Two events in North Carolina. Lit beth warren campaigns in las vegas. Bernie sanders holds an event in minneapolis. A lot going on. Thats going to do it for us on this tuesday. Im betty this tuesday. Morning joe starts right now. The unfairness of the tax laws is unbelievable, and its something i have been talking about for a long time despite being a beneficiariy of the laws, and i am working for you and not for trump. Good morning. Its tuesday, october 4th. Welcome to morning joe. With us on set, we have veteran columnist, Mike Barnicle and mark halperin, and jon meacham, and in washington, msnbc political analyst eugene
robinson. Joe, we have been waiting to see if that debate had any affect on donald trump and Hillary Clinton, and this morning we have got the numbers. And not just i dont think its the debate so much as what happened after the debate, the man had what some call the worst week in president ial history and you look at the rambling second half of the performance and the fat shaming and all the other things that happened that week and then makes fun of Hillary Clinton, her pneumonia, and it really it has been a really bad week for him, so you would expect a massive swing in hillarys direction. Lets look at the states, and now clinton has opened up a fivepoint lead, 46 to 41. Clinton has a fourpoint lead in pennsylvania, and gary johnson falling four points there. In ohio, trump maintains a fivepoint lead, with both trump and clinton up since the last poll, and gary johnson down eight. And johnson down eight points in North Carolina with clinton and trump both rising again, and clinton leads there, 46 to 43 inside the margin of error, and a bloomberg poll shows clinton leading by just 1 , and while the trend lines had shown trump closing the gap in colorado, a new poll has clinton up 11 points there. Mark halperin, just doesnt look like the sort of lead and the sort of swing you would expect, and donald trump still ahead by five points in ohio, and he was up six points from the last time the poll was ta n
taken, and pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton only up by four points, only by four points, and she is campaigning there twice today, and not a good sign for a democrat in october. By this point, republicans are usually giving up the ghost there. And donald trump went up four points there, up five or six points in ohio, and what do you make of these polls . Well, the floor did not collapse on trump but she benefited from the last week, not just from the debate but the aftermath, and mika pointed out Gary Johnsons decline as voters focus on the reality of who the next president is going to be, and trump entered the debate with momentum and virtually caught up and he now a week later is further behind, but the floor has not collapsed on him and if he has a good week, a good second debate, he can get right back in it, but theElectoral College path these polls show makes it difficult for him to feel confident. Willie, what does trump everybody was so concerned thinking this is what i was worried about. This is not significant. Well, he had a rambling second half of the debate, and you look after that, and again, the body shaming and calling somebody fat, Miss Universe fat for weighing 150 and 160 pounds, and attacking her character and wining about the microphone and not paying taxes in 15 years, mocking Hillary Clinton for passing out, and then just as a throw away line, accusing her of adulte adultery, and the saturday night speech may have been the low point in all of Donald Trumpsspeeches, and hes up four in pennsylvania and up five in ohio, and up five of a gain in North Carolina. This is not a man who is collapsing in the polls. Far from it. There are not that many people who have not made up their minds, and if you love donald trump, you really love donald trump, and it goes back to the thing if i walk into fifth avenue and i shoot somebody i am starting to previous that. If you look at the reaction to the tax stories about the 18 years he may not have paid taxes, and he says and his followers say, yeah, because i am a smart businessman. I dont think theres that much wiggle room in the middle anymore. I want to clarify, in the ohio poll, can you put that poll up and the pennsylvania poll right after that, and i said he
was up five, and what i meant was he has gained four or five points in the polls, ahead in ohio, and behind if pennsylvania, and we will show you what i mean. In ohio, donald trump up by five points, but he has gained six points just over the past couple of weeks. You go over to pennsylvania, and hes down, and only down by four points, and pretty remarkable in october, especially considering what donald trump has been saying, and hes up two. This does not look like a man who is paying any price for what has just been in a bismol week in american politics, which suggests what i was saying yesterday, donald trump just may be voters default position in 2016. On the tax issue, which we will get to now, and you mentioned it, its a media narrative as well as the Clinton Campaign is getting this one
wrong. Nearly three quarters of americans want to see trumps tax returns and he gave his First Republic response from the report to the New York Times, and while he still has not confirmed nor denied the claim, trump did defend using what he calls aquote, unfair tax syst. I understand the tax laws better than almost anyone, which is why i am one that can truly fix them, i understand and i get it, and that is what i commit to do. We want fairness. We want money brought in, and we want money to be spent when it goes out, because they spent our tax dollars so unfairly and unwisely, remember that. As a businessman and real estate developer, i have legally used the tax laws to my benefit and to the benefit of my company, my
investors, and my employees. Honestly, i have brilliant ly used those laws, and i often said on the campaign trail that i have a tpau tkurbairy responsibility to pay no more tax than is legally required, or, to put it another way, to pay as little tax as legally possible. If you remember the early 90s, other than 1928, there was nothing even close. The conditions facing Real Estate Developments in the early 90 period was almost as bad as the Great Depression in 1929, and the Great Recession of 2008. Many business people, including competitors and friends were not
able to survive, and companies and jobs and opportunities were lost and lives were destroyed as tens of thousands of people were put out of work. These tough times were when i performed my very best. The economy and banks were collapsing and the government was a mess, but i enjoyed waking up every day to go to battle, and they had an expression, surviv until 95 and you will be okay, and thats what i did, i won and kept winning, until this day i kept on winning. What do you make of his argument that i followed the law, i paid as few taxes as i should have paid, and i was brilliant for doing it that way . Not going to work. This is a slow boiling stew. We can talk about all the polls in different states. Donald trump is locked in between 42 and 45 of the vote,
and they are going nowhere. Change is the biggest winner this year. Its people trying to figure out what am i going to do here . I want change but im looking at donald trump. Who is over the past three or four days as you pointed out, having a slow motion nervous break down in public . Hes ahead in ohio by five points, the state of romney lost, and hes ahead in iowa, and competitive in pennsylvania, and this is after this weeks polls. Hes tied in you show me his Electoral College to victory. Do we see hillary at 50 anywhere . No, but we see her at 47. As gary johnson goes down she looks to benefit. Jean robinson, bill clinton
got elected with 43 of the vote . Yeah, and look, step back for a minute. A few weeks ago, this race did look essentially tied. You called it a coin flip and it looked like a coin flip. It looks a lot less like a coin flip now because Hillary Clinton is clearly ahead in the National Polls because of a horrific week by donald trump, and people just like after the cons, this is my point, trump has a horrible week, people move away and they always seem to find their way back to trump. We will see if they find their way back to trump this day. I think the two important things from this awful week from trump, number one, i think the debate performance was actually important, and i dont discount that as a reason for that slide. I think there was a very clear contrast in that debate, and i think people saw him dissolve into incoherence toward the end of the debate, and i frankly
dont have a lot of reason to think the second debate is going to be much different. Maybe, obviously i could be proved wrong, but doesnt seem to be a good setting for him, and no teleprompter and its a town hall and he has not proved to be good at that and i would be surprised if it were a radically better debate performance and it could be more of the same. It doesnt matter, though. We are talking about a guy, again, follow what he has done over the past five or six, seven days. He should not be ahead in ohio. He shouldnt be within four points in pennsylvania. He shouldnt be up comfortably in iowa. He shouldnt be as well as he is doing. But he is, gene, because theres something that makes voters move to this guy. I think what we just ran, the sound bite we just ran. Its not him, its her. He has not collapsed. His support has not collapsed, but his support is not growing in the way or to the point that it needs to grow for him to win the election, but as mark said, he has to hope, or he probably will go into election day having to hope that, you know, that 45 of really 47, that there are trump voters out there that is for some reason, you know wont admit yeah, not registering. Mike barnicle just said something that i am hearing more and more, you know, we are all focusing on donald trump, and its not about donald trump, its about Hillary Clinton, a woman incapable of finish the sale. I did not see her yesterday, but i heard from several democratic influences yesterday that saw her and here we are in october saying her performance looked like a High School Debaters performance, that she was
horrific. I have not seen the clip, so please dont throw i will play it for you, but go ahead. I heard she is not Getting Better but worse. Is this more about Hillary Clinton and what people dont want to vote for than donald trump . I agree with mike. I think this is a referendum on her, if it were a referendum on him we would not be talking about it. Right. Right . And the analogies we are playing with, carter and reagan, and are we waiting for a debate to see whether hes stable, and i think in a weird way this is entirely about her, and whether people ultimately are going to be comfortable with having her in their living rooms and in their lives with four to eight years. If it were about him, i think it would have been over a long time ago . Hillary clinton seized on the new york time story accusing her
rival of being the quote, poster boy for the same rigged system he is reeling against. He apparently lost 1 billion on bad investments and failing casinos. Ask yourself this, who loses money on casinos . Really. Some of his supporters said, it just shows hes a genius that he didnt pay any taxes, and what kind of genius loses a billion in the first place . I noticed a confidence here that i dont think should be there among the campaign, sorry. I mean, you think about this tax thing and were laws broken and did the New York Times find any laws were broken . No. He talks about brilliantly
queuesi using that system, and she could have had that same reaction with her speech money, and she hides it, and donald trump is comfortable he followed the law and made a lot of money and she also followed the law and made a lot of money and its okay to look at that speech money and somehow we let it go because shes her campaign keeps it under its the same thing and thats what people see, and people see somebody being honest about it and somebody kind of like, not mentioning it and still doing it. What is the difference . Does anybody want to explain to me, because i think voters like what they saw from donald trump and i am worried about it . An example when you tried to overthr
overthrow gingrich, and army tried to deny it and tom delay got in front of us and apologized and he said it was a mistake, and it was the end of dick armys political career, and tom delay gained more power because people that hated him his entire time in washington went up and said thanks for telling us the truth, and here we have donald trump, and i have no idea how he survived the republican primary by giving Hillary Clinton money, and he said, hey, i am in business, and i i followed stupid washington laws. I guess in 2016, people are like, this is this is going to work if people are not careful. This tax thing, sorry, please, find me one person that pays more taxes than they have to pay. You cant do it. So everybody that is acting so
shocked that he did what he was legally entitled to do is a freaking hypocrite, and thats why Warren Buffett goes, oh, rich people need to pay more money, so pay more money, Warren Buffett. The lead out there is that this guy, its easier to lose a billion and survive than it is own a 275,000 split cape and lose the house in i dont think they are thinking that. I have to tell you. I hope you are right. I hope you are right. But i think you are wrong. What we said yesterday on the show was dont be mad at barack obama for only paying 19 they lived in the house for the last two decades. Dont be mad at donald trump for not paying taxes legally for 15 years, be angry at a system
broken and corrupt and i do believe as Warren Buffett said, if you are a billionaire, you should have a minimum tax of 30 , and your secretary is paying 18 , and i dont think its going to resonate with people in middle america. And to use Donald Trumps favorite phrase, the rules are rigged. I you degree. Its safe to say i agree. People look at this and say its a clown who didnt know how i just dont think they are thinking that. What people look at is that guy knows how to gain the system, and if there were somebody other than Hillary Clinton who is more in the pocket of wall street, and who is more and wont acknowledge it. Hillary clinton dont do this. Let me finish one sentence
and i will be quiet for the next three hours. Hillary clinton is more in the pocket of wall street than anybody else that has run for president for years, so please, anybody that is looking at donald trump and going, oh, hes so horrible and corrupt, we need to elect Hillary Clinton because shes going to fix the system . No, its not going to happen. Where do they go . I am worried. She made that speech in ohio yesterday, and Donald Trumps leads jumping from five to 15 points. Up against the back of what we just talked about, the Miss Universe. Hes a feeling to them. Hes raging against this government machine, and people who like donald trump like the way he responded to that tax leak. I realize its hard to do, but has anybody taken a look at Donald Trumps big tax plan i agree with you, mike. Did he address anything i agree with you. I am just watching these two candidates, and theres one that keeps kind of doing this thing that penetrates the people are hearing, they feel, the truth, from donald trump. And that is on second clinton that she has not told us really where she wants to go or take us. I think the reaction to the New York Times story on Donald Trumps part was brilliant, and he didnt think twice about it and he just went there, and shes hiding the email stuff and hiding, and people are not feeling a complete connection with her and it didnt help to get high and mighty, and get off your high horse against the tax
thing unless laws were broken, its not an issue, you cancel each other out. I couldnt believe watching the tv yesterday. I think you guys are over thinking this. I went to the barbershop yesterday, and what were people talking about . They were talking about trump not paying taxes. Thats the one thing from the week that stuck at the barbershop was rich guy, not paying taxes, i got to pay taxes, what is this . I hope you are right. And i just i am sorry, but i think i think theres some over thinking here. I dont think it was a brilliant response to say, yes, i brilliantly maneuvered. Yeah, everybody wants to follow the law but step back for a minute, i am worth 10 billion, and i am the most brilliant businessman in the world, and,
oh, yeah, i dont pay taxes. Thats a problem. Jon meacham, lets talk about what willie said, ohio, was it . Donald trump up 19 Percentage Points over the month in ohio among independents. There was a great dana carvey skit in 1992 after pat buchanan got 40 of the vote in new hampshire, and dana carvey says i got your message, i got your message, youre pissed, and thats the message, and i think details do matter. If trump were so brilliant at taxes why did the New York Times have to bring out his brilliance, hes not known for hiding his light under a bushel,
and how many undecided voters can there be at this point . We are talking about ten people in pennsylvania . Its going to be an emotional election and not a rational one, and if it were a rational one, secretary clinton would be way up, it seems to me. Still ahead on morning joe, the contore shaw northwest battle. She got tricked up trying to answer this question, is trump a role model . And first, bill karins with a check on