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League Avg.: 8.5 Happ is hitting the ball with average exit velocity nearly 2 full MPH higher than the league average, every other ball in play he has hit has qualified as “hard,” and he’s barreling it up 30% more than the league average hitter. I know a portion of you hate stuff like this, so I’m sorry, but that’s not nothing. Based on those numbers, as well as his sprint speed, Statcast has Happ’s expected batting average for the season at .226 which is 59(!) points higher than his actual .167 batting average. And his expected slugging at .428, a whopping 206(!) points higher than his actual slugging percentage. Point being, his .167/.338/.222 slash line should probably look more like .226/.397/.428 (.360 xwOBA), which would put him somewhere between Luis Robert and Alex Verdugo in the 130-140 wRC+ range. ....
April 14, 2021 Last week, Justin Choi published an examination of the new ball. The results were well, you should read it for yourself, but they were muddled, to say the least. Home runs are down! Exit velocity is up! Liners got better, fly balls got worse. It’s enough to make you wonder whether we’ll ever know the answer. It’s also catnip to analysts, and so today I’d like to present some supplemental evidence that only makes me more confused. There were two key conflicting findings in Justin’s research. First: home runs are down, and fly balls aren’t carrying as far, on average, as they did last year. Second, overall exit velocity is up league-wide, whether you care about broad averages or the hardest-struck balls. The two effects harder hits, less carry benefit line drives over fly balls, because line drives both spend less time in the air and depend less on distance for their value. ....