont do it. If i could do ram lleigh fingers, i would do it today. I cant believe this. You guy, Haley Barbour and martin short will be here. We love mar ten short. I love him. Cant do that swimming bit together . Yes. That was Haley Barbour. Plus why jay leno is poised
for another tonight show comeback . What . Well explain. And scientists have identified what is the catchiest song in british history. Well reveal the tune that can be recognized in just over two seconds. And well poll gaze forgapologi it stuck in your head for the rest of the day. Music. The getaway vehicle for all the confidence you need. Td ameritrade. You got this. vo solver of the slice. Pro. Teacher of the unteachable. You lower handicaps. And raise hopes. And you. Rent from national. Because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. And go. You can even take a fullsize or above, and still pay the midsize price. pro nice drive. vo well played, business pro. Well played. Go national. Go like a pro. For most people, earning cash back ends here, at the purchase. But theres a new card in town. Introducing the citi® double cash card. It lets you earn cash back when you buy and again as you pay. Thats cash back twice. Its cash back with a side of cash back. The citi double cash card. The only card that lets you earn cash back twice on every purchase with 1 when you buy and 1 as you pay. With two ways to earn, it makes a lot of other cards seem onesided. Time toe take a look at what are you looking at . What the heck is that . What is that . I dont know. But ill take a look at the dallas morning news. Who is that . Four arab nations may soon team up to battle islamic extremists in the middle east. Egypt is holding talks with saw saudi arabia kuwait about the fact. It would not be a wlilink to th u. S. Coalition. And the u. S. Is considering new strikes on nusra. Department of justice is leading a criminal investigation into the Foreign Exchange trading of jpmorgan chase. The bank says its cooperating with the investigation and that there is no as sur rans it will result in settlements. The company also raised its loss estimates for Legal Proceedings from 4. 6 billion now to 5. 9 billion. And lets go to the New York Times. Tom ma sgchlt liozzi along with his brother, ray, became famous as click and crack on the npr show car talk. He died monday at his home. The show focused on auto repair but because also an excuse for brotherly banter. At its peak, car talk reached more than 4 million listeners a week. Tom was 77 yea