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Our data guru analyzed polling going back to 2010 to help us understand this trend. education is a key measure. in 2010, 41% of college graduates called themselves republican, while 39% called themselves democrats. a six-point jump, that's a big swing overall. democrats now have the edge with college educated voters. republicans have seen a five-point jump with that group while democrats have seen a five-point drop. also a pretty significant swing. this education gap follows some geographic trends that we've been following that help us explain why some of the republican districts have the high...

Through the affordable care act and my colleague, dante chinny our data guru at nbc indicate that many of those people voted for donald trump in a big-league way. let's start with grundy county, iowa. it's seen a 50% drop in those without health insurance since president obama was elected in 2014. that's well above the national average. that's a 20 percentage point drop and they voted for trump by a whopping 39 points in november and this is a pattern that holds across other kinds of counties that were trump strong holds, as well. the sparsely populated aging community of luce county, michigan...

Data download time. replacing obamacare, but there's been a lot more emphasis on replace than we've heard in the past. more than 20 million americans now have health insurance through the affordable care act and my colleague, dante chinny our data guru at nbc indicate that many of those people voted for donald trump in a big-league way. let's start with grundy county, iowa. it's seen a 50% drop in those without health insurance since president obama was elected in 2014. that's well above the national average. that's a 20 percentage point drop and they voted for trump by a whopping 39 points in...

And we'll see how the story moves forward. real quick, howard, a name keeps coming up and talk about it like everybody should know this name, nate silver. he is a big name when it comes to numbers. you will be taking a look at who he is and some of the battles he is confronting, tell us a little bit about that. >> he is a data guru and made necessary name and worked for "new york times" and predicted in the 2012 election, obama palm had overwhelming victory and liberals loved him. he moved to es spend and said the republicans have 60% chance of capturing senate. democratic senate committee is ...

Support in rural america. the lack of turn out for democrats was big and that turn out of rural america for turn out was huge too. and 10 million short in 2008. that matters. take a look at wisconsin. romney lost to obama in wisconsin by nearly seven points. i am joined by the "wall street journal" polling duo. republican pollster of public opinion strategies and our data guru both at nbc and the "wall street journal." welcome. so the word is the pollsters got