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General petraeus a chance to succeed. >> there i agree with you. i don't understand what is gained by beginning the withdrawal now as opposed to july -- >> but i really am skeptical about counterinsurgency in afghanistan. i mean, i think in the mind of petraeus and his whole staff is exactly your point, iraq. that's where petraeus had his great success with the surge. it's become a cliche that afghanistan is not iraq, but somehow it's a cliche that no one seems to absorb and take the meaning of. they are completely different countries. in iraq it wasn't just counterinsurgency with combat outpo...

And the president would have to say these are risks we have to take because the alternative isn't working. it's very hard to imagine a president telling the public that. >> we're not going to know for sure the answer to those questions two, three, four, five years from now, so long as the taliban enjoy a sanctuary in pakistan, so long as the taliban continue to be the taliban. the challenge of making enduring improvements in afghanistan i actually think is a bridge too far. and again, i'm not talking about withdrawal. essentially, we would be doing things in afghanistan not that different than...

Counterterrorist posture or a full withdrawal. and you know, not a few months ago the foreign minister of pakistan, i asked him how would you feel about an american withdrawal, and he was absolutely incredulous. he was incredulous first of all that we would make this investment and then leave just like that. he was incredulous in terms of what it would do to american prestige in the region. and he also pointed out that pakistan would have to reassess its own options. you know, in the last year or 18 months pakistan has actually made something of a genuine effort to turn back the talibanization...

Proportion all wrong. isn't that partly because we're there and once combat troops are off that border and are out of eastern and southern afghanistan the chances of them moving in are pretty good? >> i think you have to think very carefully about the scenarios that play out in the event of an american withdrawal either to a kind of counterterrorist posture or a full withdrawal. and you know, not a few months ago the foreign minister of pakistan, i asked him how would you feel about an american withdrawal, and he was absolutely incredulous. he was incredulous first of all that we would make th...

We don't know what the consequences of the civil war would be for the region. and we don't know, above all, whether al qaeda and the taliban networks within which in the mountains of pakistan, at least, they are deeply intertwined, whether they would then have again a pretty large safe haven. we don't know. and the president would have to say these are risks we have to take because the alternative isn't working. it's very hard to imagine a president telling the public that. >> we're not going to know for sure the answer to those questions two, three, four, five years from now, so long as the t...