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Predicting the economy is close to impossible. But we have fun trying. Welcome to the 22nd Derby of Economic Forecasting Talent, or DEFT for short. Contestants must predict six economic variables for the calendar year in progress. You can play. The winner will get a trophy, plaque or certificate. Plus,
“Think of the economy as a big exuberant dog that jumps up on people,” my father said to me long ago, “and think of the Fed as a man with a rolled up newspaper.” The man taps the dog lightly to get it to stop jumping, but that has no
They never see it coming. By “they,” I mean almost everyone. By “it,” I mean a surprise in the economy. As evidence, consider my annual Derby of Economic Forecasting Talent (DEFT), which has just concluded its 19th year. Inflation in 2021 heated up to 7%. Not a single one of