Together today. And welcome to today on this sunday morning. Im erica hill. Glad to have you with us. Im craig melvin with dylan dreyer. Weather. At home. It is, as you put it, iowa yeah. I like to make it a little iowa caucus eve. Thats our top story. Were now just about 35 hours away from first caucuses. This morning, there is new polling from the Des Moines Register and thats often a good indicator of how the caucuses go in that state. Donald trump has five points polling. Hillary clinton three points ahead of Bernie Sanders. Put in the margin of error, theyre basically neck and neck. We begin with Halle Jackson who is covering the republican race from des moines. Hallie, good morning. Good morning, erica. Represents a 15 point turn around since december. But nearly half of likely republican caucusgoers say even now they could still be convinced to change their minds. And iff they do, it is ted cruz who would stand to benefit the most. Flying high for now it is donald trump on top the day before the caucuses in iowa. Donald j. Trump reporter where the latest poll shows he leads ted cruz by five points. The numbers were so good for me, which im happy about. Reporter but trumps acknowledging turnout will matter more monday night. It all doesnt matter if you dont caucus on monday. Reporter his closest rival here, ted cruz, says he has volunteers making 20,000 phone calls to potential caucusgoers. Were just wanting to know if we can count on you to caucus for cruz on monday. Reporter even as cruz slid recently, a sign that trumps attacks on him may be working. The most effective one, according to new polling, not on he borrowed a lot of money as you know from Goldman Sachs and from citibank. Reporter but that cruz failed to disclose his lns from big banks. Trump has vulnerabilityies too, like his support for eminent domain. Fancy terms for politicians like trump. This race is a dead heat. It is neck and neck. Now it is effectively a twoman race. Reporter marco rubio would beg to differ. Well do well here and we look forward right after were done here to get to New Hampshire and working there as well. Reporter his campaign, appearing pleased with rubios third place poll position, ahead of the other establishment candidates in iowa, even as rubio downplays talk he could surprise with a second place finish. On his bus, describing a sense of urgency as the countdown to the caucuses gets closer. Im confident that when this process is finished, and the delegates are counted, were going to have more than half the delegates and well be the reporter this morning, donald trump is taking to twitter to hit ted cruz for mailers the campaign sent out with the words voting violation on them, something cruz was scolded for by the iowa secretary of state. But the Cruz Campaign points out these mailers are a common practice to get people out to the caucus, similar to one used in the past. The bottom line about all of this, guys, both campaigns know turnout will be keat tothe key to winning tomorrow night. Hallie jackson, thank you. To democrats now where the race is so apparently so close no one is sure what will happen tomorrow. Kristen welker has more on that. Good morning. Reporter craig, good morning to you. Thats right, the democratic race is still anyones to win in iowa. Secretary clinton has a slight lead, but shes not taking anything for granted and Bernie Sanders isnt letting up. The Democratic Candidates crisscrossing iowa late into the night on saturday, with just hours to go. For Hillary Clinton, it was all i am so proud to support my mom. She is the single best changemaker i have ever known. Reporter husband bill and daughter chelsea helping to deliver the final pitch. Thank you, bill. Thank you, chelsea. Reporter clinton is entering the homestretch with a boost, saturdays Des Moines Register bloomberg poll shows her with a slim lead over Bernie Sanders, 45 to 42 . The New York Times endorsed her, calling her one of the most broadly and deeply qualified president ial candidates in modern history. I hope that well be able to persuade you to join us to make progress for our country reporter earlier in the day, clinton tried to turn the page after the state department determined 22 emails from the former secretary of states private server were top secret. Clinton telling nbc news, she didnt generate them. This is an inner agency dispute. And it is playing out in public reporter senator sanders is still riding a wave of insurgent excitement, buoyed by young voters who overwhelmingly support him. People said it was a fringe campaign. Doesnt look like a fringe campaign tonight reporter and now, the battle being waged in campaign war rooms. Clinton and sanders have both built up armies of volunteers, ready to fight, determined to win. I havent seen this excitement in so long. There has to be something about this crazy old guy, right . Were here to help democrats and to hopefully get Hillary Clinton elected president. Reporter now, senator sanders could win iowa if young voters turn out in force as they did in 2008 for then senator barack obama. He won that group here by a margin of about 4 to 1. Sanders and clinton have another relentless day of campaigning night. Craig . Kristen welker in des moines. Thank you. Iowa this morning. Chuck, good morning. Good morning, erica. There is so much talk about donald trump. We see this new polling that came out last night, but the big unknown, we keep talking about, is how many people will actually show up. We have been hearing from our reporters on the ground that Trump Campaign now making this push to remind people at rallies how to register and how to vote. Is there a sense that is having an impact . Well, wee dont know. We havent seen the evidence of somehow an upturn in voter registration. On either side. Look, high voter turnouts are good for Bernie Sanders for the democrats and trump with the republicans. But ive talked to first time caucusgoers and i understand why the other campaigns are skeptical. The Cruz Campaign believes theyre going to win and believes theyre still ahead because theyre very skeptical of the first time caw causeucusgoers. I talked to them. Some of them have not voted in any election in 20 years. So thats why the skepticism is there. You think, boy, are they going to get up, go through this process, make sure they get to you have to get there at a specific time or they lock the door and you cant get in. So trumps whole reliance is on a bunch of people, who have never done this before. Chuck, turning to the democrats now, what does this second place finish for Bernie Sanders in iowa mean for his campaign moving forward . I think it means he will be a tough challenger for Hillary Clinton, but hard to imagine how he could ever overtake her. I think you cant sort of make the democratic nomination fight a true one on one battle that is neck and neck the whole time if he cant knock her off here. Because if he cant beat her here, then outside of New Hampshire, where else is he going to beat her . If hes going to start making inroads in south carolina, inroads in nevada, inroads in other states, hes got to get democrats convinced that oh, wow, he pulled an upset there in iowa. He came from out of nowhere there. New hampshire is one thing. Thats his next door state. It could catapult him. It is a must win for sanders. What is the headline Tuesday Morning . What are we talking about Tuesday Morning after the caucuses are over . Well, if its look, well be talking about donald trump. Lets be realistic. Everything is it is Donald Trumps world, were just lucky to live in it sometimes. It will be about whether trumps for real or not, craig. If he wins, its panic time for real for the republican establishment because i think hes going to be very hard to stop. But if he loses, then all of a sudden that seed of doubt is planted into whether the trump phenomenon was all a mirage. So much to look forward to, right . It will be a busy 35 hours or so. Chuck, thanks. 35 hours. 35. Who is counting . You got it. Well have more well look for more f fm you this morning on meet the press. Chucks guests this morning and Bernie Sanders. And today has you covered on caucus day. Well be live from iowa tomorrow morning. Dylan, the other headline that could be happening on Tuesday Morning is weather, snow in iowa. It could be a blizzard on tuesday. That could force some interesting runins at the airport tuesday. A lot of people could get stuck starting monday night. As we go through the day on monday, we are going to see just the increase in clouds. Temperatures across the state will be running in the upper 30s, lower 40s. Everything is fine. Then we get into monday night, and tuesday. Thats when the blizzard warning kicks in. Notice this southeast part of this state, not under the blizzard warnings, thats where well see some rain. If you head south, you should be able to still make any sort of flights. If youre in the des moines area anywhere across central and northern iowa, we are looking at very gusty winds, perhaps as much as 9 to 12 inches of snow. Waterloo looks like an area where well see the jackpot. So we are certainly going to see pretty interesting conditions especially as we go into monday night and tuesday. Where we are going to see our worst conditions. All right. As far as snow is concerned. Dylan, thanks. To california, where three dangerous criminals are now back in jail after they escaped last week. The final two escapees captured saturday, one day after their fellow inmate turned himself into police. Nbcs Steve Patterson is outside that jail with more on how it all went down. Steve, good morning. Reporter craig, for eight days those escaped inmates managed to stay ahead at least one step ahead of more than a dozen Law Enforcement departments in the state of california. But it only took the quick thinking of one citizen in San Francisco to alert police and bring them down. For Law Enforcement in california, it was like waking up from a bad dream. Sheriff one of the sheriffs worst nightmares. Reporter saturday after a week of anxiety, a chance to exhale. I can say this morning that sigh of relief. Reporter all three men who broke out of this Orange County jail back in custody. Saturday morning, Hossein Nayeri and Jonathan Tieu captured 400 miles away in this San Francisco parking lot. Police credited the quick thinking of a bystander who spotted this stolen van and alerted officers. As police approached, nayeri fled on foot, but didnt get far. He was apprehended shortly after, without further incident. Reporter police found tieu hiding inside the van with 380 rounds of ammunition. It was clear tos that these people were armed and dangerous. Reporter a day earlier, bac tien duong turned himself in. Make sure he get caught safely with nobody getting hurt. Reporter but investigators zeroed in on nayeri as the possible mastermind. Police say despite speaking english, he enrolled in an english as a second language class and befriended teacher she was arrested thursday being held on suspicion she provided maps showing images of the jails rooftop that may have helped the men escape. We know it was much closer, much more personal than it should havav been. Reporter ravaghis neighbors say they cant believe it. It was quite shocking to see it. Reporter now, the three inmates and the teacher may find themselves on the same side of the law, and behind bars. Officials with the Sheriffs Department here say there hasnt been a jail break in more than 30 years. And that they have already made significant improvements to the jails security system. Meanwhile, those inmates captured this weekend expected to be back here in Orange County later on this morning. Craig . Steve patterson for us this morning in santa ana, california, thank you. In denver, a fight between rival biker gangs turned into a deadly brawl outside the colorado motorcycle expo. One person was shot and killed. Others suffered gunshot wounds. As the violence escalated. Eyewitnesses described dozens of people fighting and just before the gunfire began. Police say theyre keeping a heavy presence at the hospital where the injured are being treated to prevent any further confrontations. A freshman at Virginia Tech is now charged with murder in the death of a 13yearold girl. 18yearold david eisenhauer, an engineering student, is in police custody, charged with murder after the remains of Nicole Lovell were found in north carolina. The young liver transplant recipient was last seen wednesday night when her family discovered she may have left her home without her medication. It was a record win at the Australian Open this morning for the top man in tennis. Novak djokovic demolished andy murray in straight sets, clinching the championship with a final ace. This was the sixth Australian Open win for djokovic, tying a titles. Dylan is back with the check of the rest of the countrys forecast the blizzard in iowa starts in the southwest. Were seeing gusty winds i spun too soon there. The board wasnt there. It is starting with very gusty winds out in southern california, l. A. Could see gusts up near 50 to 60 miles per hour, and then well see the snow spread into the rockies. So because of that, we do have winter storm warnings in effect in this dark shade of blue here. Winter weather advisories in yellow across central nevada and then the winter storm watches will start to build into the plains. Again, we are looking for about 1 to 2 feet of snow in the rockies. We should see about 8nches or so in iowa monday night and tuesday. But the gusty winds will make for the blizzard conditions. Thats going to be the trouble spot today. We also have a little disturbance moving through the great lakes that will trigger some showers, some isolated snow get above freezing, so and thats your latest forecast. Good . Im good now. Im sitting. Thank you, dylan dreyer. Up next, a huge night for some of the years hottest actors and movies. Well tell you who took home the Screen Actors Guild awards and how diversity won the night. Right after this. Mom, dad. Son. 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The nicoderm cq patch, with unique extended release technology, helps prevent the urge to smoke all day. I want this time to be my last time. Thats why i choose nicoderm cq. Make delicious recipes that are lighter in calories and added sugar when you use splenda no calorie sweetener. Think sugar, use splenda look at this sweet face. So sweet. Ok, were going to need a napkin grilled chicken andbushs baked beans. Mom totally forgot to give us vegetables. I know. Its awesome. Booyah. Blow it up. Bushs baked beans. Slow cooked according to our secret family recipe with a hint of sweetness. Theyre the vegetable kids love. Theyre totally eating their vegetables. Booyah. Blow it up. Whaaat . Bushs baked beans. The veggie kids love. Try our newest flavor, asian bbq. The stars were out in force last night for the Screen Actors Guild awards. A lot of glitz, a lot of glamour. And a lot of diversity and lots of mentions of diversity. One of the biggest headlines to come from the evening, the celebration of that diversity from the nominees to the big winners themselves. But the s. A. G. Awards also often known as a good indicator for what happens at the oscars. Spotlight finally in the spotlight with one of the biggest honors at the 22nd annual s. A. G. Awards for ensemble cast. No way. Reporter but after weeks of criticism for all the right oscar nominations, diversity was the real winner of the night. Look at this stage. This is what we talk about had we talk about diversity. Reporter evident in the faces of the winners. Oh, my god, im in shock right now thank you so much reporter viola davis for how to get away with murder. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to diverse tv. Reporter beasts of no nation was the film that garnered most oscar snub related buzz, idris elba walking away with not one, but two awards. I dont know what to say tonight. Like two wins in one night, thats incredible. Reporter the other for his role in the tv series lufa. Lets all calm down. Reporter there were laughs too. Reigning queens of comedy tina fey and amy poehler paid tribute to carol burnett. Im so g gd we had this time together. Thank you. Reporter saving a few laughs for the youngest actor on stage, jacob trimblett. I can still remember the first time i got nominated for a s. A. G. Award. Reporter the s. A. G. After awards have a good track record actress at the academy awards. It could mean gold for Leonardo Dicaprio who won for the revenant. Im humbled by this because it comes from all of you