Brian Williams examines the days top political stories and current politicalcampaign news. You need a recount. If that is correct and get what it is, the other thing we know is they have apparently under state law until august 24th to certify this election. Were sitting here on august 7th, weve got 17 days, more than two weeks until this has to be certified. If you have that tenday waiting period and then it comes under 0. 5, you know, youre short of that certification. So the law isnt putting a real lot of pressure on them here to get this certified. The law as we understand it is saying its going to be ten days before they can open these. Again, if im a betting man, if you come out here and say, kornacki, your life is on the line, who is going to win this thing, i would tell you balderson, he looks in much better position than oconnor to win this thing. Are you telling me are you sure hes going to win it by more than 0. 45 points and therefore avoid a recount, oh, no, i wouldnt tell you that at all. Recounts, the history of these things doesnt suggest oconnor
will overcome a deficit of that magnitude, but you have to have the recount and you have to see. Meanwhile of course these two candidates are both going to be on the ballot as their parties nominees for this district in november. The clock ticks, maybe were in november before we get a final answer and in two months they go to the polls again in this district. I would never ask you to bet your life, youre too good at what you dont. And we dont allow wagering. Steve kornacki, please dont move, i believe balderson is coming out onstage shortly. In the interim, Garrett Haake, our correspondent, is standing by at Danny Oconnors campaign headquarters. You saw, we heard from the candidate. Garrett, on nights like this they try to give neither a victory nor concession, though theyve got to hit certain markers. As weve mentioned, tonight is the night to pivot to november for both of these guys. Reporter yeah, brian, this was even more of an in tweener speech than you might otherwise
see in a race like this, effectively too close to call, because the race doesnt really stop tomorrow. Its just another marker. Now we have a quasi incumbent. Now were going to go to balderson. Very honored to represent the voters of the 12th district. I have so many people to thank tonight. Behind me right here, my john joshua, his fiance, hes getting married next april. My girlfriend melanie. I want to thank god. More importantly, my mom and dad who werent able to be here with us this evening. The thousands and thousands of volunteers that worked this grassroots campaign. Thank you all very, very much for all that you have done. The phone banking, the door knocking, all of it. Its been phenomenal. Its a great honor for me. I would like to thank President Trump. I would also like to take the time to thank Vice President pence for coming. And the big shoes that ill be filling, i wouldnt have got through a lot without him through this process. Congressman pat tiber. I would also like to take this opportunity and time to also thank chairman steve stiver, hes been a great asset to me through this process. Chairman, thank you. Theres many others. I could just keep going on and on. But tonight im going to promise to you that im going to work relentlessly, relentlessly for this 12th congressional district. America is on the right path and were going to keep it going that way. Its time to get to work. Over the next three months, im going to do everything i can to keep America Great again. So that when we welcome when we come back here in november, get ready, we got to come back here in november, i have earned your vote for a second time. Danny oconnor ran a hard race
and i look forward to campaigning against him again this fall. Thank you all so much for all your support. God bless you and god bless america. All right. Troy balderson. And lets repeat the way we opened the hour from our decision desk, and this is boston germane and important to everything were watching and trying to understand tonight, this race is too close to call. We will not be calling this race tonight. So look, theres a possibility youll see other News Organizations give estimates or the like. We are not. Thats where we stand, separated by 1,754. As Steve Kornacki has so ably laid out for us, we have something north of 3,400 socalled provisional ballots. We believe this is triggered the states own system to look back through all the votes cast. This is going to be a while. And lets not forget, they get to run again in november. Before we were interrupted by the republican candidate, we were talking to Garrett Haake at democratic headquarters. Garrett, you were talking about how it has to be half Victory Speech, half concession speech, although officially neither. Reporter thats right, Danny Oconnor leaving the door open to continue campaigning. The speech he gave sounded like his typical stump speech. He considers this a midway point in the race towards november. You didnt hear that from Troy Balderson at all. You heard much more of a traditional Victory Speech with the acknowledgement that hes got to do this all over again in november. The other big thing you heard from balderson, i think this is important, the big thank you to donald trump. You showed the president s tweet earlier, brian. I think you would be hard pressed to find a republican in
ohio who disagrees with the central premise, namely that it was donald trump who was able to carry Troy Balderson across the finish line here. He did not have a great last couple of days campaigning. But he did get a big boost from the president who in some part had to essentially remind Republican Voters that there was a special election happening this week and his agenda was on the line. Every republican strategist i talked to this week said that balderson needed that boost to juice his numbers in the more reliably Republican Voters who just werent huge Troy Balderson fans coming into this weekend. How about a word about this district . Our viewers along with us kind of fly into these districts where on nights like tonight theres no more important stretch of real estate in this whole country politically. But what an interesting part of the country it is. Youve got the terrific city of columbus, ohio, its northern reaches, then stretches the
countryside that look just like the american midwest. Reporter yeah, absolutely, brian. It is that mix of suburban, a little bit of the city of columbus, and a whole lot of rural, expansive ohio here that makes up this district. The democratic candidate here is 31 years old. In his life hes never been represented here by a democrat. The mix of voters here have always elected your probusiness, country club, Chamber Of Commerce types of republicans. John kasich represented this district before ultimately becoming governor of this state. Pat teaberry very much in the same model. Republicans voted for the donald trump party. The Operating Theory was do people who drive volvos and go to Country Clubs in those suburbs around the district, these welleducated, wealthier voters, are they really going to stick with donald trump and really stick with his agenda in the face of what weve seen over the last year and a half . The answer appeared to be yes on those moderate republicans, the swing county, and i dont want to get two steep into steves lane. Delaware county did stick with the republican here. But you did see this enormous turnout of democrats who have turned their back on this president from that suburban part of this. Brian, there are dozens of districts that look enough like this in numbovember that theyle picking this apart based on the lessons they learned tonight. Moral victories do not a House Majority make, they have to get across the finish line in these districts in november. Garrett haake, thanks, buddy, for your live reporting this evening, we really appreciate it. Our leadoff panel, Kimberly Atkins is back with us. Chief washington reporter for the boston herald. She, as you see, is on the hill. Here with us in new york, John Heilemann is back with us, long time political journalist, coauthor of both game change and double down. We did a little bit of both tonight in ohio. And El Eli Stokols is with us tonight. What do you think they make of a barn burner in this district in ohio during this time . I think there is some concern. Im talking and texting with some as we talk right now. There is a lot of concern. Look, dozens of districts that are up in the midterms are not as red as the ohio 12th. And the fact that this was such a squeaker, even if they come out with a w at the end of it, its quite an erosion of support for donald trump, who won that district by 12 points. I know the president is claiming victory tonight, and it might be the case that he energized
republicans enough just to squeak over, to squeak out a win here. But he also energized democrats in a way to really get out the vote. One thing that the president tweeted that is true is that its august, and its a time when a lot of people are on vacation, a lot of people arent thinking about politics. Democrats were still able to mobilize people, it sounds like particularly in the suburbs, which is going to be a crucial battleground. I think republicans have to be really concerned about that. All right, John Heilemann, here in our new york studios, as they like to ask during moments like this, what have we learned so far this evening . Im a big fan of the one is a win school, you win a race. It looks like the republican has run this race. Hats off for winning the race, because thats all that matters. We have to hasten to point out we cant declare at this point. Thats why i said it looks like. Absolutely. I got your modifier. The second thing im a Big Fan Of In analysis is context
and kimberly has provided some, and people on this network have been providing it all night. The fact that its a squeaker, a nailbiter, that were still too close to call at this hour, means that democrats should have a lot to be happy about here. Theyve looked at this race and said, you know, but for a couple of a few votes here, we could steal this race and we have 90 days to do that with these same candidates on the ballot. Democrats are right to feel good about what theyve done here tonight. This should not be a contested race let alone a race thats a razor thin margin. But again, republicans get the win and you cant take that away from him, assuming that things hold, they get this win, and, you know, you cant gainsay that. Eli stokols, i heard a noted political expert on another network tonight say the following. Quote, if democrats can do this well in a district 88 white, they will retake the house. And i think right now thats what i hear when i talk to analysts and consultants on both sides. At least when it comes to the house, the wind is at the democrats back, the numbers look good. If theyre running double digits ahead of where they ran in 2016, they are going to take the number of seats that they need to win a majority, most likely, better than 50 chance at this point. But i think, you know, you go back to the president s tweet, there have been a lot of Donald Trump Tweets that ring less true than what he said tonight. Yes, hes going to take a lot of credit for this. Thats obvious. But pollsters on the ground in it ohio have said that they saw better numbers, especially in those rural precincts, after he was there. Hes also right that it is an interesting time to vote. What he didnt get into in the tweet, but what he said on saturday and what hes been saying over the last couple of weeks, hes got the loudest megaphone in the country. When he can hang his hat on
democrats, just a couple of, it only takes two new york democrats to say abolish i. C. E. To remind voters who are on the face, you may not love me and everything, but here is where the Democratic Party is going these days, that is also effective. I know Danny Oconnor said im not going to Support Pelosi For Speaker but he bungled that in the interview with Chris Matthews and that wasnt convincing. Democrats have a win at their backs but it does take candidates and it does take some convincing some of these voters. I love my friend eli stokols, but i will say this, this Isnt The Biggest Lie the president has told on twitter. The governor of ohio, john kasich, who is the antitrump governor, who came in and cut an add for balderson in the last week of the race. But waited very late. Waited very late, but its
late in race this close. Who had more effect on this race at the end . Governor kasich by coming in at the end, a guy with a 65 Approval Rating in the state, or donald trump coming in, especially the way balderson performed in some of the republican suburbs where the president didnt help him, john kasich did. Who did balderson thank . He thanked the president , Vice President , congressman teaberry. He didnt mention john kasich. John is correct that the turnout may have been because he didnt just have the trump wing but he also had Kasich Vouching for him as well. S in this is a case where you have the two wings of the Republican Party pulling for him. The fact that he didnt come onstage and even say john kasichs name also tells you something. Hes afraid of the trump base. And again, youre not going to see this in many races where
republicans have the money to spend in a race that they should easily win where youre going to have outside democratic groups outspending them by five times and where youll get a republican governor with a 65 Approval Rating and the president of the United States on the same side. This is an unusual set of circumstances that barely pulled the republican across, if the results hold. We have part two of the trump tweet tonight on this race. It seems he wasnt done. Congratulations to Troy Balderson on a great win in ohio, a very special, i think that means special election, and important race. What has he ever done, brian . You said it seems like hes not done. When is he ever done . Thats true, it all seems like a continuation. Is there a vetted process for the campaigns the president will visit . We just learned he may make a
stop in texas for ted cruz, for example. There was some hubbub about who cleared the president to come into ohio, who requested it, who gave their permission in this case. But its also indisputable, he moved votes. Yeah, i mean, youre using words like vetting and permission as if it thats something that the as if thats something that the president ever goes by. It will be a matter of the president choosing his gut and getting into this. This, which hes calling a win and other republicans are calling a win tonight even though its still technically too close to call, will probably boost him in that effort. One thing you have to watch is there are still some contested primaries coming up between candidates who are more mainstream republicans and others who are very trumpy candidates who the president is going to be eager to back. So in this case you did see kasich and trump on the same
side, the same candidate, bringing those voters together. Thats going to be a big factory moving forward if the republicans are going to be able to create that unity, to get behind people, to get them over the finish line in november, if those fights are nasty, it will be a lot more difficult to do. Thats one of the many factors, including how nancy pelosi plays in these races. We still dont know the answer for sure yet. We have to take a closer look at how these precincts voted. President trump is definitely going to be on the Campaign Trail, whether the candidates hes backing like it or not. Hey, john, a moment for civics. So lets say, again, to take your point for the purposes of argument, the republican wins, lets say we dont have an official call for days. They become a sitting member of congress. You dont get to inherent the seniority of the republican youre replacing. You get bumped down, get terrible office space and not much of it. As a practical matter, you inherit much of the staff from the last member of congress, just so you can hit the ground running. You put some stuff on the walls, you get letterhead printed, but you never feel permanent. Twoyear terms, its tough to feel permanent because youve got to go out and sing for your supper in november. Look, both these guys said in their speeches tonight they have to get out there and start working again, have to start raising money again. And serve constituents. Theyll try to serve constituents, although in reality, after labor day, congress will probably go out of session. The house, people will go home. With as hard as they work . I know, shocking, right . The reality is, unless the president tries to engineer a Government Shutdown between now and november, the amount of legislative business that gets done on the house side is relatively limited. Youll be involved in the national discourse, the national dialogue. You might have some things to vote on, you wont be completely
useless, but essentially from now until the race is run again youll be engaged in the act of fulltime politics even though you need to pretend youre involved in other things like constituent service and occasionally filling that office in one of those three buildings on the house side. Eli stokols, how legitimately happy do you think the president is, assuming, again, at the end of this race, that the republican wins. We certainly wont know tonight. When donald trump gets anything that he can portray as a victory, he is a happy guy.