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Q&A: How scientists tackle the challenges of estimating wildfire CO2 emissions

Q&A: How scientists tackle the challenges of estimating wildfire CO2 emissions
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University Of Alaska Fairbanks , United States , United Kingdom , Yosemite National Park , Fort Mcmurray , Matthew Hurteau , Marcia Macedo , Wim Wiskerke Alamy , Bo Zheng , Peter Frumhoff , Los Angeles , Scott Stephens , Louis Giglio , Matthew Jones , Orjan Ellingvag , Morgan Varner , David Bowman , Amy Cardinal Christianson , Orjan Ellingvag Alamy , Jed Kaplan , Giulianaa Viglione , Stijn Hantson , Andrew Hudak , Werner Kurz , University Of Leicester , Woodwell Climate Research Center ,

Climate warming increases extreme daily wildfire growth risk in California

California has experienced enhanced extreme wildfire behaviour in recent years1–3, leading to substantial loss of life and property4,5. Some portion of the change in wildfire behaviour is attributable to anthropogenic climate warming, but formally quantifying this contribution is difficult because of numerous confounding factors6,7 and because wildfires are below the grid scale of global climate models. Here we use machine learning to quantify empirical relationships between temperature (as well as the influence of temperature on aridity) and the risk of extreme daily wildfire growth (>10,000 acres) in California and find that the influence of temperature on the risk is primarily mediated through its influence on fuel moisture. We use the uncovered relationships to estimate the changes in extreme daily wildfire growth risk under anthropogenic warming by subjecting historical fires from 2003 to 2020 to differing background climatological temperatures and aridity conditions. ....

United States , United Kingdom , Artificial Neural Networks , Contribution Of Working Group , Us Department Of Agriculture , Forest Service , Large California , Earth Environ , Climate Change , Physical Science , Sixth Assessment Report , Intergovernmental Panel , Hazards Earth , Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project , Model Dev , Earths Future , Artificial Neural , Hazards Risk , Extreme Fire Behavior , Fire Behavior Specialists , General Technical Report , Pacific Northwest Research Station , Fifth Assessment Report , Change Rep ,