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Below 49% went on to lose the iowa caucuses. they didn't win. didn't win the nomination. so warren's 22%, that's good. ahead right now, but the fact based upon history that's far from a guarantee you're going to go on to win iowa let alone the nomination. so all this sort of points to me. we have a wide open race. it's very, very messy. any of those top four, sanders, warren, biden or buttigieg could win iowa. i wouldn't be surprised if someone not in the top four, someone like klobuchar, actually goes on to win. so a very wide open picture with three months to go. >> all right. the numbers ja...

Buttigieg in the high teen, around 15 to 20% and on iowa, and it's different from the national picture and that of course is a big deal because obviously iowa leads off the primary calendar. but it's also an indication that buttigieg does well with white voters and they are plentiful in iowa versus nationally. >> what does history say about leaders in the iowa poll iing? >> yeah, i think this is rather important. so i went back and looked at all the polling leaders at this general point, late october, early november at this point on both the democratic and republican side. and i think there ar...

Proposes something different. care for all who want it. we're seeing him talk about his ability to bring people together and talking about drawing sharper contrast with his competitors. he's talking about generational change, noting he's the young candidate in the race now, but saying to voters if there were looking for an alternative to joe biden or warren, he's the person who could potentially do that and one more thing, fred, here in iowa, we're hear iing a lot more from buttigieg about barack obama. he's drawing those comparisons, really leaning into them because in 2008, when barack obama...

Last four democratic nominations. every one in this century. the winner of iowa has gone on to win even when new hampshire preferred somebody else. iowa is a 90% white electorate. new hampshire is. the overall democratic primary electorate is only 60% white and what's happening this year is that to a greater extent than in the, white voters are diverging from african-american voters. you have a particularly warren and buttigieg are very strong among those college educated white voters and you can win them by being strong educated white voters but you can't win south carolina that way. you need...