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but with the crisis rattling the banking industry, could that move be put on hold or shelved? let's speak to dr salomon fiedler, economist at berenberg private bank. fellow to you. what expecting ecb to do today? we fellow to you. what expecting ecb to do today?— fellow to you. what expecting ecb to do today? we think it is still most _ ecb to do today? we think it is still most likely _ ecb to do today? we think it is still most likely it _ ecb to do today? we think it is still most likely it will - ecb to do today? we think it is still most likely it will go - still most likely it will go ahead with the 15 basis point move. they have talked about it so much over the last couple of months that to go back on that would put further strain on their credibility and furthermore, the ecb is behind the curve on inflation so they will publish new forecasts today at the same time as the interest rate decision, but still, even though they would probably adjust inflation forecast down a bit. this year
expectations growing, implying americans are getting more worried about the economic picture. as to the future direction of travel officials expect rates could reach 3.a% by the end of this year. expect rates could reach 3.496 by the end of this year.- by the end of this year. that was new _ by the end of this year. that was new york. _ attention now shifts to the city of london, where the bank of england makes its own decision on interest rates in a few hours' time. it's expected to raise borrowing costs again to try and control soaring inflation — they're currently at 1%. but it faces a dilemma, with the uk economy on the brink of recession after it shrank in march and april. kallum pickering is senior economist at berenberg private bank here in london. let's talk about the uk and compare it with what's happening in the united states. first the bank of england what you think it will announce today? you think it will announce toda ? ~ you think it will announce toda? ~ , today? the bank will probably announce _ today? the bank will probably announce a — today? the bank will probably announce a 25 _
for more financial help from the government. in the next couple of hours we will get official uk growth figures for the first three months of the year — they are expected to show a sharp slowdown. kallum pickering is senior economist at berenberg private bank. there's a danger of a negative chain reaction of ever—decreasing demand leading to a long—term depression — technically — can a governme stop a recession? i think that dramatically overstates the situation the uk is facing. it is a supply side problem. due to china zero covered policy, the war in ukraine etc. the recovery from covid. we are seeing consumers reacting to high prices. the
trying to perform a delicate balancing act moving fast enough to keep a lid on runaway inflation but not so fast tips the world �*s largest economy into recession. all eyes now turn to other central banks around the world, who find themselves facing similar dilemmas. michelle fleury, bbc news, new york. as we heard from michelle there, all eyes are now on the world's other top central banks. in a few hours time, the bank of england is expected to follow suit — raising rates by a quarter of a percentage point. it would take uk borrowing costs back to where they were before the pandemic. kallum pickering is senior economist at berenberg private bank here in london. welcome to the programme. before we look at the bank of england, whose meeting is later today, give us your thoughts on the federal reserve, we were