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Yes again, US economic growth is falling… Consumer sentiment plummets to near-decade low – Investment Watch

Yes again, US economic growth is falling… Consumer sentiment plummets to near-decade low – Investment Watch
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Largest Negative Term Premium Since At Least 2007 – Investment Watch


On Thursday, the 10 year bond yield had a very large spike. It went up 14.4 basis points to 1.525% which is close to where it was before the pandemic. As you can see from the chart below, there was an intraday spike which is a big deal given how well followed/traded this asset is. Ignoring this gap up, no one should be surprised by the increase in the past few weeks. Now that it’s clear the pandemic is near its close, why shouldn’t the 10 year yield get back to where it was prior to the crisis? In fact, growth and inflation should be above normal because of all the fiscal and monetary stimulus in the past year. The 10 year yield can easily go to 2% later this year.

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Assets protecting against inflation bugaboo on track to record best gains since 2011


Assets protecting against inflation bugaboo on track to record best gains since 2011
Published: Dec. 29, 2020 at 1:58 p.m. ET
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Another year, another double-digit percentage annual gain for U.S. Treasury inflation-protected securities.
That’s a rare feat for a stodgy asset class often considered the province of pensioners fearful of the ravages of higher prices for food, clothes, rent and gas.
Though inflation has struggled to make a return to the U.S. economy, especially after this year’s recession in the wake of the coronarvirus pandemic, expectations for economic growth to normalize next year has bolstered the popularity of inflation-linked assets, especially as the Federal Reserve suggests its more willing to keep interest rates low even if inflation briefly overshoots the central bank’s target.

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Here's why low bond market volatility won't 'budge from abysmal levels'


Here’s why low bond market volatility won’t ‘budge from abysmal levels’
Published: Dec. 23, 2020 at 2:11 p.m. ET
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MarketWatch photo illustration/iStockphoto|, St. Louis Fed
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Since breaking out to its highest levels in months, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has plodded along in a tight range, struggling to break through the significant 1% mark.
The reluctance of the bond market to succumb to the hype around the ‘reflation’ trade and breathe some volatility back into long-dated Treasurys reflects the Federal Reserve’s clear willingness to keep up its easy monetary policy in order to support a U.S. economy dragging itself out of the mire resulting from the coronavirus pandemic.

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