That it would be a little fast and we both got we had some mishaps with altitude and cold and it was incredibly challenging and im so glad i did it but im so glad to be back. I thank katty kay and willie geist for stepping up with me and letting me have that time with my daughter. And you were just you were fine. You just are smoking a cigar and hanging out. You were worried. I wasnt doing well. She had the group had a Satellite Phone and there was going to be a checkin every day because it is it is its not it can be dangerous. The most dangerous thing that it was a little dangerous. Youll ever do. Yeah. She was supposed to call in every day for 30 seconds and say, were here. Were doing fine. Were moving forward tomorrow. But the phones froze up. It was unusually cold and i guess cell reception is not always great from arctic zones. So yeah, a little joe was a little mad. I was nervous. I was not mad, i was very nervous. Ill post pictures later. Kind of like the moon landing. It was crazy. We went photographic evidence because a lot of people arent going to be sure that you didnt do this on a sound stage in burbank. So lets get photographic evidence later this week. It was an incredible trip. But congratulations to you and your daughter. What an extraordinary thing and just for people that know, you know, i was reading up while she was radio silent for three days and do this in eight or nine days. Even if youre an experienced hiker go eight or nine days, they went 5 1 2 days. They were over there and warned. Listen, you cant do this in 5 1 2 days, and mika is no, i just want to go up there and get it done and come back. Yeah. That was rough. Good to be back. Im glad youre back. It was wonderful. Mrs. Scarborough, congratulations. Thank you. Lets get to the news. We begin with a key finding from the latest nbc news wall street journal when asked about the reelection, a combined 40 of registered voters say theyll definitely or probably vote for him. While a combined 52 said they would definitely or probably vote for the democratic candidate. Those numbers are virtually unchanged from about nine months ago. The president did manage to harden support among his pace with a six point increase in the percentage of voters who say theyll definitely vote for him now at 29 . Joe . So Steve Kornacki, of course, back in the old days which wasnt so long ago if you were a candidate and your reelect was below 50 , it was time to really start worrying for president s obviously its its become a much tougher road to hoe even though the last three have been reelected. My question, how worried should trump and his team be with this 40 reelect number and secondly, especially because its much lower in the states that matter the most. But secondly, how is barack obama faring at this same time . I mean he had a pretty rough stretch in 2011, did he not . Yeah. Remember at about this time in 2011 you had the failure for barack obama of that supposed grand bargain with john boehner with republicans in congress, the debt ceiling showdown. So the summer of 2011 was kind of a low point for Barack Obamas presidency looking ahead to his reelection. I was looking though at our august 2011 nbc news wall street journal poll sizing up obama at that point of his presidency versus mitt romney who ended up being of course the republican nominee in 2012 and obama was a point up in our poll at that point. 4746 over mitt romney. I think one of the differences, obama obviously as i say it was a rough stretch in 2011. He had a middling approval lating for that rating for that second part of the first term and one of the differences when you look at his polling profile versus Donald Trumps, the number who say they wont vote for trump, who disapprove of trump consistently. You have to go back a long ways in our polling now to find a less than a majority saying they dont disapprove of donald trump, that high disapproval number for donald trump is different. As you say, we dont have a head to head here in ours, but we have fox news polling over the last couple of days that shows donald trump losing double digits to prospective democratic opponents in 2020. The other thing i would point out again, i mentioned the fox news poll, the other big difference that jumps out me is this. The reason when you strip Everything Else away, i think that donald trump was able to get himself elected in 2016 was on election day you took a certain type of voter. A voter who said i have a negative view of donald trump. And i have a negative view of Hillary Clinton. I dont like both of the candidates. Those voters broke decisively for donald trump. The margin in the exit poll was 47 for trump and 30 for clinton. They didnt like either but they broke for trump. In the new fox news poll they look at voters who say they dont like trump and they dont like biden. And right now in this fox news poll they are breaking for biden by a 33 point margin. Thats the biggest difference i have seen in polling right now. That is a huge difference and jon meacham, i really think historically if historians can look back at the Donald Trump Campaign and presidency with a bit of detachment its very hard right now, but they may look back just like they looked back at 1980 with Ronald Reagan saying are you better off today than you were four years ago. They may look back at the 2016 campaign and the phrase that fits that campaign the most tightly the most effective for him was what do you have to lose . Of course, he was aiming it at black voters but there are a lot of white voters, rich bankers, a lot of other people, a lot of whatever, you name the demographic. Hispanic business people, a lot of people looked at that and said, well, you know, wait a second. Hes right. The bushes and the clintons have not been a bargain over the past 30 years, what do we have to lose . That vanishes immediately when youre suddenly the guy thats sitting behind the desk in the oval office. He doesnt have that advantage and now that advantage will go to biden or sanders or whomever who wins the democratic nomination. Yeah. Whoever wins the democratic nomination is the great xfactor here. But the history of this youre right. There were ten president ial elections between 1980 and 2016 and a bush or a clinton was on 80 of the National Tickets which is a remarkable thing to sit back and think about. Steve talked about one of the few years where one wasnt in 08 and 12. So it was a i would argue a reactive vote. You know, even if you voted for the imcumbent, you werent by and large doing it out of great positivity about him. As the numbers show. It was a case of basically they were saying to washington, if youre going to act like a bunch of professional wrestlers well send you one and now people have seen what thats like. And the answer to what have you got to lose turns out to be quite a lot. Culturally and now as we see the economy moving in the direction it seems to be moving, there may be even a more precise answer there. So the great question for the era is going to be was 2016 an aberration or the beginning of a significantly longer chapter of a reactive and nativist period of american politics . Well, and if you just look at the demographics, if you look at the data, if you just look at the numbers it is going to be an aberration. Because the numbers do not add up to the brand of politics that donald trump is practicing having any Lasting Impact in american politics. It will not. And mika, again, you look at not only the reelect the 40 reelect, there are a lot of states where donald trump is doing extraordinarily well. In the deep south and in some of the plains states but that reelect is far lower in michigan. It was in the low 30s last time i checked. And wisconsin, low 30s. Pennsylvania, low 30s. Hes upside down in those states. According to fox news, upside down in all of those states and is getting getting beaten very badly by Bernie Sanders. Yeah. Professed socialist. So he has a long way to go and again the most important thing, mika, we were talking about this while you were scaling mount kilimanjaro, the most important thing to remember is again, hes got a really Strong Economy going right now. Even with the Strong Economy, hes really struggling. So that can you imagine what would happen to those numbers if the economy took a tumble . We certainly hope it doesnt. We hope the any stays really strong. But youre right though. Thats actually thats what people are really worried about inside the white house right now. Absolutely. President trump though is pushing back about that. Growing concerns that youre hearing from inside the white house and from ceos across the country of a possible recession. The president and some of his aides spent the weekend trying to downplay those worries following last weeks volatility in the stock market. While preparing to depart new jersey to return to the white house yesterday, trump was asked about the likelihood a recession could be looming. I dont see a recession. I mean, the world is in a recession right now. And although thats too big a statement. A lot of the economies say that now were preparing for a recession, that no president is immune to the recession and its up to the government yeah. Phil, honestly im prepared for everything. I dont think were having a recession. Were doing tremendously well. Our consumers are rich. I gave a tremendous tax cut and theyre loaded up with money. When you go and analyze the curve, the curve always means that about two years later maybe youll go thats a long time, two years. But i dont think so. Interest rates are low. I could be helped out by the fed. But the fed doesnt like helping me too much. I sure dont see a recession. We had some blockbuster retail sales consumer numbers towards the back end of last week. Really blockbuster numbers and in fact despite a lot of worries with the volatile stock market most economists on wall street towards the opened of the week had been marking up the forecasts for the third and fourth quarter. That echoes our view. You know, what we have got here consumers are working at higher wages. They are spending at a rapid pace. Theyre actually saving also while theyre spending. Thats an ideal situation, so i think actually the second half of the economy is going to be very good in 2019. Despite the strong talk by the president and his top aides, Jonathan Lemire, you have new reporting that suggests there are concerns within the administration over a possible recession. And what it could mean for next years election. Reading from your piece, quote, trump advisers fear a weakened economy could hurt him with moderate republicans and independents who were giving him a pass on the rhetoric. They see few options for reversing course should the economy slip. Though trump has expressed private worries about wall street hes skeptical about the weaker Economic Indicators wondering if the media and the establishment figures are manipulating the data to make him look bad. Trumps skepticism has been reinforced by white house officials who have long been inclined to show him rosier economic assessments. The New York Times reiterates that trump has repeated the claims in private discussions with aides and allies insisting that his critics are trying to take away what he sees as his calling card for reelection. Trump has been agitated in discussions about the economy and by the news medias reporting of warnings of a possible recession. The times has said that forces that do not want him to be win have been overstating the damage the trade war has caused an several aides agree with him that the news media is overplaying the economic fears, adding to his feeling of being justified. Joe, the question i have for you the challenge for the media has been sometimes how to characterize the things that have come out of the president s mouth and the things that hes done and said in a way that is as objective as possible. As right down the middle as possible because some of them are so incendiary. Some of the things he says are basically racist and its been difficult to just report on it because when you say what the president says it sounds horrible. Its not us. Its him. Hes got a very extreme way of communicating his hatred. Well, when if you just look at just the numbers the numbers are the numbers. If you look at and i talked about Jonathan Lemire, what paul singer wrote last week. A concern of an extraordinarily damaging reversal on the economy. This is not this is not just people in the media. There are a lot of people who are very concerned and obviously the medias responsibility is not to be caught sleeping. I think a lot of us were caught sleeping in 2007, 2008 when we didnt understand what was going on in the big banks. We didnt understand the credit default swaps. We didnt understand the crisis that was coming. So certainly when people like paul singer are warning of a coming economic crisis there is a responsibility for everybody to be a bit more alert. I personally i dont know economics that well. I was reading Sports Illustrated in the back of my university of alabama econ 101 class i dont see it coming because Consumer Confidence is so high and because the United States economy is so much stronger than the rest of the worlds. My biggest concern is that what the trade war is doing to economies of those we trade with the most. It seems to me that may be the biggest challenge to short term and long term challenge to our economy. Yeah. And joe, let me first say that mika was on the adventure last week but we were far not confident of her ability to survive the week than yours. Well, i have to i have to say that three days in, i didnt think i was going to make it. He was a mess. You can only have so many big macs while youre in mourning. Oh, my god. Yeah. Again, radio simmer down. Radio silence. Its like apollo 13 goes around to the other side of the mean and you cant hear from tom hanks. Tom, are you okay, but that was three days for me. While she was on the peak smoking a cigarette saying, look at how beautiful this is. That and the red sox struggles are not good for your health. No, its not. The worries ott of the white house though is exactly the economy. This has been all along the president s number one argue. Hes overseeing a Strong Economy and no doubt its not strong for every american, and no doubt he inherited it from barack obama it was on the rise when he took office. But the economy has been good under this president and hes tied his fortunes to the stock market in an unprecedented way. So as we have seen such volatility in the last week or two, that has really unnerved both him and the people around him. As you just read from the piece, you know, theres aides whether its about the economy or foreign policy, people around the president have been presented him the best Case Scenarios knowing he can react very strongly when he sees the numbers he doesnt like. Sees information he doesnt like. Thats always been the case. Thats been a challenge for people around him to sort of present him on a an honest assessment as to whats gone on. But the president has not accepted any responsibility. The aides suggest he into down the trade war with china seeing that as the number one thing thats rattling the markets but instead hes blaming the fed. Asking for more Interest Rate cuts than hes received. We have seen him trying to ram up up other distractions. Reiterating the culture war divisions including the two democratic congresswomen, the situation with israel in the last two days. That hes trying to make the case that the economy is his number one argument. If it slows down, they know theyre in trouble. Theyre seeing the same poll numbers that we are. They are seeing that if he cant make that argument and provide frankly cover, cover for republicans, cover for some that sliver of independents who are willing to look the other way. Who are perhaps bothered by some of the racist rhetoric but theyre willing to go along with it because the economy is doing good, doing well for their business or checking account, if that goes away hes going to have a very hard time making the case for reelection. Very hard case. And when the debate when donald Trump Supporters are having to defend statements that the majority of americans think are racist, thats a problem. Of course, his defenders in the media even there was a column in the wall street journal talking about how what trump is saying is not racist. Well, over half of americans disagree with that, a majority of americans in a recent poll said they believe that donald trump is racist. Thats a real challenge for obviously any swing voters. And as far as the trade war goes, mika, i actually heard this on fox news last week. Somebody expressing real concern that the chinese already know that donald trump the only sort of economic trick he has left in his bag is to come to a resolution on the trade war with china to get the economy going. Well, if we all know that, then the chinese leaders know that. Xi knows that. And so xi will drive a harder bargain with donald trump and at the end of the day, the man who wrote a book on the art of the deal while he was losing more money than any american alive will have to strike another bad deal with the chinese because they know hes timing all this for his reelection. Hes going to push the trade war as long as he can, and then as he gets into the end of 2019 or the beginning of 2020, okay, lets do a trade deal with china and try to amp the economy up. The chinese know that, so obviously Donald Trumps position at the table is going to significantly weakened and American Consumers and farmers continue to be hurt. Im worried about his knee jerk strategy to try to deflect people from what is really happening because the economy is like driving a boat. Things kind of happen after you have turned the wheel. And this president s not doing to get the reactions he wants in this economy if hes not careful. Adrienne elrod, lets talk about the democrats. What is the challenge for democrats, for the democratic president ial candidates as it pertains to discussing the economy . Because, again, the president has a way of turning things against people and making it look like they want something bad to happen. And at the same time, they do need to give americans some clear talk about what the options are. Yeah.