Telecommunications firms zte and waway. Joining us is ron insana. I dont even know when ive seen anything like this. Market volatility is nothing new but have we ever seen the kind of swings weve seen in the past two days and really the past two weeks . Absolutely. Percentage basis . Yesterdays 1,000point gain did not even qualify for the top 50 percentage moves in stock market history. Are you kidding . No, im serious. Because it sure felt bad to me. They do. Its the law of large numbers. Back in 1987 when the dow fell 508 points on october 19th, that was a 23 decline coming off 2200 on the dow. Were at 22,000 today. To have that type of day you need to be down 5,000 points. Whoa widely different virp. It always feels rocky. Volatility has been up. Were seeing more 2, 3, 4, 5 days than we typically do and were in the midst of a bear market, where stocks are down 20 from their most recent highs and some stocks are down considerably more than that. And for the reasons you cited, trade war with china, federal reserves Interest Rate policy, whether or not the fed chief jay powell is in the president s good graces. Slowing economy. Whole host of factors of late. And an unusually calm year for the stock market. People got used to it and people liked it. Half of americans at least have money invested in a 401 k , mutual fund, those kinds of investments for sure. I think what you just said may have given them a little breath. Like they can take a breath, step back and realize a percentage basis is not as bad as it might feel. Having said that, theres still a sense of panic. So what say you . First of all, one should never panic. Particularly individual investors with the longterm time horizon and a practiced discipline of investing on a regular basis. If they dont need the money in the next one, two, or three years, you typically dont get worried about this kind of stuff. We had the great financial crisis, the dow fell 50 from its peak. The banks fell 90 on average. That was a much bigger deal and yet we survived that experience as well. No doubt well survive this one. This looks to me like a garden variety, if you will, bear market in stocks. Maybe pressaging a growth slowdown next year. A lot needs to be resolved on the economic front, whether its policy, political turmoil in washington. Any one of those things. The Government Shutdown even, although to a small extent. These things need to be resolved for the market to feel more comfortable. Ron insana, always good to see you, my friend. Thank you. And joining us on the phone right now for the advisory firm, Grant Thornton and adviser to the federal reserve. Im already hearing people, especially after the swings weve seen, using the r word. You certainly have talked about recession. Help us put all of this in perspective. What should people know about what this means for the overall economy . Unfortunately, we are seeing the risk of recession rise. I have a recession in late 2019 and early 2020 and that is avoidable. Ron alluded to factors that could get us on a better course. The straws are piling up on the camels back and we dont know what will break it. Uncertainty about trade wars, tariffs is one of the number one issues. Does the fed have it right . Will they need to pivot and ease . They would if the economy weakened. Whats been the real disconnect is that this is an incredible holiday season. Consumers are spending like crazy. Part of the reason were seeing better spend something low income households that have finally seen wage increases. Theyre not as affected by the stock market. Consumer confidence showed even though theyre not affected theyre worried about the future. How can they not be when they see these headlines . That veil of uncertainty, much of what ron allude to, needs to be lifted, which perfectly in the hands of washington to do. Its one thing to have a trade disagreement with china but we need to know the path forward, the rules of the road and part of the uncertainty were seeing is all across the globe, what are relationships going to be . What is the Global Supply chain going to look like . And how do we move forward without having that fog of uncertainty . How do we lift that fog of uncertainty . That is really up to the administration. We used to have some level of predictability, based on past behavior. This is a president who often rules by his gut or who had his ear most recently. How long do you expect this volatility to continue, diane . Unfortunately i think were in for a lot of volatility to overlayer all of this, we have a Government Shutdown, which means we dont get any Government Economic data, which would enforce the underlying economy versus a year from now and that will keep us further in the dark. Unfortunately were seeing a lot of decisions out of washington that are making this worse rather than better and the fed is just trying to go the best course it l if the fed has to pivot and ease, they will. Right now, theyre looking at Economic Data thats saying the u. S. Economy still has some likes to it but the expansion is a marathon and their job is to pace ourselves and prop it up if necessary. They cant do that if they dont know what the data is either. Diane swonk, always good to talk to you. Thank you so much for calling in. Appreciate it. Thank you. Well keep our eye on the dow now down 358. Speaking of the administration, here is a quote for you. People that know how to win, the president s praise for american troops after his first trip to combat zones 23 months into his administration. Nine hours since his return, no Public Events scheduled but the criticism has poured in. The Washington Post said his speech to the troops had, quote, the feel of one of his Campaign Rallies and many of the headlines about the trip focus on his numerous false claims, including this head scratcher. You just got one of the biggest pay raises youve ever received, unless you dont want it. You havent gotten one in more than ten years. More than ten years and we got you a big one. I got you a big one. Joining me now, nbc news chief correspondent Hallie Jackson. Donald trump told troops he gave them a 10 pay raise, that it was their first pay hike in ten years. Neither of those claims are true and theyre both easily refu refutab refutable. 24 hours later they put a lid on and no briefing but is there any explanation out of the white house for why the president keeps saying this . No, and i dont expect one to be forthcoming, chris. Not only is that claim, as you put it, easily refutable, its easily refutable by the people the president was speaking with, the troops in the audience who would have been the ones receiving those paychecks. The troops do receive a pay raise. In fact, in 2019 its a 2. 6 pay hike, essentially, not 10 . They got 2. 4 back in 2018 and, by the way, theyve received a pay hike every year for decades and decades. I think the last year that they did not was before i was born and that was because of a technical glitch, chris. It is easily fact checkable and thats what were doing here. So before you were born, 25 years ago. 24, thank you. Apologize. Marine one landed there on the south land before 6 00. And thats surprising, by the way, after a long overseas trip as you know for the president to not be this is not something that we dont see. However, many of us who follow this president would have said, well, he doesnt sleep a lot and that is going to mean hes going to be active on twitter, but we havent seen like a big, long tirade. He did tweet attacks against democrats over immigration and funding for the border. Whats he saying . We just had one in the last hour or so, right . We had several actually in the last couple of minutes, chris, as the president is on this mini tweet storm about democrats, saying that they are the ones who are being obstructionists over this border wall that he wants built and his money for the border wall, right . You can see it there, democrats obstruction of the desperately needed wall. In another instance, he talked back about that remember that daca for a wall deal, that was a bit of revisionist history because the white house was setting up press releases trying to torpedo that bipartisan deal that had come up. The president is clearly frustrated that theres not more movement in his direction related to money for his border barrier, the wall or, as he puts it, a fence, whatever he wants. As he says, he wants something, essentially. And if not 5 billion for it, then at least somewhere in the ballpark of more than 1. 3 billion that the democrats have already offered. I will say this as an example, something weve seen from the president before, chris, talking about, in all caps, that word, obstructionist, that he repeatedly put in his tweets about the democrats. This is a bit of the whatever bounces off of me sticks to you, political gamesmanship that weve seen from the president in the past. He, we know, in the past has been frustrated, his lawyers have talked about it publicly. Here is the president taking that word thats often lobd at him and trying to turn it around in different context against his political opponents. This thing is lasting at least into next week. In the last couple of minutes, the house has been told dont even bother coming back this week. No votes expected. So were in a shutdown for at least a couple of more days. Hallie jackson with a couple of pieces of breaking news. Bob scales, chairman of the Advisory Board for defense secretary jim mattis Close Combat Task force. Rasmussen, Msnbc National Security and intelligence analyst, robert costa, of course, National Political reporter for the Washington Post and msnbc political analyst as well as moderator of Washington Week on pbs, to which i have been addicted for many years. General, can we just go back to the members of the military . Most americans would be happy to see them smiling and having a chance to meet their commander in chief but i suspect that most of them know whats in their paychecks. Its not so huge that a 10 hike would go unnoticed. What do you make of the president falsely claiming these pay increases and that they havent had any in a decade . I have absolutely no idea. The closest i can come to an explanation that the president seems to get pumped up when he has enthusiastic audiences. Having been in this situation myself before, when he gets around a bunch of 18 and 19yearold kids in a combat zone, who are always enthusiastic with a visitor like the president , i guess it tends to pump him up. As far as the troops not knowing they got a 10 raise, you can bet that at the end of every month, the 31st of every month they check their leave and Earnings Statement to see what their bills are going to be. I will also say this. The troops are gotten a 5 overall raise over the last two years. Compared to my day when i made 200 a month, kids today in our military, to be frank with you, are very well taken care of, chri chris. As they should be. Bob costa, the president made a speech that was overtly political, including attacks against democrat business name over funding for his border wall. The winners and losers with trumps strategy on border wall strategy. I want to play that for you. Its a win win strategy for the president with his base and the democrats with their base. Frankly, i think it is a lose lose strategy for the country and how we should be governing and focus on the important problems of the day. But this is another example, as i said, of breaking with norms. President s just dont air domestic disputes on foreign soil particularly in front of troops. Is this what we expect now and well talk about it, but nothing will change . It does not break with the central norm of the trump presidency, which is having a one dimensional combative ethos and approach to any challenge that looms before him, rather than making a broader appeal. As the president looks at 2019, Robert Muellers investigation political and economic uncertainty, whether its the shutdown or speech in iraq, were seeing him again and again in recent weeks in the wake of the midterm elections not move to the center as so many president s in recent history have done after theyve been humbled at the ballot box, but moving toward his base and trying to shore up that support ahead of a particularly tough year. The president thanked troops for the near illumination of the caliphate in syria. Thats different from an unequivocal tweet, we have won against isis. As he goes to talk to the troops and the people who will be on the front lines of the continuing fight, whats the reality . I imagine, country, with his prepared remarks for the troops he was more precise in his claims. Of course, there is an argument to be made that we have done a terrific job of rolling back the territorial aspect of isis, the fiscaliphate. But that was not the only source of strength for the organization and thats why i think the president overreached when he used words like isis is defeated or isis in syria is defeated. As weve seen many of our allies, certainly our intelligence agencies dont look at it that way and isis still remains a potent threat in the region but also globally. And, general, the president also had this to say about foreign policy. I want to play more of what he said in front of the troops. America shouldnt be doing the fighting for every nation on earth, not being reimbursed in many cases at all. If they want us to do the fighting, they also have to pay a price. And sometimes thats also a monetary price. So were not the suckers of the world. Were no longer the suckers, folks. Nobody has a military like us, but were all over the world. Were spread out all over the world. Were in countries that most people have never even heard about and, frankly, its ridiculous. General, should the criteria for where the United States military gets involved be whether or not the majority of americans have heard of it or can find it on a map . Thats a great question, chris. Ill have to say what we just heard the president talk about in that piece is really the core issue we should be talking about this afternoon. His point, i think, is valid in the sense that the United States cant be strong everywhere. And ever since 2014 during the obama administration, it looked as if the United States was pivoting, if you will, away from wars in the middle east and more toward a confrontation with china and russia. Well, chris, that costs money. What the president is trying to allude to here, i think, is the fact if you try to be strong everywhere, you cant be strong at all, in any particular region of the world. So whats important to consider is this critical rebalancing of our resources and our strategy in the years to come. And are we leaving the middle east too soon . Are we walking away from our allies, whether they can pay or cant pay . Its in a condition that may allow these terrorist groups to reemerge. At the same time, facing down putin and facing down the chinese military. Its a very tough balancing act. General mattis did a brilliant job up until next week and well see where we go from here. Nick, the question becomes, where does this leave us, Going Forward . When you look be at the things that the president has had to say, they are sometimes contradictory, unclear. Sometimes he puts out tweets and even commanders have suggested theyve not gotten the direct orders. After what you hear the president say yesterday can you form some sort of opinion of what the next two years of a military under President Trump might look like . I think its clear that the president is committed to making sure were not overstretched around the globe and not taking on too many commitments that leave us stretched beyond our means. On the other hand, what was troubling about what he said in iraq was that he framed our participation in the coalition there as some sort of transactional thing. It was something we were doing that we were somehow suckered into and that we werent doing what we were doing in syria and iraq in pursuit of core National Security interest of the United States. And i dont think thats what our military believes. And thats troubling. Imagine aye imagine Going Forward well see the president want to pull back on the degree of u. S. Commitment overseas. Major general robert scales, Nicolas Rasmussen and robert costa, great conversation, gentlemen. Thank you so much. Happy new year. Happy new year, chris. Day six of the Government Shutdown. No vote scheduled. You just heard that new report. Dont come back. Thats basically the word to the house after a gloomy assessment this afternoon from the Number Two Senate democrat. Well talk more about this with someone who represents a lot of those furloughed federal workers, congressman jerry connelly, after the break. Jerry connelly, after the break. Yeah, this is bob barnett in chicago. john foley i was there when bob barnett made the first commercial Wireless Phone call. We were both working on that First Network that would eventually become verizons. That call opened the door to the billions of mobile calls that weve all made since. Im proud i was part of that first call, and im proud that im here now as we build americas first and only 5g Ultra Wideband Network that will transform how we all live, once again. bob the first call that weve made on the cellular system. This just in. Were getting our first look at the 8yearold boy who died in federal custody, felipe gomez alon d alonso. An investigation into his death continues at this hour. A 7yearold also from guatemala died in custody earlier this month. K Kirsten Nielsen says there will be a change in policy. Seeing a picture certainly does drive it home. Is there a sense among people who have been on the front lines with these folks that what was announced yesterday, the changes that were announced are going to make a difference . Are they going to have the reso