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Question: What factors will swing the war decisively in Ukraine's favor? Answer: One very simple conclusion that can be made from the last year of the war is that large-scale offensive operations have gotten a lot harder to do successfully for both sides than a year ago, and they are likely to only get harder. Beyond this counteroffensive, both sides will look to take the upper hand in a war of attrition, to degrade the enemy more than they themselves are degraded so that they can attack again with more relative strength at some point.

One sunny day in eastern Ukraine, two grown men in pixel camouflage sit together in the shade of lush summer bushes on the edge of a field, playing what looks to be a highly immersive virtual reality video game. Fourty-four-year-old Yegor “Yeti,” wearing futuristic first-person goggles and holding a controller with a relaxed grip, soars over apple green fields, saturated with shell holes, towards his target. Beside him, Yegor’s spotter watches the live stream silently on two screens.