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So far, what we know so far is at least in the past those mail-in ballots have been even more lopsided in joe biden's favor. we don't know if that will continue. we know as we count them there's a mathematical possibility he can overcome that, which again, in every one of these states, the biden campaign wants to count them all here, the trump campaign wants to count them here. >> count the votes, we'll be patient. we have a key race alert right now. jo john, take a look at this. georgia right now. trump's lead has shrunk to 47,000 votes. 49.9%. biden has 48.9%. georgia, 16 electoral votes, it...

Trump has 344,000-vote lead over biden, 55.9%-42.7%. in wisconsin 40% of the estimated vote is in. trump has a narrow lead. 21,000-vote lead over biden, 49.9%-48.4%. in georgia, 59% of the estimated vote is in, trump seems to have comfortable 372,000 vote lead over biden, 55.4% to 43.4%. getting more key race alerts. arizona right now. 75% of the vote is in, biden has 208,000 vote lead. arizona. 53.7%, 45%. minnesota, 38% of the vote in, biden seems to have comfortable 290,000 vote lead over trump in minnesota. iowa, 42% of the estimated vote in, biden has 112,000 vote lead

With younger voters, voters of color, and it will take a lot of this. >> i love me some of those older voters, though. they are just fantastic and reliable. >> i do, too. >> i love the older voters, too. we love both. and we're seeing a wide swath of the snowbirds that are slightly older. >> but bernie also does -- he doesn't just have young voters, right? if you look at the last time around where he was neck and neck with hillary, he didn't do that just winning young voters. he was winning voters that were working class people and, you know, throughout the state. so i think that there is this...

Front-runner in the state now. he is up 16 percentage points since september. he's blowing past joe biden, elizabeth warren, bernie sanders. let me bring in national political correspondent, steve kornacki. is this an instance of maybe what happens in iowa stays in iowa? >> that's one of the questions, would this be bigger than iowa. also another question, is he peaking too soon. this is what it looks like on the ground in iowa right now if you picked up the biggest newspaper in the state on sunday. you put the poll result there, 9 point lead now in the signature poll out in iowa, the des moin...

That could not be more clear. those numbers have to change dramatically and quickly for donald trump to have a reasonable chance to win the next election. and there is nothing on the political horizon that likely to improve those numbers. donald trump ran for president claiming he would revive manufacturing in america when manufacturing was already doing reasonably well. today "the washington post" reports that thanks to donald trump's trade war, that he is losing. the u.s. manufacturing purchases index fell to 49.9 in august from 50.4 in july. that is the first time that that particular close...