Were going to start with terrorism. You can see why secretary of state john kerry described yesterdays attacks in turkey as daily fair. A jarring phrase to hear yesterday but its true. Right now it feels like the new normal. Were less than three weeks from the start of the conventions. Can the public really accept the idea that this idea of terrorism is a new normal . Were going to dive into that in just a moment. First, we want to get the latest from istanbul. Some images were going to show you are graphic in nature. Youre being warned. If you want to have people look away, look away. This is new video in the immediate aftermath of last nights deadly attacks. At Ataturk International airport. The death toll stands at 41 according to turkish officials with hundreds injured. Still no official claims of responsibility. Officials in both turkey and the United States believe its highly likely the work of isis. Were getting new warnings from u. S. Intelligence officials as well. Cia director john brennan told yahoo news, quote, id be surprised if daesh, of course another term for isis, or the Islamic State is not trying to carry out that kind of attack in the United States. John brennan, head of the cia just said that. President obama is expected to speak this hour in an address to the Canadian Parliament which was the site of its own lone wolf terror attack just two years ago. At a press conference earlier this afternoon in ottawa with the canadian Prime Minister md mexican president , president obama addressed the attacks in instan bull with a renewed promise to defeat the isis ideology. Were still learning all the facts, but we know this is part of our broader effort. We are confident that we can and we will defeat those who offer only death and destruction, and we will always remember, even as there are those who are trying to divide us, that we are stronger when we come together and work toward a better world together. Joined by Richard Engel who is in istanbul for us. Lets start with just the turkish governments immediate response. The fact that their Prime Minister came out and said it was likely isis, what are they going on . What is it that leads them to believe, or is it simply how they went about the attack . Theyre not giving full details about why they think it is isis but many people that weve spoken to in the u. S. Government, terrorism analysts, believe that this looks very much like an isis attack. There had been warnings we reported on on nbc news about isis planning to carry out attacks during the month of ramadan. And it seems this was isis making good on those threats. Isis had staged militants, we were told, more than 35 in this country for the sole purpose of doing terrorist activities during ramadan. So the concern is now ramadan is not over. Will there be more . But you have a multiple suicide attacks. Very sophisticated, coordinated assault. A commandostyle assault on a highprofile target. That looks like isis to many people. Ive got to ask. Is this idea i know that on the ground in iraq and syria, you hear from plenty of military and diplomatic sources that say isis is on the run. Theyre playing defense. Theyre not playing offense anymore. And yet, it does seem as if they are capable of more and more small, sophisticated terror attacks. Are they simultaneously becoming more of a sort of threat to places like soft targets and at the same time in a big way becoming less of a threat . It seems as if were having some success on the ground but isis as a terror group is spreading its ideology with extra ease. I dont know if its spread tgs ideology with extra ease but its militants are fanning out. Theyre leave, trying to carry out attacks elsewhere. I think isis finally realized if it sends its fighters to attack a check point run by Bashar Al Assads forces or to attack kurdish patrol, that hardly anyone notices and its a tremendous amount of work. Yet, if it can get its operatives into europe and many operatives are already there or it can carry out an attack here in istanbul, it suddenly will get International Prestige and headlines. In a way its much easier for isis to do this and much easier to do it for the long term. Isis probably will lose its foothold in iraq and syria over time. Maybe over a year. Maybe two years. But the people where isis operates loathe the organization. That doesnt mean it wont continue to operate in the diaspora and it could continue to operate in places like europe or in even parts of the United States well after isis is gone from controlling iraq and syria. How important is al baghdadi to the isis movement if president obama said in order to do whatever it takes, you know, get rid of this guy, what would that do to isis . Leadership matters. If you look at the past, the original leader of isirks a precursor group, zarqawi, he was a fundamental leader. He was he set the tone for the organization. He was broughtal personally and when he died, he was replaced by a series of ineffective leaders, and it led to not just the decline of then not that became isis but i remember speaking to some people in the u. S. Special forces community who said i wish we hadnt taken out that leader because the ones that replaced baghdadi, the ones that replaced zarqawi because they were so bad. They were driving their own organization into the ground. The leadership does matter. If you look at al qaeda after the death of bin laden. Al qaeda hasnt really recovered because zawahiri is seen as unpopular, uncharismatic, a divide enot a unifier, even within his own organization. So, yes, leaders do matter. Well see if theres an intense effort to get baghdadi, especially in the next few months. Richard engel in istanbul, thank you. Are we in a new normal . That may be true. How will it impact the 2016 race . Just moment ago, donald trump took aim at Hillary Clinton on the issues of terrorism and security. Isis was formed during her tenure. Isis is now worse than ever. You see what happened yesterday. You see whats going on generally. Isis is looking strong. Isis is signing up people over the internet. They know how to use the internet better than we do, and we do nothing about anything. They are taking our youth. There you go. Im joined by carol lee, Washington Post chief correspondent dan balls and david ignatius. David, let me start with you. Because i am curious of your view on this. In this respect. Look. When a populist feels insecure, they look for easy, strong, comforting words. And trump is providing that whether true or not. Clinton and obama are basically saying, weve got this. Its working. It takes time. Is the public going to accept that . Thats what one of the things this election obviously will test. Secretary clinton has a strong case to make contrary to what donald trump said in the clip you just made. She was one of the people within the Obama Administration who was arguing from 2012 on for a stronger policy against isis, against the precursor of isis, to prevent the situation were seeing now. She has a story to tell. I have to say that the easy answers that donald trump is offering to a worried, frightened country like lets go back to tort ureally do hurt the position of the United States and trying to fight this battle. Contrary to what donald trump says, theres an awful lot going on on the ground. I was just inside syria with the commander of centcom. And i can talk in a minute about what i saw. The idea that were not doing anything about this threat is not accurate. No, i understand that, dan balls. But its perception, not reality, that Hillary Clinton is going to be dealing with on this. And Donald Trumps very comfortable saying whatever it takes to make people feel better and that idea of were going to go get him, whatever it takes. And thats just not Hillary Clintons nature. Shes a diplomat. But this stuff is hard, and i think theres a fatigue in the country on this and maybe they dont have the paustience for hard. Its a great question and as david said, this is one of the big issues in this campaign. I think part of it is exactly what people are looking for n what are the strengths each candidate brings to it. As you say, donald trump presents himself as the strong man, as the guy who will get tough as the guy who will protect this country in ways that the others havent done. The clinton people feel whether its this or last week with the vote in britain that in a time of uncertainty and insecurity, what are people looking for . What temperament are they looking for in their leader . Its not just a question of kind of the sloganeering. I think both of these candidates are projecting what they believe that a bulk of the country is going to want. And were going to have to watch this play out. But theres no question that theres two sides to this debate right now. Carol lee, the Obama White House and david wants to get into this, too. I hear from it is clear they are making progress against isis. The organization thats in iraq. And at the same time, the American Public doesnt see that. What do they see . Terrorist attack in istanbul. Isisinspired terrorist attack in orlando. Isis inspired terrorist attack in san bernardino. This is i think this has been a challenge to this white house for all eight years. And particularly in the last few months. If you talk to people inside the white house theyll tell you theyre struggling with how to talk about this, how to convey whats happening because privately theyll say this is the new normal. This is what its going to be like. You never want to say that out loud. John kerry did and i was surprised. Hes right, but it was stunning. The president has walked close to that line. He says you cant stop somebody who wants to blow themselves up. These arent things or who wants to buy a gun and go in and shoot up a place. Hes gotten close to that. Theyve not figured out how to talk about this. Just to go back to donald trump and Hillary Clinton, our poll, the nbc wall street journal poll had him ahead of her in terms of handling terrorism. It was close. If you look at that, what he seems to be doing is something people want to hear. You brought up an important point about Hillary Clinton that she definitely would have pursued a different strategy in syria than president obama had she been president. But at the end of the day, shes running with him, not against him. I dont know if she can fully separate herself that easily. I think president obamas got to learn how to tell the country more clearly what hes doing. Theres a reluctant to talk about operations on the ground. Ive written often hes a good covert commander in chief. Often not so good. Just to be specific. The turkish Syrian Border has been open for the last five years. Thats how all these foreign fighters, 30,000 or more, flowed into syria. The president said to the the president of turkey, erdogan, a month and a half ago, unless you close that border, were going to do it. And we did do it. On may 31st, the u. S. Led an assault on a town just south of the Turkish Border that is now surrounded. That key isis transit point and closed it off. That may be a motivation for the attack that we just saw yesterday. Its entirely possible. Isis is more surrounded and cut off now in syria than at any time in the last five years. The president doesnt talk about that. He thinks its secret. Not productive to discuss it. I think the American People are going to need to know more about whats going on. Dan balls, ive been wondering as were talking about, and you were in london covering the brexit vote. Globalization in this antiglobalization mindset that may be contagious throughout the western world. Terrorism is a part of it. If terrorism is a part of the new normal its because the world has gotten smaller and the world is coming here. The two things are intertwined here. The issue on the economy n the issue on terrorism. The interconnectedness of the world is certainly part of whats going on and the president at the press conference in canada an hour ago talked about the downsides of globalization for a lot of people. And thats very real. And it was striking yesterday in Donald Trumps speech. He went right at that issue in a way no republican has done and very few democrats have been willing to do absent perhaps Bernie Sanders. But im not dan, we had to go back to Warren Harding to find a republican nominee as antitrade antifree trade as donald trump was. Im going to talk about that later in the show. But go ahead. Chuck, in a sense, it goes beyond trade itself. I think it goes beyond the to the idea that in one way or another, the modern world that has been created has not been good for a lot of people. And were beginning to hear from them as we saw in britain last week. Carol, when it comes to syria, does the white house accept the idea that, look, they havent gotten their syria policy right. Maybe they feel as if they made the right call at the time not to do it when he decided not to go through with his promise to bomb those chemical weapons factories. But did they acknowledge this hasnt worked . They acknowledge the policy is not working, yes, privately. But they, if anything, have become more dug in when you talk to people over there on the president s early decision not to arm rebels and on the 2013 decision not to enforce the red line with military force. So theyre very bought in at this point to the policy and decisions that were made very early on and will argue that nothing would be any different. In fact, it would possibly be worse. David, are we going to be debating the obama syria decision for decades . Im afraid so. Its like the invasion of iraq by president bush in 2003. Its going to look, i think, as if the consequences of the decision are so bad. You look at the situation today in syria and the consequences that flow from it. Even the destabilization of europe, our closest ally, great britain. You cant argue that that situation, which is the product of the decisions that president obama made is a situation the United States would want. Its hard to know at each point what the right thing to have done would have been. You cant say where weened up is a good place. Everybody agrees with that. Theyll argue about the others. Carol, dan, david, its a pretty smart conversation with three of you. Sorry that i interrupted it. You guys are great. Thanks. Coming up, northern exposure. The 2016 race. President obama faces questions on trade, economic anxiety and donald trump during his trip to canada. Plus, more republicans want to trade in their nominee. Well look at whats ahead in cleveland. Just 19 days until the convention. If theres going to be chaos, were going to find out soon, i think. Stay tuned. With usaa is awesome. Homeowners insurance Life Insurance automobile insurance i spent 20 years active duty they still refer to me as Gunnery Sergeant when i call being a usaa member becaus ofr to pasthat on to my kids being a usaa member becaus ofr something that makes me happy my name is roger zapatand im a usaa member for life. Usaa. Know what it means to serve. Get an insurance quote and see why 92 of our members plan to stay for life. Donald trumps struggles with minority voters. Our poll shows a potential challenge for trump with white voters. Its with the education gap. Trump has a strong lead over clinton among white voters without a college degree. 23 points. The two are neck and neck among white voters with some college education. Bachelors degree or more. So compared to 2012, in an october poll, mitt romney led president obama handily among both of those voters. Doubledigit leads. Massive with nonCollege Educated whites. The impact of these numbers could be felt the most in the rust belt which brings us to our map of the day. Pennsylvania and ohio. They are key swing states, if you are donald trump, and you want to make this a race, that have large populations of white voters with bachelors degrees. They are centered around metro centers. Philadelphia, pittsburgh, klum, but cleveland. All places that hold a lot of votes. Closer margins in these places mean trump would have to find many more votes mostly in more rural areas where there are fewer votes to find. Trump was in ohio and pennsylvania yesterday. To put it into historical perspective, a democrat has never carried College Educated white voters in the history of modern polling. That goes back to 1952. Trump will have to improve with this key bloc if hes going to be competitive anywhere, let alone the rust belt. Well be back right after this. These people that are complaining, what are you complaining about. Do you like donald trump . And one of the people says, yeah, i do. Really. Do you like him . No, seriously. I like him. I like the way he speaks and talks. He tells it like are you protesting . Yes. Do you know whats youre protesting about . I dont really know. Donald trump is gearing up for cleveland. So is the Donald Truump trump m. Its trying to build its infrastructure for a potential floor fight. They are building a command center outd the convention and hoping they can somehow change the rules. The New York Times reports that trump and the rnc have teamed up in an attempt to discredit republicans advocating and interpretation of party rules that allow delegates to vote for anyone they want on the first ballot. Okay. But a growing number of prominent republicans fromg paul ryan to scott walker have said delegates should follow their conscience. Senator john mccain told the weekly standard, its up to every delegate to make up their own minds adding, i do not tell them what to do. I never have. Outside of just a handful in congress, most republican elected officials must walk a fine line in their dissent. Our poll shows while a majority of republicans would rather have someone else as their nominee, their efforts to ditch trump still face the same question from the p