You cant pull up to trumps iowa rally tonight without seeing this massive billboard painting the way to yes, a super spreader event. Trump is plowing forward on breaking cdc guidelines, lying about the risk of covid and timing of a vaccine and repeating 2016 claims in that state and other key Battle Ground states from what were seeing on the ground and our reporting may not play as well right now. Democrats say many measurable signs show that some voters are now onto the con. Take a local paper noting trump is recycling his 2016 jobs message that may work less during the current recession while the president blows up these stimulus talks this week. And his key groups like suburban women turn on donald trump, thats according to internal polling obtained by politicpolitico politico Senior Citizens wavering on him. 3 more million ballots are in leading to 15 million ballots cast, which again is vital because it may lock in votes at a time when donald trump appears down. So if you follow all this stuff, you can see the facts of trumps record are hurting him but with this second debate cancelled this week, not everyone is following details which is important to keep in mind and is true in key states the candidates are visiting and for people that do read the paper. Take florida which so many obsess over. When the candidates are on the ground, i want to show you a fairly typical big city paper, the orlando sential. You have to squint and find it. We put it in red below the fold and thats with the nominee joe biden on the ground. Elections are won on reference and turnout. Popularity or preference really helps but turnout can matter more. Thats how an unpopular person like donald trump managed to eke out a win in the electoral collage in the face place. He never pulled high past 50 and finished with fewer supportering voting for him. Biden right now thinks from that evidence we showed you and showed you throughout the week they are up so they are laser focused on taking that preference and trying to get the turnout with growing states trump won in 2016. Big leads in some places above the margin of error and the question is can the democrats actually turn all those people out . I want to bring in someone who knows all about this polling guru, national pot llitical for super majority. Good evening to both of you. Hey, ari. Cornell, when you see the numbers up, what is the vital part of the campaigns in october as voting has begun in turning preference into turnout into victory . I think ari, couple things are really important in numbers that are structurally different than 2016. I want to make the point because a lot of people are nervous about 2016. Structurally this is different from 2016 this a couple different ways. One is that in all these polls that youve been showing, biden actually has a majority. And that is critical. I dont care if youre up five, six, seven points, if youre below a majority, crazy things can happen but in Battle Ground states and national polling, hes at a march joyty because they have Third Party Candidates there, as well. Hes still a majority. Youll remember, ari, hillary was always ahead in the force twoway chose to a majority but with the Third Party Candidates who turned out to be instrumental she was never a majority. She got nationally right along with what we saw with third party just, cornell, just to pause on that point you raise because this matters, youre pointing out sometimes the question the voters get on the phone is different than what they will see if they turn out. They get presented to and it can change the actual science of what were getting when they go in the ballot box and see three or more. Explain what is different now or why you think there is more optimism for biden compared to that. There was a protest vote. We understood that the Third Party Candidates were peeling off a notable segment of the electret for barack obama and nowhere is that more Crystal Clear than a state like wisconsin where you saw young people Third Party Voting and the russians had a big play in trying to direct some of those African American voters toward a Third Party Candidate here but even with Third Party Candidates now structurally biden has a majority, which is good and a stable majority and ari, this is unusual in that you cant go back in the last two or three decades and see where a democrat has held a double digit lead nationally embattled states for not one month, not two months, not three months but basically since june. Structurally this is very different and within the numbers is different because you look now, among College White women, the horse race is 2769 from the latest Washington Post poll. You know, so youre talking about structurally this lead and his support is very different than what we saw in Hillary Clinton 2016. Quite frankly, ari, im an obama guy but this is different than what we saw for barack obama in 2012 and to is certain extent, 2008. I want to bring in juanita. Are you saying the numbers support a bigger number for biden than what obama won . Dont tell barack obama but i think joe biden is going to beat him. Wow. It doesnt work when you say dont tell someone but youre on live tv. Is this live . Thats interesting. Again, i want to under score this because were following numbers. Well continue to report particularly the votes cast, the voter regular ratiistrationregi million votes. So we have an obama pollster saying tonight he is seeing the elements of a larger margin of victory for biden than obama. You own that, not me. Thats interesting coming from you cornell. Ill get a lot of grief. You just said it. Youre not taking it back, right . There is no backsies with this one. I wont let you forget this. I dont see it, but what i do see is absolutely the margins, nationally the margins in the Battle Ground states are undeniable but im an organizer. First and foremost, im always going to default to this is a turnout game about the people you get showing up. Im absolutely looking at that almost 15 million votes cast number and have optimism about what we can expect to see as we get closer to the election cycle and im also as a woman of t optimistic about women voting and turning out friends and families to make sure that biden gets over the finish line because what is interesting here is out of all the failures you mention about trump in your opening, ari, voters see that, feel that and are living that every single day. On top of all that enthusiasm for a biden harris ticket, they are in an on going pandemic that didnt have to be this way and economic recession were here because of trump and his administration. All fair points. The panel stays. I want to turn to the other new evidence in the race. There is talk about trumps loyal base. But there are some swing voters left in america. And more of them are turning away from trump in key places like these six states that back trump by three points total over hillary in 16. The New York Times is tracking specific voters that are changing their minds. They found some in both directions. So clinton voters have turned to trump and trumps 2016 voters, some of them are going for biden. If you dont personally conon that fits that bill, the New York Times is reporting they are out there. But leahere is what is really interesting. More switchers are going to biden. Among the subgroup they go for biden by over 40 points. While they are under 4 of registered voters, they deduct a vote from their preferred candidate and add one to the candidate they now support. More often biden. And in other likely voters who stayed home or were too young in 16, meaning the changing electret, well, bad news for trump. Biden there holding a 14 point lead that contributes to the sixpoint lead he has across those six key states. For all this, i want to bring in Jonathan Swan from axios and cornell and juanita. Jonathan, you look at the numbers. They cut against the conventional wisdom that nobody out there changes their mind in america anymore. But they do suggest that those with changing minds are changing away from trump. Thats true and what is also true, voters that dont like either candidate falling into bidens problem which is a huge problem for donald trump. Donald trump has problems across multiple areas and its not so much that trump has his supporters all in a huge amount, it fallen in certain areas to a certain extent, he hasnt expanded support since 2016. He just hasnt. You can look at 2016 voter, you compare the voter role and pew and validations to now. Trump is basically stable and made a few gains with hispanics but biden is over performing and doing terribly well with seniors. Stable or stable genius . I wouldnt [ laughter ] very narrowly to some polling data there, not to anything about the candidate. But its not that trump has fallen off a huge amount. He hasnt expanded and biden is doing much, much better than Hillary Clinton was across multiple demographics but with seniors. When i talked to Trump Campaign people as i do every single day, its the acceseniors problem t keep coming back to. They are tearing their hair out and dont know what to do about it and it doesnt help when the candidate, his strategy for going after seniors seems to repeatedly be besiasically oscillating between im a senior, i love you seniors and biden is demented and can barely get up and belongs in a nursing home, ha, ha, ha, here is a meme. Thats not the path to winning over senior voters in florida. Jonathan, you make a fair point that ha, ha, ha here is a meme to its morning in america and that does describe much of the trolling vibe in the campaign. Given your role as a reporter and talking to so many of your sources in washington, what do the people around trump, take the candidate out of this, what do the people around him think when they look at both bad signs and particularly in places they cant really lose, pennsylvania, midwest, losing some of their 16 coalition . Right. I find that trump orbit, Campaign People and white house people broadly fit into two groups. I have conversations with people who will privately say to me hes going to lose. It going to be really bad and, you know, im just trying to get through. This is just shocking and terrible and whatever. There are others who genuinely believe and its not spin because there are people ive known for awhile and not offering to spin. They will say in the same conversation all sorts of things negative about the president but genuinely believe that the pollsters are completely getting everything wrong but they modelled the wrong electret, that there are hundreds of thousands of white noncollege educated people out there in the upper midwest who didnt vote in 16 who will turn up not polls in hordes and youll be proven wrong and well throw mud in your face and there are those two camps and, you know, depending on who you talk to, you get a completely different version and the president himself gets these different views. Its not that he gets both of them because people arent really inclined to give him bad news so more than most hes getting the good news freflecte back to him and quite a distorted picture of the electret for most of his age. Not all of them but most of them. Yeah, well, thats one of the reasons that this is an interesting time and place to be because we have a very decorated successful pollster in the conversation so cornell, we take some of what jonathans sources, what jonathans sources are saying and in fairness, i just want to be precise here, it is true that the more that a poll requires a projection of a different turnout universe, the more room for error there is. The president ial approval polls that say all americans approve of the president or not, they have i would say lower error rates. They are saying people like or dont like this particular president. When you get to the turnout universe, it can change. So your views, again, not with standing your support for ocfor biden. Ari, not played partisan about this. Lets take a down numbers that you just gave. One is and let me say this, look, the electric right is the big part of it. Between 12 and the electret we had and obama captain and we knew we would have an electret that would look like 2008 and 2004. Their numbers were off and ours were spot on. Lets take the plus 14 among voter whose are new that werent part of the process in 16. If you take that, its kind of hard to see where theyre going to have a surge of new voters, the new voters that are surging are plus 14 for biden. The same argument in 2018 about, you know, the Supreme Court fight and how there was going to be this secret army of trump voters who rushed to the polls and made all the polling wrong in 2018. Im going to quote jayz here. I dont believe you need more people. They dont have they dont have any more they dont have any more people and that plus 14 number is problematic for republicans this way, ari, because if youre increasing the electret by 14 democrat, you got a lot of senate races and a lot of house races down ballot that are also going to be impacted because you have a bluer tide coming out and a lot of that tide isnt being picked up in the polling. Appreciate you going sean carter. You know the next lines from that, i dont believe you, you need more people, twinkle toes i seen you, i have the pictures. Basically shading mobb deep because they had a hard gangster reputation and did ballet. Does that lyric age well. There is nothing wrong with being a young man in new york and doing bell la ing bally, no i think ultimately there is a catch on the race and all of the hate that trump has spewed. A base for the entire term and now hes hitting that cap. His back is against the wall and what were going to see in turnouts is this expanded voter universe and again, majority of which is women who are going to vote him outcome november. Yeah, as you mentioned some of that data we presented earlier speaks to that. So some coalition blocks appe appearing to crumble but its a long way until election day. Thank you each. We fit in the shortest break of the night in 30 seconds and look tonight what judge barrett wouldnt answer in her big hearing. Also bad news for trump on the end of probes that he thought would support his c conspiracy theorietheories. Were back in 30 seconds. Ries were back in 30 seconds helps you redefine whats possible. Now. From the hospital shifting to remote patient care in just 48 hours. To the university moving hundreds of apps quickly to the cloud. Or the City GovernmentGoing Digital to keep Critical Services running. You are creating the future on the fly. And we are helping you do it. Vmware. Realize whats possible. The Trump Justice Department with a controversial probe of obama officials with no charges and so far no public report. It puts one more nail in the coffin of a discredited Conspiracy Theory that abused surveillance powers and shared their hidden identities of some people under surveillance sometimes called unmasking. Were talking about unmasking, yes, that was a big deal, horrible deal. Hes got to have the record for unmasking, maybe i do. You know, because were still looking. How many times did they unmask me . Lets find that out, too. They were spying on the campaign. They were not. And no reliable evidence supported that then. The news tonight is that trumps own attorney general failed to turn up anything to back this up. No quote substantive wrongdoing, no public report. Basically, thats what informed sources tell the Washington Post, which has trump upset worrying he might not keep barr on the job. Im not happy with all of the evidence i have, i can tell you that. Im not happy. Fact check. True. Trumps unhappy with the evidence that debunks those prior false claims. Hes unhappy that even under bill barrs pressure, clearly there are still people at the Justice Department that wont just violate their oath of office to target and charge political opponents without evidence. This whole constpiracy theory said they were unmasking and bill barr himself as an operative that didnt have the goods even if he wanted to trap obama officials. Bringing to mind some wisdom from the trap itself as barrs targets evaded his plot. Future put it best, mask on, mask off, aint no way we call the play, we didnt come to play. Joining us now is neal, former acting solicitor general. Did this blow up in bill barrs face . Absolutely. 100 , ari. Its extraordinary to see a sitting president covering north korea, there is nothing wrong and investigations with activities. My only point is you should have the same standards, if you think obama and biden are suspicious with the investigation should have the same yardstick for trump and his family but of course, they dont and the problem for barr and trump is that their insinuations about biden have totally failed and they had a bar zillion apples. Trump had sessions look into this and had barr look into this and the Inspector General look into this and the Senate Intelligence committees look into this and john bash look into it and at the end, trump is as emptyhanded as a student who attended trump university. Hes got to use the technical, legal term squat. Squat. This is important because we know the drill and i think viewers are accustomed to it. There is a lot of noise and furry and fire early on. Bill barr using the word spy under oath when he was testifying to congress. Trump doing this. It gets the kind of where there is smoke, there is fire treatment in certain media and certain irresponsible folks and when it goes away, it goes away this is a huge story. Precisely because people need to know this. I want to for your analysis point out what James Clapper said. I was never interviewed by anyone in the doj about unmasking and issued by william barr to please donald trump. Thats the head of the cia. This is a bad thing according to him and this evidence even if they ultimately found nothing because he is making the point that this was all ginned up in a way to do th