Court of public opinion. We begin this hour in iowa with the contenders. A big event for democrats happening within the next hour. It comes fresh off new polling showing significant shifts. Yes, joe biden, still leading the pack. Hes lost several points since march. A slide for senator Bernie Sanders coupled with some major gains by fellow senator Elizabeth Warren and mayor Pete Buttigieg, put the three in a virtual tie. The new numbers as a whopping 19 candidates converge on cedar rapids, iowa, for the states largestever democrat hall of fame reception that is happening this afternoon. We have Team Coverage with our Political Panel right here. Were going to get started in cedar rapids with our road warrior, Shaquille Brewster. And shaq, youre outside the hall of fame event right now. Just hours after this new poll was released, whats the vibe so far . How are the campaigns taking it all in . Reporter well, you said the 19 candidates have come to cedar rapids. Its not only the 19 candidates, but its all their volunteers and supporters. I have to tell you, thats Bernie Sanders. He was marching with striking mcdonalds workers. Hes marching to the event right now. Just look around. You have Amy Klobuchar and her supporters there just walking in. Kamala harris, kirsten gillibrand. Cory booker just spoke to his supporters outside. Just to set this up, 19 candidates are going to be speaking at that hall of fame dinner. Its a democratic event here in cedar rapids. And with all the candidates here in town not only to get their pitches, theyre going to have five minutes to make their case to these activists, but also to have events outside. We know some candidates have gone to church services. Others have gone and had that that meeting with the striking mcdonalds workers. Very busy day here in cedar rapids. It is the setup to west wide story it seems out there with the sharks and jets, with everybody in their own parts right now. So joe biden is noticeably absent from iowa this weekend. Were learning some reasons why. What is it . Reporter thats exactly right. One of the candidates not here is Vice President joe biden. This is a tweet we just saw, im pulling it from troy price. He said, glad i picked up the phone when it said no caller i. D. It was Vice President biden wishing Iowa Democrats well today and that he wished he could be here, but it was his granddaughters graduation. An event that he would postpone an inauguratil for. Hope they have a great day. Vice President Biden not here. Some people aread into that. He wasnt in california when they had another cattle calllike event with candidates coming in. Vice President Biden and the campaign saying he wants to be with his granddaughter. Despite that, you see the candidates. I havent seen Vice President s campaign or signage for his campaign here. A lot of other candidates who want to make their voices known. Including that dog right there. And we are told that the that biden plans to be there on tuesday. He will make it to the Hawkeye State after all. Right in the middle of it all. Lets break down where the race stands now and what we can glean from the poll numbers. Here with me is michael stooefl, former spokesperson for House Speaker john bany, the Democratic Political consultant, and former Obama Administration official. Well start in studio 3a with julia. You see the poll numbers. What do you glean from that . I glean from that that name vision paramount this early on. But i would say to joe biden, if he wants to maintain that lead, he needs to get out some more. He cant do this and parachute in what he wants. Hillary clinton suffered from that a few years ago when her campaign kept her away from the voters to an extent that i thought was a little too much. I would say to joe biden, i understand his granddaughters graduation is today, but hes got to get on the ground. Hes got to contend with the field. If not hes going to go into potential general election not the shape he wants to be with primary democratic voters. Some found if surprising that he did not inform the Democratic People in iowa beforehand that that was the rationale behind why he was missing this big event. What do you make of it . Yeah. That feels like interov feels like important oversight. Im going to talk about joe biden and what weve seen. One, joe biden recently confronted an issue which he was out of step with the Democratic Party. Listened to prague relatives and activists and got the message,s and thats good news. One other thing, the good news i think for the Democratic Party on the change is there are a lot of democrats who have been in the same boat, who have held that position on the Hyde Amendment for a long time. And if this causes them to reevaluate their support and get in a good place, then i think thats good for everybody. I think where democrats need to be is this nobody should be denied reproductive care or rights because theyre poor. Thats it. And to you, Michael Steele because mayor buttigieg saw the largest growth, 13 points, followed by senator warren. What do you think is behind the surge there . I not hes a fresh i think hes a fresh face. Democrats are looking for something new. The point that was made was exactly wrong. One of the strengths of joe biden is that he has a more moderate position than most of the candidates in this race on the democratic side. That makes him a stronger general election candidate. I think that, one, abandoning a position that 60 or so of the americans agree with because of pressure from activists is not a good place to be going into the election, and abandoning position of conscience at the urging of your staff and the former staff of whos the boss looks weak. He is a weak frontrunner, i think its going to continue to show in sliding polls, particularly if he doesnt show up at events like this and defend his positions. There are a lot of people saying you dont want to be the leader at all of the polls at this point because theres only one way to go. And joe biden, see we have this tweet now, his campaign popped up a tweet for best friends day yesterday. Showing joe and barack, while people thought it was interesting, some thought it sounded too thirsty. What do you make of how his campaign is going . You know, i think hes running for Barack Obamas third term. A lot of democrats wish barack obama could have had a third term. This is the bed that hes made, and he lying in it. He has consistently said he was Barack Obamas numberone partner some say this is a joke, right . I think its a joke because i think hes made those bracelets back at camp when i was about 13. Its indicative of the fact that he is the heir to the obama legacy and can lay that claim this ways nobody else can in the campaign. Many want to, but he was obamas Vice President and has the ability to do that. But Pete Buttigieg is a fresh, new face. For that reason, somebody like that can come up behind biden and pretend not pretend but establish himself as the person for the 21st century that biden no longer can. Jake, you worked in the former administration. In a lot of ways Hillary Clinton tried to run for for a third obama term right there. And so is it a good idea to try to run with the obama legacy for biden . Its definitely a starting place. I think that, you know, he served in an extremely popular administration, especially among democrats. Thats a good place to start. He needs to get beyond that, which is what i think hes doing starting to say not only will i extend these policies and feeling of the Obama Administration, but im going to reach out to people who have felt like they were left behind and understand the breadth of the challenge that were facing. I think its a starting place, but it cant be where it ends. I want to say to michaels point, as well, when hes talking about 60 of people agreeing with the Hyde Amendment, if you ask the question, if you say, you know, should women who are poor, women of low income have access to Reproductive Health care, should have access to reproductive rights, they will overwhelmingly say yes. Thats in battleground states theyll say yes. It depends on how you ask the question. I think the American People are more where the democrats are on this issue than than the position that hes describing. You want to weigh in on that . No, i think its look, the fair way to ask the question is do you support taxpayer funding for abortion, thats the way its asked when 60 of the American People oppose it. Thats why many Congressional Democrats agree with the Vice President s former position. Thats why, again, this is a bad look because its the Vice President getting bullied out of a position that would help him in the general election, particularly in the upper midwestern states like pennsylvania, michigan, and wisconsin, in order to appease the left and the democratic primary let me this took place during one week in politics. Were still 200plus days out from iowa. Do you think people are going to remember any of this and what took place and the transition that the former Vice President had in this past week . I think his position on a fundamental matter of conscience is something that people are going to be interested in during the democratic primaries and in the general election, absolutely. All right. Lets talk about wednesday because it is the deadline, as you guys know, for the democrats to qualify for the first debate. Will we see these new poll numbers impact all of that, the dynamic of the candidates . Julie . I mean, certainly the poll numbers are relevant into what makes the debate, who makes the debate stage. This is the first opportunity for some of these lower ranking members or senators, congress people, candidates, to break out. Somebody like a cory booker who i know well and prepped for both of his senate debates, for example, has the opportunity to really establish himself in this debate if he makes the debate stage. Others who are not polling where they want to be have the opportunity to really take off. But it is early. And they do have the opportunity to maintain that. To your earlier point, i will say, donald trump led from the start of the polls and continued to lead all the way through the primary. I think joe biden, may not want to be a frontrunner now but pi bet people would rather be joe biden than not be joe biden at this point. Few democrats who have led this early on has gotten the nomination. Hillary clinton i believe was the last one within the last few decades to actually win the nomination. Jake, to you, and the setup for this debate. Of course, were 17 days away from the miami debate. Right now, if youre advising a candidate, they have no idea who theyll be debating much less what night theyll be debating on. What would your advice be to a candidate in them trying to prepare for it . So this is i would say this is a strength of this moment in the debates is that you dont know who youre going to be up against. Which means you have to focus on your message, what you believe, and communicating that effectively to the public. You have a very brief amount of time, you got ten candidates on stage, you have a brief amount of time to make the case for why you. This is the moment to do that. So you need to be ready to make that case effectively. It has to feel authentic. It has to come from where you are, and you have to do it in fronts. A whole lot in front of a whole lot of people. I think you effectively made your case there. Thanks to julie, jake, and michael. Please stick around, by the way. Were 17 days, as i mentioned, from the first president ial debate of the election cycle. June 26th, june 27th, in miami. Primetime event will be broadcast live across the nbc platforms, of course. Were going to remind you about all of that. Ahead, months in the making, days after threatening tariffs, President Trump declares a winwin, but critics claimed it was all a lie because the deal had been agreed upon months ago. So was this just the president what was he doing here . Nt what was he doinger he . Hard work leaves a mark. It shows on your clothes. Theyre branded by sweat, pride, and every stain the job throws at you. 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Oh sister its gonna get way weirder. Welcome back, everyone. Im Kendis Gibson. President trump attempted the humble brag for winning a trade war that he actually started, writing everyone, very excited about the new deal with mexico, but according to new reporting from the New York Times it turns out this deal is not so new. It writes mexico agreed to take border actions months before trump announced his tariff deal which prompted this fourpart tweet storm from the president. There you see it. Lashing out against the newspaper, calling it the true enemy of the people. Joining me live from the white house lawn is nbcs ron allen. Ron, give us a little bit of play by play of how the timeline for this whole thing unfolded. Reporter you have to remember there are ongoing talks between the United States and mexico about immigration problems at the border. And some of these principles that were announced as a big deal were apparently agreed to many months ago. For example, heres some of the timeline back in december of 2018, mexico agreed to expand the allowance of Asylum Seekers to remain in mexico. These are people who requested asylum in the United States, who are going to stay in mexico while their cases are heard. It could take years. Then in march of 2019, mexico agreed to deploy its National Guard troops. On may 30th, the president announced that the mexico trade tariffs would go into effect. On june 5th, u. S. Officials met with mexican officials for negotiations. And then on june 8th, the mexican president agrees to deploy the National Guard throughout mexico. And so forth. Now the administration is saying that while there may have been agreements reached months ago that what has happened is that the agreements were expanded. The number of troops has been increased from as many as 5,000 to 6,000. And some are arguing that the troops were never deployed even though the mexicans said they would. This is all pretty complicated stuff. Its also further complicated by the fact that there are a lot of doubts about whether the mexicans actually had the capacity to really affect a lot of change on the border even if they do deploy 6,000 troops down to the border with guatemala where a lot of Central Americans have been coming in, a huge part of the problem. Those are police, theyre theyre guard troops who would be doing other things in the country. Cracking down on crime and violence and other things. Also, theres a lot of concern about whether if these Asylum Seekers who applied for asylum in the u. S. And then stay in mexico while their cases are being heard, whether the mexicans have the composite to care for the people have the ability to care for the people in a humane way. The devil is in the details as they say. And going forward, the mexicans are cautioning that even though this deal was reached, its going to take some time before there can be anything significant at the border. The president , its unclear what he wants to see happen that will satisfy him before he will threaten more tariffs. And of course, critics are saying that that this deal was basically agreed to, that the president threatened tariffs, created this huge crisis, and then raced in to solve it himself, to appeal to his base because immigration is such a hot issue. And of course, how you see this depends on your politics. Indeed. It does seem like the conquering hero at the end of the day. Ron allen at the white house. Our thanks to you. Lets go back to where all of this started. The president surprised many kue actually in his administration and the officials when he announced the tariffs. What was happening at the time . The news siebcycle was dominate Robert Mueller first public speech in which he said he did not exonerate trump of obstruction of justice. It was a mere 32 hours between muellers appearance and trumps surprise tariff tweet. Joining me to discuss former assistant to president obama, chris lou, and former