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The headwinds of trumpism too much even for him in wisconsin. steve, i want you to show us a chart if you will, before the election everybody -- before every election they like to talk about congressional ballot tests and consumer confidence, there's really no better correlation between the gains and losses by the president's party. can you show us how that measurement predicts these midterms or not? >> i can. with respect to your question, joe, the fact is, we showed some of these charts before the election. consumer confidence, unemployment you don't see a high correlation of president under...

And other stories like this that looked to a lot of americans. so here is what we have now. the large advantage democrats held in enthusiasm has all but ee.evaporated. 80% of republicans now say the october election is very important. that is two points shy of the democrats who saw their enthusiasm tick up only slightly with the prior poll. there you have it. that's just over the last month or so. >> and, willie, we've said it time and time again on this show, when people do generic ballot tests, it's not the generic ballot tests that i look at, that a lot of other people look at going into mi...

Again we always look at the generic ballot tests for congress. >> uh-huh. >> that tells one part of the story. the bigger part of the story, because voting is down during these mid terms is intensity. democrats are winning on the voter intensity side. that may be -- just like there was a hidden vote for donald trump in 2016 in some areas, i suspect at the end of the day a lot of these close races if they stay close to the very end you are going the see voter intensity make a big difference on election day for a lot of democrats. >> somebody i will be saying a lot. we shall see. coming up, hu...

Democrats 10 points ahead. >> so, willie, while i don't usually look at the generic ballot test, you look, you know, more at the intensity. that's what really matters. and the democrats have that, as well. but i always look at trend lines. and my gosh, the trend lines for the republicans and these generic ballot tests have completely collapsed. remember, they were crowing again in the spring, it's been closed, you live for -- yeah, whatever. here we are. those are massive numbers. >> yeah. how about the woman number. that's the one i look at, a 20 point spread for democratic women there. that ...

Ballot tests, those are important. but it comes down to the intensity because people are far less likely to vote in mid-term elections than they are in presidential elections, and if you're somebody who just voted for donald trump because you didn't like hillary clinton or because you don't like nancy pelosi or you don't like the "new york times" or you don't like "morning joe" or because you don't like this or you don't like that, that doesn't drive you to go vote in an election. you have to be driven by candidate and liking a candidate and liking a president and right now i think that's prob...