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MSNBC Morning Joe July 6, 2024

nevada, you have up and down the ballot some election deniers there, same goes for arizona. a lot at stake out west and across the country. nobody s going to sleep on the west coast tonight, back east, because, man, some of the most important races taking place. control of congress is up for grabs. republicans are favored to win the house, where they need a net gain of five seats. the smallest number of seats the out of power party has needed to flip the house since 1932. michael, let s put perspective on this again for our friends joining us on the west coast right now. in 2010, how many seats we picked up 63 house seats, which was the most the party picked up since 1928. and that was after barack obama had a massive landslide victory. right. bill clinton won in 92. 73 republicans get elected that year. and in 2018, you actually had, when donald trump was president, democrats didn t do quite as well, but they had 40 seats. so it s going to be really in ....

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MSNBC Morning Joe July 7, 2024

come in and supply ukraine with so much money, and so many weapons. but this is a significant escalation from vladimir putin. the fact that he s calling up the reservists shows that he has no intention of backing away from this war. in fact, in his comments, he framed the war not against ukraine, he described this as a war against the west. and that the west, he didn t mention the united states, but clearly, that s the main power he s referring to, has been propping up ukraine and intends to bring down russia and bring down the russian federation the same way that the west primarily the united states, toppled the soviet union. so he is framing this very much as an existential fight for russia. and in order to fight this fight, he s calling up the reservists and making nuclear threats to show that he is serious and that he has no intention of backing down. so, richard, is there a sense this could lead to some sort of nuclear standoff? i think that is where this is he ....

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MSNBC Morning Joe June 4, 2024 14:18:00

What is it about this cycle that has made it even more unpredictable? i mean, because voters everyone is sitting there saying the polls are this or that. but at the end of the day, the voters have been sending i think an interesting signal when it comes to the democracy question, which was number six on your bingo card six weeks ago, eight weeks ago, now number one. the economy for sure. what are the dynamics that you think that make tonight that much more opportunistic for democrats, if you will, or even for republicans? well, governor, the fact of the matter is when you have this turnout apparently the highest since 1912 since women gained the right to vote, when you have this kind of turnout it would make any i m not an election predictor, but it would make anybody skittish about such certain assumptions. that s the first trademark of this that i see going into ....

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MSNBC Morning Joe June 4, 2024 14:17:00

Expression of democracy at least. apparently they re going to be voting the early vote, i don t know what they extrapolate from that. i don t know if anybody else does. but 2018 was historically high and this is on pace to be higher, which may throw all the polls off. james, what are you looking at tonight? we don t want to make any wild guesses, but informed ones. what do you expect to see, house and senate? well, i don t know, to be honest with you. i m not an election predictor. but i m going to be just like y all, looking at new hampshire, obviously. probably maine too. virginia 7, virginia 2. we ll get an early sense of direction. michael steele. in from one crusty old paw to another, you and i have been in green rooms and campaigns over the years. ....

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MSNBC Morning Joe June 4, 2024 13:31:00

Latest survey from politico and morning consult shows 46% of voters say that they would vote for the democratic candidate on the ballot, if the election were held today. 41% say that they would vote republican. this lead for the democrats has grown since march, but our next guest is looking into one little-known election predictor that he says should worry democrats. joining us now, columnist and data analyst for the washington post, david byler. dave, what is this predictor that you are focused on. right, so it s a really simple predictor. it s just primary turnout. if you total up the number of people who voted in republican primaries and the number of people who voted in democratic primaries and you see who won, you see the republicans have about a 4 or 5-point advantage in this metric. and i think that might mean something. because the last two times republicans won on this metric were 2010 and 2014 and in those ....

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