Situation. This is mtp daily, and it starts right now. Good evening. Im katy tur in for chuck todd. We begin tonight with the Trump Administrations biggest gamble on the world stage. This afternoon the president basically ripped up the iran nuclear deal, pulling the u. S. From the agreement, violating it, and reimposing sanctions. Unraveling his predecessors signature Foreign Policy achievement and royaling our allies. There is a lot riding on this gamble, and what we heard this afternoon from the president was a mix of mistruths and vague threats. He bashed a nuclear deal as useless, and dangerous. The agreement was so poorly negotiated that even if iran fully complies, the regime can still be on the verge of a Nuclear Breakout in just a short period of time. But iran is complying with the deal and it was structured in a way that would prevent them from enriching uranium to the point where it would take them years to actually use it in a weapon. For comparison before the deal was made, there was a concern that iran was just months away from enriching enough material for a weapon. In his remarks today, pulling us from the deal the president also claimed that the whole thing was built on a lie. At the heart of the iran deal was a giant fiction that a murderous regime desired only a Peaceful Nuclear energy program. Today we have definitive proof that this iranian promise was a lie. Last week israel published intelligence documents long c concealed by iran, conclusively showing the iranians regime and its history of pursuing Nuclear Weapons. But guys, both the bush and Obama Administrations agreed with israels conclusion that iran had a covert nuclear program. That was arguably the whole reason that we negotiated a deal to roll it back. But with that deal gone, there is concern that iran will restart the nuclear program. Irans president is now threatening to do just that so whats going to stop him . Well, heres the president s answer. If the regime continues its nuclear aspirations, it will have bigger problems than it has ever had before. We dont actually have any idea what that threat actually means. Is it a sort of war, missile strikes, more sanctions . Its anybodys guess. Theres also the question of what todays news means for the president s attempt to make a deal with north korea which has a which already has a Nuclear Weapon. And joining me now to talk about this is nbc chief International Security analyst. Admiral, thank you for being here. You were not in agreement about the iran deal back when it was initially negotiated. Do you believe the president was speaking accurately, truthfully today when he was talking about his reasons for wanting to violate it for withdrawing . Yeah. Katie, i think the time to discuss was it a good deal or bad deal has passed. I criticized the deal at the time, youre right, but as we would say in american english, its a done deal, at least it was a done deal. And i think pulling out is a mistake for three reasons. Quickly, one is the uncertainty in the region. We really dont know how iran is going to react. Im sure jim mattis at the pentagon is putting his forces on a higher level of alert. Secondly, its the not gone effect of north korea. With this kind of policy, whats kim jonguns motivation to agree to denuclearize and thirdly, and i think the worst is the division it causes between the United States and our al lies who have already said theyre going to stay in the deal. That puts us in the position of potentially having to sanction them. It is not a good decision to pull out of this deal. What was the Trump Administration hoping to get out of this from your Vantage Point . He was pretty tough on iran, but at the end of that announcement of pulling out of the deal, donald trump seemed to leave a door open for renegotiating it. Yeah. I think the odds of reoer renegotiating the deal with iran are probably the same as the odds as the mexicans paying for the wall. Its not going to happen. What could happen is a side deal to address some of the bad behavior from iran which is significant. And thats what our allies were trying to do. In terms of what we get out of it, well, ill tell you what were not going to get out of it. Were not going to get the billions of dollars we were withholding back. Its unclear to me what we do attain here other than from president trumps perspective, he mismantles another piece of Barack Obamas legacy. It should not be a driver in Foreign Policy. You say that irans not going to renegotiate the deal. A foreign minister tweeted in response to u. S. Unlawful withdrawal from the nuclear deal, ill spearhead an effort to determine whether we remain if youre taking it off the table, what option does that leave . Does this mean in your estimation that iran will pursue building their own bomb . I dont think we know yet. The iranians are going to watch to see what the europeans do. And just in the last few hours, katie, the indications are that our allies, the united kingdom, germa germany, those who negotiated this, the European Union intend to stay in the deal. I think if they stay in the deal, iran will stay in the deal. We will simply become outliers and lose further influence in the region. Thats principally why i think this is a mistake for us. What do you make of the way donald trump sold this today. He talked on the campaign trail about ripping up the iran deal. He made no secret of that. Todays announcement, he didnt try to claim they were in violation of the deal, but he misrepresented the deal dramatically. Turned it on its head saying that it allowed them to pursue enriching uranium and they would be able to make a Nuclear Weapon in a short period of time. He announced that to the American Public today. Yeah. I think we need a sober realistic assessment of whats going on. As president , if hes in possession of that fact set, i think he has an obligation to the American Public to deploy it so we can all think about it, but the united nations, inspectors our allies, our own intelligence agencies to my knowledge, believe that iran is in compliance with the deal. So my belief is that the president has a new fact set. Lets here about it. I think its highly unlikely iran is currently pursuing Nuclear Weapons. Could they in the future . Yes. Does this motivate them to do so . Probably. See paragraph one, not a good agreement. Hard to see what we get out of it other than breaking an old agreement of barack obama and fulfilling a campaign pledge. Theres a big question about what this means for north korea and whether or not the north koreans will be able to trust us when it comes to negotiations. I want to ask you whether or not this all but reaffirms kim jonguns position which is that i cant negotiate until i have a bomb. You look at what happened to Saddam Hussein and gaddafi, and now iran. Would iran have been in a stronger position with this administration if they just pursue building a bomb as north korea did . I think that that is absolutely correct. The iranians have got to be asking themselves tonight, gee, maybe we should have stayed out of this arrangement. However, for the iranian perspective, as long as they can keep the europeans engaged and open up their markets, and as long as they have access to that cash, which flowed to them on balance, id say the iranians have outnegotiated the United States at this point in the discussion. What happens to rouhani . I think youre going to see rouhani stay in the deal. I think until the europeans pull out, thats his best course of action. I dont think theyll Start BuildingNuclear Weapons. If the president has intelligence indicating that, id love to see it. Thank you, admiral. I appreciate it. Lets go to the panel. Marge, New York TimesEditorial Board member. Nick confessore, nbc political analyst, and republican strategist susan delpuriso. Lets talk about the president fulfilling a campaign promise. Can the administration, if we want to look at it in purely political terms, call this a win . He also campaigned against against this. His message was all over the place. He said i can see tearing it up. Its a bad deal. I think the admiral is right. Id be surprised if the president could talk for five minutes about the contents of the agreement and all the different points in it. I think he sees obama wanted it. Must be bad. If liberals are against it, and it will set them to abrogate the agreement, its good. There are people in his administration who have a lot more developed views on this. Bolton was out there saying, by the way, its a bad agreement because we cant tell if theyre keeping to it or not. Then we cant tell it gets to the polarity of the ultimate goal. We can reimpose sanctions and be tough. If our European Partners dont take part, its not going to do much good. Whats the ultimate goal if bolton is saying that, is that can you construe that as an indication that bolton potentially wants regime change and wants to pursue that with this administration . Well, he has been an advocate for regime change before. I wouldnt see it being any different now. But going back to the politics of it, not only does it go back to his a campaign promise, but it makes his base feel good. It makes a lot of republicans in the house and the senate feel good that they can talk about this, and it makes the president of israel feel good which is also really important. Politically i think he did himself some good, except the problem is hes the president of the United States now, and not a candidate. He has to put country first. Is the shortterm good for him politically or longterm . Im so uninterested in how this looks politically for him. I mean, just because as you said, susan, youre the president of the United States now, and one that said, im not sure hes made the case to the American People at all. It did seem to be a fly by the gut decision because he it was an Obama Administration deal. And it just makes me wonder if the politics of it are simply the president has come out looking like hes not being president ial. Hes essentially doesnt look very responsible. Politics for policy, what are we left to expect with this president . Its clear from every action hes taken since hes assumed the presidency that his goal is not anything further than what is going to win him the next election, or win the Republican Party the next election or or the next news cycle. I mean, is it fair to say that hes thinking strategically about American Safety going forward, or world stability . Ill be honest. I dont know what hes thinking. Im not sure what the advantages of pulling out of this deal now are. I can see the argument for not having gotten to it in the first place. Weve given them back the money. Weve expended years and years of diplomatic efforts to align our allies around this policy, and now we have squandered all of that, and we have no better alternative. You always have to ask yourself, whats the alternative policy . Whats the better way to stop them from getting Nuclear Weapons . Do you want to know the second war in the middle east . Probably not. And its also fascinating to me, you know, we are here because of actions that were taken 15, 16, 17, 18 years ago by some of the same people. Iran is stronger today than it was before the iraq war. It is kind of amazing to see john bolton back in the drivers seat on a policy he messed up the first time. Why is john bolton in the drivers seat . Donald trump campaigned on not making bad decisions. John bolton was part of the Decision Making process. Why is john bolton in the drivers seat for a decision like this . Because he performs well on television. Im not joking when i say it. The president doesnt read resumes. He does cast calls. He looks to see who will best fit and whos going out there and making my argument . John bolton does it. There was a lot of folks who when the president was elected in the transition did recommend him. You may disagree with his policies, but at least he has policies. So thats a lot different than some of the other people he was looking at. If iran comes back to the negotiating table on this and theyre able to change aspects of the deal to the president s favor, does he deserve credit . Its a great question. I mean, i think in some ways, sure, lets see. What happened today is we sent a message to our allies, and others around the world that everything is up for grabs and we cant necessarily be trusted. I think the message that former president barack obama put out just in terms of he was kind of trying to stay above the partisan fray and say its important to have continuity, even as administrations change, just to know you have a trusted partner to negotiate with. And i think we lost a lot of that today. And i also think that become to your earlier point, its interesting, because it felt like something that this felt like something the president wanted to do to make it on a campaign promise, like you said. It helped him politically in that sense, but it also made him look like it was more about that than it was about what was in other words, he was embarrassed saying barack obama. Right . Thats i think from his perspecti perspective, but it really looks embarrassed to the country. Undoing a signature piece of the obama legacy as hes been doing since hes taken office. Stay with us. Next, if its tuesday, someone is voting somewhere. Today its lots of somewheres. Its a big election day. Were tracking kornacki. Steve will break down the big races including does inmate turned candidate Don Blankenship have a chance in West Virginia. Thats next. What is it . The next big thing in food was once a little paper box. Now we can easily take out food from a restaurant. Lets stay in and bingewatch the snow. Genius. Now, the next big thing is the Capital One Savor card. Good choice babe. Oh, wait, hold on. Earn 3 cash back on dining, 2 on groceries, and 1 on all other purchases. 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And its also a story mail aabout people and while we make more ecommerce deliveries to homes than anyone else in the country, we never forget. That your business is our business the United States postal service. Priority you welcome back tonight. Cue the music. It is the first major midterm primary day of the year, and were in for a heck of a night. Oh, this music. Voting is underway in ohio, indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia. Republicans are fighting to get the chance to take on three Democratic Senators up for reelection in trump states this year. Theres a heated match on both sides for ohio governor. Some of these primaries have been pretty ugly. And they may also be the clearest sign yet of the partys full embrace of president trumps brand. As republicans are fighting each other over whos the trumpiest candidate. Yes. The trumpiest candidate. And where voters go today on a brutal fight within the gop in West Virginia could tell us a lot about where our country stands in this moment. Joining me now from the big board is who else but steve kornac kornacki . Steve, what will we learn tonight . We got suspense and mystery. A different unusual kind. West virginia right now, that looks like can blan kenship win this tonight . We dont have any polls that say hes got the lead that hes within striking distance. We have chatter and panic from republicans in washington and rival campaigns in West Virginia touting internal polls that they say show blankenship surging taking the lead, maybe pulling away. Well find out tonight if that is real. Look, in the era of politics we live in, surprises like this, i guess sometimes we shouldnt be shocked if blackenship pulls this out. The question is if he wins tonight, hes the republican candidate. What does that do for republicans . This is the state in 2016 that donald trump won by 42 points. This is one of the biggest bis ch bas bthe comments he made. Republicans will have to disown him. There might be trouble with money. Remember, it is a 4 2point trump state. The blankenship can overcome everything in the primary, can we say hes doomed . As republican as West Virginia, joe manchin as won here before. 2010, he was able to win. Look at the blue counties in West Virginia. So hes been able to survive these tides before. Bigger picture nationally, though is this. West virginia one of ten seats in the country that democrats hold right now are running in this year, but the state voted for donald trump. Manchin is one of them. Well find out the republican nominee in indiana again