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Frontiers | Systematic Triggering of Large Earthquakes by Karst Water Recharge: Statistical Evidence in Northeastern Italy


Systematic Triggering of Large Earthquakes by Karst Water Recharge: Statistical Evidence in Northeastern Italy
National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics – OGS, Udine, Italy
It is known that surface water accumulation by natural or anthropic causes like precipitation and reservoir impoundment can trigger earthquakes. The phenomenon is amplified and sped up in karst areas, where fracture systems can store large quantities of water and facilitate its percolation to seismogenic depths, increasing both elastic stress and pore pressure on pre-existent faults. The present work explored the possibility that this mechanism had systematically triggered major earthquakes in northeastern Italy, where seismicity is concentrated along the pre-Alpine thrust belt, characterized by the alignment of a series of karst massifs. The time occurrence of damaging and destructive earthquakes (moment magnitude Mw between 4.8 and 6.4) since 1901 was compared with the evolution of t ....

United States , United Kingdom , Friuli Venezia Giulia , Italy General , Gran Sasso , Baden Wüberg , Gustav Fischer Verlag , Tel Hariri , B Frenzel Stutgart , Nevee Valanghe , Geofisicae Vulcanologia , Europe Matthews , Regione Veneto , Carla Barnaba , Una Rinascita , Rapporto Conclusivo , Geografiska Annaler , Fabiana Zandonai , Terremoti Italiani , Speleologica Italiana , El Kenawy , Soil Properties , National Center , University Of Padua , Atmospheric Research Staff Editor , National Climatic Data Center ,

Skillful prediction of summer rainfall in the Tibetan Plateau on multiyear time scales

Skillful near-term climate predictions of rainfall over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the Asian water tower, benefit billions of people. On the basis of the state-of-the-art decadal prediction models, we showed evidence that although the raw model outputs show low predicted ability for the summer Inner TP (ITP) rainfall due to low signal-to-noise ratios in models, we can produce realistic predictions by extracting the predictable signal from large ensemble predictions along with a postprocessing procedure of variance adjustment. The results indicate that the summer ITP rainfall is highly predictable on multiyear time scales. The predictability of ITP rainfall originates from the Silk Road pattern driven by sea surface temperature over the subpolar gyre region in North Atlantic. Real-time forecasts suggest that the ITP will become wetter, with 12.8% increase in rainfall during 2020–2027 relative to 1986–2005. Our results will help the water resources management in the surrounding region ....

Yellow River , China General , Yangtze River , Tibetan Plateau , Atlantic Ocean , Indian Ocean , National Natural Science Foundation Of China , Chinese Academy Of Sciences , Silk Road , Ganges River , Asian Water , Coupled Model Intercomparison Project , Representative Concentration Pathway , North Atlantic Ocean , Southern Ocean , Qiang Tang Plateau , Climate Prediction Project , Water Resources , Global Precipitation Climatology Project , Reanalysis Project , Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature , Shared Socioeconomic Pathways , Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial , World Climate Research Programme , Working Group , Coupled Modeling ,