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Largest Negative Term Premium Since At Least 2007 – Investment Watch

On Thursday, the 10 year bond yield had a very large spike. It went up 14.4 basis points to 1.525% which is close to where it was before the pandemic. As you can see from the chart below, there was an intraday spike which is a big deal given how well followed/traded this asset is. Ignoring this gap up, no one should be surprised by the increase in the past few weeks. Now that it’s clear the pandemic is near its close, why shouldn’t the 10 year yield get back to where it was prior to the crisis? In fact, growth and inflation should be above normal because of all the fiscal and monetary stimulus in the past year. The 10 year yield can easily go to 2% later this year.

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