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For the democratic candidate. even if hispanics are coming out, that's not a seal for hillary. a vote cast on election day is worth the same as an early vote. with some of the cutbacks in the alrea early vote hours, say in north carolina, we can't exactly know how the electorate is going to change too much with african-americans. it wouldn't be surprised if turnout was down given of course that barack obama was the first major party nominee who was black. >> will both of you agree this will get resolves earlier rather than later on tuesday, because some of the crucial states are in the eastern...

Than later on tuesday, because some of the crucial states are in the eastern time zone. if she wins north carolina, it's over. if she wins florida, it's over, right? i'm going to ask you now, i am going to go with sam wang, 312. you must have an electoral vote count that you have figured out. >> i'll go with 318. >> okay. >> 322. >> higher. all right. so you think that despite the fact that your models are less could be if i dent of a hillary victory -- >> i don't think the main difference between the models is how far clinton is ahead. the difference is how far the results could differ from o...

Obama was behind in north carolina and florida. clinton leads. so let's take a look at how that all plays out. again, she's already at 268. democrats think she's doing very well in the early voting. they think this is enough, right here, to put hillary clinton over the top. they think they'll win nevada based on the early voting. they think that will do it right there. but can she go higher? she sure can if she can win florida, north carolina, and they believe they're in play in new hampshire. what would that math look like? that's a big one, that's a medium one, and that's a small one. if hil...

Well in the early voting. they think this is enough, right here, to put hillary clinton over the top. they think they'll win nevada based on the early voting. they think that will do it right there. but can she go higher? she sure can if she can win florida, north carolina, and they believe they're in play in new hampshire. what would that math look like? that's a big one, that's a medium one, and that's a small one. if hillary clinton can win those three, that would get her up to 322. that's in the ballpark of where the president was four years ago. is that a guarantee? absolutely not. donald...

Winning in indiana where his running mate mike pence is from but only by four points. that is a very conservative state. tells you how the republican ticket is struggling. clinton is leading in north carolina. clinton is leading in new hampshire. so you switch maps and watch how it plays out. if the election is today we already have clinton at 272. trump is not there. look at the match. clinton leads in nevada. clinton leads in florida. clinton leads in north carolina. trump maybe leads in only ohio of the battleground states. if it played a out like that 322 to 214. a blow out. how could trum...