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When national security issues become more and more relevant, like in paris, san bernardino, look at the threats going on for new year's eve, experience, on-the-job training, donald trump, the voters in the early states might say, i don't know if he has what it takes to be the commander in chief. so it's not inevitable that he could win. >> i know of the infrastructure in place, anything could happen. the bradley effect goes both ways. it's been showing their support for fear of retribution for fear from others and there's a possibility for a sland slide. >> at the same time, everybody right no...

Something. >> i think redemption matters and this is an old story. the fact that the left have to trump up mediocre and ridiculous stories like this this proves to me that racism in america is not as prevalent as people would like to believe and i do believe this is going to lead to black racism fatigue in 2016. if you consider the bradley effect in 1982 where a bunch of white voters said they were going to vote for bradley and stay home. >> apples and oranges, elisabeth, with how black people vote and paula deen -- >> excuse me i didn't interrupt you. >> a lot of people talking about this tod...

Call but bill the ay any t cm@u pa that's issue of intensity and how is mitt romney performing against the margins in2004. 2008 isn't the2004d very well in the you remember back he part of the that mitt romney did he was and over again. but if he has a strong performance in the panhandle, we'll have a good @xindication i think, about republican enthusiasm in otherts. nelson had a terrible debate. so much for debates. >>right. >> you know what's pcwowerful watching? the numbersnsioning there hasn't been o-bheinal power. no surprises yet. the fact that casey is goodu6 the fact that warren is ahe...

Campaign. which one is you, ed? >> i'm the fat guy in the middle. megyn: you look great. don't laugh, joe we have one for you, too. that was tom bradley, 1981. megyn: everybody talks about the bradley effect. >> all three exit polls said we won the governorship. i remember watching on tv our chairman being asked on the floor what it felt like to be the new chief of staff to the governor of california. that was one where no one told him. we knew -- we were looking at returns coming in over the computer, and we saw it dwindling away. he wasn't up. i was the one who had to tell him because the to...

Wisconsin and either iowa or new hampshire. >> he will win iowa, wisconsin and colorado. no question. the minimum elect tore really votes he has and he has a shot at ohio and pennsylvania. >> i was there all weekend. i can make your argument and that is the scott walker recall. >> yeah! >> no, no, but that's a big thing. but you look at the policy, it's very tight. it's very -- >> screw the policy. give me a break. the. >> you have to look at them. >> the polls basically are these states, it's a tie. it's a tie. whenever you have a tie, a, the republican win. whenever you have a tie totally se...