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The US has the cudgel of the American dollar to prevent its expulsion from Iraq, but will the Biden administration use it?

An attack by the IRGC on the house of a Kurdish businessman in Erbil raised questions among the Kurdistan Democratic Party, led by Masoud Barzani, about Iran’s message and purpose. The bombing, which Iran said was aimed at “eliminating a target” who was “spying for Israel,” is interpreted differently by allied and competing forces in Iraq. But the context links Iran’s ballistic missiles to a “multi-purpose message.”

Iran’s relentless pressure on the US, via Arab proxies across the Middle East, has been mounting for some time, but intensified since the 7 October war in Gaza and may escalate after the latest attack on the Houthis in Yemen. While the Houthis have been firing drones and missiles at ships and installations of US-allies, the Iraqi pro-Iranian armed groups, known as Fasail Al-Muqawama Al-Islamiya, have launched more than 120 attacks directly at US forces in both Iraq and Syria.

U.S. officials ritualistically tout their respect for Iraq’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, but every U.S. president over the last three decades has bombed Iraq in some way.

Iraq’s prime minister called for an end to US presence after a drone strike killed a senior militia leader.